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Day 2 Outlook >
WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook Risk of 1 to 6 hour rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance at a point
Updated: 0738 UTC Sat Nov 9, 2024
Valid: 12 UTC Nov 09, 2024 - 12 UTC Nov 10, 2024
Forecast Discussion
Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
248 AM EST Sat Nov 9 2024
Day 1
Valid 12Z Sat Nov 09 2024 - 12Z Sun Nov 10 2024
...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN AND NEAR IMPERIAL
CALCASIEU IN LOUISIANA...
An upper level low will move faster towards the northeast. As
Rafael moves west over the central Gulf, a plume of moisture with
precipitable water values of 1.5-2" gets drawn north ahead of the
surface low's strong cold front. The front will likely be the
dominant forcing for storms in this region as it stalls, which have
already begun to evolve in recent radar imagery. The southern
areas of Louisiana and Mississippi will have the greater moisture.
MU CAPE rises to 1000 J/kg or so across parts of LA/MS/TN. Areas
further north have soils which are more saturated/flash flood
guidance is lower. The front should progress slow enough that
training storms tracking north along the front could still cause
flooding problems, especially over portions of LA, MS, and TN.
Hourly rain totals to 2.5" and local amounts of around 8" due to
cell training appear likely based on the 00z HREF probabilities of
8" totals. There is much better agreement on the placement when
compared to this time yesterday. Portions of Central LA have
received 300%+ of their average seven day rainfall, so soils should
have some sensitivity. Coordination with the LCH/Lake Charles LA
forecast office led to the increase to a High Risk.
Roth
Day 1 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94epoints.txt
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