Weather Prediction Center

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
135 AM EST Sat Nov 14 2026

Valid 12Z Sat Nov 14 2026 - 12Z Mon Nov 16 2026

...Several rounds of rainfall and possible mountain snow continues
across the Pacific Northwest/West Coast through the weekend...

...Flash flooding risk across the southern Plains into Lower
Mississippi Valley through the weekend...

...Freeze and Frost conditions will spread across the Mid-Atlantic,
Southeast and Lower Mississippi Valley into Sunday morning...


A potent low pressure system offshore of the Pacific Northwest
will continue to bring unsettled weather across western U.S. An
associated frontal boundary and an atmospheric river will support
widespread rainfall and high elevation snow across the Pacific
Northwest into northern California. The frontal boundary will
continue to move further inland, shifting showers and mountain
snow across Intermountain West and the Four Corners. Repeated
rounds of rainfall will bring localized flooding concerns across
northwest Washington on Saturday. Furthermore, gusty winds, high
surf, and hazardous coastal conditions will remain a concern
through the weekend. Another round of moisture is expected to
approach the West Coast on Sunday, bringing another round of
precipitation across the Pacific Northwest and California.

Farther south, the mid-level trough will move eastward across the
Four Corners and southern Plains through the weekend, bringing
chances of modest mountain snow and rainfall across the area.
Increasing southwesterly flow combined with low- level moisture
from the Gulf, will support favorable environment for widespread
showers and isolated thunderstorms. Therefore, the risk for heavy
rainfall/flash flooding will focus over the Southern Plains on
Saturday and eventually the Lower Mississippi Valley/Coastal Texas
on Sunday as a wave of low pressure develops along a stationary
front.

A broad upper-level trough will remain established across eastern
U.S.. maintaining cyclonic flow and cold air advection across the
Great Lakes and Northeast. The persistent northwest flow will
support lake-effect rain and snow showers downwind of the Great
Lakes. Additional shortwave energy will help maintain scattered
showers across the Ohio Valley and Northeast. Colder temperatures
will support a rain-to-snow transition over higher elevations.
Meanwhile, chilly overnight temperatures will spread across
portions of the Southeast, Lower Mississippi Valley, and Mid-
Atlantic through the weekend as Frost Advisories and Freeze
Warnings are in effect through Sunday morning.


Oudit


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
151 AM EST Sat Nov 14 2026

Valid 12Z Tue Nov 17 2026 - 12Z Sat Nov 21 2026


...Overview...

An amplified upper level flow pattern will be in place next week
with troughing over the East initially and multiple rounds of
troughing over the West. This brings widespread rain and mountain
snow, which could eventually spread into the central U.S. by mid to
late week. In between, warmer than average temperatures are likely
for the north-central U.S. as an upper ridge sets up ahead of the
western troughs, spreading eastward late week. A southern stream
shortwave moving slowly through the Southeast may keep rain and
scattered thunderstorms in the forecast for the Gulf Coast states
and Florida early in the week.


...Guidance/Predictability Assessment...

Guidance continues to show good agreement the first half of the
week with a departing trough in the East, and an initial trough
pivoting/lifting through the Four Corners states into the northern
Plains by midweek. A general model compromise worked well through
midweek.

After Wednesday, guidance still struggles with details, placement,
and timing of an upper low as it enters the West late Wednesday or
Thursday. GFS is slower with the low as it moves into California,
but then eventually catches up by the end of the period as the wave
lifts into the Central U.S.. Towards the end of the period, ECMWF
becomes an outlier wanting to maintain some connection with this
system and another upper low/trough off the West Coast next
Saturday, while the other guidance is more separated with distinct
ridging in between. ECENS mean generally follows suit with the
ECMWF. Trended towards a heavier blend of the ensemble means with
the EC-AIFS late period.


...Weather/Hazards Highlights...

