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< Day 2 Outlook
WPC Day 3 Excessive Rainfall Outlook Risk of 1 to 6 hour rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance at a point
Updated: 2005 UTC Wed Jun 29, 2022
Valid: 12 UTC Jul 01, 2022 - 12 UTC Jul 02, 2022
Forecast Discussion
Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
417 PM EDT Wed Jun 29 2022
Day 3
Valid 12Z Fri Jul 01 2022 - 12Z Sat Jul 02 2022
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF
THE GULF COAST UP INTO THE SOUTHEAST AS WELL AS THROUGH THE
MIDWEST...
21Z update... Only minor reshaping of both Marginal Risk areas
were made for this update. Overall, the general locations where
there is an elevated threat for excessive rainfall and isolated
flash flooding have already been identified. The changes reflect
the latest WPC QPF and trends.
Campbell
...Gulf Coast into the Southeast...
A continued plume of moist southerly flow will impact areas along
the Gulf Coast bringing ample moisture with PW values peaking near
2.3". Much of this area will be impacted with rainfall during all
3 periods which will bring FFG values even lower and prime soils
for more isolated flash flooding. There is quite a bit of overlap
between all 3 periods covered in the EROs during this mornings
issuance and carrying over a Marginal for this area seemed like
the likely scenario to message the concern for repeated days of
rainfall.
...Midwest...
As a frontal boundary drapes across the Central Great Plains
increased instability and PWATs reaching 1.2-2.2" will create
periods of heavy rainfall for the region. Parts of southern
Colorado have been hit hard over the past few days with rainfall
with soil moisture sitting above the 98th percentile. Pockets of
200-600% of normal precipitation has occurred from generally an
area of southern Colorado eastward into Nebraska and parts of
Kansas. With global guidance showing 1-3" of QPF over the period
with pockets of 4+", felt a Marginal Risk area was necessary to
show the potential for isolated flooding through the period.
Chiari
Day 3 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/99epoints.txt
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