Weather Prediction Center

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
300 PM EST Thu Mar 06 2025

Valid 00Z Fri Mar 07 2025 - 00Z Sun Mar 09 2025

...Low pressure system will bring widespread mountain snow across the
western U.S. and a swath of moderate to locally heavy snowfall across the
north-central Plains through Friday...

...Critical fire weather conditions expected to continue across the
southern High Plains...

...Colder and drier air to arrive across the East but with some areas of
snowfall downwind of the Great Lakes and into the central and northern
Appalachians...

A broad low pressure system currently developing over the interior western
U.S. will bring widespread unsettled weather eastward into the mid-section
of the country through the next couple of days. In the short term,
widespread mountain snow will affect the Great Basin eastward into the
northern and central Rockies into Friday. The low pressure system will
begin to move across the central Plains. Colder air will support a swath
of moderate to locally heavy snowfall north of the track of the low
pressure center from the northern Rockies eastward across the
north-central Plains where up to locally a foot of new snow is possible on
Friday. Snow will extend as far east as portions of the Midwest including
Iowa and northern Illinois where at least a few inches of accumulation can
be expected. In addition, a piece of upper-level disturbance embedded
within the broad system will bring lower-elevation rain and mountain snow
across the southwestern U.S. through Friday, reaching into the Four
Corners by Friday night. The mountain snow will then advance further east
across the southern Rockies on Saturday. Heaviest snowfall of 1 to 2 feet
can be expected along the Mogollon Rim and the San Juan Mountains in the
Rockies, as well as across the higher terrain of the central Rockies and
along the Wasatch of Utah.

Farther south over the southern High Plains on the warmer and drier side
of this storm system, there will once again be concerns for wildfire
activity, as a combination of low relative humidities and gusty winds is
expected to once again result in critical fire weather conditions which
will primarily encompass much of eastern and southern New Mexico and out
into western Texas.

Across the eastern U.S., colder and drier air will continue to be ushered
into the area behind a slowly departing deep cyclone across the Canadian
Maritimes. The proximity of the deep low will allow the rain to change
over to light snow tonight across northern Maine, followed by a period of
light to moderate snow through Friday morning as a final low pressure wave
is forecast to pass just to the east. A reinforcing shot of colder air
will be accompanied with areas of snow showers to bring locally several
inches of lake-enhanced snowfall downwind of the Great Lakes and into the
upslope areas of the central and northern Appalachians on Friday.
Meanwhile, rain and a few embedded thunderstorms will begin to develop in
Texas Saturday morning and expand eastward into Louisiana by Saturday
afternoon as a wave of low pressure develops along a cold front.

Kong


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
223 PM EST Thu Mar 6 2025

Valid 12Z Sun Mar 09 2025 - 12Z Thu Mar 13 2025


...Overview...

Overall, the medium range forecast period is looking fairly
tranquil to start before turning more active late, especially
across the Western U.S. There are caveats, however. Sunday into
Monday, a deep, closed, and positively tilted upper level low will
track from the ArkLaTex region south and east along the northern
Gulf Coast. This feature will force the development of a surface
low that will bring widespread showers and thunderstorms to
portions of the Southeast, some of which could contain heavy
rainfall. In the Northeast, a fast-moving clipper will dive south
and eastward across the northern New England states Sunday night
into Monday, bringing a brief period of light to moderate snow and
mixed rain/snow showers. Meanwhile, farther west, a large, high
amplitude ridge will shift eastward into the central and southern
Plains, bringing mainly dry and much above normal temperatures
along with it. This springlike weather eventually slides into the
Eastern U.S. Tuesday into Wednesday. Finally, a large and
potentially deep Pacific storm, accompanied by an atmospheric
river, is looking increasingly likely to bring widespread rain and
snow to much of the West for the middle of next week.

...Guidance/Predictability Assessment...

The latest deterministic and ensemble model guidance remains in
decent overall agreement for the evolution of the large scale
pattern through the medium range period. However, subtle
differences emerge when looking closer at smaller scale features. A
majority of guidance has come into much better agreement with the
strength and speed of the upper level low tracking from the
southern Plains and along the northern Gulf Coast Sunday into
Monday. Most models keep the upper low closed, compact, and slower,
which translates to a stronger surface low and heavier, more
widespread precipitation. The set of guidance that had not quite
caught on were the 00Z and 06Z GFS, which opened the closed low
into an open wave and sheared it apart as it quickly exited the
Southeast U.S. coast. Machine Learning (ML) guidance, particularly
the AIFS, was also in the stronger and slower camp. This anti-GFS
consensus gave high enough confidence to completely exclude the GFS
from the favored blend.

Out West, models were in generally good agreement with a leading
closed low making landfall across southern California, before
eventually opening it up into an open wave. That lead wave is then
followed by a much stronger and deeper upper trough, with varying
differences in speed and strength. With that being said, agreement
is quite good for a Day 5-7 forecast, with the big picture showing
an active pattern with the growing potential for widespread heavy
rain along the California coast and heavy snow in the high
elevations of the West and Intermountain West.

The initial model blend consisted of the 00Z ECMWF, 00Z CMC and
00Z UKMET. By mid-period, the UKMET was dropped and replaced with
increased weighting of the GEFS and EC ensemble means through the
end of the extended period.

...Weather/Hazards Highlights...

Aside from the GFS, guidance has come into much better agreement
with the evolution of the upper low and surface low in the
Southeast Sunday into Monday. Guidance continues to highlight the
potential for heavy showers and thunderstorms on Day 4, with the EC
mean showing the potential for 2+ inches of rainfall across
portions of southern Georgia and northern Florida. Given better
agreement, decided to introduce a Marginal Risk for excessive
rainfall for that area.

The West Coast will be ramping up for a multi-day wet period. Over
the weekend an eastern Pacific trough will direct an atmospheric
river into Vancouver Island with some precipitation extending into
northwestern Washington state. An upper low closing off near
California by early Monday will move across southern California,
becoming an open wave as it does so. This wave will bring light to
moderate rain and snow to the low and high elevations respectively.
In the wake of that system, a stronger and deeper Pacific storm
with a potentially moderate atmospheric river will likely bring
heavier and more widespread precipitation and locally strong winds
to much of the West and Intermountain West later in the period.

Above average temperatures will expand eastward through the
northern Plains, the Midwest, and eventually into the Eastern U.S.
through the Days 4-7 period as a large ridge builds overhead and
slides east. These regions will likely see several days with highs
pushing 15-30F above early March averages. This warmth may push
highs well into the 60s from the Dakotas into Iowa and into the 70s
as far north as the Middle Mississippi Valley and parts of the
Mid-Atlantic. In response to increasing clouds and precipitation
across the West, below normal temperatures become more common,
particularly Wednesday and Thursday.

Miller

Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids,
quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF), excessive rainfall
outlook (ERO), winter weather outlook (WWO) probabilities, heat
indices, and Key Messages can be accessed from:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ero
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ovw

Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
302 AM EST Thu Mar 06 2025

Valid 00Z Fri Mar 07 2025 - 00Z Fri Mar 14 2025

A frontal boundary approaching the islands will lead to
easterly/northeasterly winds along with possible daily showers for
the favored terrain locations. After the passage of a frontal
boundary the subtropical high will rebuild and strengthen north of
the state.

Campbell

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
723 PM EST Thu Mar 6 2025
Day 1
Valid 16Z Thu Mar 06 2025 - 12Z Fri Mar 07 2025

...A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL EXISTS FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...

...01Z update...
Radar/satellite imagery indicate gradually increasing rain rates
across portions of the Transverse Ranges in southern California.
These rates increase somewhat while translating southeastward
toward San Diego County and adjacent areas of the Peninsular Ranges
as a stout mid-level wave migrates toward the region. The forecast
remains on track, with areas of 1-1.5 inch rainfall totals expected
(highest in terrain-favored areas). Minor flooding may result in a
few areas.

Cook

...16z update...
Based on 12z Hi-Res solutions and trending for most direct
impact/core of moisture flux mainly across San Diego county and
points south in Mexico into the Peninsular Range, trimmed back the
Marginal Risk exclude much of the LA Basin and lower foothills of
the Transverse Ranges. Otherwise, thinking/rainfall totals in the
1-1.5" range remains on track that may result in minor flooding
concerns mainly after 00z.

Gallina

---Prior Discussion---
Trailing vorticity maxima analyzed off the
coast of CA will rotate around the backside of the mean trough
ejecting into the Southwestern U.S. A slight void in
precipitation, outside some lingering showers will transpire this
morning as the primary ascent focuses further inland. A trailing
mid-level shortwave will motion east-southeastward into the
southern portion of CA later this afternoon and evening with one
last enhancement for scattered to widespread convection as the
energy accompanies a more focused 850-700mb moisture flux as
progged. The heaviest precip time frame will likely occur as the
nose of the 700mb jet moves ashore near San Diego with the
streaming westerlies working inland with low- level ascent
maximized over the southern end of the Transverse Range down
through the Peninsular Range just east of San Diego proper.

Latest CAMs output is pretty consistent with the areal max hovering
between 1-2" across the above locations with the highest situated
closer to the Baja border just east of the SD metro. This is mainly
due to the forecast orientation of the 700mb jet co-located within
this small zone, a consistency among most of the deterministic
suite this evening. PWATs will be generally near to just above
seasonal for the anomalies (0.6-0.9"), but considering the previous
period of rainfall with remnant burn scars being impacted
currently, the continued rainfall will only maintain the potential
for low-end flash flood exceedance. With the 00z HREF
EAS/neighborhood probs nestled between 70-90% for at least 1" over
the hardest hit locations in the Peninsular/Transverse domain, a
continuation of the MRGL risk was still relevant given the
characteristics above.

Kleebauer


Day 1 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94epoints.txt

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
723 PM EST Thu Mar 6 2025
Day 2
Valid 12Z Fri Mar 07 2025 - 12Z Sat Mar 08 2025

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Otto

Day 2 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98epoints.txt

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
723 PM EST Thu Mar 6 2025
Day 3
Valid 12Z Sat Mar 08 2025 - 12Z Sun Mar 09 2025

...A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL EXISTS FOR PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST...

A fairly robust upper-low over the Southwestern U.S will pivot
eastward into the Southern Plains with multiple shortwave ejections
crossing out of the Gulf with steady motion through the Gulf
coast. The proxy of the dynamic upper pattern will help to organize
a surface low during the day on Saturday with most deterministic
depicting a low somewhere between the Sabine River to roughly the
middle Texas coast for 00Z Sunday. Southerly flow ahead of the
mean trough will lead to the advection of warm, moist air
northward with the leading edge of deepest moisture at/near the
surface likely returning northward through the central and eastern
Gulf but not quite making it to land. Precipitable water values are
forecast to rise into the 1.5 to 1.9" range along the east-central
Gulf Coast on Saturday into Saturday night (standardized anomalies
becoming 2+ for early March).

Meanwhile, a well-defined cold front is expected advance southward
through the lower Mississippi Valley and Gulf Coast states into
the northern Gulf from Saturday to Sunday morning. Low level
convergence at the leading edge of 925-850 mb moisture transport is
forecast to align with the mean steering flow from west to east
along or near the Mississippi/Alabama coasts into the Florida
Panhandle. Forecast consensus of MUCAPE shows values of 500-1000
J/kg along the coast to ~150-200 miles inland which could support
rainfall rates of 1 to 2 in/hr. Lift will likely be aided by upper
level divergence within the right-entrance region of a 140-160 kt
upper level jet located from the lower Mississippi Valley to the
Mid-Atlantic coast.

The GFS remains a northern outlier with the QPF max likely related
to its faster and farther north depiction of a 500 mb low moving
over Texas and Oklahoma compared to the remaining non GFS/GEFS
based guidance. Trends with most of the deterministic models have
been south with QPF, aligning with the ML guidance placement.
Deterministic QPF output is in the 1 to 3 inch range for the 24
hour period ending 12Z on the 9th, but the ECMWF has maxima closer
to 4 inches. Meanwhile, the ensembles have been relatively
consistent over the past 24 hours of runs with only the GEFS
focusing QPF farther north.

