Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
254 PM EST Sat Feb 7 2026

Valid 12Z Tue Feb 10 2026 - 12Z Sat Feb 14 2026


...Overview...

An initial upper low over northern Mexico as the period begins
Tuesday will move into the southern Plains and weaken as it gets
shunted off to to the Southeast. This should bring some
precipitation across the south-central U.S. to Ohio Valley and
Southeast through Wednesday. Behind this, another trough looks to
dive down the West Coast with additional energy entering the
Southwest late week allowing for renewed moisture and expansion of
precipitation across parts of the central to eastern states next
weekend. Northern stream energy is forecast to bring additional
rounds of precipitation into the Northwest and Intermountain West
late week.


...Guidance/Predictability Assessment...

Model guidance continues to show good large scale agreement with
the initial low over northern Mexico as it shifts eastward,
weakens, and becomes absorbed by the larger scale flow. There
remain some uncertainties in the details which will impact
sensible weather and associated precipitation coverage, but we have
seen better agreement evolve with the 12z guidance. It is now
clear that the southern and northern stream energy will remain
separate Tuesday into Wednesday, which should allow for a warmer
solution and less of a threat of winter impacts with the southern
stream system.

The greatest source of uncertainty continues to be with the west
coast troughing by mid to late week and how/when that energy moves
eastward across the country. Today's model trend was for the
GFS/ECMWF to trend closer to the AI model suite (EC
AIFS/AIGFS/AIGEFS) with a slower evolution of this west coast
trough. This delays the stronger system that should eventually move
across the country Friday into next weekend. While we can not say
confidence is high that this trend will persist, we will note that
most of the AI model suite has been in this camp for several runs.
This seemingly adds a bit more confidence to the 12z GFS/EC/CMC
trend than an abrupt shift like this normally would. Thus tend to
think we will see the overall ensemble data/NBM evolve in this
direction. While confidence may be increasing in this slower
solution, there remains considerable uncertainty regarding the
details of how the trough/low evolves and the latitude it tracks.

In between these two systems there remains the potential for a
weaker system to move from the Plains into the Southeast Thursday
and Friday within the mid-level northwesterly flow. Quite a bit of
uncertainty with this feature related to the depth of the eastern
U.S. trough and strength of the shortwave energy diving southeast.
The 12z EC/CMC keep a signal for sensible weather impacts, but the
GFS and AI guidance generally keep things dry.


...Weather/Hazards Highlights...

The aforementioned northern stream energy will bring some light
snow accumulations to portions of the Northeast Tuesday night into
Wednesday. Farther south, light to moderate rain is forecast from
the OH/TN valley into the Southeast. Given the trend for more
separation between streams, wintry weather impacts appear less
likely with this feature, although a small corridor of mixed
precipitation is still possible along the northern edge of the
precipitation shield.

The trough/closed low moving into CA will bring rain and mountain
snow to the state Tuesday into Wednesday, spreading into the Great
Basin by Wednesday. This feature has trended stronger today, and
thus rainfall and high elevation snow amount potential has
increased. While the AI guidance has shown this for a few model
cycles now, the physical models are just now trending in that
direction. While still not expecting major rain or snow totals,
there is the potential for upwards of 1-2" of rain across the
coastal ranges of southern CA. We will not introduce any Marginal
risk yet, but if models continue to trend then can not rule out a
localized flood risk and will continue to monitor.

It seems like this feature has a pretty good chance of being our
next large impactful system that tracks eastward across the
country Friday into next weekend. As mentioned above, we have seen
some model convergence regarding this evolution, although there
remains considerable uncertainty regarding the details of how the
trough/low evolves and the latitude it tracks. These differences
will play a major role in sensible weather impacts from this
system. So while heavy rain in the warm sector and wintry precip to
the north of the system are all probable it is too early to give
much insight regarding those details.

Another front may bring increasing precipitation chances to the
pacific Northwest Friday into the weekend as well. Lots of model
spread with these details though, and would expect to see
significant forecast changes with regards to both the timing ans
strength of this system over the coming days.

Not seeing much of a signal for hazardous temperatures during this
period, with the main story being above normal temperatures from
the Plains into the Southeast and near normal temperatures from
the Mid-Atlantic into the Northeast.


Chenard/Santorelli


Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids,
quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF), excessive rainfall
outlook (ERO), winter weather outlook (WWO) probabilities, heat
indices, and Key Messages can be accessed from:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ero
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ovw

Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
258 PM EST Sun Feb 8 2026

Valid 12Z Wed Feb 11 2026 - 12Z Sun Feb 15 2026


...Overview...

Troughing diving down the West Coast as the period begins
Wednesday will eventually send southern stream energy into the
Southwest around Friday. This should bring an expanding area of
precipitation, potentially moderate to locally heavy, to the south-
central U.S. by this weekend. This system will traverse the
southern half of the nation helping to eventually spread
precipitation into the East with uncertain wintry impacts possible
on the north side. A second trough/upper low will amplify and drop
south along the West Coast by next weekend as well.


...Guidance/Predictability Assessment...

The greatest source of uncertainty continues to be with the west
coast troughing by mid to late week and how/when that energy moves
eastward across the country. There remains a lot of uncertainty
with the timing/strength of this feature and how much northern
stream interaction there is. The 06z GFS/GEFS seemed to be
outliers with a quicker and farther north solution, however their
12z runs have come more in line with the model consensus. At this
point confidence is increasing that there will be a significant
storm moving across the country by this coming weekend, however
the details remain uncertain.

All you have to do is look at the jump between the 00z and 12z
ECMWF to understand the uncertainty that still exists. The 00z
depicted a slower suppressed system, with the 12z a bit
quicker/stronger and more phased with the northern stream.
Generally subtle differences in the 500mb forecast resulted in a
major shift in the strength/track of the low and sensible weather
impacts. The 00z EC ensemble plots indicated much above normal
spread for the lead time centered around the strength/depth of the
low moving into CA and northern MX early Fri, which is the feature
that then tracks across the country. The AIFS has generally been
the most consistent with this storm, although even it has shown
some run to run variability. It seems likely that additional model
fluctuations will occur, with the 00z and 12z ECMWF seemingly
representing the slow/south and fast/north bookends of plausible
outcomes. At this point the most probable outcome is likely in
between these two more extreme solutions, with the 12z AIFS
currently in a pretty good middle ground when accounting for multi
cycle model fluctuations. Will just need to continue to monitor
trends over the coming days, as additional changes to the forecast
are likely.


...Weather/Hazards Highlights...

Precipitation will be ongoing across California into the central
Great Basin on Wednesday, with some moderate to locally heavy
rainfall along the coast and modest snows in the Sierra. Recent
runs of the AIFS has shown a signal for heavy rainfall across the
sensitive terrain of southern CA Tuesday night into Wednesday
morning. This has been a pretty reliable model for systems moving
into CA this winter, and it would indicate a low end flood risk as
this rain moves across. Will hold off on any Marginal risk give
continued model spread on these details, but will continue to
monitor.

As this system tracks inland precipitation is likely to blossom
and quickly expand across the central U.S. and eventually into the
East. Details regarding how the trough/low evolves are still highly
uncertain and these differences will play a major role in sensible
weather impacts from this system. That said, confidence is
increasing that this system will result in an axis of heavy
rainfall by this weekend. At least some flash flood potential could
exist across portions of the Southern Plains into the lower MS
Valley, although the exact axis remains unclear.

With the system initially displaced from the northern stream there
is not a lot of cold air to work with, so wintry impacts currently
appear limited initially. By the time the low gets into the Mid-
Atlantic and Northeast some marginally colder air could allow for
wintry weather impacts to the north of the low track, although
these details remain highly uncertain. Overall not a ton of cold
air to work, so things would need to come together just right to
get significant winter impacts. This is certainly a possibility
though, especially from the northern Mid-Atlantic into the
Northeast, so will continue to monitor.

The next trough off the West will bring increasing precipitation
chances to the Pacific Northwest and California Friday and through
the weekend, with heavy precipitation possible again for
particularly the northern California coast and into the Sierra.


Chenard/Santorelli


Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids,
quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF), excessive rainfall
outlook (ERO), winter weather outlook (WWO) probabilities, heat
indices, and Key Messages can be accessed from:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ero
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ovw

Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
233 PM EST Mon Feb 9 2026

Valid 12Z Thu Feb 12 2026 - 12Z Mon Feb 16 2026


...Overview...

A trough sinking south along the West Coast will send energy into
the Southwest with an expanding area of modest precipitation, with
potential for locally moderate to heavy amounts by the weekend. The
southern stream will be more active into next week as this energy
tracks across the southern tier ushering precipitation into the
East with potential for uncertain wintry impacts on the northern
periphery of this system. A secondary trough/closed low feature is
expected to drop south along the West Coast late in the period
which will encourage ridging across the central part of the
country.


...Guidance/Predictability Assessment...

The latest suite of guidance depicts an active southern stream
through the extended period and had good clustering among the
global guidance and means. The greatest uncertainty persists with
the initial shortwave as it tracks through the Southwest on Friday
in terms of intensity/strength and timing and to what degree does
the northern stream interacts the southern stream.

Of late, the GFS has been a bit weaker, faster, and farther south
with the feature and surface low as it moves through the Southeast
this weekend. It also has been notably drier with QPF. The CMC and
EC- AIFS are slower, with the ECMWF a bit to the north. The
ensemble means were a nice middle ground to the still variable
deterministic solutions. The large scale pattern transitions to
being more amplified with the next trough that develops off of the
West Coast with ridging present over the CONUS. WPC used a multi-
model approach leaning to ensemble means for this system to help
temper some of the detail differences.


...Weather/Hazards Highlights...

With the system tracking through the Southwest precipitation is
expected to develop and spread quickly into the south-central
states by Saturday and reaching the East by Sunday. Consensus is
growing for this system to bring beneficial moisture to a vast
portion of the South and parts of the East with potential for
moderate to heavy rain footprint for the South Plains into the
Mississippi Valley this weekend and possibly for the Southeast
early next week. Confidence right now on wintry impacts is very
low, but the potential certainly exists and will need to be
monitored.

The next trough off the West will have a greater influx of Pacific
moisture thus bringing increased precipitation potential to the
Pacific Northwest and California Friday and through the weekend,
with heavy precipitation possible again for particularly the
northern California coast and into the Sierra.

Nothing hazardous in terms of temperatures expected this period.
Temps look to be well above normal at times for the central U.S.,
especially later in the period as upper ridging builds over the
region. Daytime highs could be 20+ degrees above normal in spots
across the north-central Plains. Both the East and West coast
states should be near or within a few degrees of normal.


Campbell


Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids,
quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF), excessive rainfall
outlook (ERO), winter weather outlook (WWO) probabilities, heat
indices, and Key Messages can be accessed from:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ero
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ovw

Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
300 PM EST Tue Feb 10 2026

Valid 12Z Fri Feb 13 2026 - 12Z Tue Feb 17 2026


...Overview...

A strong upper trough/low will be moving into the Southwest Friday
into Saturday with an expanding area of enhancing precipitation.
The southern stream will be quite active into next week as this
energy tracks across the southern tier ushering lead return flow
and an emerging threat for heavy precipitation to spread into the
East along with potential for uncertain wintry impacts on the
northern periphery of this system. A complicated but deepening
upper trough/closed low is meanwhile expected to drop south along
the West Coast with renewed enhanced precipitation potential as
waves of energy move inland. In between, upper ridging will build
over the Central U.S. bringing well above normal temperatures.

...Guidance/Predictability Assessment...

Guidance shows good agreement on an active and amplified upcoming
medium range period, but still a lot of uncertainty in the smaller
scale but important details. The most impactful area of uncertainty
continues to be with a southern stream shortwave into the
Southwest on Friday and then to what degree this system phases with
the northern stream as it moves across the southern half of the
country and off the East Coast early next week. The GFS continues
to be less phased and less progressive, with the ECMWF slightly
more
progressive and the Canadian more stream phased. There has been an
overall 00/06/12 UTC guidance cycle trend for increased system
suppression and a blend of the GFS/GEFS mean and ECMWF/ECMWF
ensemble mean seems to provide a solid forecast base. However,
ensemble clusters still show some support for all these camps.

Behind this, the large scale pattern transitions to being more
amplified with the next trough that develops off of the West Coast
with ridging present downstream over the CONUS. There is reasonable
agreement on the evolution of this trough, but lots of questions
with various pieces of energy which dig and then work into the
West. The aforementioned favored guidance blend seems to address.

...Weather/Hazards Highlights...

With the system tracking from the Southwest to the southern U.S.,
widespread precipitation is expected to develop and spread quickly
into the south-central states Friday and Saturday, reaching the
East by Sunday. There is growing consensus for the potential for
moderate to heavy rainfall for parts of the southern Plains into
the Mississippi Valley Friday and Saturday. While this rainfall
should be mostly beneficial, moisture anomalies are well above
normal and there is potential for some training along the frontal
boundary, so marginal risks were added to the Day 4/Friday and Day
5/Saturday Excessive Rainfall Outlooks. In addition and given
growing signature, a Slight Risk area was also introduced, centered
on Valentine's Day. As the main and secondary surfaces low move
through the Southeast and lifts up and off the East Coast, there
is potential an organized wintry precipitation threat on the north
side of the low from parts of the Mid-Atlantic to the Northeast.
There is less dammed cold air than during the recent Arctic blast,
but the less progressive southern stream system approach would
allow lingering dammed air to tap. Even so, confidence remains low
on potential impact specifics given system and phasing uncertainty.

The next trough off the West will have a greater influx of Pacific
moisture thus bringing increased precipitation potential to the
Pacific Northwest and down through southern California from Friday
and especially into the weekend. Heavy precipitation is possible
for particularly the California coast and into the snowy Sierra.
Precipitation will spread inland across parts of the Intermountain
West with time as well to include some terrain enhanced snows.

Nothing hazardous in terms of temperatures expected this period.
Temps look to be well above normal at times for the central U.S.,
especially later in the period as upper ridging builds over the
region. Daytime highs could be 20+ degrees above normal in spots
across the north-central Plains. Both the East and West coast
states should be near or within a few degrees of normal, though the
West may trend cooler as the trough begins to move inland early
next week.


Santorelli/Schichtel


Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids,
quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF), excessive rainfall
outlook (ERO), winter weather outlook (WWO) probabilities, heat
indices, and Key Messages can be accessed from:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ero
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ovw

Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
310 PM EST Wed Feb 11 2026

Valid 12Z Sat Feb 14 2026 - 12Z Wed Feb 18 2026


...Weekend South-Central to East/Southeast U.S. Heavy Rainfall
Threat with some northern periphery wintry component to monitor...

...Early next week moderate-heavy precipitation into the West...



...Overview...

It mainly remains the case that the southern stream will be quite
active this weekend and into early next week as a strong shortwave
tracks across the southern tier with an expanding area of enhanced
precipitation across the south-central U.S. to the East Coast.
There is a growing signal for Moderate to locally heavy rainfall
along with still some potential for wintry precipitation on the
north side of the precip shield for parts of the Mid-Atlantic, with
latest guidance trends now more offshore the Northeast. Meanwhile,
a deepening upper trough/closed low will drop south along the West
Coast with renewed and enhanced precipitation potential for much
of the West as waves of energy move inland. This eventually may
spin up a deep surface low in/around the northern Plains with
possible winter weather. In between, upper ridging builds the
Central to Midwest to favor well above normal temperatures.

...Guidance/Predictability Assessment...

Guidance continues to show larger scale flow evolution agreement
in an active upcoming medium range period, but still with some
uncertainty in the important details as energetic features work
through split stream flows over North America. The WPC favored
guidance blend was based more heavily on deterministic model
guidance this weekend before blending in some ensemble means.

The major source of uncertainty has been with a southern tier
shortwave, especially as it moves into the Southeast and surface
lows lift out into the Atlantic. The placement and evolution of
these are directly related to how much and how quickly any phasing
may occur with this and northern stream energy. However, latest 12
UTC models have come into better agreement finally, bolstering
forecast confidence to a degree as it fits well with our blend.

After this, troughing digs down the West Coast with a lot of
uncertainty on the timing and strength of individual waves of
energy moving inland. Consensus shows the main trough axis moving
into the West Coast around Tuesday with a leading shortwave likely
to spin up a deepening cyclone in/around the Northern Plains
through next midweek.

...Weather/Hazards Highlights...

With the system tracking from the Southwest to the southern U.S.,
widespread precipitation is expected to develop and spread quickly
into the south-central states through Saturday, reaching the East
by Sunday. There is growing consensus for the potential for
moderate to heavy rainfall for parts of the southern Plains into
the Mississippi Valley and while this rainfall should be mostly
beneficial, moisture anomalies are well above normal and there is
potential for some training along the frontal boundary. As such, a
broad marginal risk, with an embedded slight risk, continues on the
Day 4/Saturday ERO centered across the lower Mississippi Valley.
As the system moves through the East on sunday, moderate to heavy
rainfall is increasingly likely along the cold front and so a broad
marginal risk is in place across much of the Southeast. There is
also still some potential for an organized wintry precipitation
threat on the north side of the low for parts of the Mid-Atlantic,
with latest guidance trends more offshore the Northeast with less
stream phasing. There is lingering uncertainty associated with
this, and also considering a lack of overall cold air damming.

The next trough off the West will have a greater influx of Pacific
moisture thus bringing increased precipitation potential to the
Pacific Northwest and down through southern California into the
weekend. Heavy rainfall is possible along much of the California
coast, especially Sunday and beyond with heavy snow in the Sierra.
Precipitation will also spread inland across parts of the
Intermountain West with time as well to include some terrain
enhanced snows and rain/snow mix even down into the valleys of some
areas. Precipitation will spread into the northern Plains and
Upper Midwest next Tuesday into Wednesday associated with a
developing surface low. This likely falls in the form of snow but
impacts remain highly uncertain.

Nothing hazardous in terms of temperatures expected this period.
Temps look to be well above normal at times for the central U.S.,
especially later in the period as upper ridging builds over the
region. Daytime highs could be 20+ degrees above normal in spots
across the north-central Plains and eventually into the Midwest.
Temperatures across the West should trend cooler underneath upper
troughing, but warmer in the East as the central U.S. upper ridge
progresses into the region.


Santorelli/Schichtel


Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids,
quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF), excessive rainfall
outlook (ERO), winter weather outlook (WWO) probabilities, heat
indices, and Key Messages can be accessed from:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ero
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ovw