WPC Day 3 Excessive Rainfall Outlook
Risk of 1 to 6 hour rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance at a point
Updated: 1952 UTC Sat Nov 16, 2019
Valid: 12 UTC Nov 18, 2019 - 12 UTC Nov 19, 2019
Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
304 PM EST Sat Nov 16 2019
Valid 12Z Mon Nov 18 2019 - 12Z Tue Nov 19 2019
The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.
Deep moisture and increasing mid level frontogenetic forcing in
advance of short wave energy crossing New England on Day 3 is
still expected to produce bands of heavy rainfall, mainly over New
Hampshire and Maine. As the low level east northeast flow
increases to greater than 40 knots, there is the potential for
banded heavy rainfall that results in rainfall amounts in excess
of 1.50 inches over portions of Maine.
However, the is little to no instability expected anywhere in the
column which will keep rainfall rates from supporting a low end
flash flood threat. This continues to be more of a flood versus
flash flood threat. Therefore, no excessive area was assigned here
for Day 3.
Day 3 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/99epoints.txt