Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
300 PM EST Tue Nov 3 2026

Valid 12Z Fri Nov 06 2026 - 12Z Tue Nov 10 2026


...Overview...

Active weather will continue through Friday for portions of eastern
U.S. as the initial upper trough and frontal systems continues to
progress offshore. However, additional shortwave energy may
reinforce troughing across the eastern states into early next
week, supporting chances for additional showers and thunderstorm.
Persistent troughing over Pacific Northwest will bring chances for
precipitation into early next week. Farther south, a southern-
stream trough will bring scattered showers and thunderstorm
chances across the Southern Plains into western Gulf Coast through
the weekend.


...Guidance/Predictability Assessment...

Model dispersion is relatively high early in the medium range
period (this weekend), versus later in the period (early next
week), specifically over the Southwest. A digging, positively
tilted trough over the Western U.S. will slow as the southern most
portion stalls. The GFS suite and eventually the deterministic
Canadian attempt to close off a mid-level feature over the
Southwest which retrogrades into the Baja Eastern Pacific early
next week. Therefore, a non-GFS suite based blend was favored
through day 4. By day 5, the ensemble means are favored in the
blend in an attempt to mitigate uncertainty around the trough
frequency over the Central U.S..


...Weather/Hazards Highlights...

A series of shortwave disturbances will maintain an active weather
pattern across the Pacific Northwest into early next week.
Persistent cyclonic flow over the northeastern Pacific, combined
with periods of enhanced onshore moisture transport, will support
reoccurring precipitation along the Washington and Oregon Coast and
across the Cascades. Some precipitation may extend inland across
portions of the Northern Rockies/Intermountain west. Farther
south, a southern-stream trough will progress eastward and interact
with Gulf moisture, bringing periods of scattered showers and
thunderstorms across portions of the southern Plains and western
Gulf Coast through the weekend. An atmospheric river event may
begin early next week as a long duration precipitation event is
anticipated to arrive.

The initial upper trough and associated frontal boundary will
continue moving eastward toward the Atlantic coastline on Friday.
Showers and thunderstorms will continue for portions of the Mid-
Atlantic and Northeast, as moisture continues to pool along the
boundary. Localized flash flooding will be possible for Friday as
the frontal boundary may stall. WPC Excessive Rainfall Outlook has
placed a Marginal Risk for portions of the Northeast coast.
Following
the frontal passage, surface high pressure should expand eastward
from central U.S., promoting drier conditions across the
Mississippi, Ohio, and Tennessee Valley. However, another shortwave
trough dropping southeastward from the northern Plains could
reinforce cyclonic flow across portions of eastern U.S. through the
weekend, but the evolution of this disturbance remains uncertain.
Furthermore, the potential for a secondary surface low to develop
near the East Cost, may support additional showers along the coast.
Further north, favorable low- level flow and cold-air advection
behind the frontal system may support periods of light lake-effect
showers downwind of the Great Lakes.


Kebede/Oudit


Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids,
quantitative precipitation forecast, excessive rainfall outlook,
winter weather outlook probabilities, heat indices and Key Messages
are at:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ero
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ovw