Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
300 PM EST Tue Jan 27 2026

Valid 12Z Fri Jan 30 2026 - 12Z Tue Feb 03 2026


...Significant East Coastal Winter Storm Threat this weekend...
...Central to Eastern U.S. Hazardous Cold Threat into next week...


...Guidance/Predictability Assessment...

Models are in relatively good agreement regarding the overall
synoptic evolution across the CONUS during the medium range
period. The main area of uncertainty remains along the East Coast
this weekend where cyclogenesis is expected to occur. A general
model blend of all the available deterministic guidance was used on
days 3 and 4, followed by the introduction of the GEFS and ECE on
day 5 due to their comprable depth and placement of the upper low
along the East Coast. Trends seem to favor a track farther from the
coast, but this may be subject to change.

The NBM struggles to capture lake effect snow that develops
downwind of the Great Lakes on days 4 and 5 so a blend of
deterministic Canadian and other pieces of guidance were used to
bump up QPF over those areas. Some Euro suite, GEFS and continuity
were used to enhance QPF from the Upper Midwest to interior
Northeast on days 6 and 7, since the NBM failed to capture precip
across those areas.


...Weather/Hazards Highlights...

The ongoing settling of cold surface high pressure and additional
surges in the wake of the historic winter storm will maintain
dangerously cold temperatures for the central and eastern U.S. well
into next week as per the Climate Prediction Center. The airmass
may be more prolonged in areas with widespread snow/ice coverage
and enhanced radiational cooling. Amplified mean troughing aloft
will meanwhile bring rounds of weak to moderate clipper system
snows from the north-central U.S. to the Great Lakes.

In this anomalously cold pattern, there is potential for wintry
precipitation into the Gulf Coast states late week as upper trough
translation leads into northern Gulf frontal wave genesis. Wave
progression downstream and trough/closed low development aloft is
now increasingly likely to set the environment to produce a
significant Eastern Seaboard Coastal Winter storm expected to
rapidly deepen while lifting over the western Atlantic off the
Southeast Saturday and Mid-Atlantic/New England Sunday. Uncertainty
has improved but remains with the exact track of the low which
impacts the onshore wintry precipitation focus and footprint.
However,
the growing consensus at this time is for heavy snow potential
from the eastern Carolinas/Mid-Atlantic through coastal southern
New England. The forecast strength of the deep low suggests high
winds/waves and coastal flooding would also be expected.

Meanwhile, lingering southerly Pacific moisture fetch riding the
western periphery of an amplified West Coast mean upper ridge
favors a wet pattern for the Pacific Northwest this period, but no
Excessive Rainfall Outlook threat areas remain in place due to a
lowering guidance signal over time. Snow levels will rise with the
influx of warmer, moist air, with heavier snows possible for the
higher elevations of the Cascades. Energy spillng over the ridge
may fuel modest snow chances to the north-central Rockies/Plains.

Kebede/Schichtel


Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids,
quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF), excessive rainfall
outlook (ERO), winter weather outlook (WWO) probabilities, heat
indices, and Key Messages can be accessed from:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ero
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ovw