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< Day 2 Outlook
WPC Day 3 Excessive Rainfall Outlook Risk of 1 to 6 hour rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance at a point
Updated: 0807 UTC Mon May 20, 2024
Valid: 12 UTC May 22, 2024 - 12 UTC May 23, 2024
Forecast Discussion
Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1158 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024
Day 3
Valid 12Z Wed May 22 2024 - 12Z Thu May 23 2024
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA, ACROSS THE LOWER ARKANSAS VALLEY INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...
The trailing frontal boundary from the low moving northeastward
from the Upper MS Valley into the Upper Lakes region day 2, will
slow significantly on the southern end from the Southern Plains
into the Lower Arkansas and Mid Mississippi Valley during day 3 as
it becomes aligned more parallel to the southwest flow aloft. PW
values expected to rise to 2+ standard deviations above the mean
along this slowing frontal zone, supporting potential for heavy
rainfall total from southeast Oklahoma, northeastward through the
Ozarks of Arkansas and Missouri and toward the Mid Mississippi and
Lower Ohio Valley regions. Shortwave energy embedded in the
southwest flow aloft will enhance uvvs in this anomalous PW axis
Wednesday afternoon continuing into the early hours of Thursday.
Training of cells parallel to the boundary is a concern for heavy
to locally excessive rainfall totals day 3 with the slight risk
drawn for the max qpf consensus and across regions where soil
moisture and stream flows are high. Changes to the previous outlook
were to narrow the slight risk area to better match current qpf
consensus and best region for potential training of precipitation
areas.
Oravec
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