EMC/HPC/MPC/NCO/CPC Synergy Meeting Highlights 03/31/03

This meeting was led by Peter Manousos and was attended by Larry Burroughs, Regina Nichols, HuaLu Pan, Pete Caplan, Zoltan Toth, Tom Black, John Ward, Dave Michaud, Bill Bua, Jim Hoke, Ed Danaher, Dave Feit, Stephen Jascourt, and Keith Brill.

1. IBM SP and CCS

John Ward reported that although the IBM SP continues to run smoothly, the 30 day operational ready test of the CCS has continually run into stability problems. This has pushed the April 15^th date of operational declaration back to at least May 1^st. This means changes made to any modeling systems will not be implemented until at least that date. However, the code moratorium could be lifted for items that don’t require more computer resources than the current operational suite because they could be implemented on the old IBM SP instead of waiting for the new machine to become stable. Specifically, this would allow sooner implementation for the Eta change package without posting the extra outputs and for initial perturbation amplitude improvements in the global ensembles. A meeting will be held tomorrow [April 1] to determine whether this is feasible.

2. Notes from EMC

a. Global Modeling Group: Hua-Lu Pan reported that the parallel version of the GFS (GFSx) has been running on the CCS and incorporates the rapid radiative transfer model (RRTM). The GFSx has exhibited very little difference in solution as compared to the operational GFS, however the RRTM model does partially mitigate the tropospheric cold bias present in the operational version.

b. Mesoscale Modeling Group: Tom Black reported that the spring implementation of the Eta will be implemented after the CCS is declared operational. Also, the 8km NMM will be running within the WRF infrastructure by the end of September 2003.

c. Global Ensembles: Zoltan Toth reported that the 4x daily 10 member configuration will be implemented after the CCS is declared operational. There will also be some refinements to the amplitudes of the perturbations to the initial conditions (which have led to much better performance in the southern hemisphere and improved tropical storm tracks in the ensembles). Zoltan also reported that performance, production, post processing, and verification issues of a joint Canadian Meteorological Center/NCEP ensemble package will be discussed with the CMC at a conference in early May. Zoltan also added that the Winter Storm Reconnaissance Program (WSRP) ended in mid-March with a total of 20 to 25 missions. The WSRP has led to a modest but statistically significant improvement in PMSL scores, but with little notable improvement in winds at all levels. More upper level improvement had been noted in previous years.

d. Short Range Ensembles: Tom Black reported that the SREF system will be modified to include members utilizing different physics packages (including BMJ, KF, RAS &/or variations of these convective parameterizations) to create a 15 member ensemble, including both Eta and RSM members. The goal is to test it during the spring convective season in preparation for a fall implementation. Zoltan Toth reported that there has been further investigation on possible verification schemes that could be used on both the SREF and Global EPS systems.

e. Marine Modeling and Analysis Branch (MMAB): Larry Burroughs reported that the Eastern Pacific Hurricane model will be implemented when the updated version of the GFDL is implemented (pending operational declaration of the CCS). Further, the entire suite of NWW3 wave model output is being produced at 4/day. However, AWIPS bandwidth limitations is limiting access by NWS WFOs.

4. Next Meeting Proposed Monday April 28^th, 2003 at noon in room 209.