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< Day 1 Outlook Valid Through 12Z Today
Day 2 Outlook >
WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook Risk of 1 to 6 hour rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance at a point
Updated: 0034 UTC Fri Feb 26, 2021
Valid: 01 UTC Feb 26, 2021 - 12 UTC Feb 26, 2021
Forecast Discussion
Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
735 PM EST Thu Feb 25 2021
Day 1
Valid 01Z Fri Feb 26 2021 - 12Z Fri Feb 26 2021
The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.
However, some locally moderate to heavy rainfall is possible later
tonight around the Arklatex as an area of generally light rain
becomes better organized. The models have been advertising good
coupling of low level moisture and upper level divergence within
the right entrance region of the 250mb jet, and a quick look at
the 26/00Z upper air maps generally supports this scenario. A
forecast of 2" areal averaged rain is often enough to consider at
least a Marginal risk. However, only weak instability in place
across the area probably will not support the rainfall rates
necessary to result in flash flooding. Given antecedent
conditions and near normal streamflow across the area, still do
not believe a Marginal Risk area was warranted at this point.
Bann
Day 1 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94epoints.txt
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