Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
258 PM EDT Tue Jun 3 2025

Valid 12Z Fri Jun 06 2025 - 12Z Tue Jun 10 2025

...Heavy rainfall/flash flooding threat from the Southern Plains
to the Northeast Friday into the weekend to include a Southern
Plains to Mid-South Severe Weather threat...

...Heatwave for the Interior Northwest/West and also the U.S.
southern tier, but especially South Texas...

...Compact low to lift along/off the Southeast U.S. late week
being monitorred by NHC for sub-tropical development...


...Guidance/Predictability Assessment...

Models and ensembles have trended toward a better clustered upper
level flow pattern evolution through medium range time scales, but
continue to offer less than stellar run to run variances in
individual surface systems and local weather/hazard focus. Prefer
a composite of GFS/ECMWF/Canadian/UKMET and GEFS/ECMWF/Canadian
ensemble guidance along with favorably supporting guidance from the
01 UTC National Blend of Models. This blend seems to offer a
reasonable middle of spectrum depiction of surface system and
hazard threats consistent with the more predictable upper flow.

...Weather/Hazards Highlights...

The National Hurricane Center is monitoring the potential
development
of a sub-tropical feature off the Southeast Coast. Deepest
moisture may stay offshore and uncertainty is high, but there is a
chance of some heavier rainfall along the coast. WPC maintained the
Marginal Risk of excessive rain for Friday over coastal North
Carolina as the low lifts slowly up the coast in warm and moist
Gulf Stream waters.

Meanwhile, numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected to fire
along a slow-moving and wavy front that will stretch from the
Northeast and Ohio Valley states down to the Southern Plains.
Abundant moisture pooled over the region along with a steady
influx from the Gulf coupled with shortwave/jet support will help
prime the environment for embedded heavy rain potential. This
environment may be conducive for isolated areas with accumulations
of several inches, but local focus details are proving quite
varied in guidance from run to run. WPC has a broad Marginal Risk
spanning from the Plains to the Great Lakes/Northeast Friday into
the weekend. Within the Marginal is a smaller area highlighted
with a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall mainly for Oklahoma, but
also into the adjacent counties of Arkansas and southwest Missouri.
The southern trailing tail of the elongated boundary will stall
and weaken over the southern Plains. Dynamic upper closed
low/trough digging into the north-central U.S. from the weekend
into early next week will spawn fronto/cyclo genesis, with
baroclinicity rejuvenated more broadly again that may act to
spread heavy rainfall focus across the Mid-South and Tennessee
Valley then down across the Mid-Atlantic and the South/Southeast.

Summer heat will build across the Interior Northwest/West and into
the Desert Southwest with establishment of mean upper ridging over
the weekend into next week. Maximum temperatures over the interior
Northwest may range upwards to 20-25F degrees above normal. Areas
from south Texas into the Gulf Coast will also experience rising
temperatures, cresting upwards of 105F by the weekend over South
Texas to push heat index values dangerously upwards to 110-115F.

Please take heat safety precautions such as increased water intake
and more time in air conditioned areas to avoid heat exhaustion
and heat stroke. See weather.gov/heat for more information on
safety tips and resources.

Campbell/Schichtel


Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids,
quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF), excessive rainfall
outlook (ERO), winter weather outlook (WWO) probabilities, heat
indices, and Key Messages can be accessed from:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ero
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ovw

Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
256 PM EDT Wed Jun 4 2025

Valid 12Z Sat Jun 07 2025 - 12Z Wed Jun 11 2025


...Severe weather possible in the southern tier Saturday, with
heavy rain possible there through much of next week...

...Heat wave for the Interior West with some heat in South
Texas...


...Overview...

This weekend into early next week, reloading troughing centered
over the Great Lakes and vicinity will push fronts through the
Plains eastward, producing rounds of thunderstorms that may be
severe and/or cause flash flooding in the southern tier in
particular. Meanwhile, rounds of ridging over the West (though
interrupted by shortwaves) will lead to much above normal
temperatures.


...Guidance/Predictability Assessment...

