BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Fred Advisory Number  39
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD   AL062021
500 AM EDT Thu Aug 19 2021

...POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE FRED MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN NEW
YORK...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...42.0N 76.0W
ABOUT 15 MI...20 KM S OF BINGHAMTON NEW YORK
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM WSW OF ALBANY NEW YORK
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...25 MPH...35 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB...29.86 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
Flash Flood Watches are in effect for parts of New York and central
New England.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Fred
was located near latitude 42.0 North, longitude 76.0 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the east-northeast near 17
mph (28 km/h) and this motion is expected to slow down through
Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 25 mph (35 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours as it
crosses southern New England.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1011 mb (29.86 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:
Post-Tropical Cyclone Fred is expected to produce 1 to 3 inches of
rain with isolated maximum storm totals of 5 inches from New York
across New England through tonight.  This rainfall could lead to
flash, urban, small stream and isolated river flooding impacts.

For the latest rainfall reports and wind gusts associated with
Post-Tropical Cyclone Fred, see the companion storm summary at
WBCSCCNS1 with the WMO header ACUS41 KWBC or at the following link:
available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html

For more information on rainfall totals please see the Storm Summary
available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html

TORNADOES:
A tornado is possible this morning over southeastern New
York, Long Island, or southern New England.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.


Forecaster Roth

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  19/0900Z 42.0N  76.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 12H  19/1800Z 43.1N  73.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 24H  20/0600Z 44.0N  69.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  20/1800Z 44.7N  66.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP