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WPC Medium Range Archive
Medium Range Products Valid On:
10/03/2025
(Day 7 PMDEPD: Valid 09/29/2025 to 10/03/2025)
Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 451 PM EDT Fri Sep 26 2025 Valid 12Z Mon Sep 29 2025 - 12Z Fri Oct 03 2025 ...Potential Tropical Cyclone 9 may bring tropical impacts to the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic next week... ...Overview... The upper level pattern will feature mean troughing over the West, low pressure over the Southeast, and narrow ridging in between. This pattern will support enhanced precipitation chances in the West and Southeast, with chances for heavy rain that could lead to flash flooding. The highest area of concern will be portions of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic that may be impacted by Potential Tropical Cyclone 9 next week. However, the forecast for these regions is highly uncertain given high uncertainty in the forecast track of the system. Most of the Central U.S. and Northeast will remain dry through the period under the influence of high pressure. Precipitation chances may increase later next week across the norht-Central U.S. as a frontal boundary moves across the West and emerges in the Plains. ...Guidance/Predictability Assessment... Model guidance is generally in agreement on the large scale upper level pattern with some uncertainty surrounding features approaching the West and East Coasts. In the West, there is increased agreement on the evolution of the upper trough moving inland, but there are differences in how individual models handle shortwave energy moving through the trough. This has led to differences in the evolution of Pacific frontal systems moving onshore. For now, it seems like a middle of the road solution worked best to represent potential timing and position of these systems. The forecast is much more complicated for the East given a high amount of uncertainty surrounding the evolution of Potential Tropical Cyclone 9, which is currently forecast to move towards the Southeast Coast while strengthening next week. Some models bring the tropical system inland in the Carolinas, some stall the system right over the Carolina coast, and some stall the system further away from the coast before swinging the system out into the Atlantic. The ultimate evolution will depend on the system's interactions with Hurricane Humberto to the east and high pressure strengthening to the north. If the strong high shifts east, the system could move inland, but if the high remains due north, a stalled solution would be favored. After coordinating with the National Hurricane Center, the current forecast thinking is to stall the system very close to the Carolina coast. This solution is similar to the 00/12Z ECMWF solutions and may result in a prolonged heavy rainfall event for coastal areas of the Carolinas. WPC's afternoon forecast blend was comprised of the 00Z ECMWF/CMC/UKMET and 06Z GFS, with heavier weight placed on the ECMWF and GFS than the CMC and UKMET, for Monday through Wednesday. By Thursday and Friday, ensemble means from the GEFS and ECENS were added in increasing amounts, making up to 60% of the blend, which helped to smooth out large differences in the deterministic models. ...Weather/Hazards Highlights... Showers and thunderstorms will be possible near a lingering frontal boundary over the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast early next week. Anomalous moisture associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone 9 will maintain precipitation chances, with a heavy rain and flash flood threats, through mid-week. The highest risk of flash flooding will likely focus over the coastal Carolinas, but rainfall amounts are highly uncertain and will depend on the track of the system. Some models suggest much higher rainfall amounts are possible while some suggest lower amounts. For now, there is a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall across the Carolinas and Virginia with a Slight Risk for the eastern Carolinas and southeastern Virginia on Monday and Tuesday. If the system moves inland at all, there may be enhanced precipitation over upslope areas of the Appalachians that would lead to a higher flash flood risk. The heavy rain and flash flood threats may continue beyond Tuesday if the system stalls near the coast, with precipitation chances extending through Thursday and Friday. Regardless of how the rainfall forecast turns out, the Southeast Coast will likely experience dangerous surf and rip current conditions early next week, and some coastal areas may experience strong winds. Pacific moisture ahead of the upper trough will result in continued rain chances for the West Coast and Intermountain West on Monday and Tuesday. Precipitation may be enhanced over northern California and southern Oregon as a slow-moving frontal system moves onshore, resulting in localized flash flooding chances and a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall on Monday and Tuesday. Precipitation chances should decrease on Wednesday and Thursday, but precipitation will likely linger over the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies. Precipitation chances may also increase later next week across the north-Central U.S. once the frontal system pushes across the mountain and emerges in the Plains. Warmer than average temperatures will persist across the Northern Plains as upper ridging builds over the region next week. Daytime highs could be 10-20 degrees above normal for parts of the Upper Midwest. Below average temperatures are expected across much of the West and Southeast due to upper troughing and potential rainfall. Dolan Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids, quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF), excessive rainfall outlook (ERO), winter weather outlook (WWO) probabilities, heat indices, and Key Messages can be accessed from: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ero https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4 https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ovw
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