Storm Summary Number 3 for Southwest and Southern Plains Heavy Rain
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1000 PM CDT Fri Sep 21 2018

...Widespread heavy rain and flash flooding are occurring in parts
of the Southern Plains...

Flood and Flash Flood Warnings, Watches, and Advisories are in
effect for portions of the Southern Plains and into Arkansas.

For a detailed graphical depiction of the latest watches, warnings
and advisories, please see www.weather.gov

At 900 PM CDT...Pacific moisture associated with former Tropical
Depression 19-E as well as moisture from the Gulf of Mexico
combined to create an impressive moisture plume making its way
into the Southern Plains. At the surface, a low pressure system
with a central pressure of 1010 mb or 29.83 inches was located
about 65 miles east-northeast of Abilene, Texas. From this low, a
slow-moving cold front stretched south and westward through West
Texas, while a stationary front extended through far southwestern
Oklahoma and attached to a cold front moving through the Ohio and
Mississippi Valleys. A secondary cold front with drier air behind
it was located in the Middle Mississippi Valley and into central
Oklahoma. National Weather Service radars and surface observations
indicated that moderate to heavy rain and thunderstorms were
widespread throughout eastern Oklahoma, northern Texas, and much
of Arkansas. Scattered thunderstorms were located in central and
eastern Texas, as well as into parts of Louisiana.

...Selected preliminary Storm Total Rainfall in inches from 700 AM
CDT Wed Sep 19 through 900 PM CDT Fri Sep 21...

...ARKANSAS...
FORT SMITH RGNL ARPT                  3.90                    
DEXTER B FLORENCE MEM FIELD           3.34                    
RUSSELVILLE MUNI ARPT                 2.22                    

...OKLAHOMA...
STONEWALL 6 S                        15.50                    
FITTSTOWN                            13.82                    
CENTRAHOMA                            9.25                    
ADA                                   6.82                    
TISHOMINGO                            6.62                    
TALIHINA                              6.60                    
RINGLING                              6.45                    
SULPHUR                               6.42                    
DUNCAN-HALLIBURTON FIELD ARPT         5.79                    
WAURIKA                               5.70                    
CHANDLER                              5.49                    
WICHITA                               5.48                    
OKLAHOMA CITY-WILEY POST ARPT         3.67                    

...TEXAS...
WEINERT 2 NNE                         4.46                    
KNOX CITY 3 NW                        4.23                    
HASKELL 1 NW                          4.16                    
SWEETWATER                            3.75                    
QUITAQUE 3 NNW-CAPROCK CANYONS ST     3.72                    
BIG LAKE 1 WNW                        3.66                    
GRAHAM 5 SSW (MACY RANCH)             3.58                    
DECATUR MUNI ARPT                     3.52                    
COPE RANCH CO-OP                      3.50                    
MERTZON 3 NNE                         3.24                    
WICHITA FALLS-SHEPPARD AFB            2.89                    

...Selected preliminary Storm Total Rainfall in inches where the
event has ended...

...ARIZONA...
GREEN VALLEY 3.7 NE                   3.90                    
AMADO 1.65 N                          3.40                    
SAHUARITA 3.5 SW                      3.35                    
ALTAR WASH AT SR 286                  3.31                    
CIENEGA CREEK AT I-1                  2.91                    
ORO VALLEY 5.8 N                      2.32                    
VAIL 8.6 SSE                          2.29                    
BENDER SPRINGS                        2.05                    

...NEW MEXICO...
SUNSPOT 0.2 SSW                       3.09                    
TULAROSA 1.0 E                        2.86                    
SIERRA BLANCA                         2.80                    
LORDSBURG 10.1 WNW (ADOBE)            2.75                    
CLOUDCROFT 1.8 SW                     2.74                    
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES MUNI ARPT       2.52                    
RUIDOSO 2.9 SW                        2.30                    
LAS CRUCES 5.8 WNW                    2.13                    
ALBUQUERQUE 8 ESE                     1.40                    


The low pressure system and associated fronts are forecast to move
slowly southeastward through Texas over the next couple of days.
The slow movement will cause heavy rain to continue in the
Southern Plains through Sunday, with rainfall totals of 6 to 10
inches over northern Texas and southern Oklahoma in particular,
with local amounts in the 15-20 inch range possible. This would be
similar to other tropical cyclone remnant-related events from
Norma 1981 with 18.71 inches at Kingston 4 SSE OK...Tico 1983 with
16.95 inches at Chickasha OK... and similar heavy rain events from
September 28-October 2, 1927 with 14.59 inches at Dutton AR...
October 19-24, 1908 with 16.23 inches at Meaker OK...and October
11, 1973 with 15.68 inches at Enid OK. There is a HIGH RISK of
excessive rainfall/flash flooding in parts of Oklahoma and Texas,
as well as west-central Arkansas through Saturday morning. As the
moisture plume spreads eastward, parts of the Lower Mississippi
Valley are expecting heavy rain of 3 to 5 inches, with locally
higher amounts, through the weekend.

The next storm summary will be issued by the Weather Prediction
Center at 400 AM CDT. Please refer to your local National Weather
Service office for additional information on this event.

Snell