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< Day 2 Outlook
 
WPC Day 3 Excessive Rainfall Outlook
Risk of 1 to 6 hour rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance at a point
 
Updated: 1904 UTC Mon Feb 17, 2025
Valid: 12 UTC Feb 19, 2025 - 12 UTC Feb 20, 2025
 
Day 3 Excessive Rainfall Forecast
 
Forecast Discussion
Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
542 PM EST Mon Feb 17 2025
Day 3
Valid 12Z Wed Feb 19 2025 - 12Z Thu Feb 20 2025

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTHERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA...

...21Z Outlook Update...
A convective complex should be ongoing across southeastern
Louisiana and adjacent north-central Gulf waters at the beginning
of the forecast period. This complex will migrate eastward toward
the Florida Panhandle and vicinity throughout the morning hours,
although heavier rainfall should remain offshore due to a lack of
inland instability. Light/modest rain rates are expected across
most of the Southeastern U.S. downstream of the complex, and models
have trended lower with QPF especially through northeastern
Florida.

Given the latest trends, the Marginal Risk previously in effect has
been confined to areas from southeastern Louisiana through the western
Florida Panhandle closer to where the best instability should
reside.

See the previous discussion for more information.

Cook

...Previous Discussion...

Surface low developing along the central Gulf Coast on Day 2 will
continue to track east early in the period, before tracking
northeast along the Southeast Coast later in the day. Training
storms, with potentially heavy rainfall rates fueled by deep
moisture (PWs 1.5-1.75 inches) ahead of the wave and along its
trailing cold front, may produce locally heavy amounts and an
isolated flash flooding threat on Wednesday.

Pereira
Day 3 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/99epoints.txt
 

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