Weather Prediction Center

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
300 AM EST Wed Feb 04 2026

Valid 12Z Wed Feb 04 2026 - 12Z Fri Feb 06 2026

...A low pressure system will bring rain and thunderstorms across the
South and Southeast, with light wintry precipitation across the
Mid-Atlantic today...

...Passages of frontal systems will bring periods of light to locally
moderate snow for the Great Lakes Thursday and into Friday...

...Arctic air returns to the eastern U.S. as a warm spell expands across
the northern Plains toward the upper Midwest...

A low pressure wave tracking east toward the southern Appalachians early
this morning has drawn moisture and instability from the warm waters of
the Gulf to support widespread showers across the South and some organized
thunderstorms near the Gulf coast. The cold front trailing southwest from
the low pressure center will steadily advance these showers and embedded
thunderstorms from west to east across the Gulf Coast this morning, and
then across much of the Southeast today into tonight. Meanwhile, a
replenishment of arctic air spreading into the Great Lakes and the
Northeast is supporting a period of light snow across the Mid-Atlantic
early this morning. The snow should taper off by daybreak but another
patch of light snow and wintry mix is expected to move across North
Carolina from west to east later today through tonight as the low pressure
wave will take some time to move through the region.

By Thursday, the low pressure wave is forecast to move off the
southeastern U.S. and intensify rapidly. Showers and embedded
thunderstorms ahead of the trailing cold front will be moving through
Florida Peninsula on Thursday. Behind the system, mostly clear skies will
return to much of the eastern U.S., allowing temperatures to fall back to
single digits and teens from the Ohio Valley to much of the Northeast by
Thursday morning. By Friday morning, the cold air will make it all the
way down the Sunshine State where 30s to 40s will be common, with below
freezing temperatures returning to the Florida Panhandle.

Meanwhile, much of the western U.S. will remain dry with milder than
normal conditions under the influence of a persistent upper-level ridge.
A significant warm up will emerge across the northern High Plains today,
expanding east across the northern Plains toward the upper Midwest through
the next couple of days. This is in response to a stronger clipper low
pressure system to move across central Canada. Ahead of a warm front,
light snow will be moving into the Great Lakes on Thursday, with the
arrival of snow showers and possibly snow squalls over the upper Great
Lakes by early on Friday, signaling the arrival of the next intense surge
from arctic air from Canada. In the mean time, relatively quiet weather
is expected farther down the Great Plains with a gradual warming trend
spreading south into Texas heading into Friday.


Kong


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
256 AM EST Wed Feb 4 2026

Valid 12Z Sat Feb 7 2026 - 12Z Wed Feb 11 2026


***Renewed surge of arctic air expected for the East Coast by the
weekend followed by slow moderating trend***


...General Overview...

A deep upper trough and arctic airmass will be in place over the
Mid-Atlantic and Northeast this weekend in the wake of a strong
cold front. This trough should slowly lift out of the region going
into the beginning of next week, and a more zonal flow pattern
evolves by the middle of the week with moderating temperatures. A
split upper flow pattern is expected to be in place across the
western half of the country this weekend with a southern stream
shortwave tracking towards the southern Plains, and an upper level
ridge over the northern Rockies that shifts to the northern Plains
and Upper Midwest by Tuesday. After a prolonged dry spell and upper
ridging over the Pacific Northwest, a trough builds back in near
the West Coast and brings a return to showers and mountain snow.


...Guidance/Predictability Assessment...

There is initially decent overall model agreement in the 00Z
guidance suite to begin the forecast period Saturday, and the CMC
has trended closer to the consensus compared to its 12Z run, which
had a stronger and faster surface low across the Great Lakes going
into Sunday that lacked ensemble and AI model support. The guidance
all agrees that the ridge across the western U.S. will break down
as Pacific shortwave energy moves in, but differ on the details.
The GFS is more progressive and stronger in the lead shortwave
moving east across the Dakotas by Monday night and eventually the
Great Lakes, whereas the consensus is for a slower solution. The
CMC is also at odds with the GFS by the end of the period for the
Northeast U.S., with the CMC favoring more of a ridge axis and the
GFS showing a trough, and the ECMWF indicating a weaker trough. The
ensemble means were gradually increased to about half by Wednesday.
In terms of the NBM, QPF was raised slightly across the western
Great Lakes on Saturday, and winds were increased by about 10
percent for the Northeast on Saturday in the wake of the arctic
cold front.


...Weather/Hazards Highlights...

