Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 PM EDT Mon Mar 30 2026

Valid 12Z Thu Apr 02 2026 - 12Z Mon Apr 06 2026


...Heavy rain and flooding potential across the central to east-
central U.S. late week into the weekend...

...April snow and ice concerns across the Upper Midwest to Great
Lakes to Northeast Thursday-Friday...

...Overview...

At the start of the period Thursday, a potent shortwave will push
a wavy frontal system through the central and eastern U.S. and
spread precipitation across the region, including snow and ice in
the northern tier and heavy rain farther south. Meanwhile more
amplified upper troughing is forecast to move into the Northwest by
Thursday and eastward into late week, continuing unsettled weather
there, including rain/mountain snow and strong winds. As that
trough pushes east into the Plains, additional moisture will be
drawn north and renew potential for heavy rain and storms in the
Plains/Mississippi Valley and vicinity once again, ending up with
multiple days of flooding concerns in that region. The trough and
surface front are forecast to gradually push through the eastern
U.S. over the weekend, spreading some rain to the Eastern Seaboard
around Sunday.


...Guidance/Predictability Assessment...

The latest deterministic and ensemble mean guidance continues to
remain well clustered and follow similar trends through a least the
first half of the current forecast period later this week and into
early this weekend. An initial upper-level shortwave emerging over
the Plains will help to spin up a surface wave along a lingering
frontal boundary over the Plains before lifting to the northeast
through the Midwest/Great Lakes. The latest guidance is agreeable
on both the general progression of this feature as well as a trend
to lift northward faster given stronger upper-level ridging to the
east. To the west, the guidance also well captures the next upper-
trough upstream reaching the western U.S. and then emerging over
the Plains later this week and into early this weekend. A composite
blend of the latest 06Z GFS and the 00Z ECMWF/ECMWF AIFS/CMC is
used given good overall agreement and maintains good WPC forecast
continuity. Thereafter, the guidance continues to diverge more with
respect to the progression of the upper-trough, accompanying
surface low, and trailing cold front as it lifts northeastward
through the Great Lakes and the Northeast/southeast Canada. The GFS
remains on the faster end of the guidance with the ECMWF AIFS and
then CMC slower, and the ECMWF in the middle. The ensemble means
not surprisingly also land in the middle. Therefore, the latter
part of the updated WPC forecast blend used increased contributions
from the ECens/GEFS means while reducing the contributions from
the GFS, CMC, and ECMWF AIFS.

Another area of greater uncertainty is with the evolution of
shortwave(s) originating from another upper-trough/low over the
northeastern Pacific moving into the northwestern U.S., and then
the eventual approach of this upper-trough. Differences in the
deterministic guidance and the lack of more details in the means
result in a hard to resolve reflection at the surface and how
frontal boundary(s) may progress, though there at least looks to be
the potential for increased in precipitation chances from the
northern Rockies/Plains to the Pacific Northwest later this weekend
and into early next week, even if the details are harder to pin
down at this time. The use of the means in the updated WPC forecast
helps capture the overall pattern with some more refined details
added based on the individual deterministic guidance.

...Weather/Hazards Highlights...

A low pressure/frontal system stretching from the Mid-Atlantic
across the Ohio Valley and Mid-Mississippi Valley will tap into
Gulf moisture and spread rain and thunderstorms to portions of the
central and eastern U.S. into Thursday. The moisture and
instability along with the upper-level support could lead to
flooding concerns across parts of the Middle Mississippi Valley
into the Great Lakes region. A Marginal Risk remains in place for
Day 4/Thursday in those regions. Convection is likely to the south
across parts of Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley as well,
but could be more limited as the forcing lifts out, and higher
flash flood guidance could keep the ERO risk less than 5 percent
there. A chilly airmass in the northern U.S. will allow for wintry
weather concerns in the Great Lakes to Interior Northeast. This
includes a swath of potentially impactful freezing rain/ice along
with multiple inches of April snow, with the heaviest snow
currently forecast in the U.P. of Michigan into northern Maine.
Some areas could see transitioning precipitation types throughout
the event.

Troughing moving through the West Thursday will provide support
for precipitation. Lower elevation rain and mountain snow will
taper off near the West Coast but overspread the Intermountain
West. Several inches of snow with localized totals are over a foot
are expected in the northern Rockies. Gusty winds could be a
concern across the Intermountain West to Rockies and Plains with
this troughy pattern. Precipitation should continue its eastward
movement into Friday as the upper trough tracks east, with some
snow lingering across the Rockies and potentially impactful snow
eventually spreading across the northern Plains to Upper Midwest
Friday into Saturday. Meanwhile the trough will pull Gulf moisture
and instability into the central U.S. once again on Friday. Will
maintain the Day 5/Friday ERO with a Marginal Risk stretching from
parts of the southern and central Plains into the Middle
Mississippi Valley, with a good setup for high rain rates. The
rainfall footprint could be rather similar to a rain event midweek,
potentially exacerbating flooding concerns, so will continue to
monitor if a Slight Risk may be needed in future issuances. The
upper trough and surface low/front should gradually push east over
the weekend, bringing precipitation to the east- central U.S. back
into the Ark- La-Tex vicinity on Saturday, and across the Eastern
Seaboard to Gulf Coast on Sunday. The typical Spring set up of an
upper-trough combined with increased moisture and instability will
also likely lead to at least some severe weather potential as the
details come into focus, particularly from the central/southern
Plains Friday and east into the Ohio Valley Saturday. Northern tier
ice and snow could be possible once again. Breezy conditions are
also possible in the Midwest by the weekend dependent on the low
track. A more active upper-pattern over the northwestern U.S. may
bring increased precipiation chances later this weekend into early
next week, and some showers/thunderstorms also look possible over
the Four Cornerss region.

Warmer than average temperatures are likely across the south-
central to southeastern U.S. through the weekend, with even higher
temperature anomalies of generally 15-25 degrees above normal
focused over the Ohio Valley as temperatures reach the 70s and 80s
there. The Bermuda high will support these above average
temperatures while model guidance shows the warm front staying
north of these areas. Meanwhile, rounds of cooler than average
conditions are likely to move through the north-central U.S. behind
cold fronts. Eventually the cold fronts should press across the
East into early next week for more seasonable conditions. The West
can generally expect near to slightly below average conditions
through the latter part of the week, but will warm to above average
over the weekend as upper ridging comes in behind the trough
aloft.


Putnam/Tate


Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids,
quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF), excessive rainfall
outlook (ERO), winter weather outlook (WWO) probabilities, heat
indices, and Key Messages can be accessed from:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ero
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ovw