Weather Prediction Center

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
258 AM EST Thu Nov 5 2026

Valid 12Z Thu Nov 05 2026 - 12Z Sat Nov 07 2026

...Heavy rainfall shifts into the Eastern Seaboard...

The long advertised cold front extending across the Ohio Valley
continues an eastward track, and will spread showers and
thunderstorms into the Eastern Seaboard this morning. An uptick in
rainfall coverage is expected tomorrow over portions of the
Northeast and New England as moisture ramps up ahead of an
approaching upper-trough, which will drive an isolated to
scattered flash flood threat. Thunderstorm coverage should also
increase near the tail end of the front near South Texas, where
some heavy rainfall is possible going into the weekend. Meanwhile,
in the Northwest, an active storm track will lead a parade of
Pacific systems and soaking rains across the region beginning
tomorrow. This activity should largely be beneficial given the
prevailing drought conditions in the region.

Temperature wise, a pair of reinforcing cold fronts behind the main
boundary will send cooler than average temperatures southward over
portions of the Plains and Midwest. Ahead of this cool air,
unseasonably mild weather will prevail east of the Mississippi
River for the next day or two.

Asherman

Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
106 AM EST Thu Nov 5 2026

Valid 12Z Sun Nov 08 2026 - 12Z Thu Nov 12 2026


...Overview...

Persistent troughing over northeastern Pacific will support
multiple opportunities for precipitation and gusty winds across
the Pacific Northwest and West Coast. A potentially significant
moisture plume may approach the West Coast early next week,
bringing chances for coastal and low elevation rain and mountain
snow further inland. Farther east, periodic shortwave disturbances
rotating through the mean trough will support additional
opportunities for showers across the Great Lakes and Northeast.
Across the southern tier, a southern-stream trough is expected to
bring chances for showers and thunderstorms across the southern
Plains/Texas and Gulf Coast/Southeast through early next week.


...Guidance/Predictability Assessment...

Most of the latest model guidance exhibit reasonably good
agreement regarding deep troughing over the northeastern Pacific,
with downstream ridging across much of western and central U.S.,
and troughing across eastern U.S. for the first portion of the
period. The GFS seems to remain a outlier regarding the amplitude
and timing with shortwave features, particularly across the
southern tier. These differences will influence the placement and
magnitude for precipitation. Another forecast uncertainty remains
with the Pacific moisture plume approaching the West Coast next
week. Some models place the greatest moisture plume farther north
into British Columbia, while other solutions direct the moisture
towards western Washington. Therefore, the forecast favored a
multi-model blend of ECMWF/CMC and machine learning guidance
towards the first portion of the period, while blending in the
ensemble means towards the latter portion.



...Weather/Hazards Highlights...

The Pacific Northwest is expected to remain under the influence of
persistent troughing and periodic shortwave troughs approaching
from the northeastern Pacific. Several rounds of rain along the
coastal ranges and lower elevations, as well as coastal gusty
winds are possible as successive frontal systems move inland.
Locally heavier rainfall will be possible along favored coastal
terrain and windward slopes of the Cascades and northern portions
of the Intermountain West. Additionally, there is potential for a
more organized atmospheric river event approaching the West Coast
by early next week. This will support southwesterly flow and
enhance moisture transport into the Pacific Northwest and
potentially expand showers into California, with the potential for
mountain snowfall.

Meanwhile, a southern-stream trough is expected to progress
eastward across the southern tier and interact with Gulf and
Atlantic moisture. This will bring chances for showers and
thunderstorms across parts of Texas into the Gulf Coast/Southeast
through early next week. Increasing moisture return from the Gulf
ahead of the system and increasing instability will bring possible
localized flash flooding. WPC Excessive Rainfall Outlook (ERO)
continues the Marginal Risk for Sunday across portions of southern
Texas.

Across the Northeast and Great Lakes, lingering cyclonic flow
behind the frontal system will maintain periods of scattered
showers. Additional shortwave energy dropping southeastward from
Canada may reinforce the upper trough, while cold-air advection
support continued lake-effect showers downwind of the Great Lakes
through early next week.



Oudit


Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids,
quantitative precipitation forecast, excessive rainfall outlook,
winter weather outlook probabilities, heat indices and Key Messages
are at:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ero
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ovw

Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
200 AM EST Thu Nov 5 2026

Valid 00Z Fri 06 Nov 2026 - 00Z Fri 13 Nov 2026

The prevailing easterly trade wind pattern will persist across the
islands all week. A tropical disturbance, which NHC continues to
forecast to likely develop into a named storm will pass well south
of the islands Friday and Saturday. The pocket of moisture the
tropical disturbance is embedded in will cross the islands Friday
through most of Saturday. This will enhance the coverage and
intensity of mauka and windward showers and heavy rain cells. That
should be the only significant impact. By Saturday night, much
drier air following the moisture plume will move through the
islands from the northeast, which will persist from Saturday night
right through the end of the period Thursday. Mauka and windward
side showers will remain possible through this period, but they
will be lighter and more isolated due to the prevalence of the dry
air.

Wegman

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
314 AM EST Thu Nov 5 2026
Day 1
Valid 12Z Thu Nov 05 2026 - 12Z Fri Nov 06 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

B Hurley


Day 1 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94epoints.txt

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
314 AM EST Thu Nov 5 2026
Day 2
Valid 12Z Fri Nov 06 2026 - 12Z Sat Nov 07 2026

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND...

...Eastern Portions of LI and CT into RI and Eastern MA...
Trimmed the western portion of the Marginal Risk area inherited
from yesterday's Day 3 ERO across southern New England, based on
the guidance trends (continued eastward shift in the rainfall
axis). Mid-upper level trough takes on a more neutral tilt, with
the large-scale ascent becoming enhanced within the right-
entrance region of the 90-110kt upper level jet streak. Low- level
flow (1000-850 mb) backs towards the south while increasing to ~30
kts, strengthening the low-level moisture flux/transport off the
Gulf Stream. This will bring PWs of 1.5-1.75 across the outlook
area, which is 2-2.5 standard deviations above normal for early
Nov. Instability, even elevated, is expected to be fairly minimal
per the guidance (MUCAPEs ~200-400 J/Kg), however given the axis of
favorable deep-layer moisture/theta-e, the bulk of the guidance
continues to show peak 24hr rainfall between 3-5+ inches across
parts of southeastern New England, particularly from Newport and
Providence RI to Plymouth MA. Given the latest REFS exceedance
probabilities over this area, including 40-50% of >5"/24hrs, EAS
40-45% probabilities of >3"/24hrs, and 30-40% probs of exceeding 2
year ARI amounts, have opted to include a targeted Slight Risk area
in the Day 2 ERO.

...Southeast VA into Northeast NC...
Have included a Marginal Risk area across coastal portions of the
Mid Atlantic, including Hampton Roads. Degree/duration of favorable
dynamics are not as favorable compared to southeastern New England,
however the guidance does show a bit more instability to work with
(higher probs of at least 750-1500 J/Kg), which translates to
higher 1+ in/hr rainfall rates Friday afternoon into early evening.
Areal-average QPF within this region is between 1.5-3.0" per a
multi-model blend (including the AIGFS and ECMWF AIFS).

B Hurley


Day 2 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98epoints.txt

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
314 AM EST Thu Nov 5 2026
Day 3
Valid 12Z Sat Nov 07 2026 - 12Z Sun Nov 08 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL
AND SOUTH TEXAS...

Generally maintained the inherited Marginal Risk area from
yesterday's Day 4 ERO, though shifting a bit farther east based on
the latest guidance trends.

Model guidance is beginning to converge on a synoptic evolution
that would favor areas of heavy rain over southern TX this weekend.
A mid-upper low is forecast to dive southeast out of AZ and into
northern MX late Friday/Fri night, then gradually progress
eastward towards West TX by Sunday. This feature will provide ample
ascent for rainfall, with a strong upper level jet providing
additional lift. Anomalous moisture will advect northward ahead of
this system, and while PWs will likely not be as high as recent
events, it is still forecast to exceed the climatological 90th
percentile. In the low levels we should have east to northeasterly
flow, which will aid in isentropic ascent over the region, but
should also act as a stabilizing factor. Thus the degree of
instability, which will impact rainfall rates and the flash flood
potential, remains a question.

In terms of the latest guidance, the ECMWF AIFS continues to be the
most persistent model showing the heavy rainfall threat, and is
gaining more support from the operational ECMWF, GFS, and CMC.
If/where sufficient destabilization is able to occur to drive
higher rainfall rates, a future Slight risk upgrade may be
necessary. Best chances for this at the moment appear to be along
the south TX coast where instability advecting in off the water and
coastal convergence could focus higher rainfall magnitudes.

B Hurley/Chenard

Day 3 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/99epoints.txt

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
314 AM EST Thu Nov 5 2026
Day 4 and Day 5

Valid 12Z Sun Nov 08 2026 - 12Z Tue Nov 10 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL SUNDAY ACROSS
PARTS OF SOUTH TEXAS...

Day 4: Continued with the Marginal Risk area from yesterday's Day 5
ERO, which is essentially an extension (slight migration) of the
Marginal Risk area on Day 3 (Sat-Sat night). Upper trough and
attendant southern stream upper jet support and deep subtropical
moisture will gradually shift east of TX, but not before another
day of potentially heavy rainfall across South TX, particularly
along the TX Gulf Coast. Used a blend of the AI GFS and ECMWF
guidance in outlining the Marginal Risk area, though it should be
pointed out that both the 00Z operational GFS and ECMWF show a
narrow corridor of 3-6" along and near the Lower-Middle TX Coast.
There is some areal spread however with these higher totals, along
with the overall high spread with the rest of the operational
global and AI guidance. Because of this, have maintained the
Marginal Risk, however could certainly see an upgrade to a Slight
Risk in future forecasts if/when the models show better clustering
with the heavier totals.

B Hurley

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
314 AM EST Thu Nov 5 2026
Day 4 and Day 5

Valid 12Z Sun Nov 08 2026 - 12Z Tue Nov 10 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL SUNDAY ACROSS
PARTS OF SOUTH TEXAS...

Day 4: Continued with the Marginal Risk area from yesterday's Day 5
ERO, which is essentially an extension (slight migration) of the
Marginal Risk area on Day 3 (Sat-Sat night). Upper trough and
attendant southern stream upper jet support and deep subtropical
moisture will gradually shift east of TX, but not before another
day of potentially heavy rainfall across South TX, particularly
along the TX Gulf Coast. Used a blend of the AI GFS and ECMWF
guidance in outlining the Marginal Risk area, though it should be
pointed out that both the 00Z operational GFS and ECMWF show a
narrow corridor of 3-6" along and near the Lower-Middle TX Coast.
There is some areal spread however with these higher totals, along
with the overall high spread with the rest of the operational
global and AI guidance. Because of this, have maintained the
Marginal Risk, however could certainly see an upgrade to a Slight
Risk in future forecasts if/when the models show better clustering
with the heavier totals.

B Hurley

Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
156 AM EST Thu Nov 5 2026

Valid 12Z Thu Nov 05 2026 - 12Z Sun Nov 08 2026

...Upper Peninsula of Michigan...
Day 1...

Departing system sprawled across southeastern Canada will slowly
exit the Great Lakes today, with a trailing vort max diving
southward across Lake Superior this evening. Marginally cold air
will filter in from the north with some lake-enhanced precipitation
on northerly flow. As the 850mb temperature drops below zero and
surface T/Tds fall to the lower 30s, snow will accumulate over
especially the higher terrain away from the relatively milder lake
shore (e.g, Huron Mountains). Expected accumulation is 0.5-2.5" or
so, but the probability of at least 4 inches of snow is 10-20% per
the Probabilistic Precipitation Portal.


The probability of significant ice across the CONUS is less than
10 percent.


Fracasso

Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
106 AM EST Thu Nov 5 2026

Valid 12Z Sun Nov 08 2026 - 12Z Thu Nov 12 2026


...Overview...

Persistent troughing over northeastern Pacific will support
multiple opportunities for precipitation and gusty winds across
the Pacific Northwest and West Coast. A potentially significant
moisture plume may approach the West Coast early next week,
bringing chances for coastal and low elevation rain and mountain
snow further inland. Farther east, periodic shortwave disturbances
rotating through the mean trough will support additional
opportunities for showers across the Great Lakes and Northeast.
Across the southern tier, a southern-stream trough is expected to
bring chances for showers and thunderstorms across the southern
Plains/Texas and Gulf Coast/Southeast through early next week.


...Guidance/Predictability Assessment...

Most of the latest model guidance exhibit reasonably good
agreement regarding deep troughing over the northeastern Pacific,
with downstream ridging across much of western and central U.S.,
and troughing across eastern U.S. for the first portion of the
period. The GFS seems to remain a outlier regarding the amplitude
and timing with shortwave features, particularly across the
southern tier. These differences will influence the placement and
magnitude for precipitation. Another forecast uncertainty remains
with the Pacific moisture plume approaching the West Coast next
week. Some models place the greatest moisture plume farther north
into British Columbia, while other solutions direct the moisture
towards western Washington. Therefore, the forecast favored a
multi-model blend of ECMWF/CMC and machine learning guidance
towards the first portion of the period, while blending in the
ensemble means towards the latter portion.



...Weather/Hazards Highlights...

The Pacific Northwest is expected to remain under the influence of
persistent troughing and periodic shortwave troughs approaching
from the northeastern Pacific. Several rounds of rain along the
coastal ranges and lower elevations, as well as coastal gusty
winds are possible as successive frontal systems move inland.
Locally heavier rainfall will be possible along favored coastal
terrain and windward slopes of the Cascades and northern portions
of the Intermountain West. Additionally, there is potential for a
more organized atmospheric river event approaching the West Coast
by early next week. This will support southwesterly flow and
enhance moisture transport into the Pacific Northwest and
potentially expand showers into California, with the potential for
mountain snowfall.

Meanwhile, a southern-stream trough is expected to progress
eastward across the southern tier and interact with Gulf and
Atlantic moisture. This will bring chances for showers and
thunderstorms across parts of Texas into the Gulf Coast/Southeast
through early next week. Increasing moisture return from the Gulf
ahead of the system and increasing instability will bring possible
localized flash flooding. WPC Excessive Rainfall Outlook (ERO)
continues the Marginal Risk for Sunday across portions of southern
Texas.

Across the Northeast and Great Lakes, lingering cyclonic flow
behind the frontal system will maintain periods of scattered
showers. Additional shortwave energy dropping southeastward from
Canada may reinforce the upper trough, while cold-air advection
support continued lake-effect showers downwind of the Great Lakes
through early next week.



Oudit


Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids,
quantitative precipitation forecast, excessive rainfall outlook,
winter weather outlook probabilities, heat indices and Key Messages
are at:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ero
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ovw