Weather Prediction Center

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
109 PM EST Sun Feb 01 2026

Valid 00Z Mon Feb 02 2026 - 00Z Wed Feb 04 2026

...The intense surge of arctic air behind the hurricane force Northwest
Atlantic storm, will continue to usher record cold and significant wind
chills across the Southeast into Florida through early part of the week.

...An Alberta clipper will spread wintry precipitation across the Northern
Plains today and into the upper Great Lakes into tonight with a steady
warm-up afterwards...

...Weak surface low will develop across the Southern Plains with chance of
precipiation late Tuesday across Lower Mississippi Valley...

GOES-E satellite imagery shows the powerful hurricane force cyclone
continuing to strengthen across the Northwest Atlantic between Bermuda and
the Northeast U.S. as it slides into the Canadian Maritimes later today
into Monday. In the wake of the intense cyclone, bitterly cold air
continues to shatter record temperatures across the Southeast and through
the Florida Peninsula this morning. Temperatures this cold have not been
experienced across southern Florida since the record cold month of
December 1989. Extreme cold warnings are in effect across much of the
Southeast all the way down toward southern Florida where Freeze Warnings
and Cold Weather Advisories are in effect. Bundle up and cover your mouth
if you are outside, ensure pets and animals have protection from the cold,
and continue to take steps to prevent frozen pipes. A gradual moderating
trend is forecast for the eastern U.S. through the next couple of days but
record temperatures will exist across much of Florida through Monday into
early Tuesday.

Meanwhile, an Alberta Clipper is tracking across the southern Canadian
Prairies and heading into the upper Great Lakes by tonight. An associated
warm front will extend southward across the High Plains with over-running
light snow and wintry mix conditions, at the southern-most portions of the
cyclone through the eastern Dakotas and Minnesota today and Wisconsin and
Upper and Lower Michigan on Monday. Spots of 1-3" of snow are possible
and portions of the Red River Valley of ND/MN under Winter Weather
Advisories. After clearing, a quick shot of colder air will cross eastern
ND and northern MN on Monday. However, by Tuesday the area will join the
rest of the West and northern High Plains with increasingly above normal
warmth due to clearing skies and solid downslope.

A weak jet stream wave, will over-top the Rockies resulting in a weak
surface low across the Southern High Plains late on Monday. This will
help to draw some return moisture off the slowly modifying western Gulf
northward. Slow eastward progression will eventually result in some light
to moderate precipitation Tuesday evening as the system moves into the
Lower Mississippi River Valley.

In the Pacific Northwest, on and off precipitation in the form of rain in
the coastal regions, and snow/mixed precipitation in higher elevation
upslope regions is expected to continue for the next day or so, as a
series of upper-level troughs and associated weakening fronts from the
Pacific will be moving onshore. In general, this will be minor but help
to maintain/expand the well above average temperatures dominating much of
the western U.S., a stark contrast to the frigid conditions in the eastern
U.S.


Gallina/Kong


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
224 PM EST Sun Feb 1 2026

Valid 12Z Wed Feb 04 2026 - 12Z Sun Feb 08 2026


***Persistent cold temperatures are expected across much of the
Eastern U.S. going into next week***

...General Overview...

An amplified upper level flow pattern will remain in place across
the Continental U.S. through the second half of the week and into
next weekend, with multiple reinforcing shortwave troughs across
the Eastern U.S. and a building upper level ridge across the
northwestern U.S. with a +PNA pattern. This ridge axis should
breakdown some by the weekend as shortwave energy from the Pacific
moves into Washington and Oregon. A strong clipper system crosses
the Great Lakes by the end of the week with renewed chances of
snowfall from Minnesota to the Northeast U.S., with below normal
temperatures continuing across most areas east of the Mississippi
River and mild conditions out West.

...Guidance/Predictability Assessment...

The latest 00/06Z model guidance generally remains in good
agreement on the overall pattern late this upcoming week and into
the weekend with upper flow expected to re-amplify and once again
feature deep mean upper-troughing over the eastern U.S. with a
building ridge over the West. The guidance continues to come into
better agreement resolving an upper-level shortwave dropping
southward, helping to deepen the eastern U.S. trough, and leading
to a wave of low pressure developing and progressing through the
Southeast mid-week. All guidance now agrees on a less intense
system and minimal deepening of the surface low once the system
departs the East Coast. There has been some divergence in the
solutions with respect to the next system upstream, a clipper-like
system forecast to drop southeastward through the Great Lakes and
then into the Northeast. Some of the guidance, particularly the
ECMWF, shows splitting upper-level energies with a second upper-
wave taking a more northerly track into Canada, leading to a weaker
surface low with the clipper system and encouraging a secondary
surge of colder air southward. The ensemble means have picked up on
this as well. Another potential clipper-like system is hinted at
by later in the weekend, though the ECMWF differs quite a bit from
the other guidance, including the ECMWF AIFS, by showing an
additional lead shortwave and surface low ahead of a more westward
initial development along the Rockies in the other guidance.