Model guidance is generally agreeable for the large scale features
of the pattern, with more differences in the details. Broad
troughing is likely across the northern tier this weekend, while
more consolidated energy dives across south-central Canada to form
an upper low by Sunday that reaches the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes
on Monday and deepens the trough slightly across the east-central
U.S. Shortwaves ahead of this main upper low and the resulting
surface lows/fronts and QPF are more uncertain. Within general
spread, the 06Z GFS seemed to be the biggest outlier, as it put a
relatively deep surface low atop Ohio/Pennsylvania by early Sunday
and led to much more QPF along that axis compared to other models
and other GFS runs. Then with the main upper low, surface low
pressure had some minor to moderate spread in its depth and
position. 00/06Z individual models were a bit farther north over
the Great Lakes compared to the ensemble means with the surface low
by early Monday, but the newer 12Z models have jumped south and
are more consistent with the means now. There is good model
consensus for this trough axis to start moving more quickly east by
midweek.

Farther west, there is good agreement for northern stream upper
ridging to be atop the Northwest over the weekend, expanding and
moving east across the Intermountain West gradually next week as a
trough may reach the West Coast by Tuesday or Wednesday. A southern
stream low offshore California to start the period on Saturday
looks to shrink/weaken but perhaps drift inland early next week,
with more uncertainty.

The WPC forecast used a multi-model deterministic blend of the 00Z
GFS/ECMWF/UKMET/CMC for the weekend forecast. As the period
progressed, included some GEFS and EC ensemble means in the blend,
but was able to maintain a majority of deterministic models even
through Day 7 due to the broad scale agreement. Changes to the NBM
and continuity included less QPF in the Southeast overall and more
QPF/PoP in the southern Plains due to newer model trends.


...Weather/Hazards Highlights...

A frontal system will be working through the Northeast at the
start of the period Saturday, with above average moisture (likely
from the Gulf and Atlantic) and instability pooling along and ahead
of it. This should produce some convection possibly with heavy
rain rates over an inch per hour that could cause flash flooding
concerns over typically sensitive areas like terrain in the
Northeast. Thus a Marginal Risk is in place in the Day 4/Saturday
ERO in eastern New York into northern New England. This trend was
farther north than than the previous outlook showed.

This front will stretch back through the Lower Ohio/Tennessee
Valleys, Lower Mississippi Valley, and into the southern Plains.
Ample moisture and high instability is likely across this southern
tier with upper level support at the base of the trough. Rain and
thunderstorms are likely to be widespread with these parameters in
place. The Storm Prediction Center continues to show the potential
for severe weather Saturday across the south-central Plains east
into the Southeast. Meanwhile there is a threat for flash flooding
in much the same areas, but perhaps reaching the southern
Appalachians. The Day 4/Saturday ERO indicates a Marginal Risk,
with an embedded Slight along the Red River into the Ark-La-Tex
where convection may be ongoing Saturday morning, with another
round Saturday night. This Slight was shifted just a bit south
compared to the previous issuance per newer guidance. Did think it
was best to break the Day 4 Marginal Risk that previously stretched
across the central/northern Appalachians and remove those areas,
as rain there is generally expected to be less than half an inch
and not cause flash flooding concerns.

Into Sunday, the front will progress more quickly offshore of the
Northeast, but linger across the southern tier, pressing slightly
southward especially in the Southeast. A Day 5 Marginal Risk is in
place across the Lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast, with an
expansion back west across the southern Plains where models
indicate yet another MCS. Will continue to monitor if/how heavy
rain overlaps with previous days, with the ground being more
sensitive in areas where there has already been heavy rain ,
leading to enhanced flooding concerns. In other words, eventual
upgrades to Slight Risks are certainly possible especially where
antecedent conditions allow for it, and if/where models converge on
placement of heavy rain rates.

Meanwhile, another frontal system will track across the
Midwest/Great Lakes for some modest rain there over the weekend,
reaching the Northeast by Monday and Tuesday. The current forecast
continues to show the leading front dissipating while this
secondary front becomes dominant. The second front settling south
will once again promote rain and thunderstorms across the southern
Plains and Southeast through the first half of next week as the
moisture and instability lingers.

The trough aloft centered in the east-central U.S. will generally
lead to average to slightly below average temperatures there.
However, southern Texas will be a few degrees above already hot
averages, reaching well into the 100s with heat indices possibly
above 110F. But the largest temperature anomalies will be across
the Northwest U.S. through the weekend into early next week
underneath mean upper ridging. Temperatures are forecast to be 15
to 25 degrees above average across much of the Northwest, with
highs reaching well into the 90s in interior areas. Even cities
like Seattle look to reach the mid to upper 80s. Above normal
temperatures will stretch into the central Great Basin, and the
Desert Southwest can expect temperatures well into the 100s to 110
degrees. For safety information, see weather.gov/heat.


