Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
235 PM EST Mon Nov 2 2026

Valid 12Z Thu Nov 05 2026 - 12Z Mon Nov 09 2026


...Overview...

Unsettled weather will continue into Thursday for portions of the
Eastern U.S. as an upper trough and associated frontal system
continues to progress toward the eastern seaboard. Behind the
frontal system, cooler and drier conditions will expand from the
Central U.S. into much of the Eastern U.S.. Lingering upper- level
energy and moisture associated with a northward lifting western
Atlantic surface low may maintain periods of unsettled weather near
the East Coast through the weekend. Across the Western U.S. a
series of disturbances may bring precipitation chances into the
Pacific northwest.


...Guidance/Predictability Assessment...

The latest guidance shows fairly good agreement on the overall
large scale pattern evolution during the period, but with plenty of
uncertainty in the details especially into the weekend and early
next week. This features an initial trough into the East on
Thursday, followed by another shortwave or two dropping into the
north- central U.S. and eventually amplifying over the East next
Monday. Sufficient agreement on the Eastern trough allowed for a
general model compromise blend for the WPC progs on Thursday and
Friday.

More impactful details emerge as another shortwave moves
southeastward across the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley this weekend.
There are both timing and strength differences, with some recent
models runs wanting to close off an upper low over the Mid South
next Monday. This also impacts possible coastal low development and
track next week, with considerable uncertainty in those impacts,
if any. Out West, shortwave and troughing timing is variable and
would impact QPF coverage and amounts across the Pacific Northwest
early next week, and beyond. The WPC blend was weighted more
heavily towards the ensemble blends for next weekend and Monday.
Generally maintained good consistency with the previous WPC
forecast as well as the National Blend of Models.


...Weather/Hazards Highlights...

An initial upper trough and associated surface frontal system will
continue progressing across the Eastern states. Strong south to
southwesterly low- level flow ahead of the boundary will transport
Gulf moisture northward, supporting widespread showers and
thunderstorms across portions of the Southeast, Mid-Atlantic, and
Northeast through Thursday. There is some uncertainty along the
East Coast as the primary frontal boundary pushes offshore and the
western Atlantic low moves northeastward by late week into the
weekend. Depending on the track and interaction with frontal
boundaries, additional moisture could support lingering showers
across portions of coastal Mid- Atlantic and Northeast. High
pressure should build behind the front, allowing for drier
conditions to spread across much of Central and Eastern U.S., with
favorable flow and frontal boundaries supporting some generally
light lake effect precipitation downwind of the Great Lakes.

Out West, a series of disturbances will approach the Pacific
Northwest through the period maintaining periods of precipitation
along the coast and over the Cascades. Some low elevation rain may
extend inland across the northern Intermountain West/Rockies, with
higher elevations favoring snow. Further south, a southern stream
trough will support showers across parts of the Southern Plains and
western Gulf Coast through the weekend.


Santorelli


Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids,
quantitative precipitation forecast, excessive rainfall outlook,
winter weather outlook probabilities, heat indices and Key Messages
are at:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ero
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ovw