Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
347 AM EDT Thu Mar 26 2026

Valid 12Z Sun Mar 29 2026 - 12Z Thu Apr 02 2026


...Overview...

Multiple rounds of shortwave impulses will propagate through the
Northeast while rotating around the southern periphery of a deep
mid-level low centered over eastern Canada next week. Elsewhere, a
relatively stagnant zonal flow pattern across the northern tier
the country will give way to a more amplified one by mid-week, when
the mean trough stationed over the Gulf of Alaska will dislodge
and dig into the West Coast of the CONUS. The southern tier ridge
will slide into the East by mid-to-late next week.


...Guidance/Predictability Assessment...

Models are in reasonably good agreement regarding the overall
synoptic evolution of the mid-level pattern during the medium range
period. Some uncertainties arise with respect to the timing and
intensity of the waves moving through the Northeast as well as the
incoming Pacific trough mid-week.

A general model blend consisting of all of the available
deterministic and Ai guidance were used on days 3, 4 and 5 due to
minor differences in their respective 500 mb patterns. Ensemble
means were introduced into the blend on day 5 and became a majority
of the blend beginning on day 6.


...Weather/Hazards Highlights...

Weaker ridging over the West than last week will still generate
well above average temperatures through early next
week.Temperatures across the High Plains and Rockies foothills will
be between 30-40 degrees above average. Sunday and Monday will be
the final two days of scattered to widespread tied or broken record
warm temperatures. A cold front will sweep south through the
Plains by mid-week, effectively moderating temperatures across the
northern tier.

A deep Pacific system will enter the West next week, by digging
down the coastline before ejecting out over the rest of the
country. A surface low pressure system tracking across the central
U.S. will become the focus for scattered to isolated thunderstorms.
Guidance has begun to consolidate around a heavy rain threat over
parts of the Midwest and Great Lakes beginning next Tuesday. Two
separate yet recent rounds of heavy rainfall over the Ohio Valley
will have made those soils especially vulnerable to flash flooding
by any more heavy rain that occurs next week.

An active northern stream featuring a series of low pressure
systems will produce several rounds of light rain/snow across
portions of the interior Northeast and New England next week.

Kebede


Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids,
quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF), excessive rainfall
outlook (ERO), winter weather outlook (WWO) probabilities, heat
indices, and Key Messages can be accessed from:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ero
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ovw