After a long dry spell across the northwestern U.S., precipitation
is set to make a return to Washington and Oregon starting Saturday
with rain near the coast and snow for the Cascades as a cold front
from the Pacific approaches the region. This becomes more
widespread going into Sunday to include more of the Northwest and
the northern Rockies, and likely settling southward to include
portions of central and northern California by early next week.
However, this event does not appear to be all that heavy in terms
of excessive rainfall potential, and therefore no excessive
rainfall areas are currently needed in the EROs at this time.
Should things trend heavier in future model cycles, a Marginal Risk
could eventually be needed for portions of northwestern California
and western Oregon for the Sunday into Monday time period.
Elsewhere across the country, mainly dry conditions except for some
light snow showers across portions of the Upper Midwest and the
western Great Lakes on Saturday.

There will continue to be a dichotomy in terms of temperatures
across the country, with the eastern third of the U.S. colder than
average, and well above average across the Plains and the Rockies.
The coldest anomalies will be across the Northeast this weekend
with both highs and lows 15 to 25 degrees below early February
standards. Multiple daily record low maximums are within the realm
of possibility from the northern Mid-Atlantic to New England, and a
few record overnight lows may be set, with overnight lows in the 0s
and low 10s near the coast, and subzero across the interior
Northeast by Sunday morning. The good news here is a moderating
trend will commence starting Monday, and readings should generally
be close to normal by Wednesday as the arctic airmass retreats.

The opposite will hold true across areas west of the Mississippi
River as anomalous warmth for this time of year will continue. The
highest anomalies are likely to be from eastern Montana and the
western Dakotas southward to the central Plains, with afternoon
highs running a good 20-30 degrees above average in many cases,
equating to highs well into the 50s and 60s for these areas. A
modest cooling trend is likely going into the beginning of next
week as the upper trough arrives across the West Coast region.

Hamrick


Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids,
quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF), excessive rainfall
outlook (ERO), winter weather outlook (WWO) probabilities, heat
indices, and Key Messages can be accessed from:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ero
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ovw

Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
302 AM EST Wed Feb 4 2026

Valid 00Z Thu 05 Feb 2026 - 00Z Thu 12 Feb 2026

...Potent winter system to impact the islands this weekend with
heavy rainfall and gale force trade winds...

The forecast period begins with a brief lull in activity, as a
transient, low-amplitude ridge traverses the Central Pacific,
providing a short window of stable conditions and light winds on
Thursday. However, as expected the upper level pattern is
expected to amplify significantly by Friday as a deep longwave
trough digs toward the islands from the northwest. As this occurs,
a cold front will move into the western islands late Fri into
Sat. The tightening pressure gradient between this front and the
strong high building to the north will lead to strong, potentially
gale- force trade winds. As noted the past couple of days, the
interaction between the digging upper trough and the surface
boundary will lead to an extended period of Kona-like conditions
with deepening moisture, PWATs increasing to aoa 1.75 inches, and
thus more frequent showers and thunderstorms with bouts of heavy
rainfall before strong easterly trades stabilize the pattern early
next week.

In terms of the guidance, the latest operational global models
are in reasonable agreement into early next week. This leads to
increased forecast confidence of a rather unsettled, wet forecast
with the cold pool aloft (-15C at 500 mb) and a stalled surface
front, particularly over the western and central islands in terms
of coverage/frequency and amounts with the showers and
thunderstorms.



Hurley

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1017 AM EST Wed Feb 4 2026
Day 1
Valid 16Z Wed Feb 04 2026 - 12Z Thu Feb 05 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Cook/Kleebauer


Day 1 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94epoints.txt

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1017 AM EST Wed Feb 4 2026
Day 2
Valid 12Z Thu Feb 05 2026 - 12Z Fri Feb 06 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Kleebauer


Day 2 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98epoints.txt

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1017 AM EST Wed Feb 4 2026
Day 3
Valid 12Z Fri Feb 06 2026 - 12Z Sat Feb 07 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Kleebauer

Day 3 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/99epoints.txt

Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
256 AM EST Wed Feb 4 2026


After a long dry spell across the northwestern U.S., precipitation
is set to make a return to Washington and Oregon starting Saturday
with rain near the coast and snow for the Cascades as a cold front
from the Pacific approaches the region. This becomes more
widespread going into Sunday to include more of the Northwest and
the northern Rockies, and likely settling southward to include
portions of central and northern California by early next week.
However, this event does not appear to be all that heavy in terms
of excessive rainfall potential, and therefore no excessive
rainfall areas are currently needed in the EROs at this time.
Should things trend heavier in future model cycles, a Marginal Risk
could eventually be needed for portions of northwestern California
and western Oregon for the Sunday into Monday time period.
Elsewhere across the country, mainly dry conditions except for some
light snow showers across portions of the Upper Midwest and the
western Great Lakes on Saturday.

There will continue to be a dichotomy in terms of temperatures
across the country, with the eastern third of the U.S. colder than
average, and well above average across the Plains and the Rockies.
The coldest anomalies will be across the Northeast this weekend
with both highs and lows 15 to 25 degrees below early February
standards. Multiple daily record low maximums are within the realm
of possibility from the northern Mid-Atlantic to New England, and a
few record overnight lows may be set, with overnight lows in the 0s
and low 10s near the coast, and subzero across the interior
Northeast by Sunday morning. The good news here is a moderating
trend will commence starting Monday, and readings should generally
be close to normal by Wednesday as the arctic airmass retreats.

The opposite will hold true across areas west of the Mississippi
River as anomalous warmth for this time of year will continue. The
highest anomalies are likely to be from eastern Montana and the
western Dakotas southward to the central Plains, with afternoon
highs running a good 20-30 degrees above average in many cases,
equating to highs well into the 50s and 60s for these areas. A
modest cooling trend is likely going into the beginning of next
week as the upper trough arrives across the West Coast region.

Hamrick

Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
256 AM EST Wed Feb 4 2026


After a long dry spell across the northwestern U.S., precipitation
is set to make a return to Washington and Oregon starting Saturday
with rain near the coast and snow for the Cascades as a cold front
from the Pacific approaches the region. This becomes more
widespread going into Sunday to include more of the Northwest and
the northern Rockies, and likely settling southward to include
portions of central and northern California by early next week.
However, this event does not appear to be all that heavy in terms
of excessive rainfall potential, and therefore no excessive
rainfall areas are currently needed in the EROs at this time.
Should things trend heavier in future model cycles, a Marginal Risk
could eventually be needed for portions of northwestern California
and western Oregon for the Sunday into Monday time period.
Elsewhere across the country, mainly dry conditions except for some
light snow showers across portions of the Upper Midwest and the
western Great Lakes on Saturday.

There will continue to be a dichotomy in terms of temperatures
across the country, with the eastern third of the U.S. colder than
average, and well above average across the Plains and the Rockies.
The coldest anomalies will be across the Northeast this weekend
with both highs and lows 15 to 25 degrees below early February
standards. Multiple daily record low maximums are within the realm
of possibility from the northern Mid-Atlantic to New England, and a
few record overnight lows may be set, with overnight lows in the 0s
and low 10s near the coast, and subzero across the interior
Northeast by Sunday morning. The good news here is a moderating
trend will commence starting Monday, and readings should generally
be close to normal by Wednesday as the arctic airmass retreats.

The opposite will hold true across areas west of the Mississippi
River as anomalous warmth for this time of year will continue. The
highest anomalies are likely to be from eastern Montana and the
western Dakotas southward to the central Plains, with afternoon
highs running a good 20-30 degrees above average in many cases,
equating to highs well into the 50s and 60s for these areas. A
modest cooling trend is likely going into the beginning of next
week as the upper trough arrives across the West Coast region.

Hamrick

Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
216 AM EST Wed Feb 4 2026

Valid 12Z Wed Feb 04 2026 - 12Z Sat Feb 07 2026


...Southern Mid-Atlantic...
Day 1...

A cold front over the Southeast this morning and area of low
pressure over the southern Appalachians will make a slow march
eastward today with rain over much of the region but some light
snow on the northern side of the precipitation shield. Trailing
shortwave energy from the Lower MS Valley/Mid-South will slow the
front a bit tonight as temperatures cool just enough over southern
VA into northern NC for snow to fall and accumulate. In addition,
lingering moisture over eastern NC tonight combined with mid-level
drying may lead to some freezing rain and freezing drizzle. Though
accumulations will be light (0.01-0.05"), any freezing rain is
impactful to untreated surfaces. Precipitation will end from west
to east Thursday.

WPC probabilities of at least 2 inches of snow are 20-50% over
southwestern VA and barely 10% over northern/northeastern NC.


...Great Lakes, Central Appalachians, Northeast, Mid-Atlantic...
Days 1-3...

A warm front will push into the Upper Midwest and western Great
Lakes, aided by a 140kt upper level jet over south central Canada
on Thursday. Light and broad WAA-driven snow is forecast for
northeastern MN and across the Upper and Lower Peninsulas of
Michigan. This will be followed by a strong Arctic cold front that
will dive to the south and east across the region through the day
on Friday. The left exit region of this jet combined with a potent
vort max will support large-scale forcing for ascent across the
Great Lakes in the wake of the lead light snow. With the passage of
the Arctic front, snow squalls are possible from MI and western NY
to OH, PA, and WV starting late Thursday night and continuing
through the day on Friday. Some of the stronger showers and squalls
are looking increasingly likely to spill over the central
Appalachians into parts of the Mid-Atlantic later in the afternoon,
possibly impacting the evening commute on Friday. Upslope snow in
the central Appalachians should maximize Friday afternoon/evening
as the front moves through.

WPC probabilities for at least 4 inches of snow are low (10-40%)
across the U.P. of Michigan and west of Traverse City. Over western
NY and NW PA, surface low may move through the region and spur
more widespread snow along/behind the front and as winds turn more
northerly, picking up moisture off Lake Ontario. There, WPC
probabilities for at least 4 inches of snow are 20-50%. Finally,
over eastern WV, amounts will likely be the highest in the region
and WPC probabilities for at least 4 inches of snow are >70%,
especially above 2000ft.

In the wake of the Arctic front, a blast of bitterly cold air will
encompass much of the Northeast heading into the weekend. For more
details, please reference the Extreme Cold Key Messages in the
link provided below.

Fracasso


...Extreme Cold Key Messages are in effect. Please see current Key
Messages below...

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/key_messages/LatestKeyMessage_1.png

Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
256 AM EST Wed Feb 4 2026

Valid 12Z Sat Feb 7 2026 - 12Z Wed Feb 11 2026


***Renewed surge of arctic air expected for the East Coast by the
weekend followed by slow moderating trend***


...General Overview...

A deep upper trough and arctic airmass will be in place over the
Mid-Atlantic and Northeast this weekend in the wake of a strong
cold front. This trough should slowly lift out of the region going
into the beginning of next week, and a more zonal flow pattern
evolves by the middle of the week with moderating temperatures. A
split upper flow pattern is expected to be in place across the
western half of the country this weekend with a southern stream
shortwave tracking towards the southern Plains, and an upper level
ridge over the northern Rockies that shifts to the northern Plains
and Upper Midwest by Tuesday. After a prolonged dry spell and upper
ridging over the Pacific Northwest, a trough builds back in near
the West Coast and brings a return to showers and mountain snow.


...Guidance/Predictability Assessment...

There is initially decent overall model agreement in the 00Z
guidance suite to begin the forecast period Saturday, and the CMC
has trended closer to the consensus compared to its 12Z run, which
had a stronger and faster surface low across the Great Lakes going
into Sunday that lacked ensemble and AI model support. The guidance
all agrees that the ridge across the western U.S. will break down
as Pacific shortwave energy moves in, but differ on the details.
The GFS is more progressive and stronger in the lead shortwave
moving east across the Dakotas by Monday night and eventually the
Great Lakes, whereas the consensus is for a slower solution. The
CMC is also at odds with the GFS by the end of the period for the
Northeast U.S., with the CMC favoring more of a ridge axis and the
GFS showing a trough, and the ECMWF indicating a weaker trough. The
ensemble means were gradually increased to about half by Wednesday.
In terms of the NBM, QPF was raised slightly across the western
Great Lakes on Saturday, and winds were increased by about 10
percent for the Northeast on Saturday in the wake of the arctic
cold front.


...Weather/Hazards Highlights...

After a long dry spell across the northwestern U.S., precipitation
is set to make a return to Washington and Oregon starting Saturday
with rain near the coast and snow for the Cascades as a cold front
from the Pacific approaches the region. This becomes more
widespread going into Sunday to include more of the Northwest and
the northern Rockies, and likely settling southward to include
portions of central and northern California by early next week.
However, this event does not appear to be all that heavy in terms
of excessive rainfall potential, and therefore no excessive
rainfall areas are currently needed in the EROs at this time.
Should things trend heavier in future model cycles, a Marginal Risk
could eventually be needed for portions of northwestern California
and western Oregon for the Sunday into Monday time period.
Elsewhere across the country, mainly dry conditions except for some
light snow showers across portions of the Upper Midwest and the
western Great Lakes on Saturday.

There will continue to be a dichotomy in terms of temperatures
across the country, with the eastern third of the U.S. colder than
average, and well above average across the Plains and the Rockies.
The coldest anomalies will be across the Northeast this weekend
with both highs and lows 15 to 25 degrees below early February
standards. Multiple daily record low maximums are within the realm
of possibility from the northern Mid-Atlantic to New England, and a
few record overnight lows may be set, with overnight lows in the 0s
and low 10s near the coast, and subzero across the interior
Northeast by Sunday morning. The good news here is a moderating
trend will commence starting Monday, and readings should generally
be close to normal by Wednesday as the arctic airmass retreats.

The opposite will hold true across areas west of the Mississippi
River as anomalous warmth for this time of year will continue. The
highest anomalies are likely to be from eastern Montana and the
western Dakotas southward to the central Plains, with afternoon
highs running a good 20-30 degrees above average in many cases,
equating to highs well into the 50s and 60s for these areas. A
modest cooling trend is likely going into the beginning of next
week as the upper trough arrives across the West Coast region.

Hamrick


Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids,
quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF), excessive rainfall
outlook (ERO), winter weather outlook (WWO) probabilities, heat
indices, and Key Messages can be accessed from:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ero
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ovw