Tate


Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids,
quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF), excessive rainfall
outlook (ERO), winter weather outlook (WWO) probabilities, heat
indices, and Key Messages can be accessed from:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ero
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ovw

Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
259 PM EDT Thu Jun 5 2025

Valid 12Z Sun Jun 08 2025 - 12Z Thu Jun 12 2025


...Severe weather/heavy rain threat for the South into next week...

...Interior West to South Texas heatwave into early next week...


...Guidance/Predictability Assessment...

Guidance seem reasonably well clustered for much of next week,
bolstering forecast confidence. However, lingering embedded system
variances continue to vary local weather/hazard focus. Favor a
composite of latest GFS/ECMWF/Canadian/UKMET model and
GEFS/ECMWF/Canadian ensemble guidance along with favorably
supporting guidance from machine learning guidance and the
National Blend of Models. This blend provides a middle of spectrum
depiction of system and hazard threats that seems consistent with
individual feature predictability.

...Weather/Hazards Highlights...

Showers and thunderstorms will continue along front that stretches
through the Lower Ohio/Tennessee/Mississippi Valleys and Mid-
Atlantic back through the Southern Plains. Greater rainfall rates
and accumulations are likely to focus over portions of Oklahoma and
Texas where there will be pooled Gulf moisture and high
instability to tap. The Storm Prediction Center continues to show
the potential for severe weather across the South/Central Plains
east into the Southeast. The Day 4/Sunday WPC Excessive Rainfall
Outlook (ERO) maintains the broad Marginal Risk from the Texas
Panhandle to the Southeast Coast with an embedded Slight risk area
along the Red River into the Ark-La- Tex. The front will advance
southward by Monday and the precipitation will be widespread across
the Gulf states, Lower Mississippi Valley, and eastern parts of
the Southern Plains. The WPC Day 5/Monday ERO continues to show a
broad Marginal Risk that stretches from eastern New Mexico to
western Georgia. Given the variances on the location of the highest
QPF opted to keep the threat potential as a level 1 although there
are signal for local 2 to 4 inches which may require a future
upgrade to a Slight should agreement improve, especially for areas
with precursor rainfall to moisten soils.

Meanwhile, an amplified closed upper trough/low will dig through
the north-central U.S. into next week and force a well defined
wrapping frontal system down across much of the central and eastern
U.S. with overall slow but steady system progression. Expect the
Midwest/Great Lakes will receive moderate rainfall over the
weekend, with focus shifting into the Northeast early-mid next
week. Expect the lead front over The South will dissipate while
this northern stream front becomes dominant to rejuvenate rain and
thunderstorms from the southern Plains to the Southeast next week.

The Interior West to South Texas will experience early season heat
into early next week. For South Texas daily readings will climb
into the 100s, with heat indices upwards of 110F. The greatest
temperature anomalies will produce more widespread record values
across the Interior Northwest U.S. underneath mean upper ridging.
This region will observe readings 15 to 25 degrees warmer than
average, with some interior locations approaching triple digits.
Even cities like Seattle will reach the mid 80s. Above normal
temperatures will stretch to the central Great Basin and Desert
Southwest where temperatures more typically reach 100 degrees by
June. Heat safety information can be found at: weather.gov/heat.


Campbell/Schichtel


Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids,
quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF), excessive rainfall
outlook (ERO), winter weather outlook (WWO) probabilities, heat
indices, and Key Messages can be accessed from:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ero
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ovw

Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
259 PM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025

Valid 12Z Mon Jun 09 2025 - 12Z Fri Jun 13 2025


...Heavy rain threat for the South into next week...

...Interior West to South Texas heat wave into early next week...


...Overview...

An initial upper low over the Upper Great Lakes on Monday will
open up as it slides into and out of the Northeast
Tuesday-Wednesday.
This will push a cold front through the Eastern U.S. as the
western portion of this front settles across the South for several
days. Moisture and instability along this front will support rounds
of moderate to heavy rainfall particularly from the Southern
Plains into the Gulf Coast states. Upper ridging over the West
will result in much above normal to record heat that could be
hazardous early next week, while southern Texas may see one more
hot day Monday before both areas moderate closer to average.
Deeper troughing will move into the West later next week.


...Guidance/Predictability Assessment...

