Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 PM EDT Fri Oct 30 2026

Valid 12Z Mon Nov 02 2026 - 12Z Fri Nov 06 2026


...A slowly progressive storm system will bring heavy
rains/thunderstorms across the Central U.S. through midweek and
into the eastern U.S. later next week...


...Overview...

Lead trough/low energy east of Florida and a frontal boundary
sagging back across Florida will bring wrapping showers and
thunderstorms that may include some heavy wrapping downpours early
next week. An active mid-latitude pattern remains on tap upstream
for the central to eastern U.S. next week as an amplified upper
trough with multi-stream energies progresses eastward from the
Rockies. The evolution of this trough, including a potential
development of a closed mid-level low, and an eastward moving
frontal boundary will bring widespread showers/thunderstorms with
runoff threats over much of central U.S. for the early next week,
and possibly the eastern U.S. with increased uncertainty mid-late
next week. Meanwhile by mid-late week, Pacific energy into the West
Coast offers chances for showers/high elevation snows.


...Guidance/Predictability Assessment...

Guidance solutions seem reasonably well clustered at mid-larger
scales with the development,progression and impacts of main upper
troughing from western U.S. into central U.S. by mid next week,
bolstering confidence overall. However, guidance offers much more
uncertainty with subsequent progression/phasing into the East into
later next week. Uncertainties relate from varied multi-stream
interactions and system phasing differences along with upstream
variances with inland progression of East Pacific system energies.
A favored model composite early next week seems reasonable.
Guidance trends through the latest 12 UTC cycle does not bode well
for guidance continuity or predictability/focus later next week.


...Weather/Hazards Highlights...

An amplified upper trough will continue to push eastward into the
central U.S. early next week and encouraging cyclogenesis and
frontogenesis over the Plains. Strengthening lead southerly flow
and Gulf moisture pooling along the boundary will bring widespread
showers and thunderstorms across portions of the Rockies/Plains
into the Mississippi Valley. Locally heavy rainfall will be
possible where deeper moisture and stronger ascent overlap. WPC
continues the Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall for portions of
the Mississippi Valley and Plains for Monday.

Furthermore, snow is likely across higher elevations of the
Rockies. Additionally, stronger pressure gradients around the
developing low may also produce gusty winds, particularly across
the High Plains through Tuesday. Rain and thunderstorms will
persist along the front as it continues to track farther east into
portions of the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, and Southeast by Tuesday,
and eventually the Mid- Atlantic and Northeast by mid-week, but
timing remains uncertain. The frontal boundary will continue to
pull Gulf and Atlantic moisture into the lower Mississippi
Valley/Southeast bringing chances for heavy rainfall, which is
reflected within the Marginal Risk in WPC Excessive Rainfall
Outlook (ERO) for Tuesday. Meanwhile, cooler and drier air will
begin to spread into the central U.S. in the wake of the front.

Across the Southeast, the combination of shortwave disturbances,
persistent moisture transport from the Gulf, and eastward-moving
frontal boundary should support additional rounds of showers and
thunderstorms. Periods of locally heavy rainfall are possible,
particularly across portions of eastern Florida Coast early next
week where a Marginal Risk ERO remains in place.

By mid to late next week, another Pacific disturbance will
approach the West Coast. This will bring an increased chance for
increased precipitation across the Pacific Northwest and portions
of northern California, with potential high-elevation snow.


Oudit/Schichtel


Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids,
quantitative precipitation forecast, excessive rainfall outlook,
winter weather outlook probabilities, heat indices and Key Messages
are at:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ero
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ovw