•point probabilities may not always make sense. Point probabilities will always be very low, possibly too low for emergency managers to act.
–Other methods
need to be explored.
•One possibility- develop
probabilities of various thresholds within a circle of some radius.
Such forecasts might be useful to emergency managers helping them decide when to put their staffs on
alert
–Ensemble forecasts, combined with statistical methods might be able to provide such probabilities and might be used to
determine the size of the
circle. or
–A single
non-hydrostatic model run might provide enough guidance to develop such probabilities if the radius of the
circle is based on error
characteristics of the model.
»The phase error
helps determine size of circle.
»the magnitude of the precipitation forecast be used to help determine probabilities of occurrence within the
circle for various thresholds.