US Day 3-7 Hazards Outlook
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
354 PM EDT Mon Jul 15 2019
Valid Thursday July 18 2019 - Monday July 22 2019
- Heavy rain across portions of the Upper Mississippi Valley and the Northern Plains, Sun, Jul 21.
- Flooding possible across portions of the Upper Mississippi Valley.
- Flooding occurring or imminent across portions of the Central Plains, the Lower Mississippi
Valley, the Northern Plains, the Middle Mississippi Valley, the Upper Mississippi Valley, and the
- Flooding likely across portions of the Central Plains, the Middle Mississippi Valley, the Lower
Mississippi Valley, and the Northern Plains.
- Excessive heat across portions of the Central Plains, the Lower Mississippi Valley, the Tennessee
Valley, the Middle Mississippi Valley, the Upper Mississippi Valley, the Great Lakes, and the Ohio
Valley, Thu-Sat, Jul 18-Jul 20.
- Excessive heat across portions of the Southeast, the Mid-Atlantic, the Northeast, and the Central
Appalachians, Fri-Sun, Jul 19-Jul 21.
A broad upper level ridge will encompass much of the central and eastern U.S. for the end of the
work week and into the weekend, with the main storm track confined from the northern Rockies to the
northern Great Lakes. Given the upper level pattern, cold fronts are not expected to make much
progress south of 40 degrees north. This will allow for heat and humidity to build across the
central plains to the Ohio Valley by the middle to end of the week, and a second area of excessive
heat likely for the East Coast region from Georgia to southern New England. Widespread high
temperatures in the mid 90s to low 100s can be expected for multiple days. In addition, dewpoints
rising well into the 70s will result in heat indices reaching or exceeding 105 degrees, with some
peaking in the 110 to 115 degree range during peak afternoon heating. Another factor worth noting
will be the anomalously warm overnight low temperatures. This will especially hold true for the
big cities of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, with lows failing to fall below 80 degrees Friday
night and Saturday night. This is assuming that no significant rainfall occurs during those
evening and overnight periods. Heat-related weather headlines will likely be needed for both of
the regions delineated on the hazards chart later in the week.
The main area of concern for heavy rain will be across the Upper Midwest over the upcoming weekend,
with the greatest potential on Sunday. There will likely be an organized thunderstorm complex in
association with a developing surface low that will track on the northern periphery of the ridge.
Total rainfall amounts on the order of 1 to 2 inches will be possible, but uncertainty remains on
the exact placement across Minnesota and Wisconsin.
No weather hazards are forecast for Alaska during this period.
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