To the west, evolution of Pacific systems approaching the upper-
ridge over the west with the potential for a southern stream cutoff
low remains complex/uncertain across the guidance, though at least
initially this has little impact on weather for the region.
Thereafter, the guidance continues to converge on a more prominent
upper-trough reaching the western U.S. and breaking down the upper-
ridge, allowing for more Pacific moisture to reach the Pacific
Northwest. The GFS, which had been an outlier maintaining the
upper-ridge, has started to trend this way as well with the 00/06Z
runs.

Good initial clustering lead to a standard composite blend of the
deterministic guidance for the first part of the updated WPC
forecast. A contribution from the GEFS mean was added towards the
middle part of the forecast period as the guidance beings to
diverge with the evolution of upper-energy associated with the next
clipper system, and the mean encapsulated the differing solutions
well. The contributions from the deterministic guidance are further
reduced with increased contributions from the GEFS/ECens mean as
differences increase with both the next potential clipper- like
system late next weekend as well as the upper-trough approaching
the West Coast. The ECMWF AIFS is used instead of the ECMWF given
the differing handling of the upper-energy ahead of this clipper
system.



...Weather/Hazards Highlights...

The main weather headline going into the second half next week
will be the extended duration of below average temperatures across
a large portion of the Eastern U.S., where persistent upper level
troughing will remain and widespread snow cover limits daytime
highs. Out West, the theme of mild conditions and lack of
significant rain or snow is expected to continue going into next
week, with drought conditions worsening in many areas. The
exception to this will be across Washington and western Oregon
where enough onshore flow should exist for periods of showers and
mountain snow late Friday and into the weekend as deeper moisture
from the Pacific is advected inland.

In terms of precipitation elsewhere, warm air advection ahead of a
cold front over the Deep South will fuel the development of more
widespread rainfall from the central Gulf Coast to the coastal
Carolinas, with perhaps some embedded thunderstorms closer to the
Florida Peninsula. There has been a general southward shift with
the main rainfall axis with this system, but no excessive rainfall
areas are currently warranted given uncertainty on the extent of
the warm sector and moisture return. Another clipper system is
likely to bring additional snows to the Great Lakes region and into
portions of New England late next week.

Putnam/Hamrick


Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids,
quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF), excessive rainfall
outlook (ERO), winter weather outlook (WWO) probabilities, heat
indices, and Key Messages can be accessed from:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ero
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ovw

Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
333 AM EST Sun Feb 1 2026

Valid 00Z Mon 02 Feb 2026 - 00Z Mon 09 Feb 2026

The Hawaiian Islands are entering a period of significant
transition as the current stagnant, light-wind regime gives way to
a more progressive winter pattern. A pair of cold fronts will
dominate the forecast period...more of a moderate system early in
the week and a potentially more potent 'Kona' style system by next
weekend.

In terms of the models, the globals are in relatively good accord
with respect to the initial frontal passage early Monday through
Tuesday. However, significant model diffs emerge during mid-to-
late next week. Given the typical winter variability and tendency
for the models to struggle with the depth of subtropical troughs,
a multi-model ensemble blend, leaning toward the ECENS and GEFS
ensembles, would be preferred.

Forecast details: In the short term, upper level support is modest
at best as the front reaches the western islands late Monday-
Monday night. Guidance continues to show a narrow band of
moderate-heavy showers along the leading edge. By late Tuesday,
the front slows considerably upon reaching the Big Island,
weakening and stalling thereafter.

During midweek (Wed into Thu), a shortwave ridge will build north
of the islands, bringing a return to more stable conditions
outside of the Big Island, where moisture along the decaying front
will linger and allow for more cloud cover and periodic showers.

By Friday into next weekend, confidence is increasing for a more
robust frontal passage. Deepening south-southwest flow will
increase Thursday night, which will draw the remnant moisture from
the previous system back northward across the islands. If the
current trends hold, this second system could bring more
widespread, heavier rainfall, and strong Kona winds across the
Islands, along with the potential mountain snow across the Big
Island summits (above 10kft).



