Weather Prediction Center

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
205 AM EDT Sun Apr 05 2026

Valid 12Z Sun Apr 05 2026 - 12Z Tue Apr 07 2026

...Thunderstorms and showers continue from New England into Lower
Mississippi Valley/Southeast on Sunday...

...Cold air surging into the Plains on Monday and will move eastward by
Tuesday, bringing below normal temperatures...

A surface low over eastern Canada will continue to lift northeastward on
Sunday, while its associated cold front will continue to bring
thunderstorms and showers across the coastline of the Northeast,
Mid-Atlantic and Southeast states. Most of the front will move off the
coast by late Sunday night, with a portion of the front stalling over
Florida, which will continue to bring thunderstorms into Monday. In
addition, some lingering wintry mix will taper off by Sunday afternoon
over Northern New England before transitioning to rain. High pressure will
begin to build behind the front, bringing cooler and drier conditions
across much eastern U.S. The tightened pressure gradient over portions of
the Southern High Plains will promote southerly winds and low relative
humidity, which will bring elevated fire weather concerns over southeast
Colorado and portions of New Mexico for Sunday.

Another low pressure system will move across the the Upper Midwest/Great
Lakes Sunday into Monday. The associated front will bring chances for a
wintry mix across the Great Lakes and Northern/Central Plains. A weak
shortwave trough will bring some moisture over portions of the Southwest
on Monday into Tuesday, with chances for light snow accumulations over
higher terrain.

Temperatures over much of Eastern U.S. will become cooler behind the cold
front on Sunday, while Western U.S. continues to see above normal
temperatures. Cold air from central Canada will reinforce further cooling,
bringing temperatures between 20s and 30s over parts of Northern Plains
and Upper Midwest on Monday. These below normal temperatures will
gradually push eastward as the clipper system moves into the Northeast,
lower Great Lakes, and Ohio Valley on Tuesday.

Oudit


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
219 PM EDT Sun Apr 5 2026

Valid 12Z Wed Apr 08 2026 - 12Z Sun Apr 12 2026


...Guidance/Predictability Assessment...

Model and ensemble medium range solutions continue to become
better clustered, increasing confidence in the overall pattern
evolution through the period. A general model blend of the latest
deterministic and EC-AIFS solutions offers a good start for the
Wednesday to Friday period. Predictability does broadly remain
better than normal into next weekend with an upper low entering the
Southwest and another dropping from the Gulf of Alaska to the
Northwest. Some uncertainty still in the timing and of these
systems and also any interaction between the Southwest low and
additional northern stream energy. Models have been trending
towards more separation though. The WPC blend for next weekend was
weighted a bit more towards the ensemble means to help mitigate the
smaller scale differences that cannot be resolved at these time
scales. This approach maintains good agreement with the previous
WPC forecast and is consistent with the latest NBM guidance as
well.


...Weather/Hazards Highlights...

Flow over the nation this week will remain highlighted by two main
streams. An energetic northern stream upper trough/low and
deepened surface system will progress from the north-central U.S.
midweek to the Northeast/Canadian Maritimes by Friday, slicing
through leading and cooled high pressure. A swath of moderate
rains, northern periphery snows, and gusty winds will accompany its
passage. The consensus is growing in the guidance for a heavy to
excessive rainfall threat focus on Thursday along the front from
parts of the Central Plains into the Middle Mississippi Valley.
Went ahead with a Day 5/Thursday Marginal Risk in the ERO today,
which is consistent with the latest Day 3-7 Hazards map as well.
Another main system well upstream offers timing/emphasis
uncertainty with weekend digging and modest rain/mountain snow
track into the Northwest.

Meanwhile in the southern stream, a lead/wavy frontal boundary
lingering over the Gulf and through Florida should prolong a wet
pattern this week with easterly lower level flow focusing activity
over Florida. The WPC Excessive Rainfall Outlook maintains a Day
4/Wednesday Marginal Risk area for eastern coastal Florida, with
potential for this activity to continue into Thursday though with
lesser intensity. Showers may also affect to a lesser extent
Southeast U.S. and Gulf Coastal areas, with some increasing focus
over southern Texas with leading return flow ahead of the upper low
over the West to monitor. High pressure will remain in place
farther north over the South/Southeast and gradually heat- up
through later period ridge building aloft out from the south-
central U.S..

Well upstream, an unsettling/cooling eastern Pacific closed upper
trough and surface system will work slowly inland to the
West/Southwest with growing light to moderate shower chances Friday
into the weekend. Ample lead return flow development then over the
central U.S. may portend an emerging heavy rainfall threat this
weekend into early next week that has some signal evident beyond
that into week 2 as per the Climate Prediction Center (CPC). This
may offer broad moderate and high risk potential to monitor.

Santorelli/Schichtel


Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids,
quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF), excessive rainfall
outlook (ERO), winter weather outlook (WWO) probabilities, heat
indices, and Key Messages can be accessed from:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ero
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ovw

Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
240 AM EDT Sun Apr 5 2026

Valid 00Z Mon 06 Apr 2026 - 00Z Mon 13 Apr 2026

...Heavy rain and flash flooding potential increasing mid to late
week...

Confidence continues to increase regarding a heavy rainfall and
potential flash flooding threat for the mid to late week period.
But first in the short term, a tranquil period will persist
through Monday as surface high pressure remains established north
of the state, maintaining a dry airmass and below-average
precipitable water (PW) values. However, the synoptic pattern
begins to shift shortly thereafter as the first of two upper-level
troughs cross the Dateline, with shortwave energy approaching the
islands from the northwest Monday into Tuesday. While the
associated cold front is expected to remain well west of the
islands, low-level winds will veer southerly ahead of the
boundary, supporting the return of deeper tropical moisture across
the state beginning Tuesday.

PW anomalies will increase further through midweek as a second,
more potent upper-level trough moves east of the Dateline and digs
toward the islands. Guidance indicates that a surface low will
develop and strengthen along the lingering boundary as an upper-
level low begins to close off northwest of the islands by
Thursday. This evolution is expected to significantly amplify the
southerly flow, drawing a deep plume of tropical moisture over the
state and increasing the potential for organized heavy rainfall
and flash flooding. Ensemble guidance currently reflects this
increasing threat; both the GFS and ECMWF ensembles show
probabilities exceeding 60 percent for 24-hour rainfall totals
over one inch for the western islands, with the ECMWF ensemble
highlighting over a 40 percent chance for amounts over two inches
Thursday into Friday. While model divergence exists regarding the
exact track and timing, the general consensus suggests the low
will eventually weaken and lift northeastward. However, a surface
boundary and its corresponding axis of deep moisture are likely to
remain draped over the islands, sustaining a heavy rain and
flooding threat through the weekend.

Pereira

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
353 PM EDT Sun Apr 5 2026
Day 1
Valid 16Z Sun Apr 05 2026 - 12Z Mon Apr 06 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER A PORTION OF
SOUTH TEXAS...

16Z update... The latest observations continue to show convection
across South Texas this morning although coverage and intensity
have been decreasing from the west. Hires guidance is depicting
hourly rainfall rates of at least 0.50"/hr persisting at least
into the mid afternoon hours, especially along the coast and points
inland. The Marginal Risk was trimmed across the western/northern
boundary to account for observations and model trends.

Campbell

Previous discussion... Surface analysis overnight showed a surface
cold front having made its way across much of Texas leading up to
the start of the Day 1 period. Consequently, much of the deepest
moisture and best instability needed for intense downpours will
have already been ushered out to sea. The HREF and RRFS both
lingered the potential for 1 inch per hour rainfall across the
southern-most tip of Texas where post-frontal winds had enough of
on-shore flow component into the mid- or late-morning. Given the
coverage of impervious surfaces due to urbanization that would
result in run-off...opted to maintain the Marginal risk area after
continuing to shrink the areal coverage from the previous issuance.

Bann

Day 1 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94epoints.txt

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
353 PM EDT Sun Apr 5 2026
Day 2
Valid 12Z Mon Apr 06 2026 - 12Z Tue Apr 07 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF
FLORIDA...

The trailing tail of a cold front advancing offshore the East Coast
will be slowly moving through central portions of the state during
this period; which will provide a focus for showers and
thunderstorms to fire up along within the moist tropical airmass.
Hi-res guidance is suggesting several hours where rainfall rates
pulsate between 0.50"/hr to 3+"/hr. These rates may reach or exceed
local FFG in isolated locations therefore a Marginal Risk area was
raised.

Campbell


Day 2 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98epoints.txt

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
353 PM EDT Sun Apr 5 2026
Day 3
Valid 12Z Tue Apr 07 2026 - 12Z Wed Apr 08 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF
THE EAST COAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...

21Z update... Maintained the Marginal Risk area with no
adjustments made.

Campbell

A cold front will be passing over Florida and provide a focus for
above average moisture there and possibly into Gulf Coastal areas.
The strongest signals from the 05/00Z numerical guidance was for
the heaviest rainfall to be off-shore on Tuesday. Even so...post-
frontal on-shore flow has could allow for some showers and
thunderstorms to come on-shore with localized downpours.

