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U.S. Day 3-7 Hazards Outlook
About the Hazards Outlook
 
Created August 18, 2022
 
NOTE:
These products are only created Monday through Friday. Please exercise caution using this outlook during the weekend.
 
Precipitation
Temperature
Soils
 
Valid August 21, 2022 - August 25, 2022
 
Static Hazards Map Image
 
CPC's Day 8-14 US Hazards Outlook
 

US Day 3-7 Hazards Outlook
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
436 PM EDT Thu Aug 18 2022

Valid Sunday August 21 2022 - Thursday August 25 2022

Hazards:
- Heavy rain across portions of the Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley, and the Southern Plains,
Sun-Wed, Aug 21-Aug 24.
- Flooding possible across portions of the Southern Plains.
- Flooding likely across portions of the Southern Plains.
- Heavy rain across portions of mainland Alaska, Mon, Aug 22 and Wed, Aug24.
- Heavy rain across portions of the Alaska Panhandle, Wed, Aug 24.

Detailed Summary:

Heavy rainfall will be the main weather hazard over the CONUS and Alaska during the medium range
period (Sunday, August 21st - Thursday, August 25th). Shortwave energy responsible for heavy rain
and flash flooding in the Southwest this weekend will turn east and drive significant weather over
the Southern Plains and Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley beginning Saturday night. The latest
guidance has trended slightly slower with better agreement between the GFS and Euro on placement of
the axis of heaviest precipitation. Heavy rain will spread from eastern New Mexico across northern
Texas/central Oklahoma on Sunday and to the ArkLaTex on Monday. The latest guidance, save for the
00z Euro ensemble mean, has the heaviest rainfall retrograding backward into central Texas on
Tuesday as the surface low settles over north-central Texas and attendant fronts stall out across
the Deep South. The heavy rainfall signal begins to weaken by next Wednesday as an upper ridge
expands into the Southern Plains from the West.

Temperatures in the Pacific Northwest will begin to rise above normal late next week as the
aforementioned upper-level ridge builds over the region. The 06 & 12z GFS indicated the chance for
heavy rainfall to impact western Pennsylvania on Sunday as a low pressure system crosses the
Midwest/Ohio Valley. Western Pennsylvania is particularly sensitive to heavy rain, but a hazard
area was not added due to the lack of agreement on timing and intensity of qpf in the other
guidance.

. . .Alaska. . .

A slow moving Aleutian low pressure system will spread moisture along the southern Gulf coast this
weekend into next week. Heavy rainfall will impact portions of the southern Kenai into the norhtern
panhandle on Monday and Wednesday.

Kebede


 
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