Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
258 AM EDT Wed Apr 8 2026

Valid 12Z Sat Apr 11 2026 - 12Z Wed Apr 15 2026


...Overview...

The upper level pattern is expected to become amplified into this
weekend/next week as a potent/cooling low/trough digs into the
West as warming ridging develops over the East. Upper troughing
will work over the western and central U.S., with a frontal
system/widespread precipitation spreading over these broad
unsettled regions to include and emerging heavy rainfall and severe
weather threat for the south-central U.S. this weekend into early
next week. There is potential for terrain enhanced spring snows
over the West/Rockies and downstream for a cooled northern tier.

....Guidance/Predictability Assessment...

Guidance remains in good agreement on the larger scale weather
pattern through early-mid next week in a pattern evolution with
above normal overall predictability, albeit with an expected amount
of uncertainty in the smaller scale details. The highest amount of
uncertainty surrounds the timing of energies working inland into
the West/Southwest and subsequent northeastward ejection downstream
along with handling of upstream energy in the North Pacific that
will likely impact weather in the Northwest by next midweek. Favor
a broad model/ensemble mean/machine learning guidance blend with
weekend emphasis on the latest GFS/ECMWF/Canadian/UKMET models
before transitioning emphasis more toward a GEFS/ECMWF/Canadian
ensemble means based solution for early-mid next week. The blending
process is designed to help mitigate lingering smaller scale
system timing and strength variances as consistent with individual
predictability. This plan maintains good product continuity with
the National Blend of Models and the previous WPC forecast suite.

...Weather/Hazards Highlights...

A closed Pacific upper trough/low will push a surface system
inland over California and the Southwest/Southern Great Basin this
weekend as another energetic system dives south along the West
Coast. This second system will also act to drive a strong frontal
system across the western U.S. that will bring widespread
precipitation chances including rain and mountain snow, this
weekend into early next week. Aforementioned additional energy in
this stream may affect the Northwest heading into next midweek.

Downstream, moist southerly return flow and instability out from
the Gulf will prime the atmosphere over the south-central U.S. for
heavy rain by this weekend. Marginal Risk threat areas are now in
place for the Day 4/Saturday and Day 5/Sunday Excessive Rainfall
Outlook over the southern Plains, and the heavy convective rain
threat may linger into Monday and expand northeastward into the
Mississippi Valley/Midwest with system strengthening and lift over
the central U.S. and eventually onward toward the Northeast. The
strengthening system will also likely support a severe weather
threat this weekend into early next week as per SPC. In this
pattern, downstream high pressure will emanate from the Southeast
to allow a warming trend to spread north toward the Upper Midwest,
Great Lakes, and Northeast this weekend into early next week.


Schichtel


Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids,
quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF), excessive rainfall
outlook (ERO), winter weather outlook (WWO) probabilities, heat
indices, and Key Messages can be accessed from:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ero
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ovw