Weather Prediction Center

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
254 PM EST Sun Feb 22 2026

Valid 00Z Mon Feb 23 2026 - 00Z Wed Feb 25 2026

...Major Winter Storm for the Northeast...

...Heavy snow for the northern Mid-Atlantic and Northeast...

...Snow for the Great Lakes on Tuesday...

Low pressure off the Mid-Atlantic Coast will move northeastward to Eastern
Canada by Tuesday morning. The system will produce heavy snow over the
northern Mid-Atlantic into the Northeast from Sunday afternoon into
Monday. The winter storm will produce widespread significant impacts
across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast Sunday into Monday as a low-pressure
system rapidly intensifies off the Mid-Atlantic coast. Snowfall rates of
two to three inches per hour will occur at times, with snowfall totals as
high as one to two feet, resulting in nearly impossible travel conditions.

Furthermore, the combination of heavy snowfall and strong winds will
result in blizzard conditions along coastal areas from the DelMarVa
Peninsula through southeastern New England. Sharply reduced visibility
will make travel extremely treacherous across these areas. Wind gusts of
40-70 mph are expected from coastal New Jersey into southeast New England.
These strong winds, combined with the weight of heavy, wet snow, will
likely result in scattered to numerous power outages. In addition,
moderate coastal flooding, with road and property inundation near the
waterfront, is most likely from Delaware to Cape Cod. In addition, light
to moderate snow will develop over the Great Lakes through Monday
afternoon.

Meanwhile, onshore flow off the Pacific will produce coastal rain and
higher-elevation snow over parts of Northern California into the
Northwest, continuing into Tuesday evening. The lower-elevation rain and
snow will move into the Northern Intermountain Region, expanding into the
Northern High Plains and Central Rockies, from Monday into Tuesday.
Additionally, low pressure moving out of the Northern High Plains will
move eastward to the Great Lakes by Tuesday evening. The system will
produce snow over parts of the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes on Tuesday,
expanding into the Ohio Valley, Lower Great Lakes, and Central
Appalachians by Tuesday evening.

Ziegenfelder

Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
300 PM EST Sun Feb 22 2026

Valid 12Z Wed Feb 25 2026 - 12Z Sun Mar 01 2026


...Overview...

The medium-range period will feature an upper-level ridge axis
anchored near the West Coast while broad troughing will prevail
from the Plains eastward. A shortwave embedded within the broad
trough will eject from the northern Rockies midweek. A clipper will
then track across the central U.S. through the Northeast with
heavy rain and strong thunderstorm potentials across the Mid-South
Thursday and wintry weather potential across interior New England
on Friday. These will be followed by arctic air intrusion from the
northern Plains to the Northeast for the weekend.


...Guidance/Predictability Assessment...

Model guidance is in general agreement on the aforementioned
synoptic evolution through the medium-range. The model spread
related to the clipper ejecting out of the northern to central
Rockies midweek has improved since yesterday, with a low pressure
wave to track from the central Plains to the Ohio Valley Wednesday
to Thursday, then across New England on Friday. This trend has
slightly narrowed the area of moderate to heavy rainfall across the
Mid- South to the Ohio Valley on Thursday followed by increasing
confidence on wintry weather prospects across interior New England
with a band of sleet/freezing rain possible although details are
not yet clear at this point. The AI models have come into better
agreement with this scenario. The CMC remains the exception with a
much less developed frontal wave.

Prior to this system, models have continue to speed up a clipper
across the Great Lakes on Wednesday with northern New England
likely receiving a period of light to moderate wintry
precipitation Thursday to Friday. Behind the aforementioned frontal
wave, an outbreak of arctic air remains on track across the
northern Plains to New England through the weekend.

In the western U.S., models have continued to show a subtle/gradual
northward expansion of the upper ridge, resulting in a gradual
drying trend spreading north toward Pacific Northwest and northern
Rockies on Days 4 & 5.

The WPC forecast was based on a general model blend early in the
period, with increasing proportions of the ensemble means as the
period progressed, reaching 75% by Day 7.


...Weather/Hazards Highlights...

