An Application of Pattern Recognition to Medium Range Forecasting

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Contents

  1. Slide 1

  2. How Might I begin the Forecast Process ?

  3. It is easy to get lost in the details...unless we keep in mind the BIG PICTURE !

  4. Main Objectives

  5. What is a D-3, D+0, or D+3 Mean?

  6. How representative are D-3, D+0, D+3, D+5, and D+8 charts in depicting the longwave pattern ?

  7. How do I begin to interpret a D+3, D+5, or D+8 chart using a D-3 chart?

  8. General application of D+3 means

  9. More Complex Application of d+3's

  10. How can I access Mean 500 mb patterns on the internet?

  11. A Case Study of Pattern Recognition and Related MRF/ECMWF Errors

  12. Slide 12

  13. Slide 13

  14. Slide 14

  15. Slide 15

  16. Question 1.

  17. Slide 17

  18. Slide 18

  19. Slide 19

  20. May 18: Errors in Flattening Pattern

  21. May 19: More Progressive Pattern Errors

  22. May 20: Continued Progressive Pattern Errors

  23. Question 2

  24. Slide 24

  25. Slide 25

  26. Error pattern consistency

  27. May 23: Gulf of Alaska Low Deepening

  28. May 24: Downstream Amplification

  29. May 25: Models' Response too late. Pacific Deamplification already begun

  30. Question 3

  31. May 28: More Deamplification Errors

  32. May 29: Pattern Progressive over N. America, but beginning to Amplify in Eastern Pacific

  33. Question 4

  34. Now that we've looked at a few longwave pattern changes we might begin to answer why...

  35. Other important Considerations

  36. How important is the 12 hour difference in run time between the ECMWF and MRF?

  37. How do I adjust MOS in a regime of High Uncertainty?

  38. How do I adjust MOS in a period of higher than average certainty ?

  39. Well, How did we do (in achieving the Main Objectives ?)

  40. Conclusion of : An Application of Pattern Recognition to Medium Range Forecasting

  41. Slide 41

  42. Slide 42

  43. Slide 43

  44. Slide 44

  45. Slide 45

  46. May 29: Pattern Progessive over N. America, but beginning to Amplify in Eastern Pacific

  47. May 31: Problems with handling of Eastern Pacific Ridge

  48. June 2: Eastern Pacific Upper Ridge still a key Player

  49. June 3: MRF/ECMWF underestimate Downstream digging along W Coast

  50. June 4: Models on to CA sys, but MRF keeps EPAC ridge too strong

  51. June 12: Extreme Amplification in the Eastern Pacific...but the MRF/ECMWF

  52. June 13: Models miss new system in the Wrn Gulf of Alaska

  53. Question 1

  54. Question 2

  55. May 23: Gulf of Alaska Low Deepening

  56. May 24: Downstream Amplification

  57. May 25: Models' Response too late. Pacific Deamplification already begun

  58. Slide 58

  59. Slide 59

  60. Slide 60

  61. Slide 61

  62. Cyclonic Patterns in the Gulf of Alaska can be quite challenging too!

  63. Question 3:

  64. Conclusion of Western CONUS Reviews


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Last updated:
January 08, 2001 (Monday)

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