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TROPICAL SUMMARY NUMBER 11 FOR T.D. "BERTHA"
NATIONAL CENTERS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL PREDICTION
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER...NWS...CAMP SPRINGS MD
10 PM CDT TUES AUG 6 2002

...T.D. BERTHA EXPECTED TO DRIFT SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT...

A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE TCHEFUNCTE RIVER NEAR
FOLSOM.

A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST
MISSISSIPPI...PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND FOR THE RIVER
AND FLORIDA PARISHES OF EAST CENTRAL LOUISIANA. THE FLOOD WATCH
COVERS THE AREA NORTH OF A LINE FROM DONALDSONVILLE TO SLIDELL IN
EAST CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND NORTH TO ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE
FROM WOODVILLE TO TYLERTOWN IN EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN
MISSISSIPPI.

AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERTHA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.3 WEST... OVER SALT
POINT LOUISIANA.

BERTHA HAS DRIFTED SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. HOWEVER...MODEL GUIDANCE AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST
THE RESUMPTION OF A  MORE SOUTHWESTERLY TRACK OVER THE NEXT 12
HOURS. THIS TRACK WOULD BRING BERTHA OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
LOUISIANA AND POSSIBLY THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS IN THE NEXT 24
HOURS. LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS EXPECTED WHILE
THE CENTER IS OVER LAND.  REFER TO THE TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
ISSUED BY THE TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER UNDER AWIPS HEADER
TWOAT AND WMO HEADER ABNT2O KNHC FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
REINTENSIFICATION  IF BERTHA REEMERGES OVER THE GULF COASTAL
WATERS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 13 MPH. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1011 MB. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED
IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS.    

THE POTENTIAL CONTINUES FOR ISOLATED AREAS OF 3 TO 5 INCH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS IN SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.  FLOODING OF STREAMS AND LOW-LYING ROADWAYS REMAINS
A THREAT AS WELL.
     
SELECTED 24 HOUR STORM RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH 7 PM CDT ARE
LISTED BELOW.

LOCATION                      AMOUNT
=========                     =======
NEW ORLEANS LAKEFRONT, LA     0.49"
NEW ORLEANS INT. ARPT., LA    1.10"
SLIDELL, LA                   0.72"
MCCOMB-PIKE COUNTY, MS        3.04"

REPEATING THE 10 PM CDT POSITION...29.6N...91.3W. MOVEMENT...DRIFTING
TO THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
13 MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB. THE NEXT TROPICAL
SUMMARY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION
CENTER AT 4 AM CDT. 

BELL/PEREIRA/FORECAST OPERATIONS BRANCH

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