Model and ensemble guidance shows above average agreement on
overall large scale pattern and evolution next week, but with
plenty of uncertainty in the details that can impact sensible
weather like QPF. The synoptic upper low centered over the
Arrowhead of Minnesota and vicinity as the period begins Monday
starts in good agreement with only a minor increase in spread as it
opens up and shifts east Tuesday-Wednesday. The new 12Z GFS is
slightly on the faster side by midweek, affecting frontal (and QPF)
timing in the Northeast. Broad northern stream ridging in the
central U.S. is pretty locked in behind that trough, though there
is some weak troughing in the southern stream that helps support
the west-east front across the southern tier. Details of these
energies affect the placement of QPF from day to day but will be
hard to resolve and/or pick out outliers. But did have to make some
notable adaptations to the NBM QPF and PoPs in areas like Texas, as
the NBM looked GEFS-heavy with QPF in northern/western Texas
compared to some AI guidance and the operational ECMWF/EC mean that
were farther into the Hill Country to Southeast Texas by around
Tuesday-Thursday. But changes from forecast cycle to forecast cycle
may be needed, as hopefully even these smaller scale energies
supporting the convection converge. Then in the West, models have
shown some differences with upper troughing potentially deepening
along the West Coast into later next week. The newer 12Z model runs
have converged with the trough axis and timing. Ongoing minor
differences remain, but again are less than typical for a Day 6/7
forecast.

The WPC forecast for today used a blend of the deterministic
models through Day 5 given the good larger scale agreement. After
this, increased weighting of the ensemble means to help mitigate
increasing model differences, but was able to maintain a majority
deterministic model blend even into Day 7.


...Weather/Hazards Highlights...

A trailing frontal boundary draped generally west to east across
the South will provide focus for numerous showers and thunderstorms
through much of next week. Moderate to locally heavy rainfall is
possible and the Days 4 and 5 Excessive Rainfall Outlooks (valid
Monday and Tuesday) highlight this threat with broad Marginal Risks
stretching from the southern Rockies/High Plains, across Texas and
the Lower Mississippi Valley, and into parts of the Southeast. On
Monday, the maximum QPF looks to be farther southeast of the
repeated rounds of convection in Oklahoma and vicinity during the
short range period, down in parts of the Lower Mississippi Valley
and Southeast, so antecedent conditions are not as sensitive there.
This seems to preclude a need for a Slight Risk on Day 4 but will
continue to monitor. Then by Day 5/Tuesday, model spread increases
quite a bit in the placement of heavy rainfall, though likely
somewhere in Texas. Thus will also hold off on an embedded Slight
Risk for the Day 5 ERO. Areas that have seen/will see multiple
rounds of heavy rain would be particularly sensitive to flooding.
The northern portion of this boundary should be quicker to move
through the East, but regardless there could be a heavy rainfall
threat given the potent upper jet and moisture and instability
advecting just ahead of the front. Thus the Day 4/Monday Marginal
Risk was expanded through the Tennessee Valley toward the Lower
Great Lakes region for the associated flooding potential. The Day
5/Tuesday Marginal Risk remains in place in portions of the
Interior Northeast for the same setup as the front moves east.
Elsewhere, some modest rain is likely in the Midwest/Great Lakes
Monday under a surface low pressure system. Precipitation will
increase across the Northern Rockies and into the Northern Plains
ahead of a frontal system the second half of the week.

Much above normal temperatures will continue into early next week
for the Northwest, with anomalies of +20-25F likely. This should
equate to a moderate to major HeatRisk for parts of this region
along with widespread record highs through at least Monday.
Temperatures and HeatRisk should moderate Tuesday and Wednesday,
but remain slightly above normal. Major to locally extreme HeatRisk
will continue across South Texas as well into Monday, becoming
much less extreme by Tuesday as an upper level shortwave moves into
the region. By next Thursday and Friday, most of the country will
be near or within a few degrees of normal.


Tate/Santorelli


Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids,
quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF), excessive rainfall
outlook (ERO), winter weather outlook (WWO) probabilities, heat
indices, and Key Messages can be accessed from:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ero
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ovw

Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
258 PM EDT Sat Jun 7 2025

Valid 12Z Tue Jun 10 2025 - 12Z Sat Jun 14 2025


...Heavy rain threat for the south-central U.S. next week...

...Hot temperatures in the Interior West Tuesday gradually moderate
mid to late week...


...Overview...

