BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Florence Advisory Number  70
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD   AL062018
500 PM EDT Sun Sep 16 2018

...FLORENCE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS OVER
MUCH OF NORTH CAROLINA AND EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA. FLASH
FLOODING AND CATASTROPHIC/HISTORIC RIVER FLOODING WILL CONTINUE OVER
A SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF THE CAROLINAS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.6N 82.2W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM SSE OF GREENVILLE SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM SSE OF ASHEVILLE NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Flash flood warnings are currently in effect across a large portion
of southern and western North Carolina and portions of far
northern South Carolina.

Flash flood watches are in effect across much of North
Carolina...northern South Carolina and portions of Western
Virginia and Southern West Virginia.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Florence
was located near latitude 34.6 North, longitude 82.2 West. The
depression is moving toward the north near 14 mph (22 km/h) and this
motion is expected to accelerate to the north today and tonight
before turning eastward across Southern New England on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some additional weakening is expected over the next 24 hours
before intensification begins on Tuesday as the system transitions
into an extratropical low.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Florence is expected to produce heavy and excessive
rainfall over the next couple of days.  Portions of the Carolinas,
Mid-Atlantic States, and Southern New England are expected to
receive an additional 2 to 5 inches of rain...with isolated maximum
of 8 inches possible.

Storm total accumulations of up to...
40 inches in southern North Carolina
20 inches in northern South Carolina and western North Carolina...
will produce catastrophic flash flooding and prolonged significant
river flooding.  An elevated risk for landslides exists in western
North Carolina.

Storm total accumulations up to...
15 inches in southwest Virginia and 5-10 inches in the remainder of
the Mid-Atlantic and New England States will produce
life-threatening flash flooding and significant river
flooding. An elevated risk for landslides exists in southwest
Virginia.

For more information on rainfall totals please see the Storm Summary
available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc4.html

TORNADOES:  A few tornadoes remain possible near the eastern border
of the Carolinas into tonight.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.


Forecaster Roth/Carbin

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  16/2100Z 34.6N  82.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 12H  17/0600Z 36.3N  82.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 24H  17/1800Z 38.5N  81.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  18/0600Z 39.8N  79.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  18/1800Z 40.8N  74.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  19/1800Z 42.8N  62.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  20/1800Z 44.5N  47.9W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  21/1800Z 46.3N  39.1W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP