Weather Prediction Center

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
304 PM EDT Wed Mar 25 2026

Valid 00Z Thu Mar 26 2026 - 00Z Sat Mar 28 2026

...Record-breaking heat continues to expand from the Southwest to the
Plains, Midwest, and Southeast...

...Wintry precipitation expected across the northern tier today through
Thursday...

...Severe thunderstorms likely across the Mid-Mississippi and Ohio Valleys
on Thursday...

Another record-breaking heat wave is underway, as a strong upper-level
ridge remains situated over the Southwest. The ridge will shift east over
the next couple of days, continuing to spread into the Plains today,
Midwest on Thursday, and Southeast on Friday. Peak heat intensity is
expected today into Thursday as temperatures reach 25-35 degrees above
seasonable average. High temperatures in the 90s are expected from the
Central/Southern Plains to the Mid-Mississippi Valley. Intense heat will
begin to subside on Friday as the upper-level ridge weakens, although high
temperatures near 90 degrees will remain possible in the Southeast.
Numerous temperature records are expected to be tied or broken during this
heat wave.

A reprieve from the heat will arrive gradually from the north as a strong
cold front pushes across the country tonight through Friday. Initially, an
upper-level trough with an associated Pacific frontal system will move in,
which will round the top of the ridge positioned over the Southwest and
dig into the north-central and northeastern U.S. on Thursday and Friday. A
stationary frontal boundary will continue to be in place across the
northern tier, and the progressive upper-level wave will drive the front
south across the central and eastern U.S. as a strong cold front. Much
colder air will arrive in the wake of the front, with well below average
temperatures expected for much of the central and eastern U.S. Friday into
Saturday. This frontal boundary will be accompanied by wintry
precipitation chances across the northern tier today through early
Thursday, with the potential for several inches of snow in the Cascades
and northern Rockies.

Precipitation chances will also expand southward on Thursday, with showers
and thunderstorms expected from the central Plains to the Mid-Atlantic.
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across the Mid-Mississippi and
Ohio Valleys on Thursday afternoon and evening. Severe storms are expected
to bring a threat of very large hail (2+ inches in diameter), severe wind
gusts (some 70+ mph) and a few strong tornadoes. Precipitation chances
will linger in the Mid-Atlantic on Friday, with the front remaining mostly
dry as it moves across the South and Southeast. In addition to
precipitation chances, the frontal boundary will be accompanied by strong
winds, which will create Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions
across the northern/central Rockies and High Plains today and
central/southern Rockies and Plains Thursday.


Blanco-Alcala/Dolan


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 PM EDT Wed Mar 25 2026

Valid 12Z Sat Mar 28 2026 - 12Z Wed Apr 01 2026


...Overview...

A mid-level low centered over the Gulf of Alaska will finally
dislodge from its position and dig into the West Coast of the CONUS
early next week. This will bring cooler temperatures to a region
that has experienced widespread above average to record breaking
temperatures over the past week or so as well as increasingly
widespread precipitation chances. As a result of the arrival of a
West Coast trough, the downstream ridge will shift into the Central
and Eastern U.S., spreading mild temperatures into those areas. A
swath of showers and thunderstorms as well as wintry precipitation
further north is expected early to mid-week across the
Midwest/Great Lakes into the Northeast.


...Guidance/Predictability Assessment...

Both deterministic and ensemble guidance is well clustered with a
similar depiction of the overall pattern particularly through the
first part of the period this upcoming weekend. The upper-flow will
become more quasi-zonal following a more amplified ridge over the
western U.S. through this week. A more active pattern begins to set
up into early next week as mean upper-ridging begins to shift from
over the Southwest to the south-central and then Southeast U.S.
and as an upper-trough upstream over the northeastern Pacific
begins to drop southward towards the West Coast. This will lead to
southwesterly flow across much of the country with both an active
northern stream and potential southern stream perturbations leading
to increasing uncertainty in the forecast details downstream
across the central to eastern U.S. Deterministic guidance begins to
diverge particularly with the handling of an expected wavy frontal
boundary across the Plains/Midwest/Northeast and thus the
northward extent of an expanding warm sector into mid-next week.
Some of the deterministic guidance is further north especially with
eastward extent, while the GFS remains further north to the west
compared to ECMWF/ECMWF AIFS and CMC. Meanwhile, the means offer an
expected more muted compromise which serves as a good baseline,
and with precipitation coverage generally reflected well in the NBM
given the uncertainty. Additional uncertainty is tied to how quick
and far the upper-trough will dig along the West Coast, with the
GFS currently the fastest. However, at least through the current
forecast period, the coverage and amounts of precipitation across
the western U.S. is reasonably well agreed upon.

The updated WPC forecast used a roughly equal blend of the
GFS/ECMWF/ECMWF AIFS through the early part of the period with a
small contribution from the ECens/GEFS means while guidance was
more closely clustered. The means are initially increased to 35%
and then 55% of the blend in the mid- to late period as the
deterministic guidance begins to diverge/differ more from the more
muted ensemble means. The ECMWF AIFS is used to provide additional
details as it provides some similarity to the CMC within the
envelope of the other guidance while avoiding portions of the CMC
forecast that were more of an outlier compared to the other
guidance.


...Weather/Hazards Highlights...

A quasi-zonal mid-to-upper level flow pattern will settle in this
weekend into next week with upper-ridging shifting from the
Southwest to south-central and then Southeast U.S. High and low
temperatures between 20-30 degrees above average may tie or break
numerous records across the aforementioned areas, particularly from
the western to central U.S. These warm temperatures along with
gusty downsloping winds may lead to fire weather concerns,
especailly across portions of the central High Plains into the
Plains Saturday. Temperatures will begin to moderate a bit in the
West beneath the influence of an incoming East Pacific trough. This
trough will bring more low elevation rain and mountainous snow to
the West Coast and eventually Intermountain West early to mid-next
week, with amounts and coverage trending upward through the period.
Moderate to locally heavy amounts are becoming more likely along
coastal areas of southern Oregon into northern California as well
as inland through the Sierra especially on Wednesday. Some
additional scattered Monsoon-like showers and thunderstorms will
also be possible across portions of the Southwest late this weekend
into early next week.

Embedded impulses along a quasi-stationary frontal boundary from
the Plains to Midwest to Northeast will bring increasing
precipitation chances early to mid-next week. Uncertainty remains
as to the northward extent of the frontal boundary but this will
likely lead to another axis of moderate to heavy rainfall between
the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes. In addition, some wintry
precipitation is also looking more likely north of the boundary
across the Upper Great Lakes to Interior Northeast/New England mid-
week.

Putnam/Kebede


Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids,
quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF), excessive rainfall
outlook (ERO), winter weather outlook (WWO) probabilities, heat
indices, and Key Messages can be accessed from:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ero
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ovw

Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
321 AM EDT Wed Mar 25 2026

Valid 00Z Thu 26 Mar 2026 - 00Z Thu 02 Apr 2026

The guidance broadly advertises the pattern aloft to remain
troughy over the main Hawaiian Islands over the next week, with
the upper level trough wavering in strength over time, strongest
on Friday and Saturday. While mid- level ridging makes some
strides towards rebuilding over the Papahanaumokuakea Marine
National Monument, it fades mid next week. This ridging remains
just out of reach for the main islands.

Rainfall amounts and rain chances decrease through Thursday,
returning Hawai'i towards their more typical northeast trade
wind/upslope shower regime briefly. There is some uptick in
rainfall intensity from Friday into Saturday across the central
and eastern main islands as the upper trough strengthens slightly
and a secondary boundary sweeps around the southwest side of a low
pressure area lurking northeast of Hawai'i. Early next week,
rainfall intensity should lessen somewhat as the trades become
more east- northeasterly and the cyclone moves farther afield.
Mid next week, another slight uptick in amounts is advertised by
the guidance, likely due to the proximity of an upper level low
moving across the main islands which may lead to the development
of an easterly wave/trough not far from Hawai'i.

Roth

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
321 PM EDT Wed Mar 25 2026
Day 1
Valid 16Z Wed Mar 25 2026 - 12Z Thu Mar 26 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Hurley

Day 1 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94epoints.txt

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
321 PM EDT Wed Mar 25 2026
Day 2
Valid 12Z Thu Mar 26 2026 - 12Z Fri Mar 27 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF
THE MIDWEST AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY...

2100 UTC update...

The 1200 UTC model suite continues to show enhancing convection
late Thursday afternoon, continuing Thursday night into early
Friday morning, along and ahead of the strong cold front sinking
south from the Lower Lakes into the Mid-Atlantic/OH Valley/Mid MS
Valley by 1200 UTC Friday. Favorable upper difluence in the right
entrance region of the upper jet, in an axis of much above average
PW values, 2 to 3+ standard deviations above the mean, along and
ahead of this front, will support potential for widespread moderate
to heavy precip totals along and ahead of the front. Changes to the
previous marginal risk were to expand it northeastward into the
Southern Tier of NY State/northern PA where FFG values are lower.
Otherwise, models continue to emphasize areas between the Lower
Lakes and the OH River for the heaviest totals day 2, but the lower
FFG values farther northeast into the Southern Tier of NY
State/northern PA, warrant the marginal risk expansion. Overall,
the marginal risk area fits well where the HREF and RRFS
probabilities for 3 hour precip exceeding 3 hour FFG are the
highest. These probabilities are not uniform along and ahead of the
front, but do show potential for isolated runoff issues, with areas
of probabilities in the 20-40% range.

Oravec


Previous discussion:

Only minor tweaks were needed for the new Day 2 forecast this
morning. The latest guidance, including some of the longer-range
CAMs, suggests that there is a greater chance for training showers
and thunderstorms Thursday evening and Thursday night across
portions of northern Indiana and Ohio. A series of waves of showers
and storms will race eastward along the interface of a very strong
southward-moving cold front. A zonal upper level jet streak across
Lake Superior will max out around 150 kt 00Z Friday. Meanwhile
moisture advection will allow PWATs to creep above 1.25 inches and
dew points to spike into the 60s. Instability in the longer-range
guidance has also nudged higher, into the 1,000 to 1,500 J/kg range
of MUCAPE. While organized convection appears likely given
favorable instability and shear profiles, the fast motion of the
storms will remain the primary factor limiting the flash flooding
threat. Thus, as regards flooding potential, with somewhat better
environmental parameters than 24 hours ago but still dry soils in
most areas, especially into Illinois, the area remains under a
solid Marginal Risk. The greatest threat of isolated instances of
flash flooding remains into the urban centers. Since most of the
showers and storms will be occurring overnight Thursday night in
the Marginal Risk area, any flooding will pose a heightened danger
due to lack of visibility.

Wegman

Day 2 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98epoints.txt

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
321 PM EDT Wed Mar 25 2026
Day 3
Valid 12Z Fri Mar 27 2026 - 12Z Sat Mar 28 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Oravec

Day 3 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/99epoints.txt

Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 PM EDT Wed Mar 25 2026


A quasi-zonal mid-to-upper level flow pattern will settle in this
weekend into next week with upper-ridging shifting from the
Southwest to south-central and then Southeast U.S. High and low
temperatures between 20-30 degrees above average may tie or break
numerous records across the aforementioned areas, particularly from
the western to central U.S. These warm temperatures along with
gusty downsloping winds may lead to fire weather concerns,
especailly across portions of the central High Plains into the
Plains Saturday. Temperatures will begin to moderate a bit in the
West beneath the influence of an incoming East Pacific trough. This
trough will bring more low elevation rain and mountainous snow to
the West Coast and eventually Intermountain West early to mid-next
week, with amounts and coverage trending upward through the period.
Moderate to locally heavy amounts are becoming more likely along
coastal areas of southern Oregon into northern California as well
as inland through the Sierra especially on Wednesday. Some
additional scattered Monsoon-like showers and thunderstorms will
also be possible across portions of the Southwest late this weekend
into early next week.

Embedded impulses along a quasi-stationary frontal boundary from
the Plains to Midwest to Northeast will bring increasing
precipitation chances early to mid-next week. Uncertainty remains
as to the northward extent of the frontal boundary but this will
likely lead to another axis of moderate to heavy rainfall between
the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes. In addition, some wintry
precipitation is also looking more likely north of the boundary
across the Upper Great Lakes to Interior Northeast/New England mid-
week.

Putnam/Kebede

Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 PM EDT Wed Mar 25 2026


A quasi-zonal mid-to-upper level flow pattern will settle in this
weekend into next week with upper-ridging shifting from the
Southwest to south-central and then Southeast U.S. High and low
temperatures between 20-30 degrees above average may tie or break
numerous records across the aforementioned areas, particularly from
the western to central U.S. These warm temperatures along with
gusty downsloping winds may lead to fire weather concerns,
especailly across portions of the central High Plains into the
Plains Saturday. Temperatures will begin to moderate a bit in the
West beneath the influence of an incoming East Pacific trough. This
trough will bring more low elevation rain and mountainous snow to
the West Coast and eventually Intermountain West early to mid-next
week, with amounts and coverage trending upward through the period.
Moderate to locally heavy amounts are becoming more likely along
coastal areas of southern Oregon into northern California as well
as inland through the Sierra especially on Wednesday. Some
additional scattered Monsoon-like showers and thunderstorms will
also be possible across portions of the Southwest late this weekend
into early next week.

Embedded impulses along a quasi-stationary frontal boundary from
the Plains to Midwest to Northeast will bring increasing
precipitation chances early to mid-next week. Uncertainty remains
as to the northward extent of the frontal boundary but this will
likely lead to another axis of moderate to heavy rainfall between
the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes. In addition, some wintry
precipitation is also looking more likely north of the boundary
across the Upper Great Lakes to Interior Northeast/New England mid-
week.

Putnam/Kebede

Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
202 PM EDT Wed Mar 25 2026

Valid 00Z Thu Mar 26 2026 - 00Z Sun Mar 29 2026

...Washington Cascades to Northern Rockies...
Day 1...

Shortwave trough and associated cold front crosses the Cascades by
this evening with snow rates declining as snow levels fall from
3000ft to 1000ft. Day 1 snow probs for >4" are generally 30-60%
above about 3500ft.

Additional snow shifts east tonight through Thursday over the
Lewis Range in Glacier NP, the Bitterroots, Red Lodge portion of
the northern Absarokas in MT and the Bighorns. Day 1 snow probs are
30-50% across these areas of terrain.


...Northern Maine...
Day 1...

Weak low pressure over northern MI this afternoon strengthens as it
shifts across Maine on Thursday. WAA ahead of the low brings snow
to Maine late tonight/Thursday morning. Day 1 snow probs for >4"
are limited to far northern NH and the highest elevations and
northern border of Maine and generally 20-40%.


...Northern Plains and Upper Midwest...
Days 1 and 3...

A tight baroclinic zone develops tonight in zonal flow as low
pressure over the central Plains is met by strong high pressure
shifting from the Canadian Prairies. A wintry mix with generally
light rates develops along this boundary. Day 1 ice probs for
>0.01" ice are 30-60% over eastern ND and across northern WI to
Upper MI, mainly falling late tonight through Thursday morning.
Little snow accum is expected.

High pressure shifting from the northern Plains to the Midwest
Friday through Saturday promotes some LES to develop off Lake
Superior on NW flow. Day 3 snow probs for >4" are 30-50% over the
eastern U.P.


The chances for significant icing across the CONUS is less than
10%.


Jackson

Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 PM EDT Wed Mar 25 2026

Valid 12Z Sat Mar 28 2026 - 12Z Wed Apr 01 2026


...Overview...

