Weather Prediction Center

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
218 PM EST Sun Nov 15 2026

Valid 00Z Mon Nov 16 2026 - 00Z Wed Nov 18 2026

...Snow across the Rockies...

...Rain across the Western and Central Gulf Coast into early
Monday...

...Rain and snow downwind from the Great Lakes through Sunday
evening...

An upper-level trough will slowly move away from the Northeast and
produce spotty higher-elevation snow across parts of New York
State and New England, with lower-elevation rain through Sunday
evening. In addition, some of the highest elevations of West
Virginia will get wet snow through Sunday evening. High pressure
will move into the Ohio Valley by Monday and inching into the
Central Appalachians by Tuesday. The high pressure will create
clear skies and calm wind across parts of the Southeast through
Tuesday.

Upper-level energy over Texas will move eastward to the Southeast
by Tuesday, producing rain with embedded thunderstorms over the
Southern Plains through Sunday evening. Showers will linger over
the Lower Mississippi Valley through late Monday morning. Easterly
flow off the Atlantic will create scattered showers along the
Florida Coast and associated Gulf Coast Tuesday.

Meanwhile, a front over the Northwest moves inland to the Rockies
by Tuesday. The system will produce rain and higher-elevation snow
over parts of the Northwest through Monday morning. Snow and
lower-elevation rain will develop over the Northern Intermountain
Region into the western Rockies by Tuesday. Along with the front,
snow levels will lower over parts of the Northern Intermountain
Region and the Sierra Mountains in California, producing light
snow over the highest elevations on Sunday into Tuesday morning.
The snow has prompted Winter Weather Advisories over parts of the
Sierra Mountains through Tuesday.



Ziegenfelder


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
153 PM EST Sun Nov 15 2026

Valid 12Z Wed Nov 18 2026 - 12Z Sun Nov 22 2026

...Heavy rain and heavy mountain snow likely in California
Wednesday-Thursday...


...Overview...

The upper level flow pattern across the CONUS during the upcoming
medium range period will remain amplified with mean troughing over
the West and an upper ridge shifting across the East. An initial
shortwave will track from the Rockies into the Plains midweek,
while a strong upper low and associated atmospheric river brings
widespread heavy rain and snow to especially California, spreading
across the West and eventually the Central U.S. with time.
Additionally, a shortwave moving across Florida and easterly flow
at the surface will provide support for showers and thunderstorms
at least along Florida's east coast. Temperatures are forecast to
warm to above normal in the eastern half of the U.S. under the
ridge.


...Guidance/Predictability Assessment...

Model agreement remains good with the initial upper trough and
surface low pressure system tracking across the Rockies/Plains
midweek, while the next upper low moving into the West Coast late
Wednesday into Thursday begins with good agreement as well. There
is increasing model spread with how quickly it moves eastward into
late week and spins up a surface low tracking from the Plains to
Upper Midwest. Previous ECMWF runs had been on the slow side moving
east, but the new 12Z ECMWF has come in faster, so guidance
generally seems to be converging on a faster trend. However, even
minor differences could bring sensible weather differences like
precipitation placement and type. Models show reasonable consensus
with the next upper low moving toward the West next weekend.

Farther east, an upper ridge should move through the south-central
to eastern U.S. with good consensus. However, there is some
shortwave energy left behind over Florida and vicinity with some
uncertainties of what may emerge from it. AI/dynamical models and
ensembles are showing higher probabilities of a surface low
developing to the east of Florida late week and moving north next
weekend, but lots of uncertainty in its depth and track. The 12Z
GFS is alone (so far) in showing the low moving inland into the
Southeast, but some models/members show the low close enough to the
coast to bring rain to the Eastern Seaboard. Will continue to
monitor this potential.

The WPC forecast was based on a multi-model dynamical and AI blend
for much of the period, with some ensemble means for the latter
part of the period to mitigate individual model differences.


...Weather/Hazards Highlights...

The initial shortwave lifting into the north-central U.S. on
Wednesday may spread some light precipitation across parts of the
Central U.S. and the Great Lakes. The most impactful system during
the period will be an atmospheric river to bring moderate to heavy
rainfall for coastal and portions of interior California Wednesday
into Thursday, including the risk of flooding. Heavy snow is also
likely in the mountains, especially the Sierra, parts of Utah, and
the San Juans. Lesser amounts of rain and snow are forecast to
spread across the rest of the Intermountain West, and then
precipitation should move out into the Plains late week. Snow is
possible on the north and west side of the surface low/frontal
system, and the northern/central High Plains may need to monitor
this snow potential. High winds are also expected behind the
frontal system across the Plains Friday-Saturday.

Rain is forecast to continue into the medium range period for the
east coast of Florida with a lingering trough and potential wave of
low pressure nearby. Localized flooding is possible especially in
urban areas. North of Florida, the East Coast should stay dry
through late week, though there is some signal for a low pressure
system to move north across the western Atlantic, which may bring
rain to coastal areas by next weekend.

Cooler than average high temperatures will remain across
California into the central Great Basin underneath upper troughing.
Meanwhile the Upper Midwest can expect above normal conditions
into Wednesday under the upper ridge, with widespread highs in the
50s. The warmer than average temperatures should gradually spread
east and south later week and next weekend, for highs in the 60s as
far north as the Great Lakes region and 70s through the southern
tier.


Tate/Santorelli


Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids,
quantitative precipitation forecast, excessive rainfall outlook,
winter weather outlook probabilities, heat indices and Key Messages
are at:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ero
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ovw

Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
406 AM EST Sun Nov 15 2026

Valid 00Z Mon 16 Nov 2026 - 00Z Mon 23 Nov 2026

A passing/dissipating front and area of high pressure in its wake
to the northeast of the state will bring a period of enhanced,
gustier trade winds into early next week. Stronger flow and
greater moisture along/ahead of the dissipating boundary will lead
to a period of more moderate to heavy Mauka/windward showers
through mid-next week, particularly for the Big Island. There will
likely be a brief lull in stronger trades late next week as the
high weakens before another front with stronger high pressure in
its wake brings another round of gustier winds into next
weekended. Shower activity also looks to moderate some compared to
early in the week but increase again into next weekend.

Putnam

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
617 PM EST Sun Nov 15 2026
Day 1
Valid 01Z Mon Nov 16 2026 - 12Z Mon Nov 16 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Roth


Day 1 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94epoints.txt

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
617 PM EST Sun Nov 15 2026
Day 2
Valid 12Z Mon Nov 16 2026 - 12Z Tue Nov 17 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Hurley


Day 2 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98epoints.txt

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
617 PM EST Sun Nov 15 2026
Day 3
Valid 12Z Tue Nov 17 2026 - 12Z Wed Nov 18 2026

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF
THE FLORIDA EAST COAST....

...Eastern Florida...
2000Z Update: Based on the latest guidance, including the 12Z AI
ECMWF and GFS, have hoisted a Slight Risk (Level 2/4) across east-
southeast parts of the FL Peninsula, including the Gold Coast,
Treasure Coast, and parts of the Space Coast up to Cape Canaveral.
Positively-tilted mid-upper level trough across the eastern Gulf on
Tue-Wed will slowly track across the Peninsula during the rest of
the week, setting up a multi-day rainfall event. PWs are expected
to climb to 1.75-2.00", while the strengthening low-level easterly
flow off the Atlantic (20-30kts at 850 mb) opposes the mean 850-300
mb flow. Deep-layer instability will be a limiting factor across
this area, north of the surface front which will drop south of the
Keys. MUCAPEs are expected to remain below 1000 J/Kg, generally
peaking around 500-750 J/Kg. However given the persistence (longer
duration), expect there could be a few more runoff issues towards
the tail end of the Day 3 period (Tuesday night into Wednesday
morning), likely carrying over into Day 4. We confined the Slight
Risk to the areas that had the highest 3" probabilities on Day 3
per the GEFS/ECENS/CMC.

Hurley

Previous Discussion...

