Weather Prediction Center

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1223 PM EST Mon Jan 12 2026

Valid 00Z Tue Jan 13 2026 - 00Z Thu Jan 15 2026

...Well above average temperatures potentially leading to widespread
minimum records broken across Northern/Central Plains and Upper Midwest
tonight...

...Wintry weather possible for parts of the Midwest, Great Lakes and
Appalachians by mid-week...


A staunch ridge stationed over the West will promote above average
temperatures across the region this week. A shortwave impulse diving south
from central Canada will generate cloudy/warm conditions for the Great
Plains and Upper Midwest tonight. Lows in the 30s and 40s will likely
break numerous minimum temperature records for portions of the
Northern/Central Plains and Upper Midwest as a result.

The aforementioned shortwave is forecast to dive down through the
Mississippi Valley, causing the parent mid-level trough to amplify from
Hudson Bay to the Gulf Coast. At the surface, an arctic cold front will
produce lake effect snow over downwind areas of the Great Lakes beginning
Tuesday night. Wintry precipitation, the details of which are less
certain, will spread across the Appalachians and parts of the interior
Northeast beginning Wednesday night behind the cold front.


Kebede


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
232 PM EST Mon Jan 12 2026

Valid 12Z Thu Jan 15 2026 - 12Z Mon Jan 19 2026

... A complex/broad coastal low is expected to bring a wintry mix
followed by accumulating snow to portions of the Appalachians,
Mid-Atlantic, and New England Thursday/Friday...


...Guidance/Predictability Assessment...

In general, the most recent guidance were in agreement that ridging
will near the West Coast and a broad, highly amplified trough will
be in place over much of the CONUS through the extended period
with multiple energies traversing the flow. Detail challenges
persist initially for the East Coast out the interaction/ spacing
between a cold low in Quebec and a shortwave/possible upper low
moving out of the Appalachians. The system's kicker shortwave
moving towards Minnesota however is being handled well and the rest
of the evolution.

WPC's medium range 500 hPa heights/pressures/fronts progs were
created from a compromise of the deterministic guidance early,
which then saw some incorporation of the ECMWF ensemble mean, NAEFS
and GEFS means.

...Weather/Hazards Highlights...

Lake enhanced snowfall will persist as a series of shortwaves
aloft/clipper systems move within and through the broad troughing
over the Plains, Great Lakes, and East. Snow will also be possible
for the Northern Plains, Midwest, and Appalachians/Northeast. It
appears that the system will bring an initially wintry mix which
transitions to snow for portions of the Mid- Atlantic States and
New England, though the degree of snow accumulation will likely be
dependent on the depth of the upper level shortwave/low. The flow
pattern in which the Northeast system is embedded is one of greater
forecast uncertainty since it is an unusual case of trinary
interaction, and any small change in any of the two steering
systems (cold low in Quebec and kicker shortwave moving towards
Minnesota) could have significant impact on the coastal low
track/strength. Portions of the Gulf coast late should see
sufficient moisture intrusion for rain.

Below average temperatures expected for Friday and beyond for the
eastern states. Much of the West and High Plains will have above
average temperatures. There is potential for high winds for
portions of the Northern/Central Plains later in the week.
Additionally, is also some indication for enhanced wind potential
for southern California and vicinity to monitor given pressure
gradients and offshore flow.

Campbell/Roth


Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids,
quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF), excessive rainfall
outlook (ERO), winter weather outlook (WWO) probabilities, heat
indices, and Key Messages can be accessed from:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ero
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ovw

Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
349 AM EST Mon Jan 12 2026

Valid 00Z Tue 13 Jan 2026 - 00Z Tue 20 Jan 2026

An active 5 to 7 days is in store across most of the Hawaiian
islands as a series of cold fronts approaches...and occasionally
crosses...the chain. There should be moderate to occasionally
heavy showers accompanying each front (today...again Wednesday
into Thursday and early in the upcoming weekend) with fairly brief
dry intervals between frontal passages. The surface and low-level
pressure pattern looks to support breezy to windy conditions ahead
of the mid-week front.

Model agreement continued to be average to above average through
16/00Z...with increasing spread in placement and timing of mass
fields. One area of improvement in model agreement was the
development of surface low pressure along boundary near 150W by
the GFS late Thursday. That should result in a blend of the ECMWF
and GFS being a reasonable starting point.

Bann

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1234 PM EST Mon Jan 12 2026
Day 1
Valid 16Z Mon Jan 12 2026 - 12Z Tue Jan 13 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Gallina/Orrison

Day 1 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94epoints.txt

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1234 PM EST Mon Jan 12 2026
Day 2
Valid 12Z Tue Jan 13 2026 - 12Z Wed Jan 14 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Oravec

Day 2 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98epoints.txt

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1234 PM EST Mon Jan 12 2026
Day 3
Valid 12Z Wed Jan 14 2026 - 12Z Thu Jan 15 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Oravec
Day 3 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/99epoints.txt

Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
232 PM EST Mon Jan 12 2026


Lake enhanced snowfall will persist as a series of shortwaves
aloft/clipper systems move within and through the broad troughing
over the Plains, Great Lakes, and East. Snow will also be possible
for the Northern Plains, Midwest, and Appalachians/Northeast. It
appears that the system will bring an initially wintry mix which
transitions to snow for portions of the Mid- Atlantic States and
New England, though the degree of snow accumulation will likely be
dependent on the depth of the upper level shortwave/low. The flow
pattern in which the Northeast system is embedded is one of greater
forecast uncertainty since it is an unusual case of trinary
interaction, and any small change in any of the two steering
systems (cold low in Quebec and kicker shortwave moving towards
Minnesota) could have significant impact on the coastal low
track/strength. Portions of the Gulf coast late should see
sufficient moisture intrusion for rain.

Below average temperatures expected for Friday and beyond for the
eastern states. Much of the West and High Plains will have above
average temperatures. There is potential for high winds for
portions of the Northern/Central Plains later in the week.
Additionally, is also some indication for enhanced wind potential
for southern California and vicinity to monitor given pressure
gradients and offshore flow.

Campbell/Roth

Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
232 PM EST Mon Jan 12 2026


Lake enhanced snowfall will persist as a series of shortwaves
aloft/clipper systems move within and through the broad troughing
over the Plains, Great Lakes, and East. Snow will also be possible
for the Northern Plains, Midwest, and Appalachians/Northeast. It
appears that the system will bring an initially wintry mix which
transitions to snow for portions of the Mid- Atlantic States and
New England, though the degree of snow accumulation will likely be
dependent on the depth of the upper level shortwave/low. The flow
pattern in which the Northeast system is embedded is one of greater
forecast uncertainty since it is an unusual case of trinary
interaction, and any small change in any of the two steering
systems (cold low in Quebec and kicker shortwave moving towards
Minnesota) could have significant impact on the coastal low
track/strength. Portions of the Gulf coast late should see
sufficient moisture intrusion for rain.

Below average temperatures expected for Friday and beyond for the
eastern states. Much of the West and High Plains will have above
average temperatures. There is potential for high winds for
portions of the Northern/Central Plains later in the week.
Additionally, is also some indication for enhanced wind potential
for southern California and vicinity to monitor given pressure
gradients and offshore flow.

Campbell/Roth

Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
209 PM EST Mon Jan 12 2026

Valid 00Z Tue Jan 13 2026 - 00Z Fri Jan 16 2026


...Great Lakes...
Days 1-3...

Slowly amplifying flow across the east will result in periods of
light synoptic snow, and more impressive lake effect snow (LES)
through the period.

Tonight, a surface trough will track rapidly eastward across the
eastern Great Lakes and into New England while weakening. Although
this feature is progressive and of modest intensity, the enhanced
south-westerly flow in its wake will help spawn LES, especially
downwind of Lakes Erie and Ontario through Tuesday morning. Slowly
rising heights within shortwave ridging Tuesday morning will bring
a quick end to this LES, but at least briefly heavy snow rates of
1"/hr (10-20% chance) will produce significant accumulations,
especially in the Tug Hill Plateau where WPC probabilities are
moderate (50-70%) for at least 4" of snow.

Thereafter, a series of fast-moving shortwave troughs will track
southeast downstream of an amplifying ridge across the western
CONUS. This will lead to a gradually deepening trough in the east,
with increasing cold advection within impressive cyclonic flow. The
first of these shortwaves will track across MI and into northern
New England late D1 into D2, pushing a surface low along the
US/Canada border through Wednesday. Some modest WAA will spread
light synoptically forced snow from WI into MI, but with only
modest accumulations.

More impressively, this low will drag an arctic cold front
southward behind it, aided by a secondary impulse which will track
towards the Gulf Coast helping to deepen the longwave trough with a
closed low over the Great Lakes. While there has been a lot of
uncertainty and latitudinal changes with this evolution the past
few model runs, impressive CAA behind this front will result in
impressive LES, especially in the north-wind lake effect belts
across the U.P., northern L.P., and south of Lake Michigan, with
additional LES likely into northeast Ohio and the Chautauqua Ridge
during D3. WPC probabilities for more than 4" of snow D2 reach
50-70% for parts of the U.P., and then expand to southeast of Lakes
Erie and Ontario D3, with the most significant snowfall likely in a
single band southeast of Lake Michigan (with possible Lake Superior
connection) across northern IN where 8+ inches of snow is possible
(30-50% chance).


...Central Appalachians through the Northeast...
Day 3...

Amplification of the mid-level pattern through Thursday will result
in an anomalous trough digging across the eastern CONUS, reflected
by NAEFS 500-700mb heights falling below the 0.5 percentile across
portions of the Mid-South and Southeast before 00Z Friday. While
this trough is impressive, there has been considerable variability
over the past several model cycles both in terms of the intensity
and placement of the core of this trough, most notably with the
position of the closed low likely to develop Thursday morning.

