Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1158 AM EDT Fri May 15 2026
Day 1
Valid 16Z Fri May 15 2026 - 12Z Sat May 16 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Wegman

..16z Update..

A progressive frontal system is expected to bring a linear complex
of thunderstorms through most of Iowa this evening through the
overnight. Updated 12Z HREF nieghborhood probabilities have
increased over the last couple of cycles, with now moderate
chances (50%) of rainfall exceeding 2 inches. 12Z HREF also shows
an isolated risk 3hr FFG exceedance (~40%) throughout northern
Iowa. However, due to antecendant dry conditions, and an
expectation for the system to move fairly progressively, the nil
ERO has been maintained. There is however a non-zero chance of
isolated urban flash flooding in northern Iowa.

Blanco-Alcala

Day 1 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94epoints.txt