Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
732 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

Valid 12Z Wed Jun 19 2024 - 12Z Sun Jun 23 2024

...Overview and Guidance Evaluation/Preferences...

Most of mainland Alaska will be situated under an upper level
ridge axis extending from northwestern Canada going into the
middle to end of the week.  A compact upper level polar low near
the Bering Strait on Wednesday is forecast to slowly drift
westward and away from the state to close out the work week. 
Meanwhile, the main storm track across the North Pacific is
expected to remain south of the state, although a surface low may
approach the southeast Panhandle going into next weekend.

Overall, the latest model guidance is in above average agreement
across the Alaska domain going into next week, and even reasonable
agreement for next weekend with the main synoptic scale features.
The UKMET did stray from the consensus by Thursday with the polar
low dropping farther south across the Bering, so this was weighted
less than the CMC/ECMWF/GFS. The GFS becomes a more northerly
solution by next Sunday with the shortwave/closed low south of the
central Aleutians, but still within the realm of possibility. The
ensemble means accounted for about 30-40% of the forecast blend
going into next weekend.


...Weather/Hazards Highlights...

Isolated to scattered showers and thundershowers can be expected
most days across the Interior during the afternoons and early
evenings, and some generally light onshore flow induced showers
for the southern coastal areas. The greatest QPF is expected
across the Alaska Range and portions of the Brooks Range, along
with southeastern mainland Alaska. 
Depending on the evolution and track of a surface low over the
eastern Gulf by next Sunday, a more organized round of rain could
approach the southeast Panhandle, although it's not expected to be
a major event.  Areas north of the Brooks Range should generally
remain dry with the Arctic high exerting its influence across the
North Slope and Arctic Coast.

In terms of temperatures, afternoon highs are expected to reach
well into the 70s for many areas across the Interior, perhaps
reaching 80 degrees for the Yukon Flats midweek, and also just
north of the Alaska Range over the weekend.  Overnight lows here
should also be rather mild with readings bottoming out from the
upper 40s to middle 50s.  The Arctic Coast will likely remain
chilly with onshore flow from the Arctic Ocean, with highs
generally from the middle 30s to middle 40s. 

Hamrick


Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface
fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be
found at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html