Weather Prediction Center

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
301 AM EDT Sun Oct 25 2026

Valid 12Z Sun Oct 25 2026 - 12Z Tue Oct 27 2026

...There is a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of
the Central/Southern High Plains and Central/Southern Rockies on Sunday...

...There is a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of
Southeastern Florida on Sunday...

â€Snow will develop over parts of the Northern Intermountain Region into
the Northern High Plains Monday into Tuesdayâ€

An upper-level low over Southern California and the Southwest will weaken
and move northeastward to the Northern Plains by Tuesday. Moisture from
the Gulf will stream northwestward into the Southwest/Southern High
Plains, producing showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain. Therefore,
the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall with
these thunderstorms over parts of the Central/Southern High Plains and
Central/Southern Rockies on Sunday through Monday morning. The associated
heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with
urban areas, roads, small streams, narrow canyons/gullies, and burn scars
the most vulnerable.

Also on Sunday, easterly flow off the Atlantic will produce showers and
thunderstorms with heavy rain over the eastern coast of Florida.
Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive
rainfall from these thunderstorms over parts of the eastern coast of
Florida on Sunday through Monday morning. The associated heavy rain will
create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads,
small streams, and low-lying areas being the most vulnerable. In addition,
the easterly flow off the Atlantic will continue to produce showers and
thunderstorms over parts of the Southeast Coast and the east coast of
Florida through Tuesday.

Moreover, a front extending from the Upper Great Lakes southwestward to
the Southern High Plains will move eastward to off the Northeast Coast and
extend westward to the Northern Rockies by Tuesday. Rain will develop over
parts of the Upper Great Lakes into the Central Plains on Sunday.

Overnight Sunday, a low-pressure wave over the Central High Plains will
move northeastward into the Northern Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley by
Tuesday. Rain will develop over the Northern/Central Plains Sunday night
and move into the Northern Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley through Tuesday
morning. Snow will develop over parts of the Northern Plains late Sunday
night into late Monday night. Showers and thunderstorms will also move out
of the Central/Southern High Plains into the Plains by Tuesday.

In addition, a front will move onshore over the Pacific Northwest and
inland to the Northern High Plains by Tuesday. Rain will develop over the
Pacific Northwest and move inland to the Northern Intermountain Region
with snow at higher elevations Monday into Tuesday.


Ziegenfelder


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
342 AM EDT Sun Oct 25 2026

Valid 12Z Wed Oct 28 2026 - 12Z Sun Nov 01 2026


...Overview...

An upper low will meander atop British Columbia and the
northwestern U.S. mid to late week, while shortwaves farther south
serve to deepen the trough across the West. Precipitation looks to
focus across the Northwest Wednesday-Thursday, and meanwhile
tropical moisture will spread into south-central Texas for
potentially heavy rainfall. Downstream upper ridging will allow for
warmer than average temperatures to spread across much of the
eastern half of the U.S. through the week. Rounds of light to
moderate rain are possible in the Midwest to Northeast as
shortwaves traverse north of the ridge. Then by late week,
combining systems and the deepening Western trough should bring
more widespread precipitation to the Intermountain West and
broadening in the central U.S. into next weekend.


...Guidance/Predictability Assessment...

Model agreement is very good through around Friday with the
overall pattern, including the upper low slowly drifting from
British Columbia into the Northwest, deepening troughing overall in
the West, and downstream mean ridging. A multi-model blend of the
dynamical and AI individual guidance worked well to depict the
pattern.

By next weekend, more dramatic model differences start to arise as
models start to diverge with the evolution of the trough in the
West. Some guidance like the GFS and AIGFS runs pull some energy
southwest to form an upper low in the eastern Pacific, with some
energy tracking eastward in southern Canada. Meanwhile the recent
00Z ECMWF and AIFS maintain a consolidated upper low in the
Northwest drifting a bit south. Ensemble members vary considerably,
but the ensemble means generally end up as a middle ground
solution. Quickly ramped up the proportion of ensemble means in the
forecast blend by the latter part of the medium range period due
to the increasing spread.


...Weather/Hazards Highlights...

Rain and higher elevation snow are forecast for the Pacific
Northwest across the northern Great Basin and Rockies Wednesday-
Thursday with the persistent upper trough. Shortwaves in the
northern tier will also support rounds of rain and possible
thunderstorms in the Midwest. Farther south, rain and thunderstorms
are forecast for the southern Plains, ramping up by Thursday as
moisture from current Hurricane Vance streams in and produces
potentially heavy rain in the Edwards Plateau/south-central Texas.
Into late week, deepening upper troughing across the West with
Pacific and Gulf moisture inflow will lead to broadening
precipitation coverage for much of the West and increasing for the
central to east-central U.S. by next weekend. The details of where
precipitation occurs and could be moderate/heavy are dependent on
the uncertain upper-level flow, so expect changing forecast
details. Additionally, persistent easterly flow across Florida will
bring scattered showers and thunderstorms to at least its east
coast.

Well above average temperatures are expected for portions of the
central and eastern U.S. from day to day under mean upper ridging.
Highs in the 70s are forecast as far north as the Upper Great Lakes
region, with 80s reaching the Mid-Mississippi Valley, broadly
around 15-20 degrees above normal. Temperatures should be slightly
below average in the western U.S., especially for highs.


Tate


Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids,
quantitative precipitation forecast, excessive rainfall outlook,
winter weather outlook probabilities, heat indices and Key Messages
are at:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ero
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ovw

Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
452 AM EDT Sun Oct 25 2026

Valid 00Z Mon 26 Oct 2026 - 00Z Mon 02 Nov 2026

A weak boundary dropping south will keep light northeasterly flow
across the region and windward showers across Maui and the Big
Island through Monday.

Thereafter, more impactful weather is still likely to impact
portions of the state by Tuesday into Wednesday with areas of
heavy rainfall and flash flooding possible. A weak wave of low
pressure along an elongated trough axis should move across the
state during this timeframe, bringing an increase in forcing and
southeasterly low level winds and moisture transport. Favorable
right entrance region upper jet dynamics, and PWs increasing
towards 2.5" will also support heavy rainfall, and with some weak
instability forecast, thunderstorms are also a possibility. While
some uncertainty with the exact details remain, models are
starting to come into better agreement. This initial surge of
forcing should be fairly quick moving, impacting the state Tuesday
into Wednesday, and should feature a more widespread area of
showers and thunderstorms with heavy rainfall, with models
clustering in an axis from Oahu to the Big Island. Model QPF is a
touch down from earlier cycles, but given the moisture, forcing
and instability forecast, locally heavier totals are still
anticipated, and at least some flash flooding is probable.

By late Wednesday into Saturday this more widespread convection
should exit the region, with a weakening of the overall forcing.
However, PWs will remain elevated and the trough axis will remain
nearby. Thus, while probably not as widespread, periods of
locally heavy rainfall will remain possible over the state, with
the best chances across the windward portions of Maui and the Big
Island.

Chenard

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
901 PM EDT Sat Oct 24 2026
Day 1
Valid 01Z Sun Oct 25 2026 - 12Z Sun Oct 25 2026

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF
WEST TEXAS, NEW MEXICO, AND COLORADO INTO FAR WESTERN KANSAS...

...01Z Update...

Overall, made mostly minor adjustments to the previous outlook.
These included broadening the Slight Risk to cover a greater
portion of West Texas, where recent runs of the HRRR and the
latest HREF and REFS indicate the potential for localized amounts
of 1-2 inches overnight. Within this Slight Risk, guidance
continues to indicate the potential for widespread 1-2 inch
amounts, with locally heavier totals extending from south-central
New Mexico to southeastern Colorado. These amounts are likely to
cause at least scattered flash flooding concerns along and east of
the Sacramento Mountains northeastward into northeastern New
Mexico, where 3-hr FFGs are under 1.5 inches in many locations.

Pereira

...16Z Update...

Relatively minor changes were made to the outlook for this update
across western CO/NM with a westward expansion of the Slight Risk
to cover much of the San Juan Mountains into portions of
northwestern NM. This was due to early morning convective
development noted on 15Z satellite/radar across northwestern NM
into southwestern CO out ahead of a slow moving closed low across
the Southwest. Continued thunderstorm development is anticipated
over this region during the day today with increasing instability
resulting in multiple rounds of heavy rain. Given ongoing
hydrologic sensitivities over the region, the addition of an inch
or two of rain could ex

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
412 AM EDT Sun Oct 25 2026
Day 1
Valid 12Z Sun Oct 25 2026 - 12Z Mon Oct 26 2026

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND SOUTHEAST FLORIDA...

...Central and Southern High Plains...

An upper level low will track across the Four Corners region and
central Rockies today, while shortwave energy moves north across
the southern and central High Plains ahead of the low. This setup
will bring anomalously moist air into the south-Central U.S.,
tapping into Pacific and Gulf moisture that will fuel scattered to
widespread convection on the leading edge of the system. PWAT
values are expected to rise to 1-1.5 inches (2-4 standard
deviations above normal) from West Texas through the central High
Plains. The highest instability (MUCAPE 1000-1500 J/kg) is expected
to focus across portions of West Texas and New Mexico, which will
likely support intense rainfall rates up to 1-1.5 inches per hour.
Instability will be more limited over the central High Plains, but
modest instability (MUCAPE around 500 J/kg) combined with upper
level shortwave support should allow for some deeper convection
with locally heavy rainfall. Scattered instances of flash flooding
will be possible from West Texas through portions of the southern
and central High Plains, which is highlighted with a Slight Risk of
excessive rainfall for today. Soils are already saturated from
recent heavy rainfall over portions of West Texas and eastern New
Mexico, and increased runoff may heighten flash flooding concerns.
Areas near steep terrain and burn scars will also be vulnerable to
flash flooding.

A broader Marginal Risk area extends further north into the
central Plains where soils are less susceptible to flash flooding
but locally heavy rainfall may result in isolated instances of
flash flooding. Moisture will spread even further north ahead of
the system into the northern Plains, but with little instability to
work with, it will be difficult to get rainfall rates heavy enough
to pose a risk of flash flooding.

...East Coast of Florida...

A mid-level low will gradually move south over the Atlantic
parallel to the Florida Peninsula, then stall offshore of
Southeast Florida by this afternoon. This will result in a
prolonged period of northeasterly onshore flow along the East Coast
of Florida, with an emphasis over Southeast Florida. Moisture
wrapping around the northern side of the low circulation will bring
PWATs across the Peninsula up to 1.5-1.75 inches and up to 1.75-2
inches across Southeast Florida, which will support scattered to
widespread showers and storms that will form over the Atlantic and
migrate over the coast. Coastal convergence will focus the highest
precipitation totals right along the coast, which will create a
risk of isolated instances of flash flooding along the I-95
corridor south of Jacksonville. As the system stalls, precipitation
will target Southeast Florida, which is where the highest rainfall
totals are expected today. Hi-res models show rainfall totals
reaching 1-2 inches across Southeast Florida with locally higher
amounts possible. Given the sensitivity of urban areas of Southeast
Florida, scattered instances of flash flooding will be possible
and there is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall for much of this
area.

...Pacific Northwest...

A closed upper low will gradually move onshore in the Pacific
Northwest today, accompanied by steady rainfall along a leading
cold front and scattered to numerous post-frontal showers across
western Washington and Oregon. Locally heavy rainfall may be
possible, but given the dry antecedent conditions there is not
expected to be a flood threat with this system.

Dolan


Day 1 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94epoints.txt

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
412 AM EDT Sun Oct 25 2026
Day 2
Valid 12Z Mon Oct 26 2026 - 12Z Tue Oct 27 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND SOUTHEAST FLORIDA...

...Central and Southern High Plains...

The upper low will push past the Rockies into the Plains,
resulting in surface cyclogenesis over the central/northern Plains.
Scattered showers and storms are expected in the warm sector of
the system over the central and southern High Plains. Similar to
Sunday, anomalous moisture streaming ahead of the system will
spread along the trailing cold front up into the northern Plains,
but the best instability will be limited to the central and
southern High Plains, which is where the highest flash flood risk
is expected. Precipitation totals are forecast to be modest
compared to previous days, but there will likely be a period of
enhanced convection Monday afternoon into Monday evening as an
upper level shortwave moves north into the region. During this
period, the ingredients will be in place to support a threat of at
least isolated instances of flash flooding within the Marginal Risk
area.

Widespread precipitation is also expected over the northern Plains
in the vicinity of the surface low, but with little instability,
rainfall rates should remain moderate at best. Model guidance is
showing rainfall rates and totals remaining well below current FFGs
for the area, so there will be little to no flash flood risk for
this area.

...Southeast Florida...

Northeasterly onshore flow with high PWATs up to 2 inches will
continue across Southeast Florida as the mid-level low remains
stalled near the Bahamas. Eventually, the low will be absorbed by
another wave moving north over Cuba, then move northeast into the
Atlantic later this week. Meanwhile, the system will become weaker
and less organized and precipitation coverage and intensity should
decrease. Even so, scattered showers will move onshore in Southeast
Florida throughout the day on Monday, and locally heavy rainfall
will be possible. Given heavy rainfall expected on Sunday, a
Marginal Risk area was continued for Southeast Florida where there
could be isolated instances of flash flooding, especially in urban
areas.

Dolan


Day 2 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98epoints.txt

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
412 AM EDT Sun Oct 25 2026
Day 3
Valid 12Z Tue Oct 27 2026 - 12Z Wed Oct 28 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR SOUTHEAST
FLORIDA...

...Southeast Florida...

