MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0008
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
749 AM EDT SUN APR 14 2013
 
AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN LA...SOUTHERN MS/AL...FAR WEST FL
PANHANDLE 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 141149Z - 141649Z
 
SUMMARY...CONSISTENT MODEL SIGNAL FOR FLASH FLOOD THREAT NORTH OF
850 MB WARM FRONT THIS MORNING.

DISCUSSION...WITH APPROACH OF MID LEVEL TROUGH DURING FAVORABLE
LOW LEVEL JET CYCLE...THE ENVIRONMENT NEAR/SOUTH OF 850 MB WARM
FRONT WAS BECOMING INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR DEEP UPRIGHT
CONVECTION / SEE RECENT SEVERE WARNINGS IN SOUTHEAST LA.
MESOANALYSIS FROM THE SPC INDICATED MORE INTENSE ACTIVITY
OCCURRING WITHIN A CAPE GRADIENT ALONG AN 850 MB WARM FRONT. 

THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL BECOME FOCUSED IMMEDIATELY NORTH OF
THIS AREA WHERE COVERAGE INCREASES AND THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES
BECOME MORE SUPPORTIVE OF HEAVY RAIN RATHER THAN SEVERE WEATHER.
THIS NOTION IS SUPPORTED BY BOTH GLOBAL MODELS AND HI-RES
MODELS...SUCH AS ECMWF/SREF/HRW EAST NMM...YIELDING HIGHER
CONFIDENCE IN 2-4 INCH RAIN TOTALS TO FALL THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
OUTLINED AREA. THESE AMOUNTS MAY LOCALLY EXCEED FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE. THE AFTERNOON MAY NOT PROVE TO BE AS FAVORABLE...AS
LARGER SCALE FORCING MOVES FARTHER NORTH OF LOW LEVEL FRONTAL
ZONE...AND MODEL QPF DECREASES.

BURKE


ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...

LAT...LON   30538665 30258720 30038802 29808903 29679053 30189136
            30879149 31359079 31998874 32078806 31958724 31588677
            31268659 30568664 30538665