PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 19 FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIN NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD AL052007 400 AM CDT SUN AUG 19 2007 ...T.D. ERIN IS OVER CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING... FLASH FLOOD WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR NORTHWEST TEXAS INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. FLOOD AND FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR SEVERAL COUNTIES IN SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. ERIN CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND IS SUPPORTING THUNDERSTORMS...STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. THUNDESTORM WINDS ARE GUSTING TO OVER 50 MPH ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. AT 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF ERIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 35.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 98.1 WEST...ABOUT 35 MILES WEST OF OKLAHOMA CITY OKLAHOMA.. THE DEPRESSION WAS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 25 MPH...40 KM/HR...WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 50 MPH IN THUNDERSTORMS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS AROUND 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES. HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO FORM AROUND...AND TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER OF ERIN. THE MOISTURE FROM ERIN HAS MOVED NORTHEAST INTO THE MIDWEST...OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES STATES...THEREBY INCREASING THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL IN THESE AREAS. FLOOD AND FLASH FLOOD WATCHES HAVE BEEN POSTED FOR SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...NORTHERN IOWA...SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...NORTHERN ILLINOIS...NORTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHERN OHIO. FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS ARE ALREADY IN EFFECT FOR MANY COUNTIES ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. SELECTED STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN INCHES THROUGH 100 AM CDT SUNDAY ...TEXAS... HOUSTON METRO AREA LOCKWOOD (HUNTING BAYOU) 11.02 PAST 3 DAYS SENS RD 9.33 PAST 3 DAYS LITTLE CEDAR BAYOU @8TH ST 8.50 PAST 3 DAYS SIMS BAYOU @MARTIN LUTHER KING 8.43 PAST 3 DAYS SOUTH MCGREGOR WA 7.05 HOUSTON/INTERCONTINENTAL 5.51 BOERNE 5.6 NE 10.23 THRU 7 AM SATURDAY SAN ANTONIO/STINSON MUNI ARPT 9.62 FAIR OAKS RANCH 10 NNE 9.62 THRU 7 AM SATURDAY OZONA 22 SE 9.06 48 HOURS THRU 8AM SATURDAY FREDERICKSBURG 10.6 SSW 8.26 THRU 7 AM SATURDAY LACKLAND AFB 2.4 NW 8.30 THRU 7 AM SATURDAY HELOTES 1 ENE 7.94 THRU 7 AM SATURDAY GREY FOREST 0.2 N 7.73 THRU 7 AM SATURDAY KERRVILLE 5.9 SE 7.46 THRU 7 AM SATURDAY KELLY AFB/SAN ANTONIO 7.46 HONDO 8.7E 7.33 THRU 7 AM SATURDAY EL DORADO 7.19 48 HOURS THRU 8AM SATURDAY WINTERS 6.67 THRU 7 AM SATURDAY GILLESPIE 6.55 SINCE 12 AM FRIDAY ROBERT LEE 6.34 24 HOURS THRU 8AM SATURDAY SAN ANGELO/MATHIS 5.96 6 WSW BOERNE 5.84 SAN ANTONIO INTL ARPT 5.79 BANDERA 14.3 WNW 5.70 THRU 7 AM SATURDAY ABILENE MUNI ARPT 5.56 HONDO MUNI ARPT 5.02 ...OKLAHOMA... FORT COBB 9.00 EL RENO 7.00 MINCO 6.00 APACHE 5.00 WATONGA 4.20 ...MINNESOTA... ROCHESTER 4.89 ...WISCONSIN... MADISON 4.04 LA CROSSE 4.00 ERIN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS OKLAHOMA SUNDAY...SHIFTING THE MAIN THREAT FOR ORGANIZED HEAVY RAINFALL NORTHEAST ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND POSSIBLY INTO MISSOURI...WHILE ALSO INCREASING THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL INTO THE MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY REGION. ADDITIONAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA INTO MISSOURI...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 6 INCHES. ADDITIONALLY...RAINFALL OF 2-4 INCHES IS EXPECTED FROM THE MIDWEST INTO SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY STATES. REPEATING THE 4 AM CDT POSITION...35.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 98.1 WEST...NORTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT NEAR 15 MPH...MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 25 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 50 MPH IN THUNDERSTORMS...MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIN WILL BE ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER AT 1000 AM CDT SUNDAY MORNING. PLEASE REFER TO YOUR LOCAL FORECAST OFFICE FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONCERNING THIS SYSTEM. KONG/ECKERT FORECAST POSITIONS INITIAL 19/0300Z 35.7N 98.1W 12HR VT 19/1200Z 36.0N 98.3W 24HR VT 20/0000Z 37.4N 97.5W