Northeasterly flow will continue across the Florida Peninsula,
with scattered showers and storms forming over the Atlantic and
moving onshore in Southeast Florida. Model guidance shows a surge
in moisture across Central and South Florida on Tuesday, with PWATs
exceeding 2 inches. This will likely support locally heavy
rainfall along the Southeast Florida coast as showers move onshore.
Isolated flash flooding could be possible in urban areas,
especially considering the previous days of heavy rainfall, so a
Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall was introduced for portions of
Southeast Florida.

Dolan

Day 3 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/99epoints.txt

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
412 AM EDT Sun Oct 25 2026
Day 4 and Day 5

Valid 12Z Wed Oct 28 2026 - 12Z Fri Oct 30 2026

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS...

A Slight risk has been introduced on day 5 (Thu) across portions of
TX, stretching from the Stockton Plateau through parts of the
western Hill Country and into south-central TX. Large scale forcing
for ascent will be driven in part by a strong southern stream
upper jet providing divergence aloft. Embedded shortwave energy
will also eject out of the East Pacific within the deep
southwesterly flow aloft, with some potential moisture and
vorticity contribution from what is currently tropical cyclone
Vance. Mid to upper level moisture sourced from the East Pacific
will combine with a strong southeasterly low level jet bringing
moisture out of the Gulf. This combination will drive PW values
well above the climatological 90th percentile for late October.

The environmental ingredients in place will support an organized
heavy rainfall event. As expected at a day 5 lead time, exact spatial
and temporal details will change some as the event nears. However
there is enough run to run consistency and model clustering...both
among physics based and AI guidance (with preference given to the
AIFS, AIGFS and ECMWF model suites)...to justify going straight to
a day 5 Slight risk. While adjustments to the risk area are
probable in subsequent updates as model guidance evolves/converges,
the currently outlined corridor represents the area of highest
probabilities at this time. We will continue to closely monitor
trends, as certainly some chance for locally significant flood
impacts from this event.

Surrounding the Slight risk, a broader Marginal risk extends
westward across West TX and into southern NM. While this region is
currently forecast to reside west of the primary heavy rainfall
axis, elevated hydrologic sensitivity exists over some of this area
from recent rainfall. Some uptick in moisture and instability is
forecast which should be sufficient for isolated to scattered
convection and localized flash flooding.

Chenard

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
412 AM EDT Sun Oct 25 2026
Day 4 and Day 5

Valid 12Z Wed Oct 28 2026 - 12Z Fri Oct 30 2026

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS...

A Slight risk has been introduced on day 5 (Thu) across portions of
TX, stretching from the Stockton Plateau through parts of the
western Hill Country and into south-central TX. Large scale forcing
for ascent will be driven in part by a strong southern stream
upper jet providing divergence aloft. Embedded shortwave energy
will also eject out of the East Pacific within the deep
southwesterly flow aloft, with some potential moisture and
vorticity contribution from what is currently tropical cyclone
Vance. Mid to upper level moisture sourced from the East Pacific
will combine with a strong southeasterly low level jet bringing
moisture out of the Gulf. This combination will drive PW values
well above the climatological 90th percentile for late October.

The environmental ingredients in place will support an organized
heavy rainfall event. As expected at a day 5 lead time, exact spatial
and temporal details will change some as the event nears. However
there is enough run to run consistency and model clustering...both
among physics based and AI guidance (with preference given to the
AIFS, AIGFS and ECMWF model suites)...to justify going straight to
a day 5 Slight risk. While adjustments to the risk area are
probable in subsequent updates as model guidance evolves/converges,
the currently outlined corridor represents the area of highest
probabilities at this time. We will continue to closely monitor
trends, as certainly some chance for locally significant flood
impacts from this event.

Surrounding the Slight risk, a broader Marginal risk extends
westward across West TX and into southern NM. While this region is
currently forecast to reside west of the primary heavy rainfall
axis, elevated hydrologic sensitivity exists over some of this area
from recent rainfall. Some uptick in moisture and instability is
forecast which should be sufficient for isolated to scattered
convection and localized flash flooding.

Chenard

Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
407 AM EDT Sun Oct 25 2026

Valid 12Z Sun Oct 25 2026 - 12Z Wed Oct 28 2026

...Colorado...
Day 1...

An upper low over northern Arizona will open into a trough as it
lifts northeast to Colorado through today. Height falls will bring
snow levels down to around 9000ft today over CO terrain. Showery
activity will lead to additional accumulation. Snow probs for >4
inches additional after 12Z are 30-60% in the higher Sangre de
Cristo and San Juan Mountains.


...Northern Plains...
Days 2-3...

The upper low crossing Colorado today will open to a trough that
takes on a negative-tilt Monday as it lifts over the Northern
Plains. The surface low track is across Kansas and eastern
Nebraska Monday with enough comma head precip expansion to have
some snow bands on the northwest side of the precip shield. This
should intersect with the Black Hills Monday along with dynamic
enough banding for some snow accumulation in northwestern South
Dakota and south-central North Dakota. Temperatures are marginal,
but any snow that falls before sunrise would have a better chance
of accumulating. Most likely forecast is for a broad swath of
T-0.5"
snow with some potential for an axis of 1-2" from the Black Hills
northeastward. Day 2 WPC snow probability of at least 2" is 20-30%
in the Black Hills.


...Cascades and Northern Rockies...
Days 1-3...

An upper low reaches the WA/OR coast this afternoon with a series
of reinforcing shortwave troughs maintaining low pressure over the
Northwest states for much of the next week. Snow levels are
generally 6000ft in the Cascades. A thermal gradient is apparent
over west-central MT with snow levels down to 3000ft east of MT
terrain and around 8000ft in ID and WY. Day 1 snow probs for >6"
are 40-60% in the highest southern WA and OR Cascades. Day 2.5 snow
probs for >6" 30-50% for the Tetons up along the ID/MT border
terrain. Day 3 snow probs for >6" are farther north over the WA
Cascades and north west MT ranges in/near Glacier NP.



For Days 1-3, the probability of significant ice across the CONUS
is less than 10 percent.


Jackson

Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
342 AM EDT Sun Oct 25 2026

Valid 12Z Wed Oct 28 2026 - 12Z Sun Nov 01 2026


...Overview...

An upper low will meander atop British Columbia and the
northwestern U.S. mid to late week, while shortwaves farther south
serve to deepen the trough across the West. Precipitation looks to
focus across the Northwest Wednesday-Thursday, and meanwhile
tropical moisture will spread into south-central Texas for
potentially heavy rainfall. Downstream upper ridging will allow for
warmer than average temperatures to spread across much of the
eastern half of the U.S. through the week. Rounds of light to
moderate rain are possible in the Midwest to Northeast as
shortwaves traverse north of the ridge. Then by late week,
combining systems and the deepening Western trough should bring
more widespread precipitation to the Intermountain West and
broadening in the central U.S. into next weekend.


...Guidance/Predictability Assessment...

Model agreement is very good through around Friday with the
overall pattern, including the upper low slowly drifting from
British Columbia into the Northwest, deepening troughing overall in
the West, and downstream mean ridging. A multi-model blend of the
dynamical and AI individual guidance worked well to depict the
pattern.

By next weekend, more dramatic model differences start to arise as
models start to diverge with the evolution of the trough in the
West. Some guidance like the GFS and AIGFS runs pull some energy
southwest to form an upper low in the eastern Pacific, with some
energy tracking eastward in southern Canada. Meanwhile the recent
00Z ECMWF and AIFS maintain a consolidated upper low in the
Northwest drifting a bit south. Ensemble members vary considerably,
but the ensemble means generally end up as a middle ground
solution. Quickly ramped up the proportion of ensemble means in the
forecast blend by the latter part of the medium range period due
to the increasing spread.


...Weather/Hazards Highlights...

Rain and higher elevation snow are forecast for the Pacific
Northwest across the northern Great Basin and Rockies Wednesday-
Thursday with the persistent upper trough. Shortwaves in the
northern tier will also support rounds of rain and possible
thunderstorms in the Midwest. Farther south, rain and thunderstorms
are forecast for the southern Plains, ramping up by Thursday as
moisture from current Hurricane Vance streams in and produces
potentially heavy rain in the Edwards Plateau/south-central Texas.
Into late week, deepening upper troughing across the West with
Pacific and Gulf moisture inflow will lead to broadening
precipitation coverage for much of the West and increasing for the
central to east-central U.S. by next weekend. The details of where
precipitation occurs and could be moderate/heavy are dependent on
the uncertain upper-level flow, so expect changing forecast
details. Additionally, persistent easterly flow across Florida will
bring scattered showers and thunderstorms to at least its east
coast.

Well above average temperatures are expected for portions of the
central and eastern U.S. from day to day under mean upper ridging.
Highs in the 70s are forecast as far north as the Upper Great Lakes
region, with 80s reaching the Mid-Mississippi Valley, broadly
around 15-20 degrees above normal. Temperatures should be slightly
below average in the western U.S., especially for highs.


Tate


Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids,
quantitative precipitation forecast, excessive rainfall outlook,
winter weather outlook probabilities, heat indices and Key Messages
are at:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ero
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ovw