US Day 3-7 Hazards Outlook
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
307 PM EDT Fri Mar 22 2019
Valid Monday March 25 2019 - Friday March 29 2019
- Heavy precipitation across portions of the Central Great Basin, California, and the Southwest,
Mon-Thu, Mar 25-Mar 28.
- Flooding possible across portions of the Northern/Central Plains, the Northeast, the Central
Appalachians, the Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley, the Mid-Atlantic, and the Great Lakes.
- Flooding occurring or imminent across portions of the Northern/Central Plains, the Mississippi
Valley, the Tennessee Valley, the Great Lakes, and the Ohio Valley.
- Flooding likely across portions of the Northern/Central Plains, the Upper/Middle Mississippi
Valley, and the Great Lakes.
- Much above normal temperatures across portions of the Northern/Central Plains, the Upper/Middle
Mississippi Valley, and the Great Lakes, Wed-Thu, Mar 27-Mar 28.
- High winds across portions of the Aleutians, Mon, Mar 25.
- Much above normal temperatures across portions of mainland Alaska, Tue-Wed, Mar 26-Mar 27.
Recent heavy rain and snow melt is contributing to flooding over parts of the Northern Plains into
the Upper Mississippi Valley and the Upper Great Lakes through Wednesday. In addition, earlier
snow melt and run off moving southward from the Upper Mississippi Valley into portions of the
Middle and Lower Mississippi Valley producing flooding near the river and tributaries through
Wednesday. Flooding is possible over parts of the Northern Mid-Atlantic into Southern New England
through Wednesday. Broad upper-level ridging and clockwise circulation around high pressure over
Northeast into the Southeast will aid in producing temperatures much above normal on Wednesday into
Thursday over parts of the Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley into the Central Plains. The higher than
normal temperatures will aid in melting snow pack across parts of the Upper Midwest.
In the meantime, upper-level low just off the California Coast will slowly stream impulses of
energy inland an associated plume of moisture will aid in producing heavy precipitation over parts
of Northern/Central California on Monday into Thursday. The precipitation will be higher elevation
snow and lower elevation rain. Additionally, a front over Central Canada will move southeastward
to the Upper Great Lakes to the Southern High Plains on Wednesday into Friday. A plume of moisture
from the Western Gulf of Mexico will stream northward into the Upper Midwest that will shift
eastward to the Great Lakes to the Western Gulf Coast by Friday. The front will interact with the
moisture that will produce heavy rain over parts of the Upper Midwest to the Middle Mississippi
Valley on Friday. There is spread in the models where to place the heavy rain or if the rain will
be heavy enough to meet the criteria for heavy rainfall on the hazards chart. Thus, there was no
heavy rainfall depicted on the hazards chart because of the uncertainty and low confidence in where
to place the heavy rain.
In Alaska, deep low pressure over the Bering Sea on Monday will aid in producing high wind over the
Aleutians on Monday. Furthermore, returning upper-level ridging over the mainland of Alaska will
aid in producing an area of above normal temperatures from the Brooks range northward with
departures from normal of up to 50 degrees on Monday into Tuesday.