Weather Prediction Center

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
300 AM EST Tue Nov 10 2026

Valid 12Z Tue Nov 10 2026 - 12Z Thu Nov 12 2026

...Active Pacific storm track will bring more rain and mountain
snow to the Pacific Northwest over the next couple of days...

...Milder than normal temperatures across the U.S. will be
followed by drastically colder air surging into the eastern half
of the country by Wednesday night...

Heavy rain threat across southern Texas is expected to gradually
diminish today as the associated upper-level low slides off to the
east and weakens. Some showers will linger near western to central
Gulf Coast over the next couple of days. Meanwhile, above normal
temperatures will prevail across much of the U.S. under a zonal
upper-level flow pattern across the northern tier. This zonal flow
pattern will also allow a series of Pacific storm systems to reach
the west coast of North America, bringing periods of moderate rain
and some higher elevation snow to the Pacific Northwest over the
next few days. The Olympic peninsula can expect to see the heaviest
precipitation with total amounts of a few inches forecast through
Thursday morning.

Across the Great Lakes to the Northeast, clipper low pressure
systems moving across southern Canada under the quasi zonal upper
pattern will bring a couple rounds of scattered showers to portions
of the region through Wednesday. By later on Wednesday to Thursday
morning, a drastic change in the weather pattern will set the stage
for a cold airmass to surge into the eastern half the country. This
cold surge will work in concert with a low pressure wave to track
from the northern Plains tonight, reaching into the Appalachians by
Thursday morning. The low pressure wave will intensify and expand
in size to bring increasing winds into much of the eastern half of
the country by Thursday morning. The Midwest to the Ohio and
Tennessee Valleys can also expect embedded thunderstorms and gusty
winds as this system moves through on Wednesday. This will be
followed by falling temperatures Wednesday night into Thursday
morning. The upper Great Lakes could see wet snow by Thursday
morning.

Much of the western half of the country will remain milder than
normal and dry through Thursday morning other than the rain in the
Pacific Northwest. In contrast, parts of the Mid-Atlantic this
morning will be cold enough for frost where Frost Advisories are
in effect for portions of the eastern half of North Carolina and
Southeastern Virginia. The mild air will quickly overspread the
East Coast by this afternoon.


Kong


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
230 AM EST Tue Nov 10 2026

Valid 12Z Fri Nov 13 2026 - 12Z Tue Nov 17 2026


...Overview...

An active weather pattern will be in place across the Continental
U.S. starting at the end of this week, and persisting into early
next week with large scale troughs encompassing both the West Coast
and the East Coast. Multiple rounds of rain and mountain snow are
expected from California to Washington, and a cold rain with breezy
conditions for the Mid-Atlantic and the Northeast to close out the
work week. Between these troughs will be an upper ridge axis
across the western High Plains and the Dakotas, and a southern
stream trough crossing from the Desert Southwest to the southern
Plains through Monday that will likely bring some showers and
storms to these areas.

...Guidance/Predictability Assessment...

The 00Z model guidance suite features good overall agreement across
the U.S. domain for Friday, with a general deterministic model
blend used as a starting point for fronts and pressures. The 12Z
CMC run deviated from the model consensus by Saturday across the
West with a weaker trough and a faster arrival of the next storm
system on Sunday, but the 00Z run has trended more in line with the
consensus, and the GFS has trended stronger for Saturday. There has
also been a stronger trend for a southern stream low crossing Texas
by late Sunday into Monday, with the GFS and UKMET showing this
more than the weaker CMC and ECMWF. By the end of the forecast
period Tuesday, there is good agreement on the upper ridge over the
Plains, but more differences across the West Coast region as the
next trough approaches. The ensemble means were increased to about
40% by that time.

...Weather/Hazards Highlights...

The low pressure system crossing the east-central U.S. will be
exiting the East Coast on Friday, with some lingering coastal rain
and higher elevation snow across portions of the Northeast states.
On the backside of the departing East Coast low, the first lake
effect event of the season will likely bring a rain/snow mix for
locations downwind of the lower lakes, and mainly snow for the
Upper Peninsula of Peninsula, although any accumulations are
expected to be minor. Upslope snow is also likely across West
Virginia and western Maryland through Saturday.

Heavier precipitation is in the forecast for the West Coast states
as multiple frontal boundaries and moisture plumes affect the
region. The first will arrive on Friday with 1-2 inches of rainfall
for the lower elevations from northern California to western
Washington. A second front heralds the arrival of colder conditions
with lowering snow levels across the Sierra and northern California
ranges, with moderate accumulations likely. Moisture from this
system then reaches portions of the Intermountain West by Monday.
Another area of moderate to locally heavy rainfall is also expected
across portions of southern Texas over the weekend.

