MEDIUM RANGE FORECASTING
AN HPC METHODOLOGY

MICHAEL SCHICHTEL

NWS/NCEP/HPC
CAMP SPRINGS, MARYLAND

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
NATIONAL CENTERS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL PREDICTION
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER



2/11/00


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Table of Contents

MEDIUM RANGE FORECASTING AN HPC METHODOLOGY MICHAEL SCHICHTEL NWS/NCEP/HPC CAMP SPRINGS, MARYLAND NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NATIONAL CENTERS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL PREDICTION HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER

WE ARE OPERATIONAL FORECASTERS CO-LOCATED WITH COMPUTER MODELERS

HPC’S MEDIUM RANGE DESK

12 STEP METHODOLOGY OUTLINE

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MAJOR 1998-2000 MRF CHANGES

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THE MAIN REASONS WHY MODELS HAVE FORECAST PROBLEMS

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DISCLAIMER!!! THE PAST SLIDES HAVE DEPICTED BACKGROUND INFORMATION NEEDED FOR MEDIUM RANGE FORECASTING. YOU MUST DO YOUR HOMEWORK BEFORE TRYING TO MAKE A FORECAST.

MEDIUM RANGE SATELLITE IMAGERY?

DAY 3 MRF/UKMET VS ECMWF/NOGAPS

THE CANADIAN MODEL AT WWW.CMC.EC.GC.CA

MRF/ECMWF/UKMET/NOGAPS 500 MB DAY 4

MRF VS ECMWF DAY 4 PMSL FORECASTS

OPERATIONAL MRF 108-132 HOUR QPF

DO TODAY’S MODEL FORECASTS HAVE GOOD RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY?

ENSEMBLE FORECASTING

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THE MRF 250MB 60HR JET FORECAST SUGGESTS MRF 500MB PLAINS SHORTWAVE DIGGING IS UNDERDONE

MRF AND ECMWF 500 MB VS ETA AND NGM 500 MB

BIG CHANGES: 00 UTC MRF VS 12 UTC AVN

VERIFICATION SECTION: 72 HR MRF 500 MB FORECAST VS OBSERVED

120HR ECMWF 500MB HEIGHTS VS OBS

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EXAMPLE OF MRF 5-DAY MEAN 500 MB HEIGHT FORECAST

CONSIDER THE CLIMATIC PATTERN TO IDENTIFY PREFERRED STORM TRACKS

EXAMPLES OF ENSEMBLES

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EXAMPLE OF CANADIAN ENSEMBLES

EXAMPLE OF THE 12 UTC AVN-EXT

% OF MOS DAY 6 MIN TEMP ERRORS 10F+

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CONCLUSIONS

Author: Mike Schichtel

Email: mschichtel@ncep.noaa.gov

Home Page: http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/research/res2.html

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