QPF verification
Why verification is so important
Verification methods
Subjective Verification
HPC 24-h QPF Verification 30+ years of deterministic forecasts
HPC verification (Cont.)
THREAT SCORE
HPC 06 hr QPF Verification
What can you learn from verification?
What can you learn about a model or man
How Good are the Forecasts?
How Good Are the Forecasts?
Forecast Verification Strategy
PPT Slide
Objective and subjective verification suggests that some patterns are more predictable than others.
A perfect threat score is 1.00. Forecasts are slowly improving but we have a long way to go before we even get good at forecasting precipitation amounts.
Conclusions
References for verification
Email: njunker@ncep.noaa.gov
Home Page: http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/research/res2.html
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