Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
735 PM EST Thu Feb 25 2021
 
Day 1
Valid 01Z Fri Feb 26 2021 - 12Z Fri Feb 26 2021 

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less 
than 5 percent.

However, some locally moderate to heavy rainfall is possible later 
tonight around the Arklatex as an area of generally light rain 
becomes better organized. The models have been advertising good 
coupling of low level moisture and upper level divergence within 
the right entrance region of the 250mb jet, and a quick look at 
the 26/00Z upper air maps generally supports this scenario.  A 
forecast of 2" areal averaged rain is often enough to consider at 
least a Marginal risk. However, only weak instability in place 
across the area probably will not support the rainfall rates 
necessary to result in flash flooding.  Given antecedent 
conditions and near normal streamflow across the area, still do 
not believe a Marginal Risk area was warranted at this point. 

Bann

 
Day 1 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94epoints.txt