Bann
Day 3 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/99epoints.txt

Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
219 PM EDT Sun Apr 5 2026


Flow over the nation this week will remain highlighted by two main
streams. An energetic northern stream upper trough/low and
deepened surface system will progress from the north-central U.S.
midweek to the Northeast/Canadian Maritimes by Friday, slicing
through leading and cooled high pressure. A swath of moderate
rains, northern periphery snows, and gusty winds will accompany its
passage. The consensus is growing in the guidance for a heavy to
excessive rainfall threat focus on Thursday along the front from
parts of the Central Plains into the Middle Mississippi Valley.
Went ahead with a Day 5/Thursday Marginal Risk in the ERO today,
which is consistent with the latest Day 3-7 Hazards map as well.
Another main system well upstream offers timing/emphasis
uncertainty with weekend digging and modest rain/mountain snow
track into the Northwest.

Meanwhile in the southern stream, a lead/wavy frontal boundary
lingering over the Gulf and through Florida should prolong a wet
pattern this week with easterly lower level flow focusing activity
over Florida. The WPC Excessive Rainfall Outlook maintains a Day
4/Wednesday Marginal Risk area for eastern coastal Florida, with
potential for this activity to continue into Thursday though with
lesser intensity. Showers may also affect to a lesser extent
Southeast U.S. and Gulf Coastal areas, with some increasing focus
over southern Texas with leading return flow ahead of the upper low
over the West to monitor. High pressure will remain in place
farther north over the South/Southeast and gradually heat- up
through later period ridge building aloft out from the south-
central U.S..

Well upstream, an unsettling/cooling eastern Pacific closed upper
trough and surface system will work slowly inland to the
West/Southwest with growing light to moderate shower chances Friday
into the weekend. Ample lead return flow development then over the
central U.S. may portend an emerging heavy rainfall threat this
weekend into early next week that has some signal evident beyond
that into week 2 as per the Climate Prediction Center (CPC). This
may offer broad moderate and high risk potential to monitor.

Santorelli/Schichtel

Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
219 PM EDT Sun Apr 5 2026


Flow over the nation this week will remain highlighted by two main
streams. An energetic northern stream upper trough/low and
deepened surface system will progress from the north-central U.S.
midweek to the Northeast/Canadian Maritimes by Friday, slicing
through leading and cooled high pressure. A swath of moderate
rains, northern periphery snows, and gusty winds will accompany its
passage. The consensus is growing in the guidance for a heavy to
excessive rainfall threat focus on Thursday along the front from
parts of the Central Plains into the Middle Mississippi Valley.
Went ahead with a Day 5/Thursday Marginal Risk in the ERO today,
which is consistent with the latest Day 3-7 Hazards map as well.
Another main system well upstream offers timing/emphasis
uncertainty with weekend digging and modest rain/mountain snow
track into the Northwest.

Meanwhile in the southern stream, a lead/wavy frontal boundary
lingering over the Gulf and through Florida should prolong a wet
pattern this week with easterly lower level flow focusing activity
over Florida. The WPC Excessive Rainfall Outlook maintains a Day
4/Wednesday Marginal Risk area for eastern coastal Florida, with
potential for this activity to continue into Thursday though with
lesser intensity. Showers may also affect to a lesser extent
Southeast U.S. and Gulf Coastal areas, with some increasing focus
over southern Texas with leading return flow ahead of the upper low
over the West to monitor. High pressure will remain in place
farther north over the South/Southeast and gradually heat- up
through later period ridge building aloft out from the south-
central U.S..

Well upstream, an unsettling/cooling eastern Pacific closed upper
trough and surface system will work slowly inland to the
West/Southwest with growing light to moderate shower chances Friday
into the weekend. Ample lead return flow development then over the
central U.S. may portend an emerging heavy rainfall threat this
weekend into early next week that has some signal evident beyond
that into week 2 as per the Climate Prediction Center (CPC). This
may offer broad moderate and high risk potential to monitor.

Santorelli/Schichtel

Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
214 PM EDT Sun Apr 5 2026

Valid 00Z Mon Apr 06 2026 - 00Z Thu Apr 09 2026


...Great Lakes & Northeast...
Days 1-2...

Compact shortwave digging out of Manitoba will race southeast,
crossing the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes Monday before becoming
embedded into the more synoptic cyclonic flow across the Northeast
by Tuesday. This will help spawn a weak wave of low pressure along
an inverted surface trough, with locally enhanced moist advection
in the vicinity of this low leading to a swath of light to moderate
snowfall. The heaviest synoptic snow should be generally north of
the international border, but CAA in the wake of this impulse will
push 850mb temps down to around -15C, producing a favorable
environment for lake effect snow (LES) in the favored NW snow belts
downstream of the Great Lakes. The duration and intensity of this
LES may be somewhat modest, but significant accumulations exceeding
4" are still possible (30-70% chance) across the western U.P. on
D1, and 10-50% along the Chautauqua Ridge east of Lake Erie on D2.
Additionally, although accumulations are expected to be generally
less than 2", post impulse NW flow will create some upslope
snowfall across the Adirondacks and Greens on D2.