Hurley

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
714 PM EST Sun Feb 1 2026
Day 1
Valid 01Z Mon Feb 02 2026 - 12Z Mon Feb 02 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Bann


Day 1 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94epoints.txt

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
232 AM EST Mon Feb 2 2026
Day 1
Valid 12Z Mon Feb 02 2026 - 12Z Tue Feb 03 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Kleebauer


Day 1 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94epoints.txt

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
232 AM EST Mon Feb 2 2026
Day 2
Valid 12Z Tue Feb 03 2026 - 12Z Wed Feb 04 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Kleebauer


Day 2 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98epoints.txt

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
232 AM EST Mon Feb 2 2026
Day 3
Valid 12Z Wed Feb 04 2026 - 12Z Thu Feb 05 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Kleebauer

Day 3 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/99epoints.txt

Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
224 PM EST Sun Feb 1 2026


The main weather headline going into the second half next week
will be the extended duration of below average temperatures across
a large portion of the Eastern U.S., where persistent upper level
troughing will remain and widespread snow cover limits daytime
highs. Out West, the theme of mild conditions and lack of
significant rain or snow is expected to continue going into next
week, with drought conditions worsening in many areas. The
exception to this will be across Washington and western Oregon
where enough onshore flow should exist for periods of showers and
mountain snow late Friday and into the weekend as deeper moisture
from the Pacific is advected inland.

In terms of precipitation elsewhere, warm air advection ahead of a
cold front over the Deep South will fuel the development of more
widespread rainfall from the central Gulf Coast to the coastal
Carolinas, with perhaps some embedded thunderstorms closer to the
Florida Peninsula. There has been a general southward shift with
the main rainfall axis with this system, but no excessive rainfall
areas are currently warranted given uncertainty on the extent of
the warm sector and moisture return. Another clipper system is
likely to bring additional snows to the Great Lakes region and into
portions of New England late next week.

Putnam/Hamrick

Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
224 PM EST Sun Feb 1 2026


The main weather headline going into the second half next week
will be the extended duration of below average temperatures across
a large portion of the Eastern U.S., where persistent upper level
troughing will remain and widespread snow cover limits daytime
highs. Out West, the theme of mild conditions and lack of
significant rain or snow is expected to continue going into next
week, with drought conditions worsening in many areas. The
exception to this will be across Washington and western Oregon
where enough onshore flow should exist for periods of showers and
mountain snow late Friday and into the weekend as deeper moisture
from the Pacific is advected inland.

In terms of precipitation elsewhere, warm air advection ahead of a
cold front over the Deep South will fuel the development of more
widespread rainfall from the central Gulf Coast to the coastal
Carolinas, with perhaps some embedded thunderstorms closer to the
Florida Peninsula. There has been a general southward shift with
the main rainfall axis with this system, but no excessive rainfall
areas are currently warranted given uncertainty on the extent of
the warm sector and moisture return. Another clipper system is
likely to bring additional snows to the Great Lakes region and into
portions of New England late next week.

Putnam/Hamrick

Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
213 AM EST Mon Feb 2 2026

Valid 12Z Mon Feb 02 2026 - 12Z Thu Feb 05 2026


...Pacific Northwest...
Day 1...

A weak shortwave and surface warm front will move through the
region this morning with some light snow for areas mainly above
4000ft, with snow levels rising sharply later today. WPC
probabilities for at least 4 inches of snow are >50% above 4000ft
or so.

...Great Lakes...
Day 1-1.5...

Weak system will spread slight snow across the Great Lakes (1-2")
today into Tuesday with some lake effect snow behind it, mostly
over the U.P. of Michigan. There, WPC probabilities for at least 4
inches of snow are 20-40%.

...Northern Plains...
Day 1...

A shortwave in southern Canada will dive southeastward through
North Dakota this morning, with generally light to locally modest
snow along a thermal gradient. Some banded snow could develop and
support a few inches of snow, and WPC probabilities for at least 4
inches are 30-70% over north central North Dakota.

...Ohio Valley, Central Appalachians, and Mid-Atlantic...
Days 2-3...

The shortwave over the northern Plains Day 1 (above) will dive
into the Mid-MS Valley tomorrow morning and through the Ohio Valley
tomorrow evening. At the same time, Gulf moisture will lit
northeastward through the Lower MS Valley to yield some light snow
on the northern side of the precip shield. WAA-driven snow is
likely along the Ohio River Tuesday morning eastward to the central
Appalachians tomorrow evening and into early Wednesday, also
spreading to the Mid-Atlantic. Amounts will generally be light, but
some upslope enhancement in eastern WV could yield a few inches of
snow. WPC probabilities for at least 4 inches of snow are around
30-40% above 3000ft. 1-3" of snow is possible (>50% chance) from
around Cincinnati eastward. Lower chances of just 1" are seen along
the I-95 corridor from DC to PHL, but this could coincide with the
Tuesday evening rush hour or possibly Wednesday morning depending
on the speed of the system.

