Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
856 PM EDT Fri Jun 20 2025
Day 3
Valid 12Z Sun Jun 22 2025 - 12Z Mon Jun 23 2025

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS
OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS...

Sunday is likely the beginning of what will be a multi-day period
of excessive rainfall potential over NM. The mid/upper level
pattern features a near record to record ridge over the eastern
U.S. and a well-defined longwave trough over the west. Southerly
flow in between these features will supply ample moisture to NM,
with a connection all the way to the Caribbean Sea. Thus no
surprise that forecast PWs are well over the 90th percentile, and
possibly approaching near record levels for late June. The better
forcing from the western trough should hold of until Monday and
Tuesday (see the day 4 and 5 EROs), but by Sunday we should at
least have enough moisture and instability around for isolated to
scattered convective development (which has been isolated the past
couple of days). This appears to be a solid Marginal risk with
localized flash flooding expected...and cannot rule out eventually
needing a Slight risk depending on rainfall over the next two days
and any trends in the guidance. Sometimes the first day of the
event situations can overperform as the clean start can allow for
more destabilization and greater convective coverage than expected.
However with Monday and Tuesday currently expected to be the
bigger days, will keep this day 3 as a Marginal for now and
continue to monitor trends which are a bit inconsistent between the
GFS and ECMWF suites of guidance.

Fracasso/Chenard

Day 3 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/99epoints.txt