Surface high pressure parked over the central Appalachians will
keep persistent easterly low-level flow in place across much of
the eastern Florida peninsula on Tuesday into early Wednesday
morning from the Georgia line to Lake Okeechobee (in broad
geographic terms), Precipitable water values of 1.25-1.5" are
forecast, and the low- level flow should bring instability off the
warmer than average Gulf Stream. Effective bulk shear should be
sufficient for organized convection. Hourly rain amounts as high as
1.75" would be possible wherever short, training bands manage to
materialize. Maintained the Marginal Risk area introduced on
Saturday for portions of Eastern Florida with few changes needed.

Bann

...Parts of the Southwest and Lower Great Basin...
2000Z Update: Expanded the Marginal Risk across central-northern AZ
into southeast NV and southern UT based on the 12Z guidance trends.
These are the areas where the guidance shows MUCAPEs peaking
between 250-500 J/Kg during the day Tuesday. The QPF signal is
highest across southwest into south-central UT (southern Wasatch);
however, that is also the region devoid of instability and where
a good portion of the precipitation is expected to fall as snow.

Hurley

Previous Discussion...

An upper-trough and accompanying cold front will progress eastward
from the West Coast into the Interior West on Tuesday. Increasing
moisture along and with the frontal passage will lead to scattered
showers and thunderstorms at lower elevations across the Desert
Southwest given precipitable water values on the order of 1 inch in
the Lower Deserts. The fact that the system being progressive is
one factor against the potential for flooding. Despite that...a
Marginal Risk was introduced mainly in the west facing terrain of
northern Arizona...generally at or below 6500 feet (with
precipitation more likely to fall as snow at elevations above 7000
ft). Present indications are that hourly rainfall rates of 1.25
inches are possible whenever/wherever cells can align or merge or
mesocyclones manage to form. Rainfall this intense could lead to
issues in dry washes/arroyos or burn scars.

Bann

Day 3 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/99epoints.txt

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
617 PM EST Sun Nov 15 2026
Day 4 and Day 5

Valid 12Z Wed Nov 18 2026 - 12Z Fri Nov 20 2026

...THERE IS SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR CENTRAL COASTAL
CALIFORNIA WEDNESDAY...

...California...
An upper-trough is expected to dig southward along the West Coast
and move inland across the western U.S. early this week, with
additional reinforcements to the longwave trough coming in mid-week.
Guidance trends have been quicker/more southerly with this system
over the past couple of days. A plume of Pacific moisture/
moderately strong Atmospheric River (AR) accompanies the
associated surface system/Pacific front. The deterministic
guidance shows areal average amounts in the 2-4" range and locally
higher totals anticipated. Much of this rain is likely to fall in
a 3-6 hour period with the passage of the Pacific front. Given the
hilliness of the coastal range, including the cities in the Bay
Area, kept the Slight Risk going as there are bound to be scattered
instances of localized flooding/ponding of water in low spots.
However, despite the influx of warmer, moist Pacific air, colder
air will still be in place overall given the upper- troughing
already over the western U.S., limiting snow- level rises to around
4000 feet. This should keep the flooding threat lower along the
foothills of the Sierra Nevada as the heaviest precipitation
occurs as snow into its higher elevations.

Heavy rainfall will continue into Thursday, increasingly impacting
the Transverse Ranges of southern California. As the guidance shows
reasonable agreement, extended the Slight Risk for Wednesday into
the western Transverse Ranges and introduced a Slight Risk on
Thursday for the Transverse & Peninsular Ranges, including the
larger metro areas near the coast (Los Angeles & its suburbs as
well as San Diego).

