Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
120 AM EST Tue Nov 3 2026

Valid 12Z Fri Nov 06 2026 - 12Z Tue Nov 10 2026


...Overview...

Active weather will continue through Friday for portions of eastern
U.S. as the initial upper trough and frontal systems continues to
progress offshore. However, additional shortwave energy may
reinforce troughing across the eastern states into early next
week, supporting chances for additional showers and thunderstorm.
Persistent troughing over Pacific Northwest will bring chances for
precipitation into early next week. Farther south, a southern-
stream trough will bring scattered showers and thunderstorm
chances across the Southern Plains into western Gulf Coast through
the weekend.


...Guidance/Predictability Assessment...

The latest model guidance supports a cyclonic flow over
northeastern Pacific, extending towards the West Coast. Downstream,
ridging is favored across portions of western and central U.S.,
while troughing continues over eastern U.S. The initial upper
trough and associated frontal system should continue progressing
offshore through the early portion of the period. However, another
shortwave dropping southeastward across the Great Lakes and Ohio
Valley could reinforce troughing across the eastern states.
Deterministic solutions have differed on the strength of this
disturbance, with some guidance suggesting sufficient
amplification for an upper low development over the Mid-South,
while the ensemble means favor a troughing evolution. These
differences can impact additional rainfall across portions of the
Tennessee Valley, lower Mississippi Valley, and Southeast. Across
the West, guidance continues to indicate persistent troughing over
northeastern Pacific, although the timing and amplitude of
individual shortwaves approaching the Pacific Northwest remains
variable, which will impact precipitation across the coastal areas
and the Cascades.

A general multi-model blend is favored for the earlier portion of
the forecast, with greater reliance on ensemble means as the
forecast progresses into early next week.



...Weather/Hazards Highlights...

A series of Pacific shortwave disturbances will maintain an active
weather pattern across the Pacific Northwest into early next week.
Persistent cyclonic flow over the northeastern Pacific, combined
with periods of enhanced onshore moisture transport, will support
reoccurring precipitation along the Washington and Oregon Coast
and across the Cascades. Some precipitation may extend inland
across portions of the Northern Rockies/Intermountain west. Further
south, a southern-stream trough will progress eastward and
interact with Gulf moisture, bringing periods of scattered showers
and thunderstorms across portions of the southern Plains and
western Gulf Coast through the weekend.

The initial upper trough and associated frontal boundary will
continue moving eastward toward the Atlantic coastline on Friday.
Showers and thunderstorms will continue for portions of the Mid-
Atlantic and Northeast, as moisture continues to pool along the
boundary. Localized flash flooding will be possible for Friday as
the frontal boundary may stall. WPC Excessive Rainfall Outlook has
placed a Marginal Risk for portions of the Northeast coast.
Following
the frontal passage, surface high pressure should expand eastward
from central U.S., promoting drier conditions across the
Mississippi, Ohio, and Tennessee Valley. However, another shortwave
trough dropping southeastward from the northern Plains could
reinforce cyclonic flow across portions of eastern U.S. through the
weekend, but the evolution of this disturbance remains uncertain.
Furthermore, the potential for a secondary surface low to develop
near the East Cost, may support additional showers along the coast.
Further north, favorable low- level flow and cold-air advection
behind the frontal system may support periods of light lake-effect
showers downwind of the Great Lakes.



Oudit


Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids,
quantitative precipitation forecast, excessive rainfall outlook,
winter weather outlook probabilities, heat indices and Key Messages
are at:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ero
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ovw