A cold front will swing through the Northeast early next week,
providing support for locally heavy rain and thunderstorms on
Tuesday. The western portion of this front will settle across the
South before eventually lifting northward as a warm front. Moisture
and instability along this front will support rounds of moderate
to heavy rainfall that could cause flash flooding across the south-
central U.S. through much of next week. To the north, a shortwave
moving through the Northwest through the northern Plains will
bring showers and thunderstorms mid to late next week. Upper
ridging ahead of this shortwave should produce one more day of
potentially hazardous heat in the West Tuesday, and then
temperatures should gradually moderate due to the shortwave and
then deeper troughing reaching the West Coast later week.


...Guidance/Predictability Assessment...

Dynamical, AI, and ensemble model guidance all continue to show
above average agreement on the overall large scale pattern and
evolution during the medium range period, but still with plenty of
uncertainty in the details which would impact sensible weather. For
example, models are quite agreeable with a northern stream upper
trough lifting from the Great Lakes Tuesday to Northeast Wednesday
and a northern stream upper trough behind, but more variable with
the smaller scale southern stream troughing/energy moving through
Texas and vicinity, which causes some rainfall placement and amount
differences. Farther west, shortwaves tracking across the
Northwest to northern Plains show similar minor spread. By late
week, troughing will get well established over the eastern Pacific
and sneaking into the West Coast. An embedded upper low has some
spread in its position, with the EC and CMC farther northeast in
western Canada and GFS runs farther southwest, with the ensemble
means generally in between. The newer 12Z models have converged
somewhat with this. Meanwhile a subtropical ridge will build across
the U.S. southern tier into next weekend, with good model
consensus.

Given the good model agreement early in the period, maintained a
multi-model deterministic blend of the 00/06Z models for the
updated forecast. Added in some ensemble mean component to the
blend by Day 5 and increased the proportion of ensemble means to
half by Day 7, given the increasing spread particularly with the
western trough details.


...Weather/Hazards Highlights...

A trailing frontal boundary draped generally west to east across
the South will provide focus for numerous showers and thunderstorms
through much of next week. The Days 4 and 5 Excessive Rainfall
Outlooks (valid Tuesday and Wednesday) reflect this. For Day 4, a
Marginal Risk stretches from the southern Rockies and Plains into
the central Gulf Coast states along and ahead of the front. Model
guidance has converged better on an excessive rainfall threat
centered over west-central Texas on Tuesday, with potential for
convection to remain Tuesday morning before a nocturnal round of
storms with heavy rain rates Tuesday night. Thus will upgrade to a
Slight Risk in this area where ample moisture and instability
interacts with the front and a shortwave aloft. By Day 5/Wednesday,
continue to carry a Slight Risk in parts of Texas, expanded
somewhat from the previous issuance to cover possible multiple
convective complexes and also the increasing spread in position of
heaviest rain. By Thursday-Friday, the frontal boundary should
gradually lift northward, with heavy rainfall moving into Oklahoma
and the Lower/Middle Mississippi Valley. Much of this area has been
wet as of late and will need to be monitored for flooding concerns
later this week.

The northern portion of this front should be quicker to move
through the East, but heavy rainfall is possible along the boundary
amidst ample moisture and instability and favorable upper level
dynamics. A Marginal Risk for the interior Northeast remains on the
Day 4 ERO. Elsewhere, additional shortwave energy interacting with
a frontal boundary across the northern tier will bring showers and
storms across parts of the northern Rockies into the Upper
Midwest. Moisture anomalies should be above the 90th percentile in
Montana, prompting a Marginal Risk there for the Day 5/Wednesday
ERO. Additionally, convection is likely to move through the north-
central U.S. along the cusp of the instability gradient. Will
maintain a Marginal Risk there as well for Wednesday, with some
broadening but a general southward adjustment from the previous
shift per model trends. Additional rounds of rain and storms are
possible in the northern tier through late next week.

Much above normal temperatures will continue into Tuesday for the
Northwest, with anomalies of +20-25F likely for one more day. A few
record highs are possible there along with moderate HeatRisk, and
moderate to major HeatRisk is forecast to expand south through the
Great Basin and Desert Southwest. Western heat should gradually
moderate as the week progresses, but could remain above normal
especially over the Great Basin. Most other areas look to be within
a few degrees of average by later next week, though the Mid-
Atlantic could see temperatures of 5-10F above average Thursday-
Friday with highs reaching the 90s. Average temperatures are
reaching the 90s in the southern tier this time of year though,
and the subtropical ridge will produce hot and humid conditions and
warm overnight lows.


Tate/Santorelli


Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids,
quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF), excessive rainfall
outlook (ERO), winter weather outlook (WWO) probabilities, heat
indices, and Key Messages can be accessed from:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ero
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ovw