Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
337 PM EDT Tue Apr 7 2026

Valid 12Z Fri Apr 10 2026 - 12Z Tue Apr 14 2026


...Overview...

The upper level pattern is expected to become amplified late this
week as a strong low/trough digs into the West and ridging
develops over the East. This trough will push east across the
western and central U.S., driving a strong frontal system across
these regions that will bring heavy rainfall and severe weather
potential to the south-central U.S. this weekend into early next
week.

....Guidance/Predictability Assessment...

Model guidance remains in good agreement on the synoptic scale
weather patter through early next week, with an expected amount of
uncertainty in the smaller scale details. The highest amount of
uncertainty surrounds upstream energy in the North Pacific that
will likely impact weather in the Northwest mid-next week. A near
even blend of the available deterministic guidance provided a
reasonable starting point for WPC's afternoon forecast. Ensemble
means were added in increasing amounts early next week to help
smooth out some model differences. This forecast maintains
continuity with the National Blend of Models and the previous
WPC forecast.

...Weather/Hazards Highlights...

A lead northern stream system will progress through the Canadian
Maritimes Friday into Saturday as a trailing front works down over
the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic and stalls back in the Mid-
Mississippi Valley and Central Plains where the WPC Excessive
Rainfall Outlook (ERO) for Day 4/Friday depicts a Marginal Risk
area given pooling moisture.

Meanwhile in the southern stream, a frontal wave drawing
subtropical moisture from the Atlantic will prolong a wet pattern
into late week with protracted east-southeasterly lower level flow.
Showers will focus over Florida late this week, but may also to a
lesser extent affect Southeast U.S./Gulf Coastal areas.

Well upstream, a closed Pacific upper low will push a surface
system inland over California and the Southwest/Southern Great
Basin late this week while another energetic low dives south along
the West Coast. This second system will drive a strong frontal
system across the western U.S. that will bring increasing
precipitation chances, rain and mountain snow, this weekend.

Ahead of this system, moist, southerly flow off the Gulf will
prime the atmosphere over the south-central U.S. for heavy rain
this weekend. A Marginal Risk area remains in the Day 5/Saturday
ERO over the southern Plains, and the heavy rain threat may linger
into Monday and expand northeastwards as a system ejects into and
strengthens over the Plains. This strengthening system will also
likely support a severe weather threat this weekend into early next
week. In this pattern, downstream high pressure will emanate from
the Southeast to allow a warming trend to spread north toward the
Upper Midwest, Great Lakes, and Northeast this weekend into early
next week.


Dolan/Schichtel


Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids,
quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF), excessive rainfall
outlook (ERO), winter weather outlook (WWO) probabilities, heat
indices, and Key Messages can be accessed from:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ero
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ovw