US Day 3-7 Hazards Outlook
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
427 PM EDT Fri May 27 2022
Valid Monday May 30 2022 - Friday June 03 2022
- Heavy precipitation across portions of the Northern Plains/Rockies, Mon, May 30.
- Heavy rain across portions of the Central Plains, the Middle Mississippi Valley, and the Southern
Plains, Tue-Wed, May 31-Jun 1.
- Heavy rain across portions of the Upper Mississippi Valley, and the Northern Plains, Mon, May 30.
- Severe weather across portions of the Great Plains, and the Middle/Upper Mississippi Valley, Mon,
- Flooding occurring or imminent across portions of the Central/Northern Plains, and the Upper
- Flooding likely across portions of the Central Plains.
- High winds across portions of the Central Plains/Rockies/Great Basin, the Southern
Rockies/Plains, and the Southwest, Mon, May 30.
- Enhanced wildfire risk across portions of the Southern Rockies, the Central/Southern Plains, and
the Southwest, Mon, May 30.
Much of the country will experience active weather during the medium range period (Monday, May 30th
- Friday, June 3rd), but the hazardous weather is likely to remain confined to the western and
central portions of the CONUS. A closed upper-level low will move from the West up into
southern-central Canada next week as a block-y upper ridge inhibits flow into the eastern half of
the country. Scattered to isolated thunderstorms and locally heavy rainfall will remain possible
over the Florida Peninsula through mid-week.
The upper low in the West will settle over the Rockies and Plains this weekend and drive most of
the hazards over the western and central U.S. through the beginning of June. This weekend's
enhanced wildfire risk is likely to continue into Monday over parts of central New Mexico due to
dry and windy conditions caused by the digging upper trough to the north. Warm air will continue to
advect into the eastern half of the country next week as the aforementioned upper ridge strengthens
over the region.
Troughing in the West will also support the potential for heavy precipitation over parts of
west-central Montana on Sunday and Monday, where heavy low elevation rain and heavy mountain snow
is expected. Heavy rain is forecast to spread across southeastern Montana and into the Dakotas,
northeastern Wyoming, northwestern Nebraska and into northwestern Minnesota on Sunday and Monday as
the front stalls out over the Northern/Central Plains. An axis of additional heavy rainfall may
focus along the front extending from the Texas panhandle up into northwestern Illinois and
southeastern Iowa. Severe thunderstorms are also forecast to develop out ahead of the surface front
over parts of the eastern Dakotas/Nebraska, central Kansas on Monday.
. . .Alaska. . .
A quasi-stationary front will remain draped across the northern mainland throughout the medium
range period. Warmer than normal temperatures are expected across the central/southern mainland as
a result. A deep area of low pressure weakens as it approaches the Gulf coast through midweek.
Another deep area of low pressure will approach the Aleutians late next week.
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