REMNANTS OF LEE ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD AL132011 1000 AM CDT MON SEP 05 2011 CORRECTED FOR AN INCREASE IN MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS. ...REMNANTS OF LEE EXPECTED TO CAUSE FLOODING FROM THE GULF COAST STATES TO NEW ENGLAND... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.5N 89.9W ABOUT 40 MILES...64 KM...NNE OF NEW ORLEANS, LA. ABOUT 125 MILES...201 KM...S OF JACKSON, MS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...23 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- FLOOD AND FLASH FLOOD WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FROM THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF LEE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.5 NORTH...AND LONGITUDE 89.9 WEST. LEE HAS BECOME EXTRATROPICAL OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA AS IT HAS MERGED WITH A FRONTAL ZONE WITH COOL AND DRY AIR INFILTRATING THE CIRCULATION CENTER FROM THE NORTH AND WEST. THE EXTRATROPICAL LOW CENTER IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST...BRINGING THE CENTER INTO ALABAMA BY MONDAY NIGHT. TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF LEE WILL CONTINUE TO INTERACT WITH THE FRONTAL ZONE...AND EXTREMELY HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED TO FALL IN LOCATIONS WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH...80 KM/H. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 995 MB...29.39 INCHES. HAZARDS ------- RAINFALL...THE REMNANTS OF LEE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES THROUGH TUESDAY. HEAVY RAINS WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS THROUGH TUESDAY...WHERE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS MAY CAUSE LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. RAINFALL TOTALS --------------- SELECTED STORM TOTAL RAINFALL IN INCHES THROUGH 7 AM CDT ...ALABAMA... MOBILE 10.2 WSW 11.35 GRAND BAY 0.6 NW 10.39 THEODORE 3.7 WNW 9.78 ORANGE BEACH 3.0 ENE 9.75 FOLEY 2.0 SSW 9.73 ELBERTA 3.1 SSW 9.65 TILLMANS CORNER 4.3 WNW 9.47 MOBILE/BATES FIELD 9.19 POINT CLEAR 1.6 SSW 7.90 WILMER 7.9 SE 7.51 FAIRHOPE 0.9 N 7.41 ...FLORIDA... MILTON 1.4 NNE 10.03 NICEVILLE 4.5 SE 7.35 PENSACOLA 3.8 N 6.57 WEST PENSACOLA 10.9 SW 6.35 ENSLEY 2.1 ENE 6.10 PACE 2.4 N 6.06 NAVARRE 2.3 NNW 6.02 DESTIN AIRPORT 5.93 GONZALEZ 2.1 E 5.68 APALACHICOLA MUNI ARPT 5.37 EGLIN AFB 5.6 NE 5.33 VALPARAISO/EGLIN AFB 5.30 HURLBURT FIELD AWS 5.30 BELLVIEW 1.7 NW 5.13 ...KENTUCKY... PLUM SPRINGS 0.8 NNW 3.10 LAWRENCEBURG 5.2 S 2.34 BOWLING GREEN 5.9 ESE 2.33 SMITHS GROVE 0.3 SE 2.14 LEXINGTON 1.7 SSE 2.08 GUTHRIE 0.8 WNW 2.00 ...LOUISIANA... HOLDEN 15.43 N.O. CAROLLTON 14.32 MAUREPAS 13.63 PONCHATOULA 4 SE 13.22 CONVENT 2 S 13.04 RESERVE 0.5 SSE 12.43 GRAY 0.5 ENE 12.15 MARRERO 1.9 E 11.21 MONTICELLO 3.0 ENE 10.91 NEW ORLEANS/MOISANT 10.80 MERAUX 0.8 WNW 10.10 ABITA SPRINGS 2.2 SSW 9.93 LACOMBE 1.4 N 9.79 TERRYTOWN 3.3 S 9.10 ZACHARY 3.5 WNW 9.04 BATON ROUGE 3.5 E 9.00 SLIDELL 2.2 NE 8.20 ...MISSISSIPPI... FLORENCE 0.9 E 13.45 WAVELAND 1.1 NW 13.20 SAUCIER 6.4 ESE 11.75 GULFPORT 2.0 NE 11.71 LONG BEACH 0.7 S 11.59 PASS CHRISTIAN 5.0 N 11.31 RICHLAND 0.3 WSW 11.25 PHILADELPHIA 5.4 E 11.18 PEARL 3.4 ESE 11.14 JACKSON WFO 11.13 KILN 6.6 N 10.90 GULFPORT-BILOXI 10.78 ...TENNESSEE... CUMBERLAND CITY 1.2 ESE 5.09 LAWRENCEBURG 8.8 SE 4.95 CLARKSVILLE 14.4 WSW 4.87 LORETTO 2.8 NNW 4.50 ALEXANDRIA 0.5 SW 4.48 COOKEVILLE 4.6 WNW 4.23 CHRISTIANA 6.5 E 4.22 LEBANON 4.0 SE 4.21 JAMESTOWN 6.7 W 4.07 ...TEXAS... BRIDGE CITY 1.3 NW 3.12 BEAUMONT/PORT ARTHUR 3.04 JASPER 6.7 W 2.12 NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT ADVISORY ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT. PLEASE REFER TO YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR FURTHER INFORMATION ON THIS STORM. FORECASTER GERHARDT FORECAST POSITIONS ------------------ INITIAL 05/1500Z 30.5N 89.9W 12HR VT 06/0000Z 32.1N 87.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24HR VT 06/1200Z 34.3N 84.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36HR VT 07/0000Z 34.7N 83.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48HR VT 07/1200Z 36.0N 82.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP