Weather Prediction Center

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
300 AM EST Wed Nov 4 2026

Valid 12Z Wed Nov 04 2026 - 12Z Fri Nov 06 2026

...Rainfall spreads into the Eastern U.S. this week..

A trailing cold front continues to track towards the Ohio Valley
and Southeast this morning. Showers and thunderstorms are expected
to focus along the front for the next few days, while steady
rainfall wraps around the associated surface low over the Upper
Midwest and Great Lakes. Impacts with this activity should be
limited, although isolated heavy rainfall and severe weather is
possible today over portions of the Lower Ohio Valley and
Southeast. Over the Florida Peninsula today, locally heavy
rainfall remains possible along the southeast Florida coast, which
could drive additional flash flooding as the area remains
vulnerable from the last several days of flooding. Fortunately,
rainfall in the area will taper off after today.

In the West, an approaching upper-low from the Four Corners will
lead to increasing snowfall in the peaks of the Central Rockies.
Eventually, an emerging frontal system tomorrow will spread
precipitation into the lower elevations of the Central/Southern
High Plains. The main impact from this system will be to reinforce
the cold air behind the leading front to the east. Temperatures
over much of the Heartland will fall to slightly below normal over
the next two days with the passage of this secondary system.
Meanwhile, a weakening Pacific front will usher in modest low
elevation rainfall and mountain snows to the Northwest, although
limited impacts are expected with this activity.

Asherman


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
106 AM EST Wed Nov 4 2026

Valid 12Z Sat Nov 07 2026 - 12Z Wed Nov 11 2026


...Overview...

An active weather pattern will persist for Pacific Northwest, as
the northeastern Pacific trough extends into much of western and
north-central states bringing period of rain and possible high-
elevation snow. A potential atmospheric river event may begin
approaching the West Coast towards early next week. Meanwhile,
troughing is expected to persist across portions of eastern U.S.,
as additional shortwave troughs reinforces cyclonic flow,
prolonging showers across the Great Lakes into the Northeast. The
southern- stream disturbance across the Southwest will bring
chances for showers and thunderstorms across portions of Texas and
western Gulf coast.



...Guidance/Predictability Assessment...

The models show fairly good agreement with the deep, slow-moving
trough over the northeastern Pacific, extending toward the West
Coast, with anomalous riding downstream over much of the western
and central U.S.. The models also seem to have decent agreement on
the trough over eastern U.S. Although the broad pattern is
relatively consistent, differences remain int he amplitude and
phase of individual shortwaves, especially over the Southwest. The
GFS/GEFS show an attempt to close off a mid-level circulation over
the Southwest, which will bring uncertainty with the eastward
progression of precipitation. Additionally, a slower solution
could prolong conditions across portions of Texas and adjacent
areas, while a more progressive scenario would favor a quicker
eastward shift toward the lower Mississippi Valley. Along the
western Atlantic, uncertainty remains on the development of the
secondary coastal low that may bring additional showers along the
East Coast. Therefore, the forecast incorporated a multi-model
blend through the weekend, with less weight on the GFS. The
ensemble means were phased into the forecast for early next week
into mid-week.




...Weather/Hazards Highlights...

Persistent cyclonic flow and frontal boundaries over the
northeastern Pacific will maintain an active weather pattern across
the Pacific Northwest. Expect rain across Oregon and Washington
coastal areas and lower elevations, with possible high-elevation
snow through the weekend. By early next week, a deeper eastern
Pacific trough will increase onshore moisture transport and the
potential of a more organized atmospheric river event. This may
support showers expanding into California, while stronger winds
become possible along portions of the West Coast. Farther south,
the southern-stream trough will continue to progress eastward and
interact with Gulf moisture, bringing scattered showers and
thunderstorms across portions of Texas and western Gulf Coast
through the weekend.

Across eastern U.S., renewed shortwave energy dropping
southeastward from the northern Plains may reinforced troughing,
which will support additional periods of showers across the Great
Lakes into the Northeast through the weekend. Additionally, a
potential development of a coastal low may bring additional showers
and gusty winds along the Mid-Atantic and Northeast coast,
although the timing and track remains uncertain. Father north,
cold-air advection behind the frontal passages may support periods
of lake- effect downwind of the Great Lakes into early next week.



Oudit


Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids,
quantitative precipitation forecast, excessive rainfall outlook,
winter weather outlook probabilities, heat indices and Key Messages
are at:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ero
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ovw

Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
300 AM EST Wed Nov 4 2026

Valid 00Z Thu 05 Nov 2026 - 00Z Thu 12 Nov 2026

Easterly trades are expected to prevail across the islands
through the period. NHC continues to highlight the likelihood that
a broad area of low pressure centered over the western portion of
the East Pacific basin will become better organized, with a
tropical depression expected to develop as the system moves west
to west-northwestward into the Central Pacific basin later this
week. This system is forecast to remain well south of the islands.
However, a broad moisture shield to its north is expected to
reach at least as far north as the Big Island Friday and Saturday,
enhancing shower development, before drier air spreads back
across the islands from the northeast early next week.

Pereira

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
310 AM EST Wed Nov 4 2026
Day 1
Valid 12Z Wed Nov 04 2026 - 12Z Thu Nov 05 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR A PORTION OF
SOUTHEAST FLORIDA AS WELL AS FOR PORTIONS OF THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE
VALLEYS AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...

...Tennessee and Ohio Valleys and Southern Appalachians...

A slow-moving cold front moving across the lower Ohio and
Tennessee Valleys this morning will continue to push east into the
upper valleys and southern Appalachians today. Training showers
with a few embedded thunderstorms are expected to persist through
the day. Those thunderstorms could produce rainfall rates of 1-1.5
inches at times, which could cause an isolated flash flooding
threat. This is mostly due to the influx of abundant Gulf moisture
with PWATs to 1.75 inches. Working against significant flooding are
the very dry antecedent soil conditions from an entire second half
of October with very little to no rain. Instability will also limit
rainfall rates, as values in most of the Marginal Risk area
struggle to get even to 1,000 J/kg. The Southern Appalachians could
have a bit higher flash flooding risk due to the terrain influences
and added upslope wringing out additional rainfall on those local
areas.

...Southeast Florida...

A final day of continued onshore light easterly flow with an
abundance of tropical moisture will once again promote any storms
having a heavy rainfall and consequent flash flooding risk today.
As has been the case the past few days, the storms will form over
the straits between the northwest Bahamas and Florida, then drift
east towards the urban corridor between West Palm Beach and Miami.
This area has been in this pattern for over a week, so the soils in
this normally flood-resistant area are fully saturated. Thus, any
new rainfall will immediately convert to runoff. While storm
coverage is expected to be much more isolated than previous days,
the potential for flash flooding development remains high enough to
keep the inherited Marginal Risk ongoing with few changes.
Fortunately by tomorrow, developing northerly flow will advect
significantly drier air into south Florida, allowing the area to
begin a much drier period.

Wegman


Day 1 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94epoints.txt

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
310 AM EST Wed Nov 4 2026
Day 1
Valid 12Z Wed Nov 04 2026 - 12Z Thu Nov 05 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR A PORTION OF
SOUTHEAST FLORIDA AS WELL AS FOR PORTIONS OF THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE
VALLEYS AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...

...Tennessee and Ohio Valleys and Southern Appalachians...

A slow-moving cold front moving across the lower Ohio and
Tennessee Valleys this morning will continue to push east into the
upper valleys and southern Appalachians today. Training showers
with a few embedded thunderstorms are expected to persist through
the day. Those thunderstorms could produce rainfall rates of 1-1.5
inches at times, which could cause an isolated flash flooding
threat. This is mostly due to the influx of abundant Gulf moisture
with PWATs to 1.75 inches. Working against significant flooding are
the very dry antecedent soil conditions from an entire second half
of October with very little to no rain. Instability will also limit
rainfall rates, as values in most of the Marginal Risk area
struggle to get even to 1,000 J/kg. The Southern Appalachians could
have a bit higher flash flooding risk due to the terrain influences
and added upslope wringing out additional rainfall on those local
areas.

...Southeast Florida...

A final day of continued onshore light easterly flow with an
abundance of tropical moisture will once again promote any storms
having a heavy rainfall and consequent flash flooding risk today.
As has been the case the past few days, the storms will form over
the straits between the northwest Bahamas and Florida, then drift
east towards the urban corridor between West Palm Beach and Miami.
This area has been in this pattern for over a week, so the soils in
this normally flood-resistant area are fully saturated. Thus, any
new rainfall will immediately convert to runoff. While storm
coverage is expected to be much more isolated than previous days,
the potential for flash flooding development remains high enough to
keep the inherited Marginal Risk ongoing with few changes.
Fortunately by tomorrow, developing northerly flow will advect
significantly drier air into south Florida, allowing the area to
begin a much drier period.

Wegman


Day 1 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94epoints.txt

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
310 AM EST Wed Nov 4 2026
Day 2
Valid 12Z Thu Nov 05 2026 - 12Z Fri Nov 06 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than five percent.

Wegman


Day 2 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98epoints.txt

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
310 AM EST Wed Nov 4 2026
Day 3
Valid 12Z Fri Nov 06 2026 - 12Z Sat Nov 07 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...

Only minor tweaks were made to the inherited Marginal Risk area for
southern New England, NYC and Long Island on Friday. There remains
considerable uncertainty as to where the western edge of the rain
shield will be, with the best forecast looking like it will be
right over NYC and the lower Hudson Valley. A wave may try to push
the plume of heaviest rain west across NYC Friday afternoon,
before the rain shield wraps up and pushes everything east out to
sea. There's more certainty that eastern Long Island through
southern New England will be stuck in the axis of heaviest rainfall
for much of the period. Despite a prolonged period of dry weather
going into this event, as well as limited instability generally
sub-500 J/kg, PWATs around 1.5 inches, urban, and upslope
enhancement should work to cancel those out. This will result in
isolated instances of flash flooding in urban and poor-drainage
areas. Any additional eastward shifts in the plume would remove the
NYC metro from the Marginal with future updates.

Wegman

Day 3 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/99epoints.txt

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
310 AM EST Wed Nov 4 2026
Day 4 and Day 5
Valid 12Z Sat Nov 07 2026 - 12Z Mon Nov 09 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than five percent.

Pereira

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
310 AM EST Wed Nov 4 2026
Day 4 and Day 5
Valid 12Z Sat Nov 07 2026 - 12Z Mon Nov 09 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than five percent.

Pereira

Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
217 AM EST Wed Nov 4 2026

Valid 12Z Wed Nov 04 2026 - 12Z Sat Nov 07 2026

...Central Rockies...
Day 1...

A closed 500mb low tracking east out of the Great Basin will reach
the Central Rockies Wednesday afternoon, bringing an influx of
anomalous moisture to the region. ECMWF guidance shows PWs topping
the 90th climatological percentile traversing the Central Rockies
Wednesday night. The region also lies beneath the divergent left-
exit region of a ~110kt 250mb jet streak that will support enhanced
upper-level divergence. In addition, 700mb winds in lee of the CO
Rockies will gradually increase out of the east as the 700mb low
tracks over central CO Wednesday afternoon, fostering enhanced
upslope flow along the Front Range. The heaviest snowfall is
likely to occur as the 700mb low passes through early Wednesday
evening and coming to an end early Thursday.

Snowfall rates >1"/hr in the Sawatch/Mosquito ranges and into the
higher CO Front Range peaks are likely (>70% per the 00Z REFS) and
could even surpass 2"/hr at times (40-70%). The 00-06Z Thursday
time period is likely to produce heaviest snowfall totals >8" at
elevations above 11,000ft in central CO. The closed low will open
up into a positively-tilted upper trough early Thursday morning and
snowfall rapidly concludes before sunrise Thursday. The PPP shows
moderate-to-high chances (50-70%) for snowfall totals >8" in the
CO mountain ranges above 10,000ft. The peaks of the Sawatch and
Mosquito Ranges do contain moderate chances (20-50%) for localized
snowfall totals >12". The WSSI-P shows many of these remote
mountain ranges as having 30-70% probabilities for Minor Impacts,
which may include some locally hazardous travel conditions over
nearby passes.


The probability of significant ice across the CONUS is less than 10
percent.


Mullinax/Snell

Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
106 AM EST Wed Nov 4 2026

Valid 12Z Sat Nov 07 2026 - 12Z Wed Nov 11 2026


...Overview...

An active weather pattern will persist for Pacific Northwest, as
the northeastern Pacific trough extends into much of western and
north-central states bringing period of rain and possible high-
elevation snow. A potential atmospheric river event may begin
approaching the West Coast towards early next week. Meanwhile,
troughing is expected to persist across portions of eastern U.S.,
as additional shortwave troughs reinforces cyclonic flow,
prolonging showers across the Great Lakes into the Northeast. The
southern- stream disturbance across the Southwest will bring
chances for showers and thunderstorms across portions of Texas and
western Gulf coast.



...Guidance/Predictability Assessment...

The models show fairly good agreement with the deep, slow-moving
trough over the northeastern Pacific, extending toward the West
Coast, with anomalous riding downstream over much of the western
and central U.S.. The models also seem to have decent agreement on
the trough over eastern U.S. Although the broad pattern is
relatively consistent, differences remain int he amplitude and
phase of individual shortwaves, especially over the Southwest. The
GFS/GEFS show an attempt to close off a mid-level circulation over
the Southwest, which will bring uncertainty with the eastward
progression of precipitation. Additionally, a slower solution
could prolong conditions across portions of Texas and adjacent
areas, while a more progressive scenario would favor a quicker
eastward shift toward the lower Mississippi Valley. Along the
western Atlantic, uncertainty remains on the development of the
secondary coastal low that may bring additional showers along the
East Coast. Therefore, the forecast incorporated a multi-model
blend through the weekend, with less weight on the GFS. The
ensemble means were phased into the forecast for early next week
into mid-week.




...Weather/Hazards Highlights...

Persistent cyclonic flow and frontal boundaries over the
northeastern Pacific will maintain an active weather pattern across
the Pacific Northwest. Expect rain across Oregon and Washington
coastal areas and lower elevations, with possible high-elevation
snow through the weekend. By early next week, a deeper eastern
Pacific trough will increase onshore moisture transport and the
potential of a more organized atmospheric river event. This may
support showers expanding into California, while stronger winds
become possible along portions of the West Coast. Farther south,
the southern-stream trough will continue to progress eastward and
interact with Gulf moisture, bringing scattered showers and
thunderstorms across portions of Texas and western Gulf Coast
through the weekend.

Across eastern U.S., renewed shortwave energy dropping
southeastward from the northern Plains may reinforced troughing,
which will support additional periods of showers across the Great
Lakes into the Northeast through the weekend. Additionally, a
potential development of a coastal low may bring additional showers
and gusty winds along the Mid-Atantic and Northeast coast,
although the timing and track remains uncertain. Father north,
cold-air advection behind the frontal passages may support periods
of lake- effect downwind of the Great Lakes into early next week.



Oudit


Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids,
quantitative precipitation forecast, excessive rainfall outlook,
winter weather outlook probabilities, heat indices and Key Messages
are at:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ero
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ovw