This closed low will manifest from a deepening shortwave tracking
almost due south out of Manitoba, while secondary energy rotates
towards the Gulf Coast. Together, these will amplify the trough as
noted above, with the lead shortwave closing off and forcing a
slightly negative tilt by the end of the forecast period. At the
same time, a powerful jet streak will arc increasingly poleward
over the Atlantic (downstream of this trough axis) to provide
intense left-exit diffluence overlapping the impressive mid-level
height falls and divergence. While this should support a deepening
surface low pressure, guidance has systematically backed off on the
intensity and southern latitude of this low, with any secondary low
development occurring too far east to bring heavy
snowfall/precipitation to the east coast despite the lead low
moving across northern New England.

The cluster analysis (00z/11 cycle) indicates that the GEFS is
likely underdispersive into D4 as 77% of its members make up one
cluster, which is also the most amplified and slowest due to
extremely different ridging intensity over northern Ontario. While
this solution can't be ruled out entirely, the trend in the GFS
heights combined with the more broad solution envelope of the other
ensembles indicates the more likely scenario is for a low pressure
moving through New England Thursday, with modest warm air aloft
(TROWAL) pivoting behind this low coincident with weak deformation
atop an inverted trough supporting heavier snow generally from
Lake Erie through northern New England. This robust ascent may
overlap effectively with a deepening DGZ as well, with the cold
column supporting fluffy SLR that can accumulate rapidly. While
confidence remains lower than usual at this time range, current WPC
probabilities are moderate to high (50-90%) for at least 4" of
snow in the vicinity of Lake Ontario and northeast into the St.
Lawrence Valley and parts of the Adirondacks.

Farther southwest, there is higher confidence in brief but
impressive upslope snow behind the arctic front on Thursday.
Forecast soundings indicate a deepening PBL with theta-e lapse
rates around 0C/km, coincident with impressive ascent into the DGZ
and then lifting into the terrain, especially from the Laurel
Highlands south into the Southern Appalachians. Initially some of
this precipitation may be rain, but will quickly dynamically cool
(and thermally cool behind the front) leading to periods of heavy
snowfall beginning early Thursday and persisting through much of
D3. WPC probabilities have dropped a bit as QPF trends have been
more to the north, but still indicate a 30-50% chance for at least
4" of snow across the higher terrain of WV, with high probabilities
(>70% or more) for 2+ inches along most of the Appalachians from SW
NC through the Laurel Highlands of PA.


Weiss

Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
232 PM EST Mon Jan 12 2026

Valid 12Z Thu Jan 15 2026 - 12Z Mon Jan 19 2026

... A complex/broad coastal low is expected to bring a wintry mix
followed by accumulating snow to portions of the Appalachians,
Mid-Atlantic, and New England Thursday/Friday...


...Guidance/Predictability Assessment...

In general, the most recent guidance were in agreement that ridging
will near the West Coast and a broad, highly amplified trough will
be in place over much of the CONUS through the extended period
with multiple energies traversing the flow. Detail challenges
persist initially for the East Coast out the interaction/ spacing
between a cold low in Quebec and a shortwave/possible upper low
moving out of the Appalachians. The system's kicker shortwave
moving towards Minnesota however is being handled well and the rest
of the evolution.

WPC's medium range 500 hPa heights/pressures/fronts progs were
created from a compromise of the deterministic guidance early,
which then saw some incorporation of the ECMWF ensemble mean, NAEFS
and GEFS means.

...Weather/Hazards Highlights...

Lake enhanced snowfall will persist as a series of shortwaves
aloft/clipper systems move within and through the broad troughing
over the Plains, Great Lakes, and East. Snow will also be possible
for the Northern Plains, Midwest, and Appalachians/Northeast. It
appears that the system will bring an initially wintry mix which
transitions to snow for portions of the Mid- Atlantic States and
New England, though the degree of snow accumulation will likely be
dependent on the depth of the upper level shortwave/low. The flow
pattern in which the Northeast system is embedded is one of greater
forecast uncertainty since it is an unusual case of trinary
interaction, and any small change in any of the two steering
systems (cold low in Quebec and kicker shortwave moving towards
Minnesota) could have significant impact on the coastal low
track/strength. Portions of the Gulf coast late should see
sufficient moisture intrusion for rain.

Below average temperatures expected for Friday and beyond for the
eastern states. Much of the West and High Plains will have above
average temperatures. There is potential for high winds for
portions of the Northern/Central Plains later in the week.
Additionally, is also some indication for enhanced wind potential
for southern California and vicinity to monitor given pressure
gradients and offshore flow.

Campbell/Roth


Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids,
quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF), excessive rainfall
outlook (ERO), winter weather outlook (WWO) probabilities, heat
indices, and Key Messages can be accessed from:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ero
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ovw