PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 21 FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIN NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD AL052007 400 PM CDT SUN AUG 19 2007 ... T.D. ERIN MOVING ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA... FLASH FLOOD WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. FLOOD AND FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR AN AREA EXTENDING FROM SOUTHWEST THROUGH EASTERN OKLAHOMA. FLOOD WARNINGS ALSO CONTINUE FOR PORTIONS OF TEXAS. HEAVY RAINS ARE MOSTLY LOCATED SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER WHILE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO ROTATE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. MOISTURE FROM ERIN CONTINUES TO FEED NORTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS AND MISSOURI TOWARD A FRONTAL SYSTEM IN THE MIDWEST. AT 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF ERIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 36.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.3 WEST...ABOUT 10 MILES...16KM...SOUTHWEST OF BARTLESVILLE OKLAHOMA...AND ABOUT 30 MILES...50 KILOMETERS... NORTHWEST OF TULSA OKLAHOMA. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING IN A GENERAL NORTHEAST DIRECTION AT 18 MPH...16 KT...29 KM/H. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS AFTER WHICH THE CENTER OF ERIN IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 25 MPH...22 KT...40 KM/HR...WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS AROUND 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES. SELECTED STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN INCHES THROUGH 400 PM CDT SUNDAY ...TEXAS... HOUSTON METRO AREA LOCKWOOD (HUNTING BAYOU) 11.02 3 DAY TOTAL SENS RD 9.33 3 DAY TOTAL LITTLE CEDAR BAYOU @8TH ST 8.50 3 DAY TOTAL SIMS BAYOU @MARTIN LUTHER KING 8.43 3 DAY TOTAL SOUTH MCGREGOR WA 7.05 HOUSTON/INTERCONTINENTAL 5.51 BOERNE 5.6 NE 10.23 THRU 7 AM SATURDAY SAN ANTONIO/STINSON MUNI ARPT 9.62 FAIR OAKS RANCH 10 NNE 9.62 THRU 7 AM SATURDAY OZONA 22 SE 9.06 48 HOURS THRU 8AM SATURDAY FREDERICKSBURG 10.6 SSW 8.26 THRU 7 AM SATURDAY LACKLAND AFB 2.4 NW 8.30 THRU 7 AM SATURDAY HELOTES 1 ENE 7.94 THRU 7 AM SATURDAY GREY FOREST 0.2 N 7.73 THRU 7 AM SATURDAY KERRVILLE 5.9 SE 7.46 THRU 7 AM SATURDAY KELLY AFB/SAN ANTONIO 7.46 HONDO 8.7E 7.33 THRU 7 AM SATURDAY EL DORADO 7.19 48 HOURS THRU 8AM SATURDAY WINTERS 6.67 THRU 7 AM SATURDAY GILLESPIE 6.55 SINCE 12 AM FRIDAY ROBERT LEE 6.34 24 HOURS THRU 8AM SATURDAY SAN ANGELO/MATHIS 5.96 6 WSW BOERNE 5.84 SAN ANTONIO INTL ARPT 5.79 BANDERA 14.3 WNW 5.70 THRU 7 AM SATURDAY ABILENE MUNI ARPT 5.56 HONDO MUNI ARPT 5.02 ...OKLAHOMA... GEARY 9.8 WNW 11.03 FORT COBB 9.04 EL RENO 8.33 NORMAN 2.3 NNE 8.12 MINCO 6.43 MUSTANG 2.1 WNW 6.38 WALTERS 6.15 EDMOND 1.6 W 5.46 OKLAHOMA CITY 5.39 APACHE 5.30 WATONGA 4.60 LAWTON MUNI AIRPORT 4.42 ERIN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS OKLAHOMA INTO MISSOURI SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE DISSIPATING... SHIFTING THE MAIN THREAT FOR ORGANIZED HEAVY RAINFALL INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND MISSOURI. ADDITIONAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS INTO MISSOURI...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 6 INCHES. EVEN THOUGH THE CENTER OF ERIN IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE...ITS MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INTERACT WITH A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM THE MIDWEST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY...ENHANCING RAINFALL THERE. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 2 TO 4 INCHES IS EXPECTED FROM THE MIDWEST INTO SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY STATES. REPEATING THE 400 PM CDT POSITION...36.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.3 WEST...NORTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT NEAR 18 MPH...MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN THUNDERSTORMS...MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIN WILL BE ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER AT 1000 PM CDT. PLEASE REFER TO YOUR LOCAL FORECAST OFFICE FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONCERNING THIS SYSTEM. KOCIN FORECAST POSITIONS INITIAL 19/2100Z 36.5N 96.3W 12HR VT 20/0600Z 38.5N 93.5W 24HR VT 20/1800Z DISSIPATED...