Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
824 PM EDT Wed Jun 29 2022
 
Day 1
Valid 01Z Thu Jun 30 2022 - 12Z Thu Jun 30 2022 

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS 
OF THE SOUTHEAST AND THE SOUTHWEST AS WELL AS SOUTHERN FLORIDA...

...Southwest...
The Marginal Risk area was maintained for portions of Arizona and 
southwest New Mexico where moisture (precipitable water values of 
a little less than 1.0 inches) will be lingering in a region of 
light and variable low level flow. Models indicate moist 
southwesterly flow developing upstream...resulting in a plume of 
higher precipitable water values that noses towards Arizona and 
(in a few cases) near the site of recent flash flooding. With soil 
moisture well above the 98th percentile for much of this area, 
isolated flash flooding and runoff is a concern.   

...Southeast...
23Z Update -- Expanded the Marginal Risk area a bit to the north 
across more of central MS and central-northern AL-GA, based on the 
latest observational and mesoanalysis trends, along with the 18Z 
CAMs (including HREF 40km neighborhood exceedance probabilities).

Hurley

16Z update -- Hi-res solutions keep rainfall rates upwards of 1-2 
inches/hour across the Gulf Coast and points to the north. 
Marginal Risk in effect covers most of the locations with 
increased sensitivity for excessive rainfall and isolated flash 
flooding concerns; however, it was expanded into southern South 
Carolina. Storms associated with a MCV tracking through Georgia 
and South Carolina could produce 2 to 3 inches/hour this afternoon.

Campbell

 
Day 1 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94epoints.txt