BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Fred Advisory Number  37
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD   AL062021
500 PM EDT Wed Aug 18 2021

...POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE FRED MOVING NORTHEAST FROM WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA TOWARD THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NEW YORK WITH HEAVY RAIN
AND ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...40.8N 79.0W
ABOUT 185 MI...295 KM WSW OF BINGHAMTON NEW YORK
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...25 MPH...35 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1014 MB...29.95 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
Flood and Flash Flood Watches are in effect from parts of Virginia,
Maryland, Pennsylvania, New York, and across interior New
England.

A Tornado Watch is in effect from northern Virginia and parts of
Maryland across much of central and eastern Pennsylvania.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Fred
was located near latitude 40.8 North, longitude 79.0 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the northeast near 15 mph (24
km/h) and this motion is expected to continue through tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 25 mph (35 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next 36 hours.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1014 mb (29.95 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:

Through Thursday night...
Across the Northeast from much of Pennsylvania and New York into
New England...2 to 4 inches of rain with isolated maximum storm
totals of 6 inches expected.

Heavy rainfall across portions of the northern Mid-Atlantic States
and Northeast could lead to considerable flash, urban, small stream
and isolated river flooding impacts.

For the latest rainfall reports and wind gusts associated with
Tropical Depression Fred, see the companion storm summary at
WBCSCCNS1 with the WMO header ACUS41 KWBC or at the following link:
available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html


TORNADOES:
Isolated tornadoes are possible across parts of the inland
Mid-Atlantic region this evening.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.


Forecaster Carbin

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  18/2100Z 40.8N  79.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 12H  19/0600Z 42.1N  76.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 24H  19/1800Z 42.6N  73.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  20/0600Z 43.6N  70.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP