Weather Prediction Center

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
338 PM EDT Mon May 11 2026

Valid 00Z Tue May 12 2026 - 00Z Thu May 14 2026

...There is a Marginal Risk (level 1/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts
of the Lower Mississippi River Valley and Southeast today ...

...There is a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of
the Lower Mississippi River Valley today...

...There is a Critical Fire Weather Risk over parts of Eastern Montana
and Western North Dakota today...

A frontal system from the Northeast to the Gulf Coast is currently
producing heavy rain along southern Louisiana, the Florida Peninsula and
the Coastal Carolinas. These thunderstorm systems are capable to producing
isolated severe weather with locally damaging wind gusts and hail through
this evening. For these reasons, Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued
a Marginal Risk (level 1/5) for severe weather in the affected areas. In
addition Weather Prediction Center (WPC) has issued a Slight Risk (level
2/4) for excessive rainfall over the southern portion of Louisiana. A
cluster of thunderstorms currently off the coast is expected to continue
drifting along just off the coast through the day, today. With ample
moisture in place, the cold front moving in, and peak day time heating, a
new round of convection is expected to produce moderate to heavy rainfall
and increasing potential for flash flooding.


A system currently exiting the Northern Rockies Region is progressing east
into the Northern Great Plains and will move south and eastward into the
Great Lakes and Ohio Valley on Tuesday. The frontal system will produce
showers and thunderstorms over the Northern Plains on Monday evening, into
the Ohio Valley and the Mississippi Valleys by Tuesday evening. Isolated
severe storms with strong wind gusts and hail are possible from parts of
southeast Kansas, northern Illinois, northwest Indiana, and southeastern
Wisconsin. As a result, SPC has issued a Marginal Risk (level 1/5). A
similar step up is expected on the Atlantic Coastal Florida as SPC also
issued a Marginal Risk (level 1/5) for the same hazards associated with
the cold front over Florida. On Wednesday, the frontal system moves into
the Mid-Atlantic Region where SPC has issued a Marginal Risk (level 1/5)
for isolated severe weather over the Central Appalachia Region.
Furthermore, the western third of the country will be relatively quiet for
the next 3-5 Days.

Lastly, a Critical Fire Weather Risk (level 2/3) is in place for parts of
eastern Montana and western North Dakota due to gusty winds, low relative
humidity, and dry vegetation. Winds are expected to reach 20-25 mph, with
gusts up to 35 mph. Humidity levels could decrease to as low as 20-25% in
the afternoon.

Green

Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
405 PM EDT Mon May 11 2026

Valid 12Z Thu May 14 2026 - 12Z Mon May 18 2026


...Guidance/Predictability Assessment...

Guidance seems reasonably clustered with the overall larger scale
upper pattern evolution through next Monday, as highlighted by a
warming ridge that slides eastward into the central U.S. as an
amplified downstream trough shifts over/off the Northeast.
Notably, guidance has trended slightly more amplified for this
trough over New England, with higher wrap-around QPFs into interior
New England Friday to Saturday.

Across the Northwest, with the upper trough pushing through and
then interacting with northern stream this weekend, there is higher
uncertainty on how the surface low will consolidate over the
northern Plains. Ensemble means are reasonably agreeable among
models but there is emerging agreement for an elongated low to
consolidate over the central Plains on Sunday. The latest guidance
is placing a little more emphasis on a wave ejecting out the
central Rockies toward the Midwest on Friday. In addition, guidance
has shown a trend for a stronger cyclone to move faster across
southern Canada. This stronger cyclone has resulted in a better-
defined front to trail south and interact with the ejecting wave
over the central Plains. The end result is an increase in rain
chances from the Midwest toward Ohio Valley Friday to early
Saturday ahead of a warm front lifting northeastward from the
central Plains.

There is also a trend for the aforementioned elongated low to be
deeper over the central Plains by Sunday. This will tend to
enhance southerly flow up the Plains toward the Midwest as the
weekend progresses. The associated dynamic forcings will likely
lead to higher temperatures across central to southern Plains this
weekend, as well as higher precipitation and thunderstorm chances
across the upper Midwest Sunday into Monday associated with a warm
front.

With the uncertainties noted above, the WPC forecast charts
are based on the latest global model consensus but with higher
percentages from the ensemble means beginning on Day 5 Saturday.


...Weather/Hazards Highlights...

It generally remains the case that an eastern Canadian closed
upper-level low/trough will help support longwave troughing down
over the eastern U.S. through late week. Impulses will lead to the
progression of a wavy frontal systems and showers/thunderstorms
through the East. System progression to the Atlantic will spawn
moderate coastal cyclogenesis with wrapping moisture/rains lifting
up/off the East Coast as a maritime threat. Troughing breaks down
by the weekend as low amplitude ridging builds in from the west.