Modest precipitation, including northern tier snow, is forecast to
impact parts of the central and eastern U.S. on Wednesday. By
Thursday moisture is forecast to increase ahead of strong upper-
level energy moving through the central U.S. and along/ahead of a
cold front at the surface. Some instability could reach through
parts of the Southeast into the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys toward
the southern/central Appalachians. Thus rain and potentially strong
thunderstorms are forecast in those areas, with widespread amounts
likely 1-2 inches and locally higher totals. A Marginal Risk is
maintained for this area on the Day 5/Thursday ERO. Antecedent
conditions are generally neutral there (drier farther west and
farther south), but the relatively fast movement of the rain could
be a limiting factor for flooding. Meanwhile to the north, wintry
weather is likely across much of the Northeast, with snow to the
north and a band of sleet/freezing rain to the south but there
remains a fair amount of uncertainty on the low track.
Precipitation should clear across much of the Eastern Seaboard by
Friday behind the cold front, though light rain/drizzle could
linger across southern Georgia/Florida. Another round of
precipitation is possible across the east-central U.S. into next
weekend.

Some rain and higher elevation snow are possible across portions
of the Pacific Northwest and farther inland across the
Intermountain West and Rockies on Wednesday. Precipitation coverage
should lessen into late week, but remain across the Pacific
Northwest and the northern Rockies. Downstream, the mean
westerly/northwesterly flow will lead to high winds concerns across
the Rockies and High Plains through much of next week, with fire
weather a potential threat.

The western two-thirds of the country will mostly be warmer than
average mid to late week due to the upper ridge over the Southwest.
The Southwest into the Plains can expect temperatures of 15 to 25
degrees above average, leading to highs in the 80s in Texas at
times and over 90F in parts of the Desert Southwest. Aside from a
chilly Wednesday morning across the Northeast and Florida, the East
should generally be near average for temperatures. Then over the
weekend, an outbreak of arctic air from Canada remains in store,
which will spread below average temperatures to the north-central
U.S. and moderating temperatures to close to normal across much of
the Plains/Mississippi Valley.


Kong/Tate


Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids,
quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF), excessive rainfall
outlook (ERO), winter weather outlook (WWO) probabilities, heat
indices, and Key Messages can be accessed from:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ero
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ovw

Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
340 AM EST Sun Feb 22 2026

Valid 00Z Mon 23 Feb 2026 - 00Z Mon 02 Mar 2026

The synoptic pattern at the start of the period will be
characterized by an upper-level trough gradually weakening and
pulling away to the northeast. However, a surface cold front
currently just north of the islands will be slowly dropping
southward and should move through the islands through Monday. The
slow progression of this boundary, coupled with moist east-to-
northeast flow, will favor areas of locally heavy showers and
thunderstorms along windward slopes. Climatologically favored
windward and mauka areas of Kauai, Oahu, Molokai, and Maui appear
most at risk for the heaviest rainfall, with at least a few inches
of rain expected locally where the heavier showers become
anchored to the terrain. The 00Z HREF guidance supports this
scenario. Consequently, localized flash flooding concerns will
remain elevated through the early part of the week.

On Tuesday and Wednesday, there may be some additional showers
focused over the Big Island as nearby remnants of the front and
moisture along it remains focused nearby. However, this boundary
is forecast to weaken and lose its identity as surface high
pressure builds down from the north and becomes the dominant
feature. With a deeper-layer trough situated well to the northeast
and a new upper-level trough developing far to the northwest, the
islands will transition into a drier, more stable regime for the
latter half of the week. Precipitation should gradually become
limited to sparse windward showers embedded in typical east-to-
northeast trade winds. The 00Z guidance shows very good model
agreement, with the EC-AIFS and AIGFS solutions aligned with the
GFS, ECMWF, and CMC runs.

Confidence decreases slightly toward the end of the week (Days
5-7) as the trough to the northwest shifts eastward, driving a
weak cold front toward the state from the west. This feature will
likely slacken the trade wind gradient while increasing moisture
across Kauai and Oahu. While the remaining deterministic consensus
is slower, the ECMWF, EC-AIFS and AIGFS are more progressive in
bringing a return of heavy shower activity to the western islands
next weekend.