Multiple rounds of moderate to locally heavy precipitation are
forecast for the West as frontal boundaries and moisture plumes
affect the region. One relatively strong front will be moving
through the West on Tuesday, spreading lower elevation rain and
higher elevation snow across the Great Basin and Rockies. While the
details are uncertain, some rain and snow may reach the northern
Plains by midweek with rain farther south. The Pacific Northwest
can expect persistent precipitation into early next week as another
upper low drops down the coast, pushing into California by
midweek. This brings more widespread rain and mountain snows across
the West, including heavy snow potential in the Sierra Nevada with
the upper low overhead. Heavy rain potential is increasing across
especially California on Wednesday, where WPC has a Marginal Risk
on the Excessive Rainfall Outlook. Rain chances could get renewed
in the central U.S. ahead of the trough with snow possible on the
north and west side of a surface low later in the week as well.

A low pressure/frontal system traversing the Gulf to the south of
a broad east-central to eastern U.S. surface high will result in
rainfall spreading across the Gulf Coast and Florida early next
week, with the heaviest rainfall mostly offshore. Rain is forecast
to linger into at least the east coast of Florida for midweek and
beyond.

Cooler than average high temperatures will remain across
California into the central Great Basin underneath upper troughing
next week. The broad surface high centered in the Ohio Valley and
vicinity early next week will bring chilly temperatures to the
South and East. Highs in the 50s in portions of Texas are more
typical of January, and frost/freeze hazards could be a concern for
portions of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic for the early part of
next week. Meanwhile the north-central U.S. can expect above normal
conditions during the period under the upper ridge, with
widespread highs in the 50s. The warmer than average temperatures
should gradually spread east and south later next week, moderating
conditions across the East.


Santorelli


Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids,
quantitative precipitation forecast, excessive rainfall outlook,
winter weather outlook probabilities, heat indices and Key Messages
are at:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ero
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ovw

Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
358 AM EST Sat Nov 14 2026

Valid 00Z Sun 15 Nov 2026 - 00Z Sun 22 Nov 2026

An approaching front and passing area of high pressure in its
wake to the northeast of the state will bring a period of
enhanced, gustier trade winds late this weekend and into early
next week. Stronger flow and greater moisture along/ahead of the
dissipating boundary will lead to a period of more moderate to
heavy Mauka/windward showers through mid-next week, particularly
for the Big Island. There will likely be a brief lull in stronger
trades late next week as the high weakens before another front
with strong high pressure in its wake brings another round of
gustier winds into next weekended. Shower activity looks to
moderate some compared to early in the week but daily
Mauka/windward showers can still be expected into the weekend.

Putnam

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
316 AM EST Sat Nov 14 2026
Day 1
Valid 12Z Sat Nov 14 2026 - 12Z Sun Nov 15 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS NORTHWEST
WASHINGTON STATE IN THE AREA OF THE OLYMPIC PENINSULA AS WELL AS
NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS...

North-Central Texas

Global and CAM models have begun to resolve upper-level trough
phasing and continued to converge on the placement of heavy to
potentially excessive convective rainfall today. A mid-level
trough cutting across the Rockies while phasing with a southern
stream disturbance prior to the start of the Day 1 period will
likely lead to surface cyclogenesis later tonight followed by
convective initiation. Storms will then propagate from eastern
portions of the Texas panhandle through northern-central parts of
the state overnight.

Instability of about 100-400 J/Kg MU/ML CAPE paired with 1-1.25"
precipitable water values through central Texas could yield
efficient rain rates. Relative soil moisture is fairly dry so some
of this rain may be more beneficial. 14/00Z RRFS 40km neighborhood
probability of 24 hr QPF exceeding 1-3" is over 5%, which is
consistent with WPC's marginal risk (at least 5% chance) area.

...Previous Discussion...

00Z guidance continues to show the arrival of another round of
moderate to heavy rainfall across portions of the Pacific Northwest
later today. The two-day rainfall total may be enough to result in
isolated flash- and areal- flooding with the 24-hour rainfall
amount ending 12Z on Sunday generally being 1 inch to 3 inches in
addition to what fell Friday and early this morning. Timing largely
remains consistent with the expectation being that much of the
rainfall is expected to occur later tonight in advance of the
approaching cold front. This could send some of the river banks
overflowing and cause some local flood concerns, some of which
could be flashy.

Bann


Day 1 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94epoints.txt

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
316 AM EST Sat Nov 14 2026
Day 2
Valid 12Z Sun Nov 15 2026 - 12Z Mon Nov 16 2026

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF
COASTAL TEXAS ON SUNDAY...

Enough ingredients appear to be coming together to warrant a Slight
Risk area on Sunday as convection associated with a mid-level
trough approaches from the west/northwest early Sunday. Even if the
models prove to be correct in keeping the highest rainfall totals
off-shore...the there are an increasing number of signals that
problematic rainfall amounts could develop inland (especially true
in urbanized areas and where there is overlap with areas that
received 1.5 to 4.0 inches of rain within the past week).

Synoptically, low-level flow off the Gulf will be drawn northward
across portions of the Upper and Central Texas coast early in the
period in response to the approach of an upper level trough
(potentially an upper low). The GFS and ECMWF both depict 30 to 45
kt flow with decent directional shear in the 925-700 mb
layer...suggesting potential for organized convection. At the same
time, precipitable water values approach 1.5 inches (or 1.5 to 2.0
standardized anomalies greater than climatology for this time of
year).

The models do show a plume of air with precipitable water values
greater than an inch extending northward. Maintained the Marginal
risk area here over questions about how much instability will be
present.

The upper system approaching from the northwest helps shnut the
heaviest rainfall off the coast with time,

Bann


Day 2 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98epoints.txt

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
316 AM EST Sat Nov 14 2026
Day 3
Valid 12Z Mon Nov 16 2026 - 12Z Tue Nov 17 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Bann

Day 3 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/99epoints.txt

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
316 AM EST Sat Nov 14 2026
Day 4 and Day 5

Valid 12Z Tue Nov 17 2026 - 12Z Thu Nov 19 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WEDNESDAY...

An upper-trough and accompanying cold front will progress eastward
from the West Coast into the Interior West day 4/Tuesday.
Increasing moisture along and with the frontal passage will lead to
scattered showers and thunderstorms across the Desert Southwest
and into the Four Corners Region. However, limited instability and
modest moisture should keep rates low and the progressive nature of
the system passage should limit rain totals overall.

Another Atmospheric River (AR) will quickly follow in the wake of
this previous system bringing heavy precipitation to
northern/central California day 5/Wednesday. Snow levels will
briefly increase with the approach of the warmer, moist Pacific
air, though likely not reach levels seen with more significant ARs,
particularly along the foothills of the Sierra given remnant
colder air still in place from the prior system (~4500 feet). The
AR is also expected to generally be on the weaker side and
progressive overall. However, the forecast IVTs of ~ 500 kg/ms
still should contribute to some heavy rainfall amounts, and the
latest round of 00Z deterministic guidance all support areal
average rainfall in the 1-2" range with locally higher amounts
upwards of 3-4". This would be more than sufficient to raise
isolated flooding concerns, and thus have introduced a Marginal
Risk covering upslope regions of the northern/central Coastal
Ranges and inland through the Bay Area to the Sacramento Valley and
foothills of the Sierra.

Putnam

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
316 AM EST Sat Nov 14 2026
Day 4 and Day 5

Valid 12Z Tue Nov 17 2026 - 12Z Thu Nov 19 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WEDNESDAY...

An upper-trough and accompanying cold front will progress eastward
from the West Coast into the Interior West day 4/Tuesday.
Increasing moisture along and with the frontal passage will lead to
scattered showers and thunderstorms across the Desert Southwest
and into the Four Corners Region. However, limited instability and
modest moisture should keep rates low and the progressive nature of
the system passage should limit rain totals overall.

Another Atmospheric River (AR) will quickly follow in the wake of
this previous system bringing heavy precipitation to
northern/central California day 5/Wednesday. Snow levels will
briefly increase with the approach of the warmer, moist Pacific
air, though likely not reach levels seen with more significant ARs,
particularly along the foothills of the Sierra given remnant
colder air still in place from the prior system (~4500 feet). The
AR is also expected to generally be on the weaker side and
progressive overall. However, the forecast IVTs of ~ 500 kg/ms
still should contribute to some heavy rainfall amounts, and the
latest round of 00Z deterministic guidance all support areal
average rainfall in the 1-2" range with locally higher amounts
upwards of 3-4". This would be more than sufficient to raise
isolated flooding concerns, and thus have introduced a Marginal
Risk covering upslope regions of the northern/central Coastal
Ranges and inland through the Bay Area to the Sacramento Valley and
foothills of the Sierra.

Putnam

Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
148 AM EST Sat Nov 14 2026

Valid 12Z Sat Nov 14 2026 - 12Z Tue Nov 17 2026


...Northeast...
Day 1...

Impressive mid-level trough across the eastern CONUS will meander
through Saturday as the core (closed low) drops across Maine while
slowly opening. Height anomalies across the east are progged to
drop below the 2.5th percentile, indicative of the anomalous nature
of the trough. At the same time, as the upper low center drops
across Maine, it will shed a vorticity lobe southeast from Upstate
NY through the Mid-Atlantic, beneath which a surface trough will
dig southeast as well. Together, this evolution will enhance the
ongoing cold air advection (CAA), increase lapse rates to drive
strong instability, and cause enhanced ascent through upslope flow,
especially in the upwind Adirondacks and Greens. Additionally, lake
enhanced moisture from the eastern Great Lakes will spread
southeast - the result of which will be an expansion of SE
advancing precipitation in streamers or convective rain/snow
showers.

The heaviest accumulations are likely in the upwind terrain of the
Adirondacks and the Greens where the probability of at least 4" is
as high as 30-50%, with local 4" snowfall also possible across the
higher terrain of the Whites in NH. Elsewhere, while amounts will
be less, streamers and convective snow showers with brief gusty
winds and heavy rates to cause difficult travel will occur across
much of northern PA, Upstate NY and into parts of northern/central
New England.


...Western United States...
Days 1-3...

Two distinct troughs and accompanying atmospheric rivers (ARs) will
continue an active pattern with high-elevation snow across much of
the West through mid-week.

The first trough will be exiting the Great Basin and pushing east
into the Central High Plains as a positively tilted feature today
into tonight. An overlap of mid-level height falls with modest jet
diffluence occurring immediately downstream of a surface cold front
will provide deep layer ascent into the still moist column. This
deep layer lift combined with locally enhanced ascent through
upslope flow will result in periods of heavy snow today and
tonight, especially across the Wasatch, Uintas, San Juans, and
Sangre de Cristos. Snow levels are expected to be elevated at
7000-9000 ft, but above these levels there is a high chance
(50-80%) of at least 6" of snow, with locally as much as 12" in the
San Juans.

As this feature ejects eastward late D1 into D2, a more substantial
trough develops off the Pacific Coast stemming from a closed low in
the Gulf of Alaska. A lobe of vorticity shedding from this primary
low will advect towards the OR/CA coast by Monday morning, with the
downstream AR providing IVT above 500 kg/m/s with a S/SW direction
impinging onshore. This will occur ahead of a subsequent cold
front, and the accompanying warm air advection (WAA) will surge
snow levels to support heavy snow above around 8000 ft, before
crashing in the wake of the cold front to as low as 4500 ft. This
will support snowfall rates of at least 1"/hr late Sunday into
Monday across the Sierra, northern CA ranges, and parts of the
Cascades, supporting a high probabilities (>70%) for at least 6"
accumulation despite the limited temporal duration of heavy snow.