...Eastern Florida...
A synoptic pattern with vague similarity to the one that
materialized on October 31-November 3 appears to be setting up by
mid week. Nearly antiparallel flow (low- level easterlies and
upper level westerlies) will continue through mid- to late week
across eastern Florida as a positively tilted upper level trough
cuts off a cold low near the northwestern Peninsula which then
remains quasi-stationary. Precipitable water values of 1.5-1.75"
are forecast near the East Coast of FL, and the low- level flow
should bring instability off the warmer than average Gulf Stream.
Effective bulk shear should be sufficient for organized convection.
Hourly rain amounts to 2" would be possible wherever short,
training bands or mesocyclones manage to materialize. As the GFS
has a strong signal for heavy rainfall (10"+ local amounts
Wednesday and 6"+ local amounts Thursday), and the heavy rain
pattern in eastern FL has expanded in the 12z ECMWF run when
compared to its older run, added Slight Risk areas for areas
between Cocoa Beach and coastal Palm Beach County, areas that
received very heavy rainfall two weeks ago. Localized Moderate Risk
impacts cannot be ruled out.

Roth/Putnam

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
617 PM EST Sun Nov 15 2026
Day 4 and Day 5

Valid 12Z Wed Nov 18 2026 - 12Z Fri Nov 20 2026

...THERE IS SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR CENTRAL COASTAL
CALIFORNIA WEDNESDAY...

...California...
An upper-trough is expected to dig southward along the West Coast
and move inland across the western U.S. early this week, with
additional reinforcements to the longwave trough coming in mid-week.
Guidance trends have been quicker/more southerly with this system
over the past couple of days. A plume of Pacific moisture/
moderately strong Atmospheric River (AR) accompanies the
associated surface system/Pacific front. The deterministic
guidance shows areal average amounts in the 2-4" range and locally
higher totals anticipated. Much of this rain is likely to fall in
a 3-6 hour period with the passage of the Pacific front. Given the
hilliness of the coastal range, including the cities in the Bay
Area, kept the Slight Risk going as there are bound to be scattered
instances of localized flooding/ponding of water in low spots.
However, despite the influx of warmer, moist Pacific air, colder
air will still be in place overall given the upper- troughing
already over the western U.S., limiting snow- level rises to around
4000 feet. This should keep the flooding threat lower along the
foothills of the Sierra Nevada as the heaviest precipitation
occurs as snow into its higher elevations.

Heavy rainfall will continue into Thursday, increasingly impacting
the Transverse Ranges of southern California. As the guidance shows
reasonable agreement, extended the Slight Risk for Wednesday into
the western Transverse Ranges and introduced a Slight Risk on
Thursday for the Transverse & Peninsular Ranges, including the
larger metro areas near the coast (Los Angeles & its suburbs as
well as San Diego).

...Eastern Florida...
A synoptic pattern with vague similarity to the one that
materialized on October 31-November 3 appears to be setting up by
mid week. Nearly antiparallel flow (low- level easterlies and
upper level westerlies) will continue through mid- to late week
across eastern Florida as a positively tilted upper level trough
cuts off a cold low near the northwestern Peninsula which then
remains quasi-stationary. Precipitable water values of 1.5-1.75"
are forecast near the East Coast of FL, and the low- level flow
should bring instability off the warmer than average Gulf Stream.
Effective bulk shear should be sufficient for organized convection.
Hourly rain amounts to 2" would be possible wherever short,
training bands or mesocyclones manage to materialize. As the GFS
has a strong signal for heavy rainfall (10"+ local amounts
Wednesday and 6"+ local amounts Thursday), and the heavy rain
pattern in eastern FL has expanded in the 12z ECMWF run when
compared to its older run, added Slight Risk areas for areas
between Cocoa Beach and coastal Palm Beach County, areas that
received very heavy rainfall two weeks ago. Localized Moderate Risk
impacts cannot be ruled out.

Roth/Putnam

Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
336 PM EST Sun Nov 15 2026

Valid 00Z Mon Nov 16 2026 - 00Z Thu Nov 19 2026

...Western United States...
Days 1-3...

An atmospheric river (AR) associated with a potent northeast
Pacific cyclone is directing rounds of showers and mountain snow
over the Pacific Northwest and northern CA. Snow levels have begun
lowering over the Cascades, Olympics, and Siskiyou/Shasta
mountains that will persist through tonight. The air-mass is not
especially cold, considering the source region is from the North
Pacific, so snow levels in the Oregon Cascades on southward to the
Siskiyou/Shasta/Salmon mountains of northern CA are generally
expected to hover around 4,000ft at the lowest through the start of
the week. The Olympics and Washington Cascades will see snow levels
dip to as low as ~3,500ft tonight and Monday morning. Accumulating
snowfall is expected to wane across the Cascades of OR/WA by early
Monday (lone exception being the more remote elevations above
5,000ft). Probabilities for additional snowfall totals >4" through
tonight are between 20-40% for elevations above 5,000ft.

