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< Day 1 Outlook Valid Through 12Z Today Day 2 Outlook >
WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook
Risk of 1 to 6 hour rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance at a point
Updated: 0034 UTC Fri Feb 26, 2021
Valid: 01 UTC Feb 26, 2021 - 12 UTC Feb 26, 2021
Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Forecast
Forecast Discussion
Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
735 PM EST Thu Feb 25 2021
Day 1
Valid 01Z Fri Feb 26 2021 - 12Z Fri Feb 26 2021 

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less 
than 5 percent.

However, some locally moderate to heavy rainfall is possible later 
tonight around the Arklatex as an area of generally light rain 
becomes better organized. The models have been advertising good 
coupling of low level moisture and upper level divergence within 
the right entrance region of the 250mb jet, and a quick look at 
the 26/00Z upper air maps generally supports this scenario.  A 
forecast of 2" areal averaged rain is often enough to consider at 
least a Marginal risk. However, only weak instability in place 
across the area probably will not support the rainfall rates 
necessary to result in flash flooding.  Given antecedent 
conditions and near normal streamflow across the area, still do 
not believe a Marginal Risk area was warranted at this point. 


Day 1 threat area:

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