Ensemble forecasting
•Another way to assess probabilities for various
thresholds.
–Provides a method to take into account the
predictability of the pattern.
•Need to perturb initial conditions and model
physics.
–You assume each member has equal skill
• this might be an
incorrect assumption, if you are not careful how you perturb the physics.
Verification of threat scores for various models
Would these make a good ensemble suite??????? If not,
which should be removed?
25 mm
50 mm
12.5 mm