Orrison

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
745 PM EST Sun Feb 22 2026
Day 1
Valid 01Z Mon Feb 23 2026 - 12Z Mon Feb 23 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Pereira


Day 1 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94epoints.txt

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
745 PM EST Sun Feb 22 2026
Day 2
Valid 12Z Mon Feb 23 2026 - 12Z Tue Feb 24 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWESTERN WASHINGTON, ALL OF WESTERN OREGON, AND INTO PORTIONS
OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...

1930 UTC Update: Only minor changes made to the Day 2 Marginal Risk
area based on the latest QPF guidance.

Hurley

A deep positively tilted trough extends from around Vancouver
Island southwest down past the Hawaiian Islands at the start of the
period 12Z Monday. This trough extending that far south will draw
deep tropical warmth and moisture and rapidly draw it northeastward
into the Pacific Northwest on a 170 kt southwesterly jet. At the
surface, a low west of Vancouver Island will track southwestward
and merge with a weaker, smaller low. This will allow an impulse of
tropical moisture departing from the Hawaiian Islands to track
into the Oregon and Washington coasts by Monday night as a weak
surface low develops within the moisture plume.

Rain associated with the onshore flow will impact mainly the
Washington and Oregon coasts during the day Monday, gradually
sinking south in response to the approaching impulse of moisture
from the tropics. The low and associated heavy rain moves into the
coast near the OR/CA border Monday night. Since its track is
somewhat parallel to the coast, a rather small percentage of the
moisture will penetrate into the interior, so the coastal mountains
are likely to take the lion's share of the associated rain. The
warmth moving into the coast will allow snow levels across much of
Northern California to rise above 8,000 ft Monday night around the
OR/CA border, and above 10,000 ft further south towards the Bay
Area and Sacramento. This will initiate the snowmelt process across
all of the coastal Ranges and Sierra Nevada Mountains. The
inherited Marginal Risk remains unchanged for this area as recent
cold and snow has kept stream and creek levels at low levels. Thus,
the rain and snowmelt will begin to contribute to stream rises but
flooding should remain rather isolated as much of the rain gets
absorbed into the snowpack.

Wegman


Day 2 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98epoints.txt

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
745 PM EST Sun Feb 22 2026
Day 3
Valid 12Z Tue Feb 24 2026 - 12Z Wed Feb 25 2026

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN SIERRA NEVADA MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS...

1930 UTC Update: Made minor modifications to the Slight Risk area,
based on the latest model QPFs, as well as the latest 48hr snowmelt
projection from the National Snow Analyses page
(nohrsc.noaa.gov/nsa). Meteorological details below continue to
suffice for this event. Per additional collaboration with the
National Water Center (NWC) earlier today, the combination of heavy
rainfall and snowmelt may result in localized flash flooding along
small streams as well as in poor drainage areas.

Hurley

Previous discussion below...

A deep positively tilted trough that extends from Vancouver Island
southwest through the Hawaiian Islands will remain the primary
steering mechanism for an atmospheric river from the tropics and
into Oregon. This moisture will be aided by a 150 kt southwesterly
jet. This jet and the downstream ridging over the Southwest will
flatten out as the trough cuts off into an upper low well north and
east of Hawaii. This will cut off the feed of tropical moisture
into the West Coast by Tuesday night. Thus, the period of heaviest
rains will be primarily during the day Tuesday. A surface low
Tuesday morning will be near where the coast meets with the CA/OR
border. Since the rain associated with the low has origins in the
tropics, associated elevated instability, anomalous warmth and
moisture will all move into northern California. Snow levels will
rise to over 8,000 ft over much of northern California, and over
9,000 ft across much of the northern Sierra Nevada. This will
result in occasionally heavy rain associated with elevated
convection that quickly tracks northeastward into northern
California. Rainfall rates could exceed 3/4 inches per hour at
times.

Meanwhile recent abundant heavy snow from abnormally low snow
levels will be replaced with this tropical moisture and warmth. The
now very high snow levels will initiate the snow melting process.
When the heavy rain moves in over that snow pack, expect initial
absorption of the rain by the snow pack Tuesday morning, but as
more rain moves in Tuesday afternoon, it's likely that areas of
less deep snowpack, such as the foothills of the Sierra Nevada and
the Shasta, Siskiyou, and Salmon Ranges will all see rapid runoff
occur, sending local streams, creeks, and rivers rising very
quickly. This will be the combined result of both heavy rain and
fast snow melt. Given the expected rapid rises from both small
creeks to large rivers, flash flooding is likely to be a bit more
widespread. Thus, a Slight Risk upgrade has been hoisted for the
Sierra Nevada foothills, where the heaviest rains are expected due
to the greatest magnitude of upslope. However, heavy rains into the
other Northern California ranges may necessitate an expansion of
the Slight Risk with future updates.

Wegman

Day 3 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/99epoints.txt

Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
300 PM EST Sun Feb 22 2026


Modest precipitation, including northern tier snow, is forecast to
impact parts of the central and eastern U.S. on Wednesday. By
Thursday moisture is forecast to increase ahead of strong upper-
level energy moving through the central U.S. and along/ahead of a
cold front at the surface. Some instability could reach through
parts of the Southeast into the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys toward
the southern/central Appalachians. Thus rain and potentially strong
thunderstorms are forecast in those areas, with widespread amounts
likely 1-2 inches and locally higher totals. A Marginal Risk is
maintained for this area on the Day 5/Thursday ERO. Antecedent
conditions are generally neutral there (drier farther west and
farther south), but the relatively fast movement of the rain could
be a limiting factor for flooding. Meanwhile to the north, wintry
weather is likely across much of the Northeast, with snow to the
north and a band of sleet/freezing rain to the south but there
remains a fair amount of uncertainty on the low track.
Precipitation should clear across much of the Eastern Seaboard by
Friday behind the cold front, though light rain/drizzle could
linger across southern Georgia/Florida. Another round of
precipitation is possible across the east-central U.S. into next
weekend.

Some rain and higher elevation snow are possible across portions
of the Pacific Northwest and farther inland across the
Intermountain West and Rockies on Wednesday. Precipitation coverage
should lessen into late week, but remain across the Pacific
Northwest and the northern Rockies. Downstream, the mean
westerly/northwesterly flow will lead to high winds concerns across
the Rockies and High Plains through much of next week, with fire
weather a potential threat.

The western two-thirds of the country will mostly be warmer than
average mid to late week due to the upper ridge over the Southwest.
The Southwest into the Plains can expect temperatures of 15 to 25
degrees above average, leading to highs in the 80s in Texas at
times and over 90F in parts of the Desert Southwest. Aside from a
chilly Wednesday morning across the Northeast and Florida, the East
should generally be near average for temperatures. Then over the
weekend, an outbreak of arctic air from Canada remains in store,
which will spread below average temperatures to the north-central
U.S. and moderating temperatures to close to normal across much of
the Plains/Mississippi Valley.


Kong/Tate

Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
300 PM EST Sun Feb 22 2026


Modest precipitation, including northern tier snow, is forecast to
impact parts of the central and eastern U.S. on Wednesday. By
Thursday moisture is forecast to increase ahead of strong upper-
level energy moving through the central U.S. and along/ahead of a
cold front at the surface. Some instability could reach through
parts of the Southeast into the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys toward
the southern/central Appalachians. Thus rain and potentially strong
thunderstorms are forecast in those areas, with widespread amounts
likely 1-2 inches and locally higher totals. A Marginal Risk is
maintained for this area on the Day 5/Thursday ERO. Antecedent
conditions are generally neutral there (drier farther west and
farther south), but the relatively fast movement of the rain could
be a limiting factor for flooding. Meanwhile to the north, wintry
weather is likely across much of the Northeast, with snow to the
north and a band of sleet/freezing rain to the south but there
remains a fair amount of uncertainty on the low track.
Precipitation should clear across much of the Eastern Seaboard by
Friday behind the cold front, though light rain/drizzle could
linger across southern Georgia/Florida. Another round of
precipitation is possible across the east-central U.S. into next
weekend.

Some rain and higher elevation snow are possible across portions
of the Pacific Northwest and farther inland across the
Intermountain West and Rockies on Wednesday. Precipitation coverage
should lessen into late week, but remain across the Pacific
Northwest and the northern Rockies. Downstream, the mean
westerly/northwesterly flow will lead to high winds concerns across
the Rockies and High Plains through much of next week, with fire
weather a potential threat.

The western two-thirds of the country will mostly be warmer than
average mid to late week due to the upper ridge over the Southwest.
The Southwest into the Plains can expect temperatures of 15 to 25
degrees above average, leading to highs in the 80s in Texas at
times and over 90F in parts of the Desert Southwest. Aside from a
chilly Wednesday morning across the Northeast and Florida, the East
should generally be near average for temperatures. Then over the
weekend, an outbreak of arctic air from Canada remains in store,
which will spread below average temperatures to the north-central
U.S. and moderating temperatures to close to normal across much of
the Plains/Mississippi Valley.


Kong/Tate

Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
252 PM EST Sun Feb 22 2026

Valid 00Z Mon Feb 23 2026 - 00Z Thu Feb 26 2026

...Central Appalachians, Mid-Atlantic, through Northeast...
Days 1-2...

*** Nor'Easter rapidly develops today as it slowly shifts north
just off the Mid-Atlantic Coast. Heavy snow and blizzard
conditions are expected for the Delmarva through the Northeast
Urban Corridor into eastern New England through Monday. ***

Forecast for a major impact Nor'Easter remains on track with
significant snow and major impacts likely for areas along and east
of I-95 from the Delmarva up through Eastern New England. Surface
analysis at 18z indicates a strengthening 1001mb SLP about 70-80
miles offshore of the VA/NC border. Expectation is for this low to
undergo rapid intensification later this evening as the upper
pattern to the west begins to tilt negative and steadily close off
at 500mb and 700mb as it cuts across the state of VA, and as it
nestles within the LER of a potent 140kt upper jet max currently
pivoting east across the Carolinas. By 03z Mon, the upper levels
will begin the process of "capturing" the surface low off the Lower
Delmarva leading to the rapid intensification as the system becomes
more vertically stacked with the 850-500mb height fields coming
into alignment. By Monday morning, our surface low will be easily
into the low-mid 970s with further intensification likely as it
drifts to the northeast becoming positioned to the southeast of
Nantucket by the afternoon hours. A 1050mb surface high pressure
approaches Ontario tonight, setting up a great pressure gradient
across the Great Lakes and Northeast leading to blizzard conditions
for those along and southeast of the I-95 corridor from
Philadelphia up through NJ/LI/NYC into all of Southeast New
England.

Beginning to see heavier precip bands across the Delmarva pivoting
up into Southern NJ with any rainfall changing over to snow as
diabatic cooling processes aid in the transition from liquid to
solid hydrometeors. Areas across the Central Mid Atlantic will see
a transition from rain to snow between 20-22z as the upper level
dynamics mature and attendant height falls from the west contribute
to swift top-down cooling processes to eventually change to setup
to all snow. We'll see all snow the entire Northeast corridor by
that point leading to steady accumulations from NoVA up through New
England.

Snowfall rates really increase this evening over the Delmarva/NJ
and NYC from the combo of further low development and nocturnal
trends with 12Z HREF snow rate probabilities of at least 1"/hr
between 60-90+% over this area by 00Z with localized 2"/hr rates
across southern DE into NJ by midnight. Late night snow rates
further increase, exceeding 2.5"/hr over Long Island before
shifting to southeast New England by 09Z. Day 1-1.5 snow probs for
>12" are 70-100% from the MD part of the Delmarva through
the eastern two-thirds of Mass. Day 1-1.5 snow probs for >18" are
highest across much of NJ through LI into eastern Mass with probs
between 50-80%. One area to point out away from the area of highest
impact is across portions of NoVA into west-central MD up into
central PA where a localized, narrow band of heavy snowfall is
forecast from a maturing norlun (inverted) trough axis that will
setup well northwest of the surface low as low-level winds converge
on the outer proxy of the surface cyclone and maturing 850mb low
maturing nearby. Recent probabilities for >4" really denote this
potential with a narrow corridor of 40-70% probs over the area of
anticipated impact with ~80% across the Catoctin Mtns between
MD/PA. Rates of 1-2"/hr with large dendrite production will likely
occur in this band providing short term impacts later this evening
when it materializes.

