STORM SUMMARY NUMBER 03 FOR SOUTHERN PLAINS HEAVY RAINFALL
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
900 PM CST TUE MAR 08 2016

...MORE HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AHEAD OF A DYNAMIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...

FLOOD WATCHES...FLOOD WARNINGS...AND FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN
EFFECT WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM EASTERN TEXAS AND
WESTERN LOUISIANA NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHWESTERN ILLINOIS.

FOR A DETAILED GRAPHICAL DEPICTION OF THE LATEST
WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES...PLEASE SEE WWW.WEATHER.GOV

AT 800 PM CST...AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER-LEVEL LOW WAS ROTATING
COUNTERCLOCKWISE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO WHILE A BROAD STREAM OF
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR CONTINUED TO HEAD NORTHWARD FROM MEXICO
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AHEAD OF THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW WHERE A
COMPLEX SURFACE FRONTAL STRUCTURE HAD GRADUALLY SET UP.  A SURFACE
LOW WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 997 MB...29.44 INCHES...WAS LOCATED
JUST WEST OF LAREDO...TEXAS IN NORTHERN MEXICO.  NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWED A LARGE ORGANIZED
CLUSTER OF HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS WAS RAPIDLY FORMING IN CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN TEXAS IN THE PAST FEW HOURS AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW
CENTER.  FARTHER TO THE EAST...AN EXTENDED AREA OF ORGANIZED HEAVY
THUNDERSTORMS WITH AN EMBEDDED SQUALL LINE CONTINUED TO MOVE
EASTWARD TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

...SELECTED STORM TOTAL RAINFALL IN INCHES FROM 600 AM CST MON MAR
07 THROUGH 800 PM CST TUE MAR 08...

...ARKANSAS...
FORT SMITH MUNI ARPT                  2.16                    
TEXARKANA RGNL ARPT                   1.87                    

...LOUISIANA...
BOSSIER CITY                          5.42                    
SHREVEPORT                            4.55                    
BARKSDALE AFB/BOSSIER CITY            4.01                    

...OKLAHOMA...
ADA 0.3 NNW                           2.38                    
SULPHUR 2.5 WSW                       2.36                    
POTEAU/ROBERT S KERR AIRPORT          1.64                    

...TEXAS...
MINERAL WELLS 1 SSW                   6.03                    
BOONEVILLE                            5.36                    
PARADISE                              5.21                    
GARRETT CREEK RANCH                   5.13                    
RUNAWAY BAY 0.7 SSW                   4.46                    
SPRINGTOWN 6.0 NW                     4.17                    
SANGER 5.4 NW                         3.64                    
DECATUR                               3.62                    
GRAFORD 8.1 ENE                       3.53                    
DENTON MUNI ARPT                      3.49                    
AGNES                                 3.15                    
SALT CREEK                            2.85                    
SHERMAN/DENISON                       2.70                    
COTTONDALE                            2.59                    
WHITESBORO 2.8 W                      2.37                    
DALLAS/REDBIRD ARPT                   1.65                    


THE LARGE AND ANOMALOUS UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO IS
EXPECTED TO DRIFT EASTWARD TOWARD SOUTHERN TEXAS OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS AS A WELL-DEFINED FRONT IS FORECAST TO FORM ACROSS
EASTERN TEXAS INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  A CONTINUOUS FLOW
OF WARM AND MOIST UNSTABLE AIR FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE
LIFTED ALONG THE FRONT AND RESULT IN HEAVY RAIN TO FALL IN THE
SAME GENERAL AREA FROM EASTERN TEXAS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THE FOCUS OF HEAVY
RAIN TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO BE FROM ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS...
NORTHWESTERN LOUISIANA AND INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
ARKANSAS WHERE OVER 6 INCHES OF RAIN COULD FALL.  BY WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINS WILL ONLY SHIFT SLIGHTLY
EASTWARD CLOSER TO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.  RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5
TO 10 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN GULF COAST... SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WITH ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR
MULTIPLE DAYS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL RESULT IN A PROLONGED THREAT OF
FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING THROUGH MID-WEEK. 

THE NEXT STORM SUMMARY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE WEATHER PREDICTION
CENTER AT 300 AM CST. PLEASE REFER TO YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS EVENT.

KONG