Some light freezing rain or drizzle is also possible with this
wave over KY/TN into VA/NC. Any ice is hazardous, but this could be
more problematic than usual due to the recent winter storm(s).


Fracasso

Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
224 PM EST Sun Feb 1 2026

Valid 12Z Wed Feb 04 2026 - 12Z Sun Feb 08 2026


***Persistent cold temperatures are expected across much of the
Eastern U.S. going into next week***

...General Overview...

An amplified upper level flow pattern will remain in place across
the Continental U.S. through the second half of the week and into
next weekend, with multiple reinforcing shortwave troughs across
the Eastern U.S. and a building upper level ridge across the
northwestern U.S. with a +PNA pattern. This ridge axis should
breakdown some by the weekend as shortwave energy from the Pacific
moves into Washington and Oregon. A strong clipper system crosses
the Great Lakes by the end of the week with renewed chances of
snowfall from Minnesota to the Northeast U.S., with below normal
temperatures continuing across most areas east of the Mississippi
River and mild conditions out West.

...Guidance/Predictability Assessment...

The latest 00/06Z model guidance generally remains in good
agreement on the overall pattern late this upcoming week and into
the weekend with upper flow expected to re-amplify and once again
feature deep mean upper-troughing over the eastern U.S. with a
building ridge over the West. The guidance continues to come into
better agreement resolving an upper-level shortwave dropping
southward, helping to deepen the eastern U.S. trough, and leading
to a wave of low pressure developing and progressing through the
Southeast mid-week. All guidance now agrees on a less intense
system and minimal deepening of the surface low once the system
departs the East Coast. There has been some divergence in the
solutions with respect to the next system upstream, a clipper-like
system forecast to drop southeastward through the Great Lakes and
then into the Northeast. Some of the guidance, particularly the
ECMWF, shows splitting upper-level energies with a second upper-
wave taking a more northerly track into Canada, leading to a weaker
surface low with the clipper system and encouraging a secondary
surge of colder air southward. The ensemble means have picked up on
this as well. Another potential clipper-like system is hinted at
by later in the weekend, though the ECMWF differs quite a bit from
the other guidance, including the ECMWF AIFS, by showing an
additional lead shortwave and surface low ahead of a more westward
initial development along the Rockies in the other guidance.

To the west, evolution of Pacific systems approaching the upper-
ridge over the west with the potential for a southern stream cutoff
low remains complex/uncertain across the guidance, though at least
initially this has little impact on weather for the region.
Thereafter, the guidance continues to converge on a more prominent
upper-trough reaching the western U.S. and breaking down the upper-
ridge, allowing for more Pacific moisture to reach the Pacific
Northwest. The GFS, which had been an outlier maintaining the
upper-ridge, has started to trend this way as well with the 00/06Z
runs.

Good initial clustering lead to a standard composite blend of the
deterministic guidance for the first part of the updated WPC
forecast. A contribution from the GEFS mean was added towards the
middle part of the forecast period as the guidance beings to
diverge with the evolution of upper-energy associated with the next
clipper system, and the mean encapsulated the differing solutions
well. The contributions from the deterministic guidance are further
reduced with increased contributions from the GEFS/ECens mean as
differences increase with both the next potential clipper- like
system late next weekend as well as the upper-trough approaching
the West Coast. The ECMWF AIFS is used instead of the ECMWF given
the differing handling of the upper-energy ahead of this clipper
system.



...Weather/Hazards Highlights...

The main weather headline going into the second half next week
will be the extended duration of below average temperatures across
a large portion of the Eastern U.S., where persistent upper level
troughing will remain and widespread snow cover limits daytime
highs. Out West, the theme of mild conditions and lack of
significant rain or snow is expected to continue going into next
week, with drought conditions worsening in many areas. The
exception to this will be across Washington and western Oregon
where enough onshore flow should exist for periods of showers and
mountain snow late Friday and into the weekend as deeper moisture
from the Pacific is advected inland.

In terms of precipitation elsewhere, warm air advection ahead of a
cold front over the Deep South will fuel the development of more
widespread rainfall from the central Gulf Coast to the coastal
Carolinas, with perhaps some embedded thunderstorms closer to the
Florida Peninsula. There has been a general southward shift with
the main rainfall axis with this system, but no excessive rainfall
areas are currently warranted given uncertainty on the extent of
the warm sector and moisture return. Another clipper system is
likely to bring additional snows to the Great Lakes region and into
portions of New England late next week.

Putnam/Hamrick


Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids,
quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF), excessive rainfall
outlook (ERO), winter weather outlook (WWO) probabilities, heat
indices, and Key Messages can be accessed from:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ero
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ovw