NCEP Synergy Meeting Highlights: July 15, 2013
This meeting was led by Wallace Hogsett (WPC) and attended by Keith Brill (WPC); Rebecca Cosgrove, and Chris Caruso Magee (NCO); John Derber, Eric Rogers, Geoff DiMego, and Mary Hart (EMC); Joe Sienkiewicz (OPC); Kathy Gilbert (MDL); Andy Dean (SPC); Israel Jirak (SPC); Bernard Meisner (SR); Jeff Waldstreicher and Brian Miretzky (ER); Jeff Craven (CR); John Kelly and Aiyun Zang (NOS)
1. NOTES FROM NCO (Chris Caruso Magee and Becky Cosgrove)
The new NCEP supercomputer (WCOSS) will go live on July 30 (Update: the successful transition occurred early on July 25). IBM has solved issues with the controller, and the full suite is up and running well. Runtime varies depending on system use, so delivery times may fluctuate as the transition begins. The delivery times may fluctuate by as much as 15 minutes. NCO has done some work to adjust runtimes, and overall things are running more smoothly since last meeting.
The HWRF was approved last Friday and will go live when WCOSS is turned on. HYSPLIT, including smoke, dust, and ash, will also be updated. Those are the only two upgrades at the beginning of WCOSS.
2. NOTES FROM EMC
2a. Global Climate and Weather Modeling Branch (GCWMB) (John Derber)
Things are progressing slowly. We can’t catch up the parallel to real time; we’re about a month behind and may need a new strategy to catch up. We’ll get it done as quickly as is feasible. We are planning to add the Metop-B, CrIS, and Meteosat 10 (SEVERI) satellite data to GDAS; this won’t require a full evaluation and briefing. The change will occur in mid-late August with 30-day notice.
We had to turn off NOAA-19 AVHRR on July 3rd because the instrument went bad. We don’t expect negative impacts because AIRS data provides redundancy. CrIS will provide redundancy with AIRS, which is beyond its lifetime.
Spring 2014 upgrades include GFS surface, physics, among others. WCOSS is slowing us down, as there are fewer resources on WCOSS. GFS output will be on a 1/8th degree grid, and we will skip the 0.25 degree grid. Delivery to field will be an issue. The data will be at full resolution out to 10 days, every 3 hours. We will still produce the typical grids (0.5 and 1.0 degree) as well, just not 0.25 degree.
2b. Mesoscale Modeling Branch (MMB) (Geoff DiMego)
WCOSS keeps changing, and this is handicapping development. Near term upgrades will be the RTMA, Highres window runs, and the NAM, in that order. RAP and HRRR will also occur sometime after RTMA. We probably will not do a 1.5 km RTMA for Juneau; there’s just not enough data to correct the first guess. We are meeting with SPC to discuss Highres tunings. The current plan is to create CONUS highres windows to eliminate the need for partial grids. They will be run at 00 and 12Z, with Alaska run at off times. The NMM-B will replace the NMM at 3 km, and the ARW will be 3.7 km. SPC WRF will continue. The SREF upgrade is slated for Q4 2014, around the time the new machine is installed. HRRR-E (storm-scale ensemble) should be in place by then. The SREF will be an extension of the HRRR-E, including the high-res nests. Maybe the nests go out to 60 hours, maybe 84 (probably not).
Highres Pre-emption: Between now and the high-res upgrade, NCO could increase the preemption threshold to four tropical systems for the next 6 – 9 months until high-res is implemented. Next hurricane season it will go back down to two. The alternative is to keep the pre-emption at two storms, with no temporary increase. SPC and WPC prefer the temporary increase to four, knowing that it will be reduced again to two storms next hurricane season.
2c. Marine Modeling and Analysis Branch (MMAB) (No representative)
3. NATIONAL OCEAN SERVICE (NOS, Aijun Zhang and John Kelley):
4. FEEDBACK FROM MDL/OPERATIONAL CENTERS/REGIONS
4a. MDL (Kathy Gilbert):
4b. NCEP Centers and NWS Regions
Weather Prediction Center (WPC, Wallace Hogsett):
Storm Prediction Center (SPC, Israel Jirak): No report.
National Hurricane Center (NHC, no representative): Nothing to report.
Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC, no representative):
Ocean Prediction Center (OPC, no representative): Nothing to report
Aviation Weather Center (AWC, Steve Silberberg): Nothing to report.
Pacific Region (PR, no representative):
Alaska Region (AR, no representative):
Eastern Region (ER, Jeff Waldstreicher): Nothing to report.
Western Region (WR, no representative):
Southern Region (SR, Bernard Meisner): Nothing to report.
Central Region (CR, Jeff Craven):
Central Region would like to get hourly output from the high-res windows to help with short term blending efforts (powerpoint presentation of these blending efforts is available). This would help for the first 24-36 hour forecasts. EMC makes these grids, but distribution issues exist. These could be selectively pulled from NOMADS. This effort may need regional director involvement. The regions may want to reprioritize what is put on the SBN, depending on the future priorities of the field offices.
5. NESDIS (no representative):
6. The next Synergy Meeting will be held at 2:30 pm EDT on Monday, 19 August 2013 in NCWCP conference room 2890, with remote teleconferencing capability.