Event peak snow rates per the HREF are 3"/hr early Monday, though
the very high winds (with gusts potentially to 70mph) will limit
the SLR, so that may not be realized, but it'll be quite impactful
snow banding with oceanic enhancement. The low then pivots towards
Nova Scotia with rates of 1-2"/hr through Monday afternoon. Monday
evening north flow from the Gulf of Maine should allow a pivoting
band of ocean enhanced snow into southeast Mass/Cape Cod further
adding to the historic snow. Day 2 snow probs for >12" are 50-70%
over eastern Mass and just off the Maine coast with 60-80% probs
for >6" from southern NH through eastern Maine and down through
eastern CT.

Upslope snow through the central Apps will occur this afternoon,
continuing through Monday evening. Snow rates generally stay below
1"/hr, but the prolonged duration leads to some significant snow
fall. Day 1-1.5 snow probs for >6" are 50-80% in the Laurels of PA
through the Allegheny Plateau of central WV.


...Cascades and Northern Rockies...
Days 1-3...

General continuity from the previous forecast...Sprawling deep low
continues to linger well off the WA coast today, directing Pacific
moisture across the Northwest CONUS. This low then shears into a
zonally oriented trough Monday which directs an atmospheric river
(AR) into OR later Monday before shunting south through northern CA
Monday night/Tuesday.

Snow levels rise today to 3500ft in the WA Cascades, 5000-6000ft
in OR, and 6500ft in far northern CA. Day 1 snow probs for >6" are
50-90% in the WA Cascades (above pass level) and the highest OR/CA
Cascades.

A tighter baroclinic zone sets up Monday with snow levels dropping
to around 2500ft at Snoqualmie Pass WA and to around 4000ft in
northwest MT while rising above 7000/8000ft in the core of the AR
in OR. Day 2 snow probs for >6" are 50% at pass level in the WA
Cascades and for the ranges of northwest MT.

The southward shift in the AR through Tuesday brings heavy precip
to northern portions of CA and the Great Basin with CA snow levels
over 9000ft with no snow impacts. Snow levels are closer to 7000ft
in NW WY and central ID where Day 3 >6" snow probs are 50-80%.


...Great Lakes...
Days 1/2...

No change to the previous forecast. Inverted trough extending
northwest from low over Lake Huron maintains NNWly flow and strong
cold air advection over Lakes Superior and Michigan today. This
expands east across Lake Erie tonight into Monday as the Nor'easter
develops off the Mid- Atlantic coast. Day 1 snow probs for >4" are
40-70% over the Porcupine and Huron Mtns as well as over far SW MI
and northern IN. Day 1.5 snow probs for >4" are 40-70% southeast
of Lake Erie in northeast OH, Erie Co PA, and Chautauqua Co NY.


Day 3...

An Alberta Clipper shift ESE from northern MN through MI Tuesday
before reaching Upstate NY Tuesday night. Warm air advection ahead
of the surface low will be into an Arctic airmass with plenty of
DGZ available for snow crystal growth. Moderate snow rates from
Lake Michigan enhancement can be expected in the eastern U.P. where
Day 3 snow probs for >6" are 40-60%. LES begins on the back side
of the clipper Tuesday night off Lake Superior, spreading across
the Great Lakes then Wednesday leading to >6" snow probs between
40-70% downwind of Superior across the central and eastern U.P. of
Michigan.

Kleebauer/Jackson


...Winter Storm Key Messages are in effect. Please see current
Key Messages below...

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/key_messages/LatestKeyMessage_1.png

Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
300 PM EST Sun Feb 22 2026

Valid 12Z Wed Feb 25 2026 - 12Z Sun Mar 01 2026


...Overview...

