THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER

CAMP SPRINGS, MD


STORM SUMMARY MESSAGE



STORM SUMMARY NUMBER 01 FOR POTENTIAL AUTUMN MID-ATLANTIC TO
NORTHEAST U.S. MAJOR WINTER STORM
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
500 AM EDT FRI OCT 28 2011
 
...CHANCES ARE INCREASING FOR A RARE OCTOBER WINTER STORM FOR THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEASTERN STATES TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...     
 
WINTER STORM WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR AREAS FROM NORTHWESTERN
VIRGINIA NORTHWARD THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND INTO
EASTERN NEW ENGLAND.
 
FOR A DETAILED GRAPHICAL DEPICTION OF THE LATEST
WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES...PLEASE SEE WWW.WEATHER.GOV

AT 400 AM EDT...A COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST...USHERING A COLD POLAR AIRMASS INTO MUCH OF THE EASTERN
U.S. A SURFACE LOW HAS DEVELOPED EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG THE
LOUISIANA COAST IN RESPONSE TO A VIGOROUS UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.     

THE SURFACE LOW NEAR THE LOUISIANA GULF COAST IS FORECAST TO LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD TO CENTRAL GEORGIA BY FRIDAY EVENING...AND TO THE
NORTH CAROLINA COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING. BY FRIDAY
EVENING...LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN SPREADING INTO PORTIONS
OF VIRGINIA AND WEST VIRGINIA. MOST OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL
FALL IN THE FORM OF RAIN...WITH SNOW IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
OVERNIGHT...THE PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AND
HEAVIER...WITH RAIN SPREADING ACROSS MOST OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS. BY SATURDAY MORNING...AS COLDER AIR WORKS INTO THE
REGION...THE SNOW WILL SPREAD TO LOWER ELEVATIONS...WITH
ACCUMULATING SNOWS POSSIBLE GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A
LINE FROM WASHINGTON D.C. TO PHILADELPHIA TO NEW YORK
CITY...SPREADING INTO NEW ENGLAND LATE SATURDAY. 

TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE FORECAST FROM THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF VIRGINIA AND WEST VIRGINIA NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH
EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE HEAVIEST
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 10 INCHES ARE FORECAST TO FALL IN A BAND
FROM EXTREME NORTHERN MARYLAND NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH NORTHERN NEW
JERSEY AND INTO WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS. LIGHTER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE MAJOR CITIES OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
NORTHEAST...INCLUDING WASHINGTON
D.C...BALTIMORE...PHILADELPHIA...NEW YORK CITY...AND BOSTON. 

SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS TO THE EXACT TRACK OF THE SURFACE
LOW...WHICH WILL DETERMINE EXACTLY WHERE THE HEAVIEST SNOW FALLS.
HEAVY WET SNOWS ACCUMULATING ON TREES THAT HAVE NOT YET LOST
LEAVES MAY LEAD TO DOWNED TREES AND POWER OUTAGES. PLEASE REFER TO
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE FOR DETAILS
SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA.     

THE NEXT STORM SUMMARY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL
PREDICTION CENTER AT 1100 AM EDT. PLEASE REFER TO YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS
EVENT.

RYAN




Last Updated: 437 AM EDT FRI OCT 28 2011