Only minor adjustments were made to the previous Marginal Risk
across the region with fairly dry antecedent conditions and typical
higher flash flood guidance values a consideration for keeping the
risk no higher than Marginal at this time. Localized flash
flooding will remain possible across this region but further
adjustments to the risk area will be likely as the event draws
nearer and hires model QPF becomes available.

Otto/Kleebauer

Day 3 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/99epoints.txt

Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
223 PM EST Thu Mar 6 2025


Aside from the GFS, guidance has come into much better agreement
with the evolution of the upper low and surface low in the
Southeast Sunday into Monday. Guidance continues to highlight the
potential for heavy showers and thunderstorms on Day 4, with the EC
mean showing the potential for 2+ inches of rainfall across
portions of southern Georgia and northern Florida. Given better
agreement, decided to introduce a Marginal Risk for excessive
rainfall for that area.

The West Coast will be ramping up for a multi-day wet period. Over
the weekend an eastern Pacific trough will direct an atmospheric
river into Vancouver Island with some precipitation extending into
northwestern Washington state. An upper low closing off near
California by early Monday will move across southern California,
becoming an open wave as it does so. This wave will bring light to
moderate rain and snow to the low and high elevations respectively.
In the wake of that system, a stronger and deeper Pacific storm
with a potentially moderate atmospheric river will likely bring
heavier and more widespread precipitation and locally strong winds
to much of the West and Intermountain West later in the period.

Above average temperatures will expand eastward through the
northern Plains, the Midwest, and eventually into the Eastern U.S.
through the Days 4-7 period as a large ridge builds overhead and
slides east. These regions will likely see several days with highs
pushing 15-30F above early March averages. This warmth may push
highs well into the 60s from the Dakotas into Iowa and into the 70s
as far north as the Middle Mississippi Valley and parts of the
Mid-Atlantic. In response to increasing clouds and precipitation
across the West, below normal temperatures become more common,
particularly Wednesday and Thursday.

Miller

Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
223 PM EST Thu Mar 6 2025


Aside from the GFS, guidance has come into much better agreement
with the evolution of the upper low and surface low in the
Southeast Sunday into Monday. Guidance continues to highlight the
potential for heavy showers and thunderstorms on Day 4, with the EC
mean showing the potential for 2+ inches of rainfall across
portions of southern Georgia and northern Florida. Given better
agreement, decided to introduce a Marginal Risk for excessive
rainfall for that area.

The West Coast will be ramping up for a multi-day wet period. Over
the weekend an eastern Pacific trough will direct an atmospheric
river into Vancouver Island with some precipitation extending into
northwestern Washington state. An upper low closing off near
California by early Monday will move across southern California,
becoming an open wave as it does so. This wave will bring light to
moderate rain and snow to the low and high elevations respectively.
In the wake of that system, a stronger and deeper Pacific storm
with a potentially moderate atmospheric river will likely bring
heavier and more widespread precipitation and locally strong winds
to much of the West and Intermountain West later in the period.

Above average temperatures will expand eastward through the
northern Plains, the Midwest, and eventually into the Eastern U.S.
through the Days 4-7 period as a large ridge builds overhead and
slides east. These regions will likely see several days with highs
pushing 15-30F above early March averages. This warmth may push
highs well into the 60s from the Dakotas into Iowa and into the 70s
as far north as the Middle Mississippi Valley and parts of the
Mid-Atlantic. In response to increasing clouds and precipitation
across the West, below normal temperatures become more common,
particularly Wednesday and Thursday.

Miller

Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
159 PM EST Thu Mar 6 2025

Valid 00Z Fri Mar 07 2025 - 00Z Mon Mar 10 2025

...Great Lakes and Maine...
Day 1...

Negatively tilted longwave trough extending between two pronounced
shortwaves will pivot northeast across New England and the
Mid-Atlantic tonight. This trough is the remnant of the closed low
which produced a powerful blizzard over the Upper Midwest, and the
southern impulse will likely cause secondary cyclogenesis with
rapid strengthening off of New England and into the Gulf of Maine
tonight. As this low lifts into the Canadian Maritimes, it will
spread heavy snow across Maine, with upstream resultant NW flow
from the Great Lakes into New England driving a combination of lake
effect snow (LES) and upslope snow into the Adirondacks and
Greens/Whites. The heaviest snow is likely across portions of
northeast Maine where WPC probabilities reach 50-70% for 4+ inches
and 30% for 6+ inches. Moderate to heavy snow is also likely across
the eastern U.P., southeast of lake Ontario, and into the
Greens/Whites where WPC probabilities for 4+ inches are as high as
50%.


...Central Rockies through the Upper Midwest...
Days 1-2...

Lee cyclogenesis east of the Rockies will develop this evening
downstream of a positively tilted but amplified upper level trough
swinging through the Great Basin and towards the Central Rockies.
An intensifying and meridionally shifting jet streak downstream of
the primary trough axis will place favorable LFQ diffluence across
the High Plains, additionally supporting the rapid development of
this cyclone. As the low strengthens, it will move almost due east
in response to confluent and increasingly zonal flow across the
central/eastern parts of the CONUS.

As this low pivots east from Colorado to Illinois by Friday night,
it will drive a swath of heavy precipitation to its north, caused
by an overlap of synoptic ascent through the left-exit of the jet
streak aloft, and expanding 850-600mb frontogenesis. At the same
time, moist isentropic ascent, especially in the 290-295K layer
will surge northward creating PWs that will rise to above the 90th
percentile within the CFSR climatology, upon which the ample ascent
will drive a stripe of heavy snow. The warm/moist advection
lifting northward and being acted upon by intense fgen will result
in translating bands of heavy snow. Neutral static-stability
reflected by theta-e lapse rates nearing 0C/km within the axis of
strongest ascent could cause snowfall rates to reach 1+"/hr at
times, which is additionally supported by the WPC prototype
snowband tool, especially from eastern WY through NE. Where these
bands linger, heavy snowfall exceeding 6 inches is likely (>70%)
according to WPC probabilities across eastern WY and NE, with
moderate probabilities (30%) for 4+ inches extending as far east as
central IA.


...Four Corners States...
Days 1-2...

The forecast period begins with an amplified longwave trough
positioned across the Great Basin and extending into the Northern
Rockies. This trough will gradually pivot eastward through D1 and
into D2 as two distinct shortwaves drop from the interior Northwest
through the trough axis and then eject eastward into the Southern
Rockies, eventually merging into a closed low over New Mexico on
Saturday. Impressive height anomalies falling to below the 10th
percentile according to NAEFS ensemble tables over the Southwest
will combine with an increasingly meridionally shaped downstream
jet streak to provide ample ascent across the Four Corners into
Saturday.

At the same time, a surface low will move along the CA coast
beneath this trough evolution and then shift onshore into AZ and
then NM, producing additional ascent to support widespread
precipitation. Snow levels throughout the region will generally
hover in the 4000-5000 ft range, but downstream of the low and
within the most robust warm advection, they may at times rise to as
high as 7000 ft, especially in the Sangre de Cristos D1 into D2
before crashing later Saturday. WPC probabilities D1 for more than
6 inches of snow are high (>70%) in the Ruby Mountains of NV, along
the Wasatch, into the Uintas, CO Rockies, San Juans, and along the
Mogollon Rim. During D2, the highest probabilities become confined
to the Sangre de Cristos and along the Raton Mesa where locally as
much as 12 inches of snow is possible.


Weiss

Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
223 PM EST Thu Mar 6 2025

Valid 12Z Sun Mar 09 2025 - 12Z Thu Mar 13 2025


...Overview...

