PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 20 FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIN NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD AL052007 1000 AM CDT SUN AUG 19 2007 ...IMPRESSIVE RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH T.D. ERIN SLIDING EAST OVER CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... FLASH FLOOD WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR A SMALL PORTION OF NORTHERN TEXAS AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. FLOOD AND FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR SEVERAL COUNTIES IN SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. FLOOD WARNINGS ALSO CONTINUE FOR PORTIONS OF TEXAS. WHILE ERIN HAD DEVELOPED AN IMPRESSIVE RADAR SIGNATURE EARLY THIS MORNING FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WELL INLAND...THE LASTEST RADAR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE STORM HAS BEEN WEAKENING. HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO PERSIST AROUND...AND TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER OF ERIN AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. AT 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF ERIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 35.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 97.0 WEST...ABOUT 12 MILES...19 KILOMETERS...WEST NORTHWEST OF CHANDLER OKLAHOMA...OR ABOUT 70 MILES...113 KILOMETERS...WEST SOUTHWEST OF TULSA OKLAHOMA. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING IN A GENERAL NORTHEAST DIRECTION AT 15 MPH...13 KT...24 KM/H. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...30 KT...56 KM/HR...WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 50 MPH IN THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS AROUND 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES. SELECTED STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN INCHES THROUGH 900 AM CDT SUNDAY ...TEXAS... HOUSTON METRO AREA LOCKWOOD (HUNTING BAYOU) 11.02 3 DAY TOTAL SENS RD 9.33 3 DAY TOTAL LITTLE CEDAR BAYOU @8TH ST 8.50 3 DAY TOTAL SIMS BAYOU @MARTIN LUTHER KING 8.43 3 DAY TOTAL SOUTH MCGREGOR WA 7.05 HOUSTON/INTERCONTINENTAL 5.51 BOERNE 5.6 NE 10.23 THRU 7 AM SATURDAY SAN ANTONIO/STINSON MUNI ARPT 9.62 FAIR OAKS RANCH 10 NNE 9.62 THRU 7 AM SATURDAY OZONA 22 SE 9.06 48 HOURS THRU 8AM SATURDAY FREDERICKSBURG 10.6 SSW 8.26 THRU 7 AM SATURDAY LACKLAND AFB 2.4 NW 8.30 THRU 7 AM SATURDAY HELOTES 1 ENE 7.94 THRU 7 AM SATURDAY GREY FOREST 0.2 N 7.73 THRU 7 AM SATURDAY KERRVILLE 5.9 SE 7.46 THRU 7 AM SATURDAY KELLY AFB/SAN ANTONIO 7.46 HONDO 8.7E 7.33 THRU 7 AM SATURDAY EL DORADO 7.19 48 HOURS THRU 8AM SATURDAY WINTERS 6.67 THRU 7 AM SATURDAY GILLESPIE 6.55 SINCE 12 AM FRIDAY ROBERT LEE 6.34 24 HOURS THRU 8AM SATURDAY SAN ANGELO/MATHIS 5.96 6 WSW BOERNE 5.84 SAN ANTONIO INTL ARPT 5.79 BANDERA 14.3 WNW 5.70 THRU 7 AM SATURDAY ABILENE MUNI ARPT 5.56 HONDO MUNI ARPT 5.02 ...OKLAHOMA... GEARY 9.8 WNW 11.03 FORT COBB 9.04 EL RENO 8.33 NORMAN 2.3 NNE 8.12 MINCO 6.43 MUSTANG 2.1 WNW 6.38 WALTERS 6.15 EDMOND 1.6 W 5.46 OKLAHOMA CITY 5.36 APACHE 5.30 WATONGA 4.60 ERIN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS OKLAHOMA INTO MISSOURI SUNDAY NIGHT...EVENTUALLY SHIFTING THE MAIN THREAT FOR ORGANIZED HEAVY RAINFALL NORTHEAST INTO MISSOURI. ADDITIONAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA INTO MISSOURI...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 6 INCHES. THE MOISTURE FROM ERIN HAS BEEN MOVING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE STORM AND INTERACTING WITH A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM THE MIDWEST EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY...ENHANCING RAINFALL ACROSS THE MIDWEST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY REGION. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 2 TO 4 INCHES IS EXPECTED FROM THE MIDWEST INTO SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY STATES. REPEATING THE 1000 AM CDT POSITION...35.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 97.0 WEST...NORTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT NEAR 15 MPH...MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 35 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 50 MPH IN THUNDERSTORMS...MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIN WILL BE ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER AT 400 PM CDT. PLEASE REFER TO YOUR LOCAL FORECAST OFFICE FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONCERNING THIS SYSTEM. OTTO FORECAST POSITIONS INITIAL 19/1500Z 35.8N 97.0W 12HR VT 20/0000Z 37.5N 93.5W 24HR VT 20/1200Z 39.0N 90.5W