Why models have forecast problems
Initialization and quality control smooth data fields, but some of the lost detail may be important.
Lack of data over the oceans and Mexico.
Atmospheric processes are non-linear; small changes in initial conditions can lead to large forecast variations (this is the basis for ensemble forecasting).
Model physics are approximations
- for lower resolution models, convection is parameterized
- for higher resolution models the micro-physical processes are parameterized