Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
300 PM EST Wed Jan 28 2026

Valid 12Z Sat Jan 31 2026 - 12Z Wed Feb 04 2026


...Significant East Coastal Winter Storm Threat this weekend...
...Central to Eastern U.S. Hazardous Cold Threat into next week...


...Guidance/Predictability Assessment...

Guidance captures the overall evolution of the synoptic pattern
across the lower 48 reasonably well during the medium range period.
General trends are slower, farther west and wetter as to the
timing and placement and QPF associated with the upper low over
the East Coast this weekend. Ensemble guidance captures these
variables fairly well compared to the deterministic models, so
they were incorporated into the blend beginning on day 3 and
gradually increased through the medium range period. Uncertainty
remains with respect to the exact track, and intensity of this
upper trough, however continued consolidation of ensemble suites
increases confidence.

...Weather/Hazards Highlights...

Frigid surface high pressure will be replenished with renewed
surges to maintain dangerously cold temperatures and continued
record values possible for portions of the Central and Eastern U.S.
well into next week. The airmass may be more prolonged in areas
with widespread snow/ice coverage and enhanced radiational cooling.
Amplified mean troughing aloft will also, meanwhile, bring rounds
of weak to moderate clipper system snows from the North-Central
U.S. to the Great Lakes.

In this anomalously cold pattern, Gulf frontal wave genesis and
progression downstream with ample trough/closed low development
aloft remains likely to set the environment to produce a
significant Eastern Seaboard Coastal Winter storm forecast to
rapidly deepen while lifting over the Western Atlantic off the
Southeast Saturday and Mid-Atlantic/New England Sunday. The exact
emphasis of the upper system and lead baroclinic zone/storm track
camps still on the table will impact the extent of onshore wintry
heavy precipitation focus and overall footprint. However, the
ongoing consensus is for a heavy snow potential focus from the
eastern Carolinas and coastal Mid-Atlantic through coastal
southern/eastern New England. The forecast strength of the deep low
more confidently supports high winds/waves and coastal flooding
threats.

Meanwhile, lingering southerly Pacific moisture fetch riding the
western periphery of an amplified West Coast mean upper ridge
favors some lingering wet periods for the Pacific Northwest, but
no Excessive Rainfall Outlook threat areas are in place. Snow
levels will rise with the influx of warmer, moist air, with heavier
snows possible for the higher elevations of the Cascades. Energy
spilling over the ridge may fuel modest snow chances to the
Northern-Central Rockies/Plains and eventually over the East-
Central U.S. early-mid next week with downstream moderate
frontal/low genesis.

Kebede/Schichtel


Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids,
quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF), excessive rainfall
outlook (ERO), winter weather outlook (WWO) probabilities, heat
indices, and Key Messages can be accessed from:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ero
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ovw