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< Day 2 Outlook
 
WPC Day 3 Excessive Rainfall Outlook
Risk of 1 to 6 hour rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance at a point
 
Updated: 0844 UTC Wed Oct 17, 2018
Valid: 12 UTC Oct 19, 2018 - 12 UTC Oct 20, 2018
 
Day 3 Excessive Rainfall Forecast
 
Forecast Discussion
 
Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
427 AM EDT Wed Oct 17 2018
 
Day 3
Valid 12Z Fri Oct 19 2018 - 12Z Sat Oct 20 2018 

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF 
NORTHEAST AND SOUTH TEXAS...

As the energy from the mid-level low, which was once anchored 
across the desert southwest, has been absorbed into the digging 
northern stream trough, the mid level moisture axis from the Gulf 
will now start to veer to the northeast. This combined with the 
approaching surface front from the northwest will allow the axis 
of precipitation to migrate eastward. The best moisture flux, lift 
and surface convergence seems to align somewhere in northeast TX. 
While areal averages are only expected to top out around 1-1.5 
inches, this area has received quite a bit of rainfall as of late. 
 Lower FFG and the possibility of locally higher QPF instigated 
the MRGL in this region.  

Meanwhile, along the coast there is continual moisture feed 
(precipitable waters of 2+ inches) with an instability axis 
lagging just onshore.  This will result in convection that could 
train over the same region right along coast, collocated with 
surface convergence. Areal averages of 1.5-2 inches would likely 
not promote flooding concerns within this region, but given 
previous days potential convective activity, it could cause 
issues.  Therefore, a MRGL was also introduced in this area. 

Pagano
 
Day 3 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/99epoints.txt
 

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