The footprint of the AR will stretch southward into the Sierra
Nevada with the heaviest snowfall expected Sunday night and into
the day on Monday. Snow levels as low as 4,500ft are possible in
the northern Sierra Nevada, but areas of heavier snowfall are
likely to reside at/above 6,000ft in elevation until Monday night,
when snow levels finally drop to 5,000ft. Latest probabilities
show moderate-to-high chances (50-80%) for snowfall totals >6"
along I-80 near Donner Pass and low-to- moderate chances (20-40%)
along US-50 near Phillips and Twin Bridges. WSSI-P shows greater
confidence in Minor Impacts (winter conditions; use caution while
driving) at these aforementioned CA passes (50-70% odds), but it is
noteworthy that there are low chances (10-30%) for Moderate
Impacts which suggest the potential for travel disruptions.

The AR works its way farther inland across the Great Basin and
northward across the Blue Mountains and Northern Rockies beginning
Sunday night. The upper trough slows down as it moves into the
Intermountain West late Monday and into Tuesday, providing a
prolonged window for moderate to occasionally heavy snowfall rates
across the mountain ranges through the first half of the week. The
mountains ranges seeing the longest period of favorable upper-
level divergence, anomalous moisture aloft, and upslope enhancement
are the Blue and Sawtooth Mountains. By Monday night, PWs across
the Northern Rockies approach the 97.5 climatological percentile,
providing more than enough moisture to support accumulating
mountain snow.Snow will taper off in these mountain ranges by
Wednesday morning. Latest probabilities depict high chances (>70%)
for >12" of snow in the Blue Mountains and moderate chances
(40-60%) for snow totals >8" at/above 6,000ft in the Sawtooth and
Bitterroots.

The AR will have cleared the Sierra Nevada by Tuesday morning and
mountain snow will work its way east across the Great Basin and
towards both the Wasatch and Uinta, then into the Colorado Rockies
late Tuesday above 8,000 ft. Latest probabilities show high
chances (>70%) for >8" of snow in the more remote sections of the
Wasatch, Uinta, and at/above 10,000ft in the San Juans.


...Northern & Central California Mountains...
Day 3-3.5...

A vigorous 500mb closed low will approach California and direct
heavy precipitation at the Golden State starting Tuesday night.
Ahead of the surface cyclone in the northeast Pacific is a strong
warm front that will initially direct an atmospheric river (AR) at
the Coastal Range and Sierra Nevada Tuesday night with PWs that are
exceeding the 90th climatological percentile. Strong 40-50kt SWrly
850mb winds will foster more intense vertical ascent along these
mountain ranges on Wednesday. Snow levels in the
Salmon/Trinity/Shasta will range between 4,000-5,000ft with snow
levels in the Sierra Nevada starting out near 4,000ft initially,
then rising to a little over 5,000ft by Wednesday afternoon.

Hourly snowfall rates of 1-2"/hr are likely in the northern CA
mountain ranges at/above 5,000ft on Wednesday. Impacts at pass
levels (Donner Pass I-80, Twin Bridges US-50) are likely to worsen
throughout the day on Wednesday as the WSSI-P Moderate shows
probabilities increasing to moderate chances (40-60%) by Wednesday
afternoon. This implies increasing chances for hazardous travel and
potential closures/restrictions at these passes on Wednesday. The
latest forecast calls for 6-12" of snow along the spine of the
northern Sierra Nevada through 00Z Thursday. Elevations above
5,000ft in the Trinity/Shasta/Salmon sport high chances (>70%) for
snowfall totals >8" through 00Z Thursday with the peaks of these
ranges likely to surpass 12".

This is a multi-day event that will negatively affect travel across
mountain passes into the second half of the week. For additional
forecast information beyond Day 3, please refer to the WPC Medium
Range discussion and local WFO AFDs.


The probability of significant ice across the CONUS is less than
10 percent.


Mullinax

Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
153 PM EST Sun Nov 15 2026

Valid 12Z Wed Nov 18 2026 - 12Z Sun Nov 22 2026

...Heavy rain and heavy mountain snow likely in California
Wednesday-Thursday...


...Overview...

The upper level flow pattern across the CONUS during the upcoming
medium range period will remain amplified with mean troughing over
the West and an upper ridge shifting across the East. An initial
shortwave will track from the Rockies into the Plains midweek,
while a strong upper low and associated atmospheric river brings
widespread heavy rain and snow to especially California, spreading
across the West and eventually the Central U.S. with time.
Additionally, a shortwave moving across Florida and easterly flow
at the surface will provide support for showers and thunderstorms
at least along Florida's east coast. Temperatures are forecast to
warm to above normal in the eastern half of the U.S. under the
ridge.


...Guidance/Predictability Assessment...

Model agreement remains good with the initial upper trough and
surface low pressure system tracking across the Rockies/Plains
midweek, while the next upper low moving into the West Coast late
Wednesday into Thursday begins with good agreement as well. There
is increasing model spread with how quickly it moves eastward into
late week and spins up a surface low tracking from the Plains to
Upper Midwest. Previous ECMWF runs had been on the slow side moving
east, but the new 12Z ECMWF has come in faster, so guidance
generally seems to be converging on a faster trend. However, even
minor differences could bring sensible weather differences like
precipitation placement and type. Models show reasonable consensus
with the next upper low moving toward the West next weekend.

Farther east, an upper ridge should move through the south-central
to eastern U.S. with good consensus. However, there is some
shortwave energy left behind over Florida and vicinity with some
uncertainties of what may emerge from it. AI/dynamical models and
ensembles are showing higher probabilities of a surface low
developing to the east of Florida late week and moving north next
weekend, but lots of uncertainty in its depth and track. The 12Z
GFS is alone (so far) in showing the low moving inland into the
Southeast, but some models/members show the low close enough to the
coast to bring rain to the Eastern Seaboard. Will continue to
monitor this potential.

The WPC forecast was based on a multi-model dynamical and AI blend
for much of the period, with some ensemble means for the latter
part of the period to mitigate individual model differences.


...Weather/Hazards Highlights...

The initial shortwave lifting into the north-central U.S. on
Wednesday may spread some light precipitation across parts of the
Central U.S. and the Great Lakes. The most impactful system during
the period will be an atmospheric river to bring moderate to heavy
rainfall for coastal and portions of interior California Wednesday
into Thursday, including the risk of flooding. Heavy snow is also
likely in the mountains, especially the Sierra, parts of Utah, and
the San Juans. Lesser amounts of rain and snow are forecast to
spread across the rest of the Intermountain West, and then
precipitation should move out into the Plains late week. Snow is
possible on the north and west side of the surface low/frontal
system, and the northern/central High Plains may need to monitor
this snow potential. High winds are also expected behind the
frontal system across the Plains Friday-Saturday.

Rain is forecast to continue into the medium range period for the
east coast of Florida with a lingering trough and potential wave of
low pressure nearby. Localized flooding is possible especially in
urban areas. North of Florida, the East Coast should stay dry
through late week, though there is some signal for a low pressure
system to move north across the western Atlantic, which may bring
rain to coastal areas by next weekend.

Cooler than average high temperatures will remain across
California into the central Great Basin underneath upper troughing.
Meanwhile the Upper Midwest can expect above normal conditions
into Wednesday under the upper ridge, with widespread highs in the
50s. The warmer than average temperatures should gradually spread
east and south later week and next weekend, for highs in the 60s as
far north as the Great Lakes region and 70s through the southern
tier.


Tate/Santorelli


Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids,
quantitative precipitation forecast, excessive rainfall outlook,
winter weather outlook probabilities, heat indices and Key Messages
are at:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ero
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ovw