ETA MODEL HAS PROBLEMS PREDICTING THE STABILITY.

WHEN SOIL MOISTURE IS HIGH, THE ETA DEWPOINTS ARE TOO HIGH AND LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE TOO LOW.

FORECAST

OBSERVED

HIGH SOIL MOISTURE CASE

THE ETA FORECAST CAPE=1177, LI=-4

OBSERVED CAPE=5, LI=2

THIS SOMETIMES CAUSES THE MODEL TO BE TOO UNSTABLE

Previous slide

Next slide

Back to first slide

View graphic version