Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
408 AM EDT Fri Apr 10 2026
Day 1
Valid 12Z Fri Apr 10 2026 - 12Z Sat Apr 11 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...

A west-east orientated frontal boundary will be dropping southward
through the period while PW values of +2-2.5 standard deviations
advect northward across the region as the low level flow
strengthens. Meanwhile, shortwave energy pushing northeastward
into this high PW axis in the vicinity of this front will support
areas of slow moving convection along this front, locally heavy
rains and isolated runoff issues. HREF neighborhood probabilities
show 40-70% for 2 inches and 20-40 % for 3 inches of rainfall
across these areas. While areal averages are generally expected to
be less than 1.5 inches, there are signals for isolated maximums of
3-4+ inches per the latest CAM guidance. The Marginal Risk area for
excessive rainfall was maintained from the Oklahoma/Texas
Panhandles to southwest Missouri.

Campbell


Day 1 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94epoints.txt