As the front shifts into the Great Basin and Northern Rockies into
D3, intensifying fgen is likely to develop in response to both the
low-level baroclinic gradient, but also enhancement from the
poleward arcing jet streak downstream of the primary trough axis.
While there is still a bit of uncertainty as to the timing of this
front, the impressive lift along it combined with rapidly cooling
snow levels will support an arc of heavy snowfall from the Sierra
northeast across much of central/northern NV and into the mountains
and even elevated valleys of ID and western MT which will produce
difficult travel across these areas.

The probability of significant ice across the CONUS is less than
10 percent.


Weiss

Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
151 AM EST Sat Nov 14 2026

Valid 12Z Tue Nov 17 2026 - 12Z Sat Nov 21 2026


...Overview...

An amplified upper level flow pattern will be in place next week
with troughing over the East initially and multiple rounds of
troughing over the West. This brings widespread rain and mountain
snow, which could eventually spread into the central U.S. by mid to
late week. In between, warmer than average temperatures are likely
for the north-central U.S. as an upper ridge sets up ahead of the
western troughs, spreading eastward late week. A southern stream
shortwave moving slowly through the Southeast may keep rain and
scattered thunderstorms in the forecast for the Gulf Coast states
and Florida early in the week.


...Guidance/Predictability Assessment...

Guidance continues to show good agreement the first half of the
week with a departing trough in the East, and an initial trough
pivoting/lifting through the Four Corners states into the northern
Plains by midweek. A general model compromise worked well through
midweek.

After Wednesday, guidance still struggles with details, placement,
and timing of an upper low as it enters the West late Wednesday or
Thursday. GFS is slower with the low as it moves into California,
but then eventually catches up by the end of the period as the wave
lifts into the Central U.S.. Towards the end of the period, ECMWF
becomes an outlier wanting to maintain some connection with this
system and another upper low/trough off the West Coast next
Saturday, while the other guidance is more separated with distinct
ridging in between. ECENS mean generally follows suit with the
ECMWF. Trended towards a heavier blend of the ensemble means with
the EC-AIFS late period.


...Weather/Hazards Highlights...

Multiple rounds of moderate to locally heavy precipitation are
forecast for the West as frontal boundaries and moisture plumes
affect the region. One relatively strong front will be moving
through the West on Tuesday, spreading lower elevation rain and
higher elevation snow across the Great Basin and Rockies. While the
details are uncertain, some rain and snow may reach the northern
Plains by midweek with rain farther south. The Pacific Northwest
can expect persistent precipitation into early next week as another
upper low drops down the coast, pushing into California by
midweek. This brings more widespread rain and mountain snows across
the West, including heavy snow potential in the Sierra Nevada with
the upper low overhead. Heavy rain potential is increasing across
especially California on Wednesday, where WPC has a Marginal Risk
on the Excessive Rainfall Outlook. Rain chances could get renewed
in the central U.S. ahead of the trough with snow possible on the
north and west side of a surface low later in the week as well.

A low pressure/frontal system traversing the Gulf to the south of
a broad east-central to eastern U.S. surface high will result in
rainfall spreading across the Gulf Coast and Florida early next
week, with the heaviest rainfall mostly offshore. Rain is forecast
to linger into at least the east coast of Florida for midweek and
beyond.

Cooler than average high temperatures will remain across
California into the central Great Basin underneath upper troughing
next week. The broad surface high centered in the Ohio Valley and
vicinity early next week will bring chilly temperatures to the
South and East. Highs in the 50s in portions of Texas are more
typical of January, and frost/freeze hazards could be a concern for
portions of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic for the early part of
next week. Meanwhile the north-central U.S. can expect above normal
conditions during the period under the upper ridge, with
widespread highs in the 50s. The warmer than average temperatures
should gradually spread east and south later next week, moderating
conditions across the East.


Santorelli


Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids,
quantitative precipitation forecast, excessive rainfall outlook,
winter weather outlook probabilities, heat indices and Key Messages
are at:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ero
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ovw