STORM SUMMARY NUMBER 05 FOR SOUTHERN PLAINS HEAVY RAINFALL
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
900 AM CST WED MAR 09 2016

...MORE HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AHEAD OF A DYNAMIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...

FLOOD WATCHES...FLOOD WARNINGS...AND FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN
EFFECT FROM EASTERN TEXAS AND WESTERN LOUISIANA NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS ARKANSAS INTO SOUTHWESTERN ILLINOIS.

FOR A DETAILED GRAPHICAL DEPICTION OF THE LATEST
WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES...PLEASE SEE WWW.WEATHER.GOV

AT 800 AM CST...AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER-LEVEL LOW WAS ROTATING
OVER NORTHERN MEXICO WHILE A BROAD STREAM OF MOIST AND UNSTABLE
AIR CONTINUED TO PUSH NORTHWARD FROM MEXICO AND THE WESTERN GULF
OF MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AHEAD OF THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW
WHERE A COMPLEX SURFACE FRONTAL STRUCTURE HAD SET UP.  A SURFACE
LOW WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES...WAS LOCATED
JUST NORTHWEST OF BROWNSVILLE...TEXAS.  NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWED THAT HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUED TO ORGANIZE IN THE VICINITY OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS.  ANOTHER AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS WAS
ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS WESTERN TEXAS AND
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.  FARTHER TO THE EAST...HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUED TO EXTEND FROM NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS INTO ARKANSAS.

...SELECTED STORM TOTAL RAINFALL IN INCHES FROM 600 AM CST MON MAR
07 THROUGH 800 AM CST WED MAR 09...

...ARKANSAS...
MARIANNA 3.1 WNW                      5.25                    
WALDO 4.2 S                           4.82                    
EL DORADO/GOODWIN FIELD               4.71                    
CROSSETT 0.9 S                        4.63                    
CROSSETT 2.5 NNE                      4.25                    
MONTICELLO AIRPORT                    3.63                    
PINE BLUFF/GRIDER FIELD               3.25                    
LITTLE ROCK/ADAMS FIELD               2.20                    
FORT SMITH MUNI ARPT                  2.16                    
TEXARKANA RGNL ARPT                   1.87                    

...LOUISIANA...
MINDEN 2.0 NE                        12.16                    
BARKSDALE AFB/BOSSIER CITY           11.39                    
JAMESTOWN                            10.70                    
BIENVILLE 0.5 S                       9.62                    
HOMER 1.2 N                           9.42                    
SWARTZ                                8.89                    
MONROE 2.4 WNW                        8.46                    
SHREVEPORT 3.2 ESE                    8.45                    
MONROE RGNL ARPT                      7.98                    
SHREVEPORT RGNL ARPT                  6.33                    

...MISSISSIPPI...
GREENVILLE MUNI ARPT                  2.86                    

...OKLAHOMA...
ADA 0.3 NNW                           2.38                    
SULPHUR 2.5 WSW                       2.36                    
POTEAU/ROBERT S KERR AIRPORT          1.64                    

...TENNESSEE...
COLLIERVILLE 1.2 E                    5.00                    
MEMPHIS INTL ARPT                     1.67                    

...TEXAS...
LONGVIEW                              8.60                    
MINERAL WELLS                         7.03                    
PINELAND 5 E                          6.70                    
MARSHALL 9.7 SE                       6.43                    
MINERAL WELLS 1 SSW                   6.03                    
BEN WHEELER 3.9 ESE                   6.00                    
DECATUR 4 W                           5.81                    
BOONEVILLE                            5.36                    
PARADISE                              5.21                    
GARRETT CREEK RANCH                   5.13                    
JOPLIN                                4.41                    
VALLEY VIEW                           4.20                    
DECATUR                               3.62                    
DENTON MUNI ARPT                      3.61                    
COLLINSVILLE                          3.42                    
LAKE WAXAHACHIE                       2.98                    
DALLAS/REDBIRD ARPT                   2.42                    


THE LARGE AND ANOMALOUS UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO IS
EXPECTED TO DRIFT EASTWARD TOWARD SOUTHERN TEXAS OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS AS A WELL-DEFINED FRONT IS FORECAST TO BECOME NEARLY
STATIONARY FROM ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY.  A CONTINUOUS FLOW OF WARM AND MOIST UNSTABLE AIR FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE LIFTED ALONG THE FRONT AND RESULT IN HEAVY
RAIN TO FALL IN THE SAME GENERAL AREA FROM EASTERN TEXAS
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.  THE FOCUS OF HEAVY RAIN TODAY IS EXPECTED TO BE FROM ACROSS
EASTERN TEXAS... NORTHWESTERN LOUISIANA AND MUCH OF ARKANSAS WHERE
5 TO 9 INCHES OF RAIN COULD FALL.  BY TOMORROW...THURSDAY...THE
AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINS WILL ONLY SHIFT SLIGHTLY EASTWARD CLOSER TO
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.  TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST FROM ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE WESTERN GULF COAST NORTHWARD ACROSS MUCH OF ARKANSAS THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING ...WITH PROGRESSIVELY LESSER AMOUNTS EXTENDING
FARTHER NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND NEW ENGLAND. THE
PROSPECT OF MULTIPLE DAYS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MEANS THAT A PROLONGED THREAT
OF FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED THROUGH MID-WEEK. 

THE NEXT STORM SUMMARY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE WEATHER PREDICTION
CENTER AT 300 PM CST. PLEASE REFER TO YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS EVENT.

KREKELER