...Missouri Valley/Corn Belt...
Day 2...

An interesting evolution Monday night into Tuesday morning could
result in a very narrow corridor of heavy snowfall from eastern
Nebraska into Iowa and Missouri. A modest shortwave dropping across
the Central Rockies will cause weak height falls and broad
divergence across the region Monday night into Tuesday. At the same
time, a potent NW to SE oriented jet streak will arc southward on
the upwind side of a trough moving over the Great Lakes/Northeast,
leaving favorable RRQ diffluence overlapping the best mid-level
divergence. This mid- level pattern will push a cold front through
the region Monday, but it is likely that this front will begin to
kink and return northward with warm advection Tuesday morning as
850mb flow returns to the S/SW creating a narrow corridor of
impressive fgen as moist isentropic upglide ascends the boundary.

The overlap of this moist isentropic ascent with the RRQ of the jet
streak aloft will create a narrow stripe of intense 850-600mb fgen,
creating a streak of heavy precipitation. With the most intense
ascent expected to lift into the deepening DGZ (50% chance of at
least 50mb of DGZ depth according to the SREF), dynamic cooling
should overcome the generally marginal thermal structure, leading
to a stripe of heavy snow with snowfall rates potentially reaching
1"/hr. There remains considerable uncertainty into the placement
of this band due to its narrow nature, as well as the intensity of
any of the snow, but WPC probabilities have increased, and now
feature a 30-50% chance of at least 2" Tuesday morning, potentially
leading to a hazardous morning commute.


Weiss

Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
219 PM EDT Sun Apr 5 2026

Valid 12Z Wed Apr 08 2026 - 12Z Sun Apr 12 2026


...Guidance/Predictability Assessment...

Model and ensemble medium range solutions continue to become
better clustered, increasing confidence in the overall pattern
evolution through the period. A general model blend of the latest
deterministic and EC-AIFS solutions offers a good start for the
Wednesday to Friday period. Predictability does broadly remain
better than normal into next weekend with an upper low entering the
Southwest and another dropping from the Gulf of Alaska to the
Northwest. Some uncertainty still in the timing and of these
systems and also any interaction between the Southwest low and
additional northern stream energy. Models have been trending
towards more separation though. The WPC blend for next weekend was
weighted a bit more towards the ensemble means to help mitigate the
smaller scale differences that cannot be resolved at these time
scales. This approach maintains good agreement with the previous
WPC forecast and is consistent with the latest NBM guidance as
well.


...Weather/Hazards Highlights...

Flow over the nation this week will remain highlighted by two main
streams. An energetic northern stream upper trough/low and
deepened surface system will progress from the north-central U.S.
midweek to the Northeast/Canadian Maritimes by Friday, slicing
through leading and cooled high pressure. A swath of moderate
rains, northern periphery snows, and gusty winds will accompany its
passage. The consensus is growing in the guidance for a heavy to
excessive rainfall threat focus on Thursday along the front from
parts of the Central Plains into the Middle Mississippi Valley.
Went ahead with a Day 5/Thursday Marginal Risk in the ERO today,
which is consistent with the latest Day 3-7 Hazards map as well.
Another main system well upstream offers timing/emphasis
uncertainty with weekend digging and modest rain/mountain snow
track into the Northwest.

Meanwhile in the southern stream, a lead/wavy frontal boundary
lingering over the Gulf and through Florida should prolong a wet
pattern this week with easterly lower level flow focusing activity
over Florida. The WPC Excessive Rainfall Outlook maintains a Day
4/Wednesday Marginal Risk area for eastern coastal Florida, with
potential for this activity to continue into Thursday though with
lesser intensity. Showers may also affect to a lesser extent
Southeast U.S. and Gulf Coastal areas, with some increasing focus
over southern Texas with leading return flow ahead of the upper low
over the West to monitor. High pressure will remain in place
farther north over the South/Southeast and gradually heat- up
through later period ridge building aloft out from the south-
central U.S..

Well upstream, an unsettling/cooling eastern Pacific closed upper
trough and surface system will work slowly inland to the
West/Southwest with growing light to moderate shower chances Friday
into the weekend. Ample lead return flow development then over the
central U.S. may portend an emerging heavy rainfall threat this
weekend into early next week that has some signal evident beyond
that into week 2 as per the Climate Prediction Center (CPC). This
may offer broad moderate and high risk potential to monitor.

Santorelli/Schichtel


Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids,
quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF), excessive rainfall
outlook (ERO), winter weather outlook (WWO) probabilities, heat
indices, and Key Messages can be accessed from:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ero
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ovw