Overall, the medium range forecast period is looking fairly
tranquil to start before turning more active late, especially
across the Western U.S. There are caveats, however. Sunday into
Monday, a deep, closed, and positively tilted upper level low will
track from the ArkLaTex region south and east along the northern
Gulf Coast. This feature will force the development of a surface
low that will bring widespread showers and thunderstorms to
portions of the Southeast, some of which could contain heavy
rainfall. In the Northeast, a fast-moving clipper will dive south
and eastward across the northern New England states Sunday night
into Monday, bringing a brief period of light to moderate snow and
mixed rain/snow showers. Meanwhile, farther west, a large, high
amplitude ridge will shift eastward into the central and southern
Plains, bringing mainly dry and much above normal temperatures
along with it. This springlike weather eventually slides into the
Eastern U.S. Tuesday into Wednesday. Finally, a large and
potentially deep Pacific storm, accompanied by an atmospheric
river, is looking increasingly likely to bring widespread rain and
snow to much of the West for the middle of next week.

...Guidance/Predictability Assessment...

The latest deterministic and ensemble model guidance remains in
decent overall agreement for the evolution of the large scale
pattern through the medium range period. However, subtle
differences emerge when looking closer at smaller scale features. A
majority of guidance has come into much better agreement with the
strength and speed of the upper level low tracking from the
southern Plains and along the northern Gulf Coast Sunday into
Monday. Most models keep the upper low closed, compact, and slower,
which translates to a stronger surface low and heavier, more
widespread precipitation. The set of guidance that had not quite
caught on were the 00Z and 06Z GFS, which opened the closed low
into an open wave and sheared it apart as it quickly exited the
Southeast U.S. coast. Machine Learning (ML) guidance, particularly
the AIFS, was also in the stronger and slower camp. This anti-GFS
consensus gave high enough confidence to completely exclude the GFS
from the favored blend.

Out West, models were in generally good agreement with a leading
closed low making landfall across southern California, before
eventually opening it up into an open wave. That lead wave is then
followed by a much stronger and deeper upper trough, with varying
differences in speed and strength. With that being said, agreement
is quite good for a Day 5-7 forecast, with the big picture showing
an active pattern with the growing potential for widespread heavy
rain along the California coast and heavy snow in the high
elevations of the West and Intermountain West.

The initial model blend consisted of the 00Z ECMWF, 00Z CMC and
00Z UKMET. By mid-period, the UKMET was dropped and replaced with
increased weighting of the GEFS and EC ensemble means through the
end of the extended period.

...Weather/Hazards Highlights...

Aside from the GFS, guidance has come into much better agreement
with the evolution of the upper low and surface low in the
Southeast Sunday into Monday. Guidance continues to highlight the
potential for heavy showers and thunderstorms on Day 4, with the EC
mean showing the potential for 2+ inches of rainfall across
portions of southern Georgia and northern Florida. Given better
agreement, decided to introduce a Marginal Risk for excessive
rainfall for that area.

The West Coast will be ramping up for a multi-day wet period. Over
the weekend an eastern Pacific trough will direct an atmospheric
river into Vancouver Island with some precipitation extending into
northwestern Washington state. An upper low closing off near
California by early Monday will move across southern California,
becoming an open wave as it does so. This wave will bring light to
moderate rain and snow to the low and high elevations respectively.
In the wake of that system, a stronger and deeper Pacific storm
with a potentially moderate atmospheric river will likely bring
heavier and more widespread precipitation and locally strong winds
to much of the West and Intermountain West later in the period.

Above average temperatures will expand eastward through the
northern Plains, the Midwest, and eventually into the Eastern U.S.
through the Days 4-7 period as a large ridge builds overhead and
slides east. These regions will likely see several days with highs
pushing 15-30F above early March averages. This warmth may push
highs well into the 60s from the Dakotas into Iowa and into the 70s
as far north as the Middle Mississippi Valley and parts of the
Mid-Atlantic. In response to increasing clouds and precipitation
across the West, below normal temperatures become more common,
particularly Wednesday and Thursday.

Miller

Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids,
quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF), excessive rainfall
outlook (ERO), winter weather outlook (WWO) probabilities, heat
indices, and Key Messages can be accessed from:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ero
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ovw