Upstream, an eastern Pacific closed low is slated, still with much
uncertainty, to advance inland mid-late week to focus organized
light to moderate precipitation most likely across portions of the
northern Great Basin, Pacific Northwest, and northern Rockies.
Surface lows and frontal boundaries will form downstream, bringing
weekend shower/thunderstorm chances broadly from the central U.S.
to the Midwest/Great Lakes/East. Farther upstream system energies
with some showers will subsequently work inland into the West and
downstream over the lower 48 with uncertain timing in embedded
shortwaves and occasional amplifictions within a generally zonal
pattern aloft.

Temperatures for the eastern U.S. will be below normal into late
week before moderating with upper trough ejection to the Atlantic.
Meanwhile, an eastward shifting upper ridge will gradually spread
well above normal temperatures across the Central to East-Central
U.S. that may produce several summertime high temperature records.


Kong/Schichtel


Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids,
quantitative precipitation forecast, excessive rainfall outlook,
winter weather outlook probabilities, heat indices and Key
Messages are at:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ero
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ovw

Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
330 AM EDT Mon May 11 2026

Valid 00Z Tue 12 May 2026 - 00Z Tue 19 May 2026

A stable synoptic pattern will continue to take hold early in the
period as deep ridging becomes established north of the island
chain. This robust high pressure will act as the primary driver
for the return of a typical trade wind regime, supported by a
notable pressure gradient that will maintain easterly flow through
the upcoming week. While global models indicate a subtle weakness
in the upper-level ridge centering over the state by mid to late
week, there appears to be little disruption to the low-level flow.
Surface high pressure is expected to persist north to northeast
of the islands, ensuring that moderate to locally fresh easterly
winds continue into early next week. Precipitation will be
characterized by passing showers embedded in the trades and
focused mostly along the windward slopes and mauka areas.

Pereira

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
849 PM EDT Mon May 11 2026
Day 1 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94epoints.txt

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
849 PM EDT Mon May 11 2026
Day 2 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98epoints.txt

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
849 PM EDT Mon May 11 2026
Day 3
Valid 12Z Wed May 13 2026 - 12Z Thu May 14 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than five percent.

Blanco-Alcala
Day 3 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/99epoints.txt

Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
405 PM EDT Mon May 11 2026


It generally remains the case that an eastern Canadian closed
upper-level low/trough will help support longwave troughing down
over the eastern U.S. through late week. Impulses will lead to the
progression of a wavy frontal systems and showers/thunderstorms
through the East. System progression to the Atlantic will spawn
moderate coastal cyclogenesis with wrapping moisture/rains lifting
up/off the East Coast as a maritime threat. Troughing breaks down
by the weekend as low amplitude ridging builds in from the west.

Upstream, an eastern Pacific closed low is slated, still with much
uncertainty, to advance inland mid-late week to focus organized
light to moderate precipitation most likely across portions of the
northern Great Basin, Pacific Northwest, and northern Rockies.
Surface lows and frontal boundaries will form downstream, bringing
weekend shower/thunderstorm chances broadly from the central U.S.
to the Midwest/Great Lakes/East. Farther upstream system energies
with some showers will subsequently work inland into the West and
downstream over the lower 48 with uncertain timing in embedded
shortwaves and occasional amplifictions within a generally zonal
pattern aloft.

Temperatures for the eastern U.S. will be below normal into late
week before moderating with upper trough ejection to the Atlantic.
Meanwhile, an eastward shifting upper ridge will gradually spread
well above normal temperatures across the Central to East-Central
U.S. that may produce several summertime high temperature records.


Kong/Schichtel

Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
405 PM EDT Mon May 11 2026


It generally remains the case that an eastern Canadian closed
upper-level low/trough will help support longwave troughing down
over the eastern U.S. through late week. Impulses will lead to the
progression of a wavy frontal systems and showers/thunderstorms
through the East. System progression to the Atlantic will spawn
moderate coastal cyclogenesis with wrapping moisture/rains lifting
up/off the East Coast as a maritime threat. Troughing breaks down
by the weekend as low amplitude ridging builds in from the west.

Upstream, an eastern Pacific closed low is slated, still with much
uncertainty, to advance inland mid-late week to focus organized
light to moderate precipitation most likely across portions of the
northern Great Basin, Pacific Northwest, and northern Rockies.
Surface lows and frontal boundaries will form downstream, bringing
weekend shower/thunderstorm chances broadly from the central U.S.
to the Midwest/Great Lakes/East. Farther upstream system energies
with some showers will subsequently work inland into the West and
downstream over the lower 48 with uncertain timing in embedded
shortwaves and occasional amplifictions within a generally zonal
pattern aloft.

Temperatures for the eastern U.S. will be below normal into late
week before moderating with upper trough ejection to the Atlantic.
Meanwhile, an eastward shifting upper ridge will gradually spread
well above normal temperatures across the Central to East-Central
U.S. that may produce several summertime high temperature records.


Kong/Schichtel

Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
154 PM EDT Wed May 6 2026

Valid 00Z Thu May 07 2026 - 00Z Sun May 10 2026

...WPC Winter Weather Desk no longer routinely staffed until
late September, 2026...

Pending any significant winter weather, the WPC Winter Weather Desk
will not be staffed through the summer. The desk will resume
continuous staffing starting in the fall.

The WPC winter products will continue to be produced, however, and
all products except the heavy snow discussion (HSD) will be
available. This includes the Winter Storm Outlook (WSO), Winter
Storm Severity Index (WSSI), and Probabilistic Winter Precipitation
Forecasts (PWPF).


WPC

Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
405 PM EDT Mon May 11 2026

Valid 12Z Thu May 14 2026 - 12Z Mon May 18 2026


...Guidance/Predictability Assessment...

Guidance seems reasonably clustered with the overall larger scale
upper pattern evolution through next Monday, as highlighted by a
warming ridge that slides eastward into the central U.S. as an
amplified downstream trough shifts over/off the Northeast.
Notably, guidance has trended slightly more amplified for this
trough over New England, with higher wrap-around QPFs into interior
New England Friday to Saturday.

Across the Northwest, with the upper trough pushing through and
then interacting with northern stream this weekend, there is higher
uncertainty on how the surface low will consolidate over the
northern Plains. Ensemble means are reasonably agreeable among
models but there is emerging agreement for an elongated low to
consolidate over the central Plains on Sunday. The latest guidance
is placing a little more emphasis on a wave ejecting out the
central Rockies toward the Midwest on Friday. In addition, guidance
has shown a trend for a stronger cyclone to move faster across
southern Canada. This stronger cyclone has resulted in a better-
defined front to trail south and interact with the ejecting wave
over the central Plains. The end result is an increase in rain
chances from the Midwest toward Ohio Valley Friday to early
Saturday ahead of a warm front lifting northeastward from the
central Plains.

There is also a trend for the aforementioned elongated low to be
deeper over the central Plains by Sunday. This will tend to
enhance southerly flow up the Plains toward the Midwest as the
weekend progresses. The associated dynamic forcings will likely
lead to higher temperatures across central to southern Plains this
weekend, as well as higher precipitation and thunderstorm chances
across the upper Midwest Sunday into Monday associated with a warm
front.

With the uncertainties noted above, the WPC forecast charts
are based on the latest global model consensus but with higher
percentages from the ensemble means beginning on Day 5 Saturday.


...Weather/Hazards Highlights...

It generally remains the case that an eastern Canadian closed
upper-level low/trough will help support longwave troughing down
over the eastern U.S. through late week. Impulses will lead to the
progression of a wavy frontal systems and showers/thunderstorms
through the East. System progression to the Atlantic will spawn
moderate coastal cyclogenesis with wrapping moisture/rains lifting
up/off the East Coast as a maritime threat. Troughing breaks down
by the weekend as low amplitude ridging builds in from the west.

Upstream, an eastern Pacific closed low is slated, still with much
uncertainty, to advance inland mid-late week to focus organized
light to moderate precipitation most likely across portions of the
northern Great Basin, Pacific Northwest, and northern Rockies.
Surface lows and frontal boundaries will form downstream, bringing
weekend shower/thunderstorm chances broadly from the central U.S.
to the Midwest/Great Lakes/East. Farther upstream system energies
with some showers will subsequently work inland into the West and
downstream over the lower 48 with uncertain timing in embedded
shortwaves and occasional amplifictions within a generally zonal
pattern aloft.

Temperatures for the eastern U.S. will be below normal into late
week before moderating with upper trough ejection to the Atlantic.
Meanwhile, an eastward shifting upper ridge will gradually spread
well above normal temperatures across the Central to East-Central
U.S. that may produce several summertime high temperature records.


Kong/Schichtel


Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids,
quantitative precipitation forecast, excessive rainfall outlook,
winter weather outlook probabilities, heat indices and Key
Messages are at:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ero
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ovw