The medium-range period will feature an upper-level ridge axis
anchored near the West Coast while broad troughing will prevail
from the Plains eastward. A shortwave embedded within the broad
trough will eject from the northern Rockies midweek. A clipper will
then track across the central U.S. through the Northeast with
heavy rain and strong thunderstorm potentials across the Mid-South
Thursday and wintry weather potential across interior New England
on Friday. These will be followed by arctic air intrusion from the
northern Plains to the Northeast for the weekend.


...Guidance/Predictability Assessment...

Model guidance is in general agreement on the aforementioned
synoptic evolution through the medium-range. The model spread
related to the clipper ejecting out of the northern to central
Rockies midweek has improved since yesterday, with a low pressure
wave to track from the central Plains to the Ohio Valley Wednesday
to Thursday, then across New England on Friday. This trend has
slightly narrowed the area of moderate to heavy rainfall across the
Mid- South to the Ohio Valley on Thursday followed by increasing
confidence on wintry weather prospects across interior New England
with a band of sleet/freezing rain possible although details are
not yet clear at this point. The AI models have come into better
agreement with this scenario. The CMC remains the exception with a
much less developed frontal wave.

Prior to this system, models have continue to speed up a clipper
across the Great Lakes on Wednesday with northern New England
likely receiving a period of light to moderate wintry
precipitation Thursday to Friday. Behind the aforementioned frontal
wave, an outbreak of arctic air remains on track across the
northern Plains to New England through the weekend.

In the western U.S., models have continued to show a subtle/gradual
northward expansion of the upper ridge, resulting in a gradual
drying trend spreading north toward Pacific Northwest and northern
Rockies on Days 4 & 5.

The WPC forecast was based on a general model blend early in the
period, with increasing proportions of the ensemble means as the
period progressed, reaching 75% by Day 7.


...Weather/Hazards Highlights...

Modest precipitation, including northern tier snow, is forecast to
impact parts of the central and eastern U.S. on Wednesday. By
Thursday moisture is forecast to increase ahead of strong upper-
level energy moving through the central U.S. and along/ahead of a
cold front at the surface. Some instability could reach through
parts of the Southeast into the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys toward
the southern/central Appalachians. Thus rain and potentially strong
thunderstorms are forecast in those areas, with widespread amounts
likely 1-2 inches and locally higher totals. A Marginal Risk is
maintained for this area on the Day 5/Thursday ERO. Antecedent
conditions are generally neutral there (drier farther west and
farther south), but the relatively fast movement of the rain could
be a limiting factor for flooding. Meanwhile to the north, wintry
weather is likely across much of the Northeast, with snow to the
north and a band of sleet/freezing rain to the south but there
remains a fair amount of uncertainty on the low track.
Precipitation should clear across much of the Eastern Seaboard by
Friday behind the cold front, though light rain/drizzle could
linger across southern Georgia/Florida. Another round of
precipitation is possible across the east-central U.S. into next
weekend.

Some rain and higher elevation snow are possible across portions
of the Pacific Northwest and farther inland across the
Intermountain West and Rockies on Wednesday. Precipitation coverage
should lessen into late week, but remain across the Pacific
Northwest and the northern Rockies. Downstream, the mean
westerly/northwesterly flow will lead to high winds concerns across
the Rockies and High Plains through much of next week, with fire
weather a potential threat.

The western two-thirds of the country will mostly be warmer than
average mid to late week due to the upper ridge over the Southwest.
The Southwest into the Plains can expect temperatures of 15 to 25
degrees above average, leading to highs in the 80s in Texas at
times and over 90F in parts of the Desert Southwest. Aside from a
chilly Wednesday morning across the Northeast and Florida, the East
should generally be near average for temperatures. Then over the
weekend, an outbreak of arctic air from Canada remains in store,
which will spread below average temperatures to the north-central
U.S. and moderating temperatures to close to normal across much of
the Plains/Mississippi Valley.


Kong/Tate


Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids,
quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF), excessive rainfall
outlook (ERO), winter weather outlook (WWO) probabilities, heat
indices, and Key Messages can be accessed from:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ero
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ovw