After a mild and pleasant middle of the week across the eastern
half of the nation, a return to much cooler temperatures can be
expected to close out the work week with the deep upper
trough/closed low developing. Highs will likely be about 5-15
degrees below average for Friday and Saturday from the Southeast
U.S. to the Mid-Atlantic and central Appalachians, making it feel
more like December. The first widespread frost and freeze of the
season is expected from interior portions of the Deep South and
extending northward into the Tennessee/Ohio Valley. There should
be a slow moderating trend towards early next week as the low
pressure system departs the region. Farther west, pleasantly mild
temperatures will continue across most of the Plains with the upper
ridge governing the weather pattern there.

Hamrick


Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids,
quantitative precipitation forecast, excessive rainfall outlook,
winter weather outlook probabilities, heat indices and Key Messages
are at:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ero
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ovw

Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
313 AM EST Tue Nov 10 2026

Valid 00Z Wed 11 Nov 2026 - 00Z Wed 18 Nov 2026

For Tuesday, expect isolated showers in primarily the windward
and mauka areas and dry conditions elsewhere as a result of below
average moisture across the island chain. Typical trade winds will
be present. On Wednesday and Thursday, a strong area of high
pressure north of the Hawaiian Islands will bring an increase in
winds with the tightening pressure gradient. A narrow band of
moisture is also forecast to push across the islands late Thursday
into Friday with a decaying frontal boundary and may increase
shower chances. Behind this front, expect breezy winds to continue
with showers primarily over the windward areas of the island.



Wilder

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1031 AM EST Tue Nov 10 2026
Day 1
Valid 16Z Tue Nov 10 2026 - 12Z Wed Nov 11 2026

...16Z Update...

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Wegman


Day 1 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94epoints.txt

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1031 AM EST Tue Nov 10 2026
Day 2
Valid 12Z Wed Nov 11 2026 - 12Z Thu Nov 12 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Kleebauer


Day 2 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98epoints.txt

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1031 AM EST Tue Nov 10 2026
Day 3
Valid 12Z Thu Nov 12 2026 - 12Z Fri Nov 13 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Kleebauer

Day 3 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/99epoints.txt

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1031 AM EST Tue Nov 10 2026
Day 4 and Day 5

Valid 12Z Fri Nov 13 2026 - 12Z Sun Nov 15 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH TEXAS SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent on Day 4 (12Z Fri-12Z Sat).

On Day 5 (12Z Sat-12Z Sun), added a Marginal Risk area across the
Texas Coast into the Hill Country. The subtropical jet remains
active, and during this period the next southern stream upper jet
streak and attendant mid-upper shortwave traverses the outlook
area. The guidance is split on the heavy rainfall risk, with the
GFS and ECMWF QPF (both operational and ensemble means) coming in
heavier than their AI runs, while also heaver than the CMC and
UKMet. Given the transient nature of the deep layer forcing and
favorable thermodynamic profile (uptick in S-SE low-level flow off
the western Gulf and thus increasing theta-e/TPW/IVT advection),
the ERO risk at this point is considered a 'low-end' Marginal (i.e.
closer to a 5-10% neighborhood probability). However, the setup
would favor heavy rainfall, especially if the shortwave amplifies a
bit more which would slow the W-E progression somewhat. Moreover,
both the operational GFS and ECMWF show areas of 3-6" of rain on
Day 5, with these global (non CAM) high-end amounts indicative of
the heavy rainfall potential if the favorable ingredients can
persist over a sufficient period of time.

Hurley

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1031 AM EST Tue Nov 10 2026
Day 4 and Day 5

Valid 12Z Fri Nov 13 2026 - 12Z Sun Nov 15 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH TEXAS SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent on Day 4 (12Z Fri-12Z Sat).

On Day 5 (12Z Sat-12Z Sun), added a Marginal Risk area across the
Texas Coast into the Hill Country. The subtropical jet remains
active, and during this period the next southern stream upper jet
streak and attendant mid-upper shortwave traverses the outlook
area. The guidance is split on the heavy rainfall risk, with the
GFS and ECMWF QPF (both operational and ensemble means) coming in
heavier than their AI runs, while also heaver than the CMC and
UKMet. Given the transient nature of the deep layer forcing and
favorable thermodynamic profile (uptick in S-SE low-level flow off
the western Gulf and thus increasing theta-e/TPW/IVT advection),
the ERO risk at this point is considered a 'low-end' Marginal (i.e.
closer to a 5-10% neighborhood probability). However, the setup
would favor heavy rainfall, especially if the shortwave amplifies a
bit more which would slow the W-E progression somewhat. Moreover,
both the operational GFS and ECMWF show areas of 3-6" of rain on
Day 5, with these global (non CAM) high-end amounts indicative of
the heavy rainfall potential if the favorable ingredients can
persist over a sufficient period of time.

Hurley

Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
255 AM EST Tue Nov 10 2026

Valid 12Z Tue Nov 10 2026 - 12Z Fri Nov 13 2026

...Great Lakes and Northeast...
Days 2-3...

As upper ridging builds into north central Canada late Wed into
Thu, troughing will dig southward from Ontario across the western
Great Lakes and into the Midwest/Northeast behind an exiting Mid-
Atlantic area of low pressure. Lake temperatures are still +8 to
+12C (Superior) and +10 to +15 (Michigan) and the incoming cold air
is seasonably chilly (though much colder than recent days). 850mb
temperatures are forecast to dip to around -5 to -10C (south to
north) yielding a delta-T of around 15-20C, supporting lake effect
precipitation. Surface temperatures will be coldest (and <32F) over
the U.P. of Michigan where multi-banded snow on northerly winds
will likely accumulate several inches Thursday into early Friday
(and beyond). Through 12Z Fri, the probability of at least 4 inches
of snow is >50% over the Huron Mountains (away from the warmer
lake shore). Northerly flow down the long axis of Lake Michigan
could spur a robust lake band of rain/snow into northwestern
Indiana Thursday evening into early Friday. Though temperatures are
marginal, the potential exists for a narrow area of modest wet
snow overnight if rates are sufficiently high.

Farther east, the combination of precipitation on the
northern/northwestern side of the exiting Mid-Atlantic system and
incoming modestly cold air from the west-northwest will lead to
periods of light to modest snow over especially the higher terrain
of the Adirondacks into the Green and White Mountains in VT/NH. The
probability of at least 4 inches of snow is >50% above about
3500ft. Minor impacts are likely (>50% chance) per the
probabilistic WSSI.


The probability of significant ice across the CONUS is less than
10 percent.


Fracasso

Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
230 AM EST Tue Nov 10 2026

Valid 12Z Fri Nov 13 2026 - 12Z Tue Nov 17 2026


...Overview...

An active weather pattern will be in place across the Continental
U.S. starting at the end of this week, and persisting into early
next week with large scale troughs encompassing both the West Coast
and the East Coast. Multiple rounds of rain and mountain snow are
expected from California to Washington, and a cold rain with breezy
conditions for the Mid-Atlantic and the Northeast to close out the
work week. Between these troughs will be an upper ridge axis
across the western High Plains and the Dakotas, and a southern
stream trough crossing from the Desert Southwest to the southern
Plains through Monday that will likely bring some showers and
storms to these areas.

...Guidance/Predictability Assessment...

The 00Z model guidance suite features good overall agreement across
the U.S. domain for Friday, with a general deterministic model
blend used as a starting point for fronts and pressures. The 12Z
CMC run deviated from the model consensus by Saturday across the
West with a weaker trough and a faster arrival of the next storm
system on Sunday, but the 00Z run has trended more in line with the
consensus, and the GFS has trended stronger for Saturday. There has
also been a stronger trend for a southern stream low crossing Texas
by late Sunday into Monday, with the GFS and UKMET showing this
more than the weaker CMC and ECMWF. By the end of the forecast
period Tuesday, there is good agreement on the upper ridge over the
Plains, but more differences across the West Coast region as the
next trough approaches. The ensemble means were increased to about
40% by that time.

...Weather/Hazards Highlights...

The low pressure system crossing the east-central U.S. will be
exiting the East Coast on Friday, with some lingering coastal rain
and higher elevation snow across portions of the Northeast states.
On the backside of the departing East Coast low, the first lake
effect event of the season will likely bring a rain/snow mix for
locations downwind of the lower lakes, and mainly snow for the
Upper Peninsula of Peninsula, although any accumulations are
expected to be minor. Upslope snow is also likely across West
Virginia and western Maryland through Saturday.

Heavier precipitation is in the forecast for the West Coast states
as multiple frontal boundaries and moisture plumes affect the
region. The first will arrive on Friday with 1-2 inches of rainfall
for the lower elevations from northern California to western
Washington. A second front heralds the arrival of colder conditions
with lowering snow levels across the Sierra and northern California
ranges, with moderate accumulations likely. Moisture from this
system then reaches portions of the Intermountain West by Monday.
Another area of moderate to locally heavy rainfall is also expected
across portions of southern Texas over the weekend.

After a mild and pleasant middle of the week across the eastern
half of the nation, a return to much cooler temperatures can be
expected to close out the work week with the deep upper
trough/closed low developing. Highs will likely be about 5-15
degrees below average for Friday and Saturday from the Southeast
U.S. to the Mid-Atlantic and central Appalachians, making it feel
more like December. The first widespread frost and freeze of the
season is expected from interior portions of the Deep South and
extending northward into the Tennessee/Ohio Valley. There should
be a slow moderating trend towards early next week as the low
pressure system departs the region. Farther west, pleasantly mild
temperatures will continue across most of the Plains with the upper
ridge governing the weather pattern there.

Hamrick


Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids,
quantitative precipitation forecast, excessive rainfall outlook,
winter weather outlook probabilities, heat indices and Key Messages
are at:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ero
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ovw