Weather Prediction Center

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 AM EDT Fri Apr 10 2026

Valid 12Z Fri Apr 10 2026 - 12Z Sun Apr 12 2026

...Active weather pattern in the western U.S. will bring heavy mountain
snow for the Sierra Nevada and unsettled but warmer than normal conditions
from the Great Basin to the northern High Plains...

...Scattered severe thunderstorms with heavy rain today across the Central
Plains will shift focus into the southern High Plains later on Saturday...

...Warm air surges from the central U.S. toward New England with a round
of rain ahead of a frontal boundary...

An increasingly active weather pattern is in store for the western U.S.
during the next couple of days. California will receive the brunt of the
storminess as twin low pressure systems from the Pacific will move onshore
in quick succession. The Sierra Nevada will likely see heavy snowfall
measured in feet over the next couple of days while the lower elevations
will be drenched by 1 to 2 inches of rain. The moisture will penetrate
further inland across the Great Basin today, overspreading much of the
Rockies during the weekend with high-elevation snow. A warming trend is
forecast to accompany the inclement weather through the interior western
U.S. during the weekend as a low pressure system consolidates over the
northern High Plains Saturday into early Sunday. However, clouds and
precipitation will keep daytime temperatures cooler than normal across
California.

A frontal boundary stretching from the central Plains through the
Northeast will allow warm air to surge from the southern Plains toward the
eastern U.S. with the most noticeable warm up across the Northeast. A
round of rain will move through the Ohio Valley to New England followed by
a cool down during the weekend. Meanwhile, scattered strong to severe
thunderstorms with heavy rain early today across the Midwest behind the
front will shift focus into the southern High Plains later on Saturday as
moisture from the Gulf enters the southern Plains. The thunderstorms are
expected to be stronger and could become severe later on Saturday across
the southern High Plains ahead of a dry line forced by the low pressure
system developing over the northern High Plains. The potential severe
weather should advance farther east across the rest of the southern Plains
into Sunday morning. Meanwhile, rain and embedded strong thunderstorms
should also be expanding across the upper Midwest Saturday night into
Sunday morning ahead of a warm front.

Temperature trends will remain highly variable across the country. Much of
the central and eastern U.S. will experience a significant warming trend,
with temperatures averaging 10 to 20 degrees above seasonal norms.
Unseasonable warmth will become more common across the Plains and the
Southeast, with some record-breaking highs possible by Saturday.
Conversely, the Northern Plains will remain cooler behind the cold front;
California will see daytime temperatures drop below normal as the twin
Pacific storms move through, while parts of the Northeast and Great Lakes
recover from a recent cool spell to near-normal seasonable values.

Kong/Eovino


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
306 AM EDT Fri Apr 10 2026

Valid 12Z Mon Apr 13 2026 - 12Z Fri Apr 17 2026

***Multiple rounds of heavy rain and severe weather across the
Plains next week***

...General Overview...

An amplified upper level flow pattern will be in place next week
across the Continental U.S., with an upper ridge situated east of
the Mississippi River, and a general trough over the West. Multiple
impulses will eject eastward across the Plains and provide forcing
for episodes of heavy rain and severe thunderstorms from the
southern Plains to the Great Lakes. Summer-like temperatures will
be commonplace across the eastern half of the country with highs
well into the 80s and lower 90s by the middle of the week.

....Guidance/Predictability Assessment...

The 00Z model guidance suite features good overall agreement on the
synoptic scale for Monday and Tuesday, so a general deterministic
model blend works well as a starting point. Recent runs of the GFS
have been faster with ejecting shortwave energy eastward from the
Plains to the Great Lakes, with a quicker cold front passage across
the Ohio Valley and Northeast/Mid-Atlantic when compared to the
non-NCEP guidance. There are also noteworthy differences between
the ECMWF and the AIFS guidance in regards to high temperatures
across the Eastern U.S for the middle of the week, with the AIFS
portraying a more realistic scenario compared to the extreme values
noted in the operational ECMWF. Differences across the northern
U.S. become significant by the end of the week, so an ensemble mean
approach is increasingly used for fronts and pressures. The NBM
appeared to be a reasonable starting point for most areas of the
country for temperatures, and QPF was raised slightly across the
Plains to the Midwest where convective training is possible and
winds raised some across Colorado and New Mexico.

...Weather/Hazards Highlights...

The next storm system across the Western U.S. will bring a
relatively strong cold front across the western U.S. that will
deliver widespread precipitation chances, including rain and
mountain snow, through Monday into early Tuesday. This same front
will emerge across the western High Plains and bring heavy snow
and high wind potential to portions of the central/southern
Rockies. Precipitation chances should decrease across much of the
West later into Tuesday, but precipitation chances will increase
across the Pacific Northwest as the next upper low/trough
approaches from the north.

A very active weather pattern develops across the Central U.S.
through the middle of the week, with multiple rounds of strong to
severe thunderstorms expected from Texas to the Midwest states,
given favorable wind shear and instability in place. The moisture
will be channeled northward from the western Gulf to the Midwest
between the eastern U.S. upper ridge and the trough over the
Rockies, and the limited eastward progression will likely result in
areas that have excessive rainfall leading to some instances of
flash flooding. Marginal Risk areas will be valid across portions
of the Midwest to the western Great Lakes Monday into Tuesday, with
greater coverage of convection likely on Tuesday. Additional heavy
rainfall is likely beyond this time across portions of the central
and southern Plains.

Temperatures will also be making weather headlines next week across
much of the Eastern U.S., with highs reaching into the mid to upper
80s for many areas, and even some lower 90s across the Southeast
and Mid-Atlantic region going into the middle of the week as the
early season heatwave reaches it peak. There should be a modest
cooling trend towards the end of the week as the frontal boundary
drops southward from the Ohio Valley to the Mid-Atlantic, and
remaining hot across the Deep South and the Carolinas. Out West,
readings should generally be near to below average with the upper
trough in place and increased cloud cover and precipitation.

Hamrick


Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids,
quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF), excessive rainfall
outlook (ERO), winter weather outlook (WWO) probabilities, heat
indices, and Key Messages can be accessed from:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ero
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ovw

Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
445 AM EDT Fri Apr 10 2026

Valid 00Z Sat 11 Apr 2026 - 00Z Sat 18 Apr 2026

...Periods of Heavy Rainfall Expected Across the Islands this
Weekend into next week...

The closed upper low well to the northwest of the Islands,
initially near 36N 166W, will remain nearly stationary through
late Monday, and then only begin to push slowly eastward Tuesday
and Wednesday. Model consensus continues to show mid to upper level
southwesterly flow aloft remaining established across the islands,
to the southeast of this nearly stationary closed low. This will
allow and axis of much above average PW values, 2 to 4+ standard
deviations above the mean, to build back to the west across the
Island chain early in the forecast period and remain in place
across the state through this weekend and into much of next week.

Shortwaves in this persistent southwest mid to upper level flow
will continue to enhance large scale uvvs in the anomalous PW
axis, supporting rounds of heavy rainfall and an elevated risk of
life threatening flash flooding and mudslides/debris flows this
weekend and for much of the upcoming week.

Periods of heavy rainfall are likely in this anomalous PW axis,
with model consensus for the greatest chance of heavy rains
through late Monday. After this, models are not as emphatic about
widespread heavy rains. However, with the anomalous PW axis
remaining across the Islands Tuesday, through Friday, locally
heavy rains will be possible each day.

Oravec

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
838 PM EDT Thu Apr 9 2026
Day 1
Valid 01Z Fri Apr 10 2026 - 12Z Fri Apr 10 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO MIDWEST...

01Z Update: A well-defined stationary front remains near the
Neb/KS border east across northern MO and north-central IL which
will sag south overnight. Strong southerly flow from TX/west Gulf
will continue to provide moisture (PW up around 1.2") and
convergence along the front. This, along with sufficient
instability(MLCAPE 500-1000 J/kg) will promote further
development as activity shifts east overnight. The previous
forecast is on track with the ong

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
408 AM EDT Fri Apr 10 2026
Day 1
Valid 12Z Fri Apr 10 2026 - 12Z Sat Apr 11 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...

A west-east orientated frontal boundary will be dropping southward
through the period while PW values of +2-2.5 standard deviations
advect northward across the region as the low level flow
strengthens. Meanwhile, shortwave energy pushing northeastward
into this high PW axis in the vicinity of this front will support
areas of slow moving convection along this front, locally heavy
rains and isolated runoff issues. HREF neighborhood probabilities
show 40-70% for 2 inches and 20-40 % for 3 inches of rainfall
across these areas. While areal averages are generally expected to
be less than 1.5 inches, there are signals for isolated maximums of
3-4+ inches per the latest CAM guidance. The Marginal Risk area for
excessive rainfall was maintained from the Oklahoma/Texas
Panhandles to southwest Missouri.

Campbell


Day 1 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94epoints.txt

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
408 AM EDT Fri Apr 10 2026
Day 2
Valid 12Z Sat Apr 11 2026 - 12Z Sun Apr 12 2026

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...

Gulf moisture will continue to advect northward with PW anomalies
surging to +3 deviations above seasonal normal across the Plains.
Upper dynamics will support ascent ahead of a longwave trough
entering the West Coast, as well as a shortwave trough traversing
the High Plains. As ridging builds in across the east, this will
also promote strong southerly flow and a low level jet over the
Southern Plains and Texas to advect moisture and instability in the
area. At the surface, a dry line across West Texas will help serve
as an initiating mechanism for convection. The latest guidance
continues to depict a signal for 2-4 inches possible from the
Concho Valley in West Texas to the Red River Valley in southern
Oklahoma. Rainfall rates could also be as high as an inch or two
per hour with organized convection likely as noted with SPC's
Slight Risk across the region. WPC maintained the Slight Risk for
excessive rainfall from the West Texas/Hill Country northeast to
the Red River Valley. A Marginal extends from the Rio Grande to
southeast Kansas.

Campbell/Wilder

Day 2 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98epoints.txt

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
408 AM EDT Fri Apr 10 2026
Day 3
Valid 12Z Sun Apr 12 2026 - 12Z Mon Apr 13 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

Multiple rounds of strong to severe storms will persist across the
Southern/Centrals Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley given
favorable wind shear and instability in place. Moisture transported northward
from the western Gulf to the Midwest between the eastern U.S.
upper ridge and the trough over the Rockies will maintain enhanced
rainfall. And with limited eastward progression of the QPF
footprint expected during this period, it will keep an elevated
threat for local flash flooding concerns. A Marginal Risk remains
in effect from central-eastern Texas to southeast Kansas/southwest
Missouri.

Campbell

Day 3 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/99epoints.txt

Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
306 AM EDT Fri Apr 10 2026


The next storm system across the Western U.S. will bring a
relatively strong cold front across the western U.S. that will
deliver widespread precipitation chances, including rain and
mountain snow, through Monday into early Tuesday. This same front
will emerge across the western High Plains and bring heavy snow
and high wind potential to portions of the central/southern
Rockies. Precipitation chances should decrease across much of the
West later into Tuesday, but precipitation chances will increase
across the Pacific Northwest as the next upper low/trough
approaches from the north.

A very active weather pattern develops across the Central U.S.
through the middle of the week, with multiple rounds of strong to
severe thunderstorms expected from Texas to the Midwest states,
given favorable wind shear and instability in place. The moisture
will be channeled northward from the western Gulf to the Midwest
between the eastern U.S. upper ridge and the trough over the
Rockies, and the limited eastward progression will likely result in
areas that have excessive rainfall leading to some instances of
flash flooding. Marginal Risk areas will be valid across portions
of the Midwest to the western Great Lakes Monday into Tuesday, with
greater coverage of convection likely on Tuesday. Additional heavy
rainfall is likely beyond this time across portions of the central
and southern Plains.

Temperatures will also be making weather headlines next week across
much of the Eastern U.S., with highs reaching into the mid to upper
80s for many areas, and even some lower 90s across the Southeast
and Mid-Atlantic region going into the middle of the week as the
early season heatwave reaches it peak. There should be a modest
cooling trend towards the end of the week as the frontal boundary
drops southward from the Ohio Valley to the Mid-Atlantic, and
remaining hot across the Deep South and the Carolinas. Out West,
readings should generally be near to below average with the upper
trough in place and increased cloud cover and precipitation.

Hamrick

Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
306 AM EDT Fri Apr 10 2026


The next storm system across the Western U.S. will bring a
relatively strong cold front across the western U.S. that will
deliver widespread precipitation chances, including rain and
mountain snow, through Monday into early Tuesday. This same front
will emerge across the western High Plains and bring heavy snow
and high wind potential to portions of the central/southern
Rockies. Precipitation chances should decrease across much of the
West later into Tuesday, but precipitation chances will increase
across the Pacific Northwest as the next upper low/trough
approaches from the north.

A very active weather pattern develops across the Central U.S.
through the middle of the week, with multiple rounds of strong to
severe thunderstorms expected from Texas to the Midwest states,
given favorable wind shear and instability in place. The moisture
will be channeled northward from the western Gulf to the Midwest
between the eastern U.S. upper ridge and the trough over the
Rockies, and the limited eastward progression will likely result in
areas that have excessive rainfall leading to some instances of
flash flooding. Marginal Risk areas will be valid across portions
of the Midwest to the western Great Lakes Monday into Tuesday, with
greater coverage of convection likely on Tuesday. Additional heavy
rainfall is likely beyond this time across portions of the central
and southern Plains.

Temperatures will also be making weather headlines next week across
much of the Eastern U.S., with highs reaching into the mid to upper
80s for many areas, and even some lower 90s across the Southeast
and Mid-Atlantic region going into the middle of the week as the
early season heatwave reaches it peak. There should be a modest
cooling trend towards the end of the week as the frontal boundary
drops southward from the Ohio Valley to the Mid-Atlantic, and
remaining hot across the Deep South and the Carolinas. Out West,
readings should generally be near to below average with the upper
trough in place and increased cloud cover and precipitation.

Hamrick

Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
246 AM EDT Fri Apr 10 2026

Valid 12Z Fri Apr 10 2026 - 12Z Mon Apr 13 2026

...Sierra Nevada...
Days 1-3...

An upper low just offshore NorCal this morning will will weaken
into an open wave this afternoon as it moves inland into the Great
Basin. Moisture is already flowing into the region but temperatures
are mild and snow levels are quite high (>9000ft). Just upstream,
a more robust closed low will drop southward from the Gulf of
Alaska and move into NorCal Saturday night through Sunday and
slowly weaken into Monday. This second stronger system will be the
primary driver for snowfall over the Sierra starting tonight and
continuing through the weekend. While moisture/IVT anomalies will
be modestly high (90th-98th percentile), the slow-moving nature of
the upper low will allow for a longer sustained fetch into the
Sierra at a fairly favorable wind direction from the SW. Moderate
to heavy snow is expected over the High Sierra at first, then
lowering through many passes as colder air filters in. Snow levels
above 9000ft will fall to 7500-8000ft today, 6000ft Saturday
morning, and 4000-4500ft Sunday morning before rising a bit later
in the day into early Monday (5000-5500ft) as the upper low starts
to weaken. The heaviest snow is expected late Saturday afternoon in
northern areas through Sunday across the rest of the Sierra with
rates of 1-3"/hr per the hires CAMS and WPC snowband probability
tracker page.

WPC probabilities for >8" of snow are >50% above 5000-5500ft or so
and for >18" are >50% above 6000-7000ft or so. Total snowfall for
the event could reach 2ft in the higher peaks above 8000ft (>50%
chance) and 4ft in the High Sierra peaks. Travel across the higher
mountain passes (including I-80) will increasingly become a concern
through the weekend as snow levels lower. Moderate to Major level
impacts can be expected over the Sierra per the WSSI.