A mid-level low centered over the Gulf of Alaska will finally
dislodge from its position and dig into the West Coast of the CONUS
early next week. This will bring cooler temperatures to a region
that has experienced widespread above average to record breaking
temperatures over the past week or so as well as increasingly
widespread precipitation chances. As a result of the arrival of a
West Coast trough, the downstream ridge will shift into the Central
and Eastern U.S., spreading mild temperatures into those areas. A
swath of showers and thunderstorms as well as wintry precipitation
further north is expected early to mid-week across the
Midwest/Great Lakes into the Northeast.


...Guidance/Predictability Assessment...

Both deterministic and ensemble guidance is well clustered with a
similar depiction of the overall pattern particularly through the
first part of the period this upcoming weekend. The upper-flow will
become more quasi-zonal following a more amplified ridge over the
western U.S. through this week. A more active pattern begins to set
up into early next week as mean upper-ridging begins to shift from
over the Southwest to the south-central and then Southeast U.S.
and as an upper-trough upstream over the northeastern Pacific
begins to drop southward towards the West Coast. This will lead to
southwesterly flow across much of the country with both an active
northern stream and potential southern stream perturbations leading
to increasing uncertainty in the forecast details downstream
across the central to eastern U.S. Deterministic guidance begins to
diverge particularly with the handling of an expected wavy frontal
boundary across the Plains/Midwest/Northeast and thus the
northward extent of an expanding warm sector into mid-next week.
Some of the deterministic guidance is further north especially with
eastward extent, while the GFS remains further north to the west
compared to ECMWF/ECMWF AIFS and CMC. Meanwhile, the means offer an
expected more muted compromise which serves as a good baseline,
and with precipitation coverage generally reflected well in the NBM
given the uncertainty. Additional uncertainty is tied to how quick
and far the upper-trough will dig along the West Coast, with the
GFS currently the fastest. However, at least through the current
forecast period, the coverage and amounts of precipitation across
the western U.S. is reasonably well agreed upon.

The updated WPC forecast used a roughly equal blend of the
GFS/ECMWF/ECMWF AIFS through the early part of the period with a
small contribution from the ECens/GEFS means while guidance was
more closely clustered. The means are initially increased to 35%
and then 55% of the blend in the mid- to late period as the
deterministic guidance begins to diverge/differ more from the more
muted ensemble means. The ECMWF AIFS is used to provide additional
details as it provides some similarity to the CMC within the
envelope of the other guidance while avoiding portions of the CMC
forecast that were more of an outlier compared to the other
guidance.


...Weather/Hazards Highlights...

A quasi-zonal mid-to-upper level flow pattern will settle in this
weekend into next week with upper-ridging shifting from the
Southwest to south-central and then Southeast U.S. High and low
temperatures between 20-30 degrees above average may tie or break
numerous records across the aforementioned areas, particularly from
the western to central U.S. These warm temperatures along with
gusty downsloping winds may lead to fire weather concerns,
especailly across portions of the central High Plains into the
Plains Saturday. Temperatures will begin to moderate a bit in the
West beneath the influence of an incoming East Pacific trough. This
trough will bring more low elevation rain and mountainous snow to
the West Coast and eventually Intermountain West early to mid-next
week, with amounts and coverage trending upward through the period.
Moderate to locally heavy amounts are becoming more likely along
coastal areas of southern Oregon into northern California as well
as inland through the Sierra especially on Wednesday. Some
additional scattered Monsoon-like showers and thunderstorms will
also be possible across portions of the Southwest late this weekend
into early next week.

Embedded impulses along a quasi-stationary frontal boundary from
the Plains to Midwest to Northeast will bring increasing
precipitation chances early to mid-next week. Uncertainty remains
as to the northward extent of the frontal boundary but this will
likely lead to another axis of moderate to heavy rainfall between
the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes. In addition, some wintry
precipitation is also looking more likely north of the boundary
across the Upper Great Lakes to Interior Northeast/New England mid-
week.

Putnam/Kebede


Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids,
quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF), excessive rainfall
outlook (ERO), winter weather outlook (WWO) probabilities, heat
indices, and Key Messages can be accessed from:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ero
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ovw