Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
359 AM EDT Sun Apr 5 2026

Valid 12Z Wed Apr 08 2026 - 12Z Sun Apr 12 2026


...Guidance/Predictability Assessment...

Model and ensemble medium-range solutions have become better
clustered over the past several forecast cycles, bolstering
confidence. A composite of the GFS/ECMWF/Canadian offers a solid
forecast basis mid-late week that is well supported by ensembles.
Predictability broadly remains better than normal later period over
much of the nation, but forecast spread does increase in
particular with the timing and emphasis of potentially ample system
energy to work from the Gulf of Alaska to the Northwest U.S. into
next weekend. GFS timing seems best in line with ensemble means
and a GEFS/ECMWF/Canadian ensemble mean blend provides a solution
well in line with the National Blend of Models and WPC continuity.

...Weather/Hazards Highlights...

Flow over the nation this week will remain highlighted by two main
streams. An energetic northern stream upper trough/low and
deepened surface system will progress from the north-central U.S.
midweek to the Northeast/Canadian Maritimes by Friday, slicing
through
lead/cooled high pressure. A swath of moderate rains and northern
periphery snows will accompany windy passage. Another main system
well upstream offers timing/emphasis uncertainty with weekend
digging and modest rain/mountain snow track into the Northwest.

Meanwhile in the southern stream, a lead/wavy frontal boundary
lingering over the Gulf and through Florida should prolong a
wet/windy pattern this week with wet easterly lower level flow
focusing activity over Florida. The WPC Excessive Rainfall Outlook
maintains a Day 4/Wednesday Marginal Risk area for eastern coastal
Florida.Showers may also affect to a lesser extent Southeast U.S.
and Gulf Coastal areas. High pressure will remain in place farther
north over the South/Southeast and graduallly heat-up through
later period ridge building aloft out from the south-central U.S..

Well upstream, an unsettling/cooling eastern Pacific closed upper
trough and surface system will work slowly inland to the
West/Southwest with growing light to moderate shower chances Friday
into the weekend. Ample lead return flow development then over the
central U.S. may portend an emerging heavy rainfall weekend into
early next week pattern that has some signal evident beyond that
into week 2 as per the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) that may
offer broad moderate and high risk potential to monitor.

Schichtel


Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids,
quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF), excessive rainfall
outlook (ERO), winter weather outlook (WWO) probabilities, heat
indices, and Key Messages can be accessed from:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ero
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ovw