Snow will also expand across the Great Basin on Sunday with minor
accumulations for most areas. However, parts of southeastern OR,
northern NV, the central ID ranges, and the Wind River Range in WY
could see in excess of 8 inches of snow through 12Z Mon (40-70%
chance).

The probability of significant icing for days 1-3 across the CONUS
is less than 10 percent.

Fracasso

Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
306 AM EDT Fri Apr 10 2026

Valid 12Z Mon Apr 13 2026 - 12Z Fri Apr 17 2026

***Multiple rounds of heavy rain and severe weather across the
Plains next week***

...General Overview...

An amplified upper level flow pattern will be in place next week
across the Continental U.S., with an upper ridge situated east of
the Mississippi River, and a general trough over the West. Multiple
impulses will eject eastward across the Plains and provide forcing
for episodes of heavy rain and severe thunderstorms from the
southern Plains to the Great Lakes. Summer-like temperatures will
be commonplace across the eastern half of the country with highs
well into the 80s and lower 90s by the middle of the week.

....Guidance/Predictability Assessment...

The 00Z model guidance suite features good overall agreement on the
synoptic scale for Monday and Tuesday, so a general deterministic
model blend works well as a starting point. Recent runs of the GFS
have been faster with ejecting shortwave energy eastward from the
Plains to the Great Lakes, with a quicker cold front passage across
the Ohio Valley and Northeast/Mid-Atlantic when compared to the
non-NCEP guidance. There are also noteworthy differences between
the ECMWF and the AIFS guidance in regards to high temperatures
across the Eastern U.S for the middle of the week, with the AIFS
portraying a more realistic scenario compared to the extreme values
noted in the operational ECMWF. Differences across the northern
U.S. become significant by the end of the week, so an ensemble mean
approach is increasingly used for fronts and pressures. The NBM
appeared to be a reasonable starting point for most areas of the
country for temperatures, and QPF was raised slightly across the
Plains to the Midwest where convective training is possible and
winds raised some across Colorado and New Mexico.

...Weather/Hazards Highlights...

The next storm system across the Western U.S. will bring a
relatively strong cold front across the western U.S. that will
deliver widespread precipitation chances, including rain and
mountain snow, through Monday into early Tuesday. This same front
will emerge across the western High Plains and bring heavy snow
and high wind potential to portions of the central/southern
Rockies. Precipitation chances should decrease across much of the
West later into Tuesday, but precipitation chances will increase
across the Pacific Northwest as the next upper low/trough
approaches from the north.

A very active weather pattern develops across the Central U.S.
through the middle of the week, with multiple rounds of strong to
severe thunderstorms expected from Texas to the Midwest states,
given favorable wind shear and instability in place. The moisture
will be channeled northward from the western Gulf to the Midwest
between the eastern U.S. upper ridge and the trough over the
Rockies, and the limited eastward progression will likely result in
areas that have excessive rainfall leading to some instances of
flash flooding. Marginal Risk areas will be valid across portions
of the Midwest to the western Great Lakes Monday into Tuesday, with
greater coverage of convection likely on Tuesday. Additional heavy
rainfall is likely beyond this time across portions of the central
and southern Plains.

Temperatures will also be making weather headlines next week across
much of the Eastern U.S., with highs reaching into the mid to upper
80s for many areas, and even some lower 90s across the Southeast
and Mid-Atlantic region going into the middle of the week as the
early season heatwave reaches it peak. There should be a modest
cooling trend towards the end of the week as the frontal boundary
drops southward from the Ohio Valley to the Mid-Atlantic, and
remaining hot across the Deep South and the Carolinas. Out West,
readings should generally be near to below average with the upper
trough in place and increased cloud cover and precipitation.

Hamrick


Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids,
quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF), excessive rainfall
outlook (ERO), winter weather outlook (WWO) probabilities, heat
indices, and Key Messages can be accessed from:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ero
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ovw