Storm Summary Number 4 for Southwest to Lower Mississippi Valley
Heavy Rain
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 AM CDT Sat Sep 22 2018

...Widespread heavy rain and flash flooding are occurring in parts
of the Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley...

Flood and Flash Flood Warnings, Watches, and Advisories are in
effect for portions of the Southern Plains and into Arkansas.

For a detailed graphical depiction of the latest watches, warnings
and advisories, please see www.weather.gov

At 300 AM CDT...Pacific moisture associated with former Tropical
Depression 19-E as well as moisture from the Gulf of Mexico
combined to create an impressive moisture plume making its way
through the Southern Plains. At the surface, a low pressure system
with a central pressure of 1010 mb or 29.83 inches was located
about 40 miles southwest of Dallas, Texas. From this low, a
slow-moving cold front stretched south and westward through
central Texas, while a stationary front extended through
northeastern Texas into Arkansas and attached to a cold front
moving through the Ohio and Lower Mississippi Valleys. National
Weather Service radars and surface observations indicated that
moderate to heavy rain and thunderstorms were widespread
throughout southeastern Oklahoma, central and northern Texas, and
much of Arkansas. Scattered thunderstorms were located in eastern
Texas into western Louisiana, as well as parts of Kentucky and
Tennessee.

...Selected preliminary Storm Total Rainfall in inches from 700 AM
CDT Wed Sep 19 through 300 AM CDT Sat Sep 22...

...ARKANSAS...
FORT SMITH RGNL ARPT                  4.88                    
DEXTER B FLORENCE MEM FIELD           3.43                    
CABOT                                 3.15                    
RUSSELVILLE MUNI ARPT                 2.79                    
PINE BLUFF-GRIDER FIELD ARPT          2.76                    

...OKLAHOMA...
STONEWALL 6 S                        15.50                    
FITTSTOWN                            14.34                    
CENTRAHOMA                            9.73                    
TALIHINA                              8.50                    
ADA                                   8.03                    
TISHOMINGO                            7.21                    
SULPHUR                               6.67                    
RINGLING                              6.45                    
DUNCAN-HALLIBURTON FIELD ARPT         5.80                    
WISTER                                5.80                    
WAURIKA                               5.74                    
CHANDLER                              5.51                    
WICHITA                               5.48                    
OKLAHOMA CITY-WILEY POST ARPT         3.67                    
TULSA-JONES JR ARPT                   3.43                    

...TENNESSEE...
ELLINGTON ARPT                        2.54                    
JACKSON/MCKELLAR-SIPES RGNL ARPT      2.10                    

...TEXAS...
JONES FIELD-BONHAM                    7.82                    
DALLAS/FORT WORTH INTL ARPT           7.56                    
MCKINNEY NATL ARPT                    6.02                    
WEINERT 2 NNE                         4.48                    
KNOX CITY 3 NW                        4.23                    
HASKELL 1 NW                          4.18                    
DECATUR MUNI ARPT                     4.03                    
SWEETWATER                            3.75                    
QUITAQUE 3 NNW-CAPROCK CANYONS ST     3.72                    
BIG LAKE 1 WNW                        3.66                    
GRAHAM 5 SSW (MACY RANCH)             3.58                    
COPE RANCH CO-OP                      3.50                    
MERTZON 3 NNE                         3.24                    
WICHITA FALLS-SHEPPARD AFB            2.93                    

...Selected preliminary Storm Total Rainfall in inches where the
event has ended...

...ARIZONA...
GREEN VALLEY 3.7 NE                   3.90                    
AMADO 1.65 N                          3.40                    
SAHUARITA 3.5 SW                      3.35                    
ALTAR WASH AT SR 286                  3.31                    
CIENEGA CREEK AT I-1                  2.91                    
ORO VALLEY 5.8 N                      2.32                    
VAIL 8.6 SSE                          2.29                    
BENDER SPRINGS                        2.05                    

...NEW MEXICO...
SUNSPOT 0.2 SSW                       3.09                    
TULAROSA 1.0 E                        2.86                    
SIERRA BLANCA                         2.80                    
LORDSBURG 10.1 WNW (ADOBE)            2.75                    
CLOUDCROFT 1.8 SW                     2.74                    
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES MUNI ARPT       2.52                    
RUIDOSO 2.9 SW                        2.30                    
LAS CRUCES 5.8 WNW                    2.13                    
ALBUQUERQUE 8 ESE                     1.40                    


The low pressure system and associated fronts are forecast to move
slowly southeastward through Texas over the next couple of days.
The slow movement will cause heavy rain to continue in the
Southern Plains through Sunday, with rainfall totals of 6 to 10
inches over northern Texas and southern Oklahoma in particular,
with local amounts in the 15-20 inch range possible. This would be
similar to other tropical cyclone remnant-related events from
Norma 1981 with 18.71 inches at Kingston 4 SSE OK...Tico 1983 with
16.95 inches at Chickasha OK... and similar heavy rain events from
September 28-October 2, 1927 with 14.59 inches at Dutton AR...
October 19-24, 1908 with 16.23 inches at Meaker OK...and October
11, 1973 with 15.68 inches at Enid OK. There is a HIGH RISK of
excessive rainfall/flash flooding in parts of Oklahoma and Texas,
as well as west-central Arkansas through Saturday morning. For the
rest of Saturday into Sunday morning, a MODERATE RISK is in effect
for southeastern Oklahoma and west-central Arkansas. As the
moisture plume continues to spread eastward, parts of the Lower
Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys are expecting heavy rain of 3 to
5 inches, with locally higher amounts, through the weekend.

The next storm summary will be issued by the Weather Prediction
Center at 1000 AM CDT. Please refer to your local National Weather
Service office for additional information on this event.

Snell