Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
327 AM EST Fri Mar 6 2026
Day 3
Valid 12Z Sun Mar 08 2026 - 12Z Mon Mar 09 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE GULF COAST REGION...

Deep moisture...instability and the risk of excessive rainfall
should be confined to a shrinking area as a cold front makes its
way southward on Sunday. Model guidance showed a corresponding
decrease in QPF and spaghetti plots from the SREF and the GEFS
maintaining a few members with probabilities of 2 inches in the 24
hour period ending at 12Z Monday from eastern Texas eastward. This
reflected a downward trend in the deterministic QPF. During the
latter half of the period...Gulf moisture starts to return
northward over southwestern Texas later in the period...so made a
westward expansion of the Marginal risk area.

Bann

Day 3 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/99epoints.txt