Weather Prediction Center

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
300 AM EST Tue Nov 10 2026

Valid 12Z Tue Nov 10 2026 - 12Z Thu Nov 12 2026

...Active Pacific storm track will bring more rain and mountain
snow to the Pacific Northwest over the next couple of days...

...Milder than normal temperatures across the U.S. will be
followed by drastically colder air surging into the eastern half
of the country by Wednesday night...

Heavy rain threat across southern Texas is expected to gradually
diminish today as the associated upper-level low slides off to the
east and weakens. Some showers will linger near western to central
Gulf Coast over the next couple of days. Meanwhile, above normal
temperatures will prevail across much of the U.S. under a zonal
upper-level flow pattern across the northern tier. This zonal flow
pattern will also allow a series of Pacific storm systems to reach
the west coast of North America, bringing periods of moderate rain
and some higher elevation snow to the Pacific Northwest over the
next few days. The Olympic peninsula can expect to see the heaviest
precipitation with total amounts of a few inches forecast through
Thursday morning.

Across the Great Lakes to the Northeast, clipper low pressure
systems moving across southern Canada under the quasi zonal upper
pattern will bring a couple rounds of scattered showers to portions
of the region through Wednesday. By later on Wednesday to Thursday
morning, a drastic change in the weather pattern will set the stage
for a cold airmass to surge into the eastern half the country. This
cold surge will work in concert with a low pressure wave to track
from the northern Plains tonight, reaching into the Appalachians by
Thursday morning. The low pressure wave will intensify and expand
in size to bring increasing winds into much of the eastern half of
the country by Thursday morning. The Midwest to the Ohio and
Tennessee Valleys can also expect embedded thunderstorms and gusty
winds as this system moves through on Wednesday. This will be
followed by falling temperatures Wednesday night into Thursday
morning. The upper Great Lakes could see wet snow by Thursday
morning.

Much of the western half of the country will remain milder than
normal and dry through Thursday morning other than the rain in the
Pacific Northwest. In contrast, parts of the Mid-Atlantic this
morning will be cold enough for frost where Frost Advisories are
in effect for portions of the eastern half of North Carolina and
Southeastern Virginia. The mild air will quickly overspread the
East Coast by this afternoon.


Kong


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
230 AM EST Tue Nov 10 2026

Valid 12Z Fri Nov 13 2026 - 12Z Tue Nov 17 2026


...Overview...

An active weather pattern will be in place across the Continental
U.S. starting at the end of this week, and persisting into early
next week with large scale troughs encompassing both the West Coast
and the East Coast. Multiple rounds of rain and mountain snow are
expected from California to Washington, and a cold rain with breezy
conditions for the Mid-Atlantic and the Northeast to close out the
work week. Between these troughs will be an upper ridge axis
across the western High Plains and the Dakotas, and a southern
stream trough crossing from the Desert Southwest to the southern
Plains through Monday that will likely bring some showers and
storms to these areas.

...Guidance/Predictability Assessment...

The 00Z model guidance suite features good overall agreement across
the U.S. domain for Friday, with a general deterministic model
blend used as a starting point for fronts and pressures. The 12Z
CMC run deviated from the model consensus by Saturday across the
West with a weaker trough and a faster arrival of the next storm
system on Sunday, but the 00Z run has trended more in line with the
consensus, and the GFS has trended stronger for Saturday. There has
also been a stronger trend for a southern stream low crossing Texas
by late Sunday into Monday, with the GFS and UKMET showing this
more than the weaker CMC and ECMWF. By the end of the forecast
period Tuesday, there is good agreement on the upper ridge over the
Plains, but more differences across the West Coast region as the
next trough approaches. The ensemble means were increased to about
40% by that time.

...Weather/Hazards Highlights...

The low pressure system crossing the east-central U.S. will be
exiting the East Coast on Friday, with some lingering coastal rain
and higher elevation snow across portions of the Northeast states.
On the backside of the departing East Coast low, the first lake
effect event of the season will likely bring a rain/snow mix for
locations downwind of the lower lakes, and mainly snow for the
Upper Peninsula of Peninsula, although any accumulations are
expected to be minor. Upslope snow is also likely across West
Virginia and western Maryland through Saturday.

Heavier precipitation is in the forecast for the West Coast states
as multiple frontal boundaries and moisture plumes affect the
region. The first will arrive on Friday with 1-2 inches of rainfall
for the lower elevations from northern California to western
Washington. A second front heralds the arrival of colder conditions
with lowering snow levels across the Sierra and northern California
ranges, with moderate accumulations likely. Moisture from this
system then reaches portions of the Intermountain West by Monday.
Another area of moderate to locally heavy rainfall is also expected
across portions of southern Texas over the weekend.

After a mild and pleasant middle of the week across the eastern
half of the nation, a return to much cooler temperatures can be
expected to close out the work week with the deep upper
trough/closed low developing. Highs will likely be about 5-15
degrees below average for Friday and Saturday from the Southeast
U.S. to the Mid-Atlantic and central Appalachians, making it feel
more like December. The first widespread frost and freeze of the
season is expected from interior portions of the Deep South and
extending northward into the Tennessee/Ohio Valley. There should
be a slow moderating trend towards early next week as the low
pressure system departs the region. Farther west, pleasantly mild
temperatures will continue across most of the Plains with the upper
ridge governing the weather pattern there.

Hamrick


Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids,
quantitative precipitation forecast, excessive rainfall outlook,
winter weather outlook probabilities, heat indices and Key Messages
are at:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ero
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ovw

Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
306 AM EST Mon Nov 9 2026

Valid 00Z Tue 10 Nov 2026 - 00Z Tue 17 Nov 2026

East-northeasterly trades will diminish early this week as
Tropical Storm Pena continues its westward track well south of the
Islands. Meanwhile, high pressure will continue to build across
the state from the north, with drier and more stable air
(seasonably low inversions) persisting across the island through
this weekend and into early next week. Clouds and shower activity
will therefore be limited to primarily windward and mauka areas
through the week and into next weekend.



Hurley

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
757 PM EST Sun Nov 8 2026
Day 1
Valid 01Z Mon Nov 09 2026 - 12Z Mon Nov 09 2026

..THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTH-
CENTRAL AND SOUTH TEXAS...

...01Z Update...
Started removing some territory over far South Texas where the
heaviest rainfall has largely shifted off-shore. Present
indications are that the highest rates will remain off-shore
through the remainder of the night but maintained a Slight risk
along and near the coast given the chance for westward/inland
propagation.

Farther north...difluent southerly flow aloft continues to support
areas of rainfall in and near the Edwards Plateau. Rainfall rates
have tapered dow to half inch per hour or less in 3 hrs across the
region. Even so, the Slight risk area was largely maintained given
some overlap of on- going precipitation with places that received
as much as 3.5 inches of rain in the past 24 hours according to
MRMS and with places where flooding had already been reported.

Bann

...16Z Update...

The latest runs of the HRRR seem to have the best handle on the
ongoing mesoscale setup across South Texas, depicting a persistent,
convergent line of convection from near Brownsville northward to
near Corpus Christi and points westward towards Duval county.
Subsidence west of this line has allowed precipitation to mostly
diminish, and models indicate any rainfall that returns should be
much less problematic. In coordination with WFO BRO, decided to
trim most of the SW portion of their CWA out of the existing SLGT
risk and keep it confined closer to the coast. North of BRO's CWA,
the concern is for another round of convective development later
this evening and overnight to bring more heavy rain to an area that
has already received more than 2" (with some locations from east
of Laredo eastward to near Kingsville having received over 5").
Given those concerns, the SLGT (which is considered to be an
"enhanced" SLGT) remains in place with only minor adjustments to
account for the latest observational trends and model guidance.

Miller

...Previous Discussion...

Current UA analysis and WV satellite presentation depict a deep,
closed upper reflection positioned over northern MX with a
prevailing southwest flow aloft encompassing the Southern Plains of
TX. A modest diffluent signature within the associated height
fields indicate a persistent ascent pattern between the Big Bend
down into the lower Rio Grande Valley (RGV) leading to copious
waves of showers and thunderstorms positioned along the RGV,
extending northeast into the northeastern part of the state. Recent
radar trends indicate a larger areal extent of convection
positioned along the immediate RGV as the coupling of large scale
ascent from our trough/ULL over MX interacts with a budding 30-40kt
LLJ centered basically on top of the RGV itself. This setup is
going according to plan with guidance and the current analysis in-
line with the general synoptic evolution and the precipitation
distribution across the state. Expectation is for heavy rainfall to
continue with a conglomeration of convection centered over south-
central TX in the vicinity of a strengthening surface trough
positioned over the interior portions of South Texas, mainly
bisecting the areas between Bexar county down to Cameron at the
southern tip of the state.

Assessment of the hi-res CAMs indicate a multi-wave scenario with
one round of heavy rainfall in the early portion of the forecast
transitioning to a complex of convection centered over the eastern
sections of Webb county over towards Corpus Christi by the
afternoon. Latest hi-res ensemble outputs note a solid 2-4",
locally higher occurring during the afternoon and early evening
hours before we see some re-firing of the convection over Deep
South TX with the re- development of the nocturnal LLJ tonight into
early Monday. REFS blended mean QPF is fairly robust with a
widespread 3-6" with as much as 8" occurring during the full period
with rates generally capped between 1-2"/hr at peak intensity as
MUCAPE will remain relatively low despite the modest theta_E
presence. REFS neighborhood probabilities for >3" remain elevated
with a large area of 60-90% probs centered over much of South TX,
mainly south of I-10 with the highest threat over the area
encompassed by Webb county over towards Corpus Christi. This area,
despite fairly high FFG thresholds, will still have a better than
normal opportunity for flash flooding due to extended priming and
longevity of the convective pattern overhead. Rainfall rates
coupled with the longstanding expectation of moderate to heavy rain
will boost the threat as we move forward in the D1 leading to the
best chances occurring in the late-afternoon and evening time frame
today, carrying into early Monday morning.

The previous SLGT and enhanced SLGT forecast was relatively
unchanged from the last update as guidance remains in solid
agreement on the convective details and heavy precipitation
positioning. A targeted upgrade is possible pending the evolution
and observed trends in the rainfall accumulations and relevant
flood obs that could occur. This would likely be proposed in future
updates, but current indications signal a continuation of the SLGT
risk with enhanced wording for those above locations.

Kleebauer


Day 1 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94epoints.txt

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
758 PM EST Mon Nov 9 2026
Day 1
Valid 01Z Tue Nov 10 2026 - 12Z Tue Nov 10 2026

..THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
OVER PORTIONS OF TEXAS...

The bulk of the heaviest rain from this system has already fallen
as a deepest moisture/greatest instability across South Texas has
been shunted off-shore while the closed low making its way
northward around the Hill Country and Edwards Plateau region
continues to pull away from the area.

There was a minor uptick in areal coverage of rainfall during the
early evening in proximity of the upper low so maintained the
Marginal Risk area. Normally the rainfall rates would not warrant
keeping a Marginal risk area but some of the area has been water-
logged over the past several days and remain hydrologically
vulnerable. But the decrease in rainfall coverage and rates has
allowed the removal of the Slight risk and a tightening of the
Marginal risk elsewhere.

Bann


Day 1 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94epoints.txt

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
758 PM EST Mon Nov 9 2026
Day 2
Valid 12Z Tue Nov 10 2026 - 12Z Wed Nov 11 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Miller


Day 2 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98epoints.txt

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
758 PM EST Mon Nov 9 2026
Day 3
Valid 12Z Wed Nov 11 2026 - 12Z Thu Nov 12 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Miller

Day 3 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/99epoints.txt

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
758 PM EST Mon Nov 9 2026
Day 4 and Day 5

Valid 12Z Thu Nov 12 2026 - 12Z Sat Nov 14 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Bann

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
758 PM EST Mon Nov 9 2026
Day 4 and Day 5

Valid 12Z Thu Nov 12 2026 - 12Z Sat Nov 14 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Bann

Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
255 AM EST Tue Nov 10 2026

Valid 12Z Tue Nov 10 2026 - 12Z Fri Nov 13 2026

...Great Lakes and Northeast...
Days 2-3...

As upper ridging builds into north central Canada late Wed into
Thu, troughing will dig southward from Ontario across the western
Great Lakes and into the Midwest/Northeast behind an exiting Mid-
Atlantic area of low pressure. Lake temperatures are still +8 to
+12C (Superior) and +10 to +15 (Michigan) and the incoming cold air
is seasonably chilly (though much colder than recent days). 850mb
temperatures are forecast to dip to around -5 to -10C (south to
north) yielding a delta-T of around 15-20C, supporting lake effect
precipitation. Surface temperatures will be coldest (and <32F) over
the U.P. of Michigan where multi-banded snow on northerly winds
will likely accumulate several inches Thursday into early Friday
(and beyond). Through 12Z Fri, the probability of at least 4 inches
of snow is >50% over the Huron Mountains (away from the warmer
lake shore). Northerly flow down the long axis of Lake Michigan
could spur a robust lake band of rain/snow into northwestern
Indiana Thursday evening into early Friday. Though temperatures are
marginal, the potential exists for a narrow area of modest wet
snow overnight if rates are sufficiently high.

Farther east, the combination of precipitation on the
northern/northwestern side of the exiting Mid-Atlantic system and
incoming modestly cold air from the west-northwest will lead to
periods of light to modest snow over especially the higher terrain
of the Adirondacks into the Green and White Mountains in VT/NH. The
probability of at least 4 inches of snow is >50% above about
3500ft. Minor impacts are likely (>50% chance) per the
probabilistic WSSI.


The probability of significant ice across the CONUS is less than
10 percent.


Fracasso

Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
230 AM EST Tue Nov 10 2026

Valid 12Z Fri Nov 13 2026 - 12Z Tue Nov 17 2026


...Overview...

An active weather pattern will be in place across the Continental
U.S. starting at the end of this week, and persisting into early
next week with large scale troughs encompassing both the West Coast
and the East Coast. Multiple rounds of rain and mountain snow are
expected from California to Washington, and a cold rain with breezy
conditions for the Mid-Atlantic and the Northeast to close out the
work week. Between these troughs will be an upper ridge axis
across the western High Plains and the Dakotas, and a southern
stream trough crossing from the Desert Southwest to the southern
Plains through Monday that will likely bring some showers and
storms to these areas.

...Guidance/Predictability Assessment...

The 00Z model guidance suite features good overall agreement across
the U.S. domain for Friday, with a general deterministic model
blend used as a starting point for fronts and pressures. The 12Z
CMC run deviated from the model consensus by Saturday across the
West with a weaker trough and a faster arrival of the next storm
system on Sunday, but the 00Z run has trended more in line with the
consensus, and the GFS has trended stronger for Saturday. There has
also been a stronger trend for a southern stream low crossing Texas
by late Sunday into Monday, with the GFS and UKMET showing this
more than the weaker CMC and ECMWF. By the end of the forecast
period Tuesday, there is good agreement on the upper ridge over the
Plains, but more differences across the West Coast region as the
next trough approaches. The ensemble means were increased to about
40% by that time.

...Weather/Hazards Highlights...

The low pressure system crossing the east-central U.S. will be
exiting the East Coast on Friday, with some lingering coastal rain
and higher elevation snow across portions of the Northeast states.
On the backside of the departing East Coast low, the first lake
effect event of the season will likely bring a rain/snow mix for
locations downwind of the lower lakes, and mainly snow for the
Upper Peninsula of Peninsula, although any accumulations are
expected to be minor. Upslope snow is also likely across West
Virginia and western Maryland through Saturday.

Heavier precipitation is in the forecast for the West Coast states
as multiple frontal boundaries and moisture plumes affect the
region. The first will arrive on Friday with 1-2 inches of rainfall
for the lower elevations from northern California to western
Washington. A second front heralds the arrival of colder conditions
with lowering snow levels across the Sierra and northern California
ranges, with moderate accumulations likely. Moisture from this
system then reaches portions of the Intermountain West by Monday.
Another area of moderate to locally heavy rainfall is also expected
across portions of southern Texas over the weekend.

After a mild and pleasant middle of the week across the eastern
half of the nation, a return to much cooler temperatures can be
expected to close out the work week with the deep upper
trough/closed low developing. Highs will likely be about 5-15
degrees below average for Friday and Saturday from the Southeast
U.S. to the Mid-Atlantic and central Appalachians, making it feel
more like December. The first widespread frost and freeze of the
season is expected from interior portions of the Deep South and
extending northward into the Tennessee/Ohio Valley. There should
be a slow moderating trend towards early next week as the low
pressure system departs the region. Farther west, pleasantly mild
temperatures will continue across most of the Plains with the upper
ridge governing the weather pattern there.

Hamrick


Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids,
quantitative precipitation forecast, excessive rainfall outlook,
winter weather outlook probabilities, heat indices and Key Messages
are at:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ero
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ovw