Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
417 PM EDT Wed Apