Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
147 AM EST Mon Nov 2 2026

Valid 12Z Thu Nov 05 2026 - 12Z Mon Nov 09 2026



...Overview...

Unsettled weather continues for portions of eastern U.S. as the
upper trough and associated frontal system continues to progress
toward the eastern seaboard. Behind the frontal system, cooler and
drier conditions will expand from central U.S. into much of eastern
U.S. behind the front. However, lingering upper-level energy and
moisture associated with a northward lifting western Atlantic low
may maintain periods of unsettled weather near the East Coast
through the weekend. Across western U.S. additional Pacific
disturbances may bring precipitation chances into the Pacific
northwest.


...Guidance/Predictability Assessment...

The latest model guidance indicates improving agreement on the
broad evolution of the amplified eastern U.S. trough and the
eastward movement of the associated frontal system through the
first half of the period. However, uncertainty remains with the
timing and and amplitude of individual shortwaves and the potential
interaction between the western Atlantic surface low. These
difference are important across the Mid-Atantic and Northeast,
where the degree of interaction with the low could determine
whether precipitation ends relatively quickly behind the front or
lingers into the weekend. Across western U.S., the evolution of
the Pacific disturbances remains uncertain as well. Individual
model solutions differ in the timing and strength of the incoming
disturbance, but the broader signal supports continued periods of
onshore flow and precipitation across the Pacific Northwest.
Furthermore, chances for showers and thunderstorms across portions
of the southern tier will also depend on the eastward progression
of the western trough and the transport of Pacific moisture. Given
these uncertainties, a multi-model blend were used in the forecast,
with heavier weight on the ensemble means towards mid-period.

...Weather/Hazards Highlights...

The primary upper trough and associated frontal system will
continue progressing eastward from the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys
towards the Appalachians and eastern seaboard. Strong south to
southwesterly low-level flow ahead of the boundary will transport
Gulf moisture northward, supporting widespread showers and
thunderstorms across portions of the Southeast, Mid-Atlantic, and
Northeast. There is some uncertainty along the East Coast as the
primary frontal boundary pushes offshore and the western Atlantic
low moves northeastward by late week into the weekend. Depending
on the track and interaction with frontal boundaries, additional
moisture could support lingering showers across portions of coastal
Mid- Atlantic and Northeast. Furthermore, high pressure begins to
build behind the front, allowing for drier conditions to spread
across much of central and eastern U.S.

Across western U.S., additional Pacific disturbances will approach
the Pacific Northwest by late week and will maintain periods of
precipitation along the coast and over the Cascades. Some low
elevation rain may extend inland across the northern Intermountain
West/Rockies, with higher elevations favoring snow. Further south,
a southern stream troughing pattern, with additional shortwave
energy is expected to move through the Southwest/Four Corners,
which may support showers across portions along the Four Corners
Region/Rockies and central Plains.


Oudit


Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids,
quantitative precipitation forecast, excessive rainfall outlook,
winter weather outlook probabilities, heat indices and Key Messages
are at:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ero
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ovw