Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
207 AM EST Thu Jan 29 2026

Valid 12Z Sun Feb 01 2026 - 12Z Thu Feb 05 2026


...Major weekend East Coastal Winter Storm with a rapidly
deepening low and high wind/wave and heavy snow impacts up the
Seaboard, but especially anomalous for the coastal Carolinas...

...Central to Eastern U.S. Hazardous Cold Threat into next week...


...Guidance/Predictability Assessment...

The WPC medium-range product suite was primarily derived from a
composite of reasonably well clustered mid-larger scale guidance
from the GFS/ECMWF/Canadian models and the EC-AIFS valid for
Sunday/Monday with the blend tending to mitigate lingering and
important smaller scale scale differences as consistent with
individual feature predictability. This process is extended over
longer time frames next week using a combination of the GEFS/EC/CMC
ensemble means and EC- AIFS amid growing forecast spread. This
plan maintains good WPC product continuity in line with the
National Blend of Models and still mixed latest model trends.

...Weather/Hazards Highlights...

It remains the case that frigid surface high pressure will be
replenished with renewed surges to maintain dangerously cold
temperatures and continued record values possible for parts of the
Central and Eastern U.S. into next week before moderating. The
airmass may be prolonged in areas with widespread snow/ice
coverage and enhanced radiational cooling. Amplified mean troughing
aloft will also bring rounds of light to moderate clipper system
snows from the north-central U.S. to the Midwest/Great Lakes
manually adjusted from the much smaller snow footprint of the NBM.

In this anomalously cold pattern, Gulf frontal wave genesis and
progression downstream with ample trough/closed low development
aloft remains likely to set the environment to produce a
major Eastern Seaboard Coastal Winter storm forecast to rapidly
deepen while lifting over the Western Atlantic off the Southeast
Saturday and Mid-Atlantic/New England Sunday. The structure of the
upper system and lead baroclinic zone/storm track is becoming
clearer in guidance, but less predictable storm detail will impact
the extent of onshore wintry heavy precipitation focus and overall
footprint. However, it is likely now that a heavy snow potential
focus should be from the eastern Carolinas and coastal Mid-
Atlantic up through coastal southern/eastern New England. The
forecast strength of the bombing low confidently supports high
winds/waves and associated coastal flooding threats up the coast.

Meanwhile, lingering southerly Pacific moisture fetch riding the
western periphery of an amplified West Coast mean upper ridge
favors some lingering wet periods for the Pacific Northwest, but
no Excessive Rainfall Outlook threat areas are in place. Snow
levels will rise with the influx of warmer, moist air, with heavier
snows possible for the higher elevations of the Cascades. Energy
spilling over the ridge may fuel modest snow chances to the
Northern-Central Rockies/Plains then across the Midwest/Great
Lakes into mid-later next week with downstream moderate frontal/low
genesis and steady progression. The south-central states should
meanwhile develop deeper return flow of pre-frontal moisture to
fuel an emerging area of moderate to locally enhanced rainfall.

Schichtel


Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids,
quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF), excessive rainfall
outlook (ERO), winter weather outlook (WWO) probabilities, heat
indices, and Key Messages can be accessed from:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ero
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ovw