PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 14 FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIN
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD AL052007
1000 PM CDT FRI AUG 17 2007        

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIN NOW MOVING TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST
ACROSS WEST TEXAS ...  FLOODING THREAT PERSISTS AS HEAVY RAINBANDS
SPIRAL AROUND CENTER...

FLASH FLOOD WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS.

FLOOD AND FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST TEXAS.

AT 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIN
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 101.8
WEST...ABOUT 25 MILES...40 KILOMETERS...EAST-NORTHEAST OF MIDLAND
TEXAS.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH...9 KT...16
KM/H. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT
12 TO 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 25 MPH...40 KM/HR...WITH A FEW
HIGHER GUSTS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS AROUND
1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.

HEAVY BANDS OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND
THE CENTER OF ERIN WITH HEAVY RAINS NEAR THE CENTER AND LINES OF
HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. 

SELECTED STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN INCHES THROUGH 1000 PM
CDT FRIDAY

...TEXAS...

HOUSTON METRO AREA

LOCKWOOD (HUNTING BAYOU) 	 9.61
SENS RD			 	 9.25
LITTLE CEDAR BAYOU @8TH ST	 8.31
SIMS BAYOU @MARTIN LUTHER KING	 7.52
SOUTH MCGREGOR WAY	 	 7.05
HOUSTON/INTERCONTINENTAL         4.73
HOUSTON/CLOVER FIELD             3.28
HOUSTON/WILL HOBBY               2.22
HOUSTON/HULL FIELD               1.12

BOERNE 5.6 NE			10.23 THRU 7 AM FRIDAY
SAN ANTONIO/STINSON MUNI ARPT	 9.62
FAIR OAKS RANCH 10 NNE		 9.62 THRU 7 AM FRIDAY
FREDERICKSBURG 10.6 SSW		 8.26 THRU 7 AM FRIDAY
LACKLAND AFB 2.4 NW		 8.07 THRU 7 AM FRIDAY
HELOTES 1 ENE			 7.94 THRU 7 AM FRIDAY
GREY FOREST 0.2 N		 7.73 THRU 7 AM FRIDAY
KERRVILLE 5.9 SE		 7.46 THRU 7 AM FRIDAY
KELLY AFB/SAN ANTONIO		 7.22
GILLESPIE                        6.55 SINCE 12 AM FRIDAY 
6 WSW BOERNE			 5.84
SAN ANTONIO INTL ARPT            5.79
BANDERA 14.3 WNW		 5.70 THRU 7 AM FRIDAY
HONDO MUNI ARPT                  5.02
MASON				 3.90 
PALACIOS MUNI ARPT               3.86
HASKELL				 3.38
RANDOLPH AFB/UNIVERSAL CITY      3.27
JUNCTION/KIMBLE CO. AIRPORT      2.99
VICTORIA RGNL ARPT               2.34
GALVESTON/SCHOLES                2.12
SAN ANGELO			 1.56
AUSTIN/MUELLER MUNI ARPT         1.39
ANGLETON/LAKE JACKSON            1.32
ABILENE REGIONAL AIRPORT	 1.21


ERIN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
WEST TEXAS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...SHIFTING THE MAIN THREAT FOR
ORGANIZED HEAVY RAINFALL NORTHWARD TOWARD NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS.

ADDITIONAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS...WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 8 INCHES ASSOCIATED WITH THE CENTER
OF THE DEPRESSION. TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE SYSTEM...LOCALIZED
AREAS COULD SEE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH 2 TO 3 INCHES
POSSIBLE.

REPEATING THE 1000 PM CDT POSITION...32.1 NORTH...AND 101.8
WEST...NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT NEAR 10 MPH...MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 25 MPH...MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007
MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIN WILL BE ISSUED BY
THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER AT 400 AM CDT SATURDAY.
PLEASE REFER TO YOUR LOCAL FORECAST OFFICE FOR FURTHER INFORMATION
CONCERNING THIS SYSTEM.
 
KOCIN

FORECAST POSITIONS

INITIAL    18/0300Z 32.1N 101.8W
12HR VT    18/1200Z 33.3N 101.3W
24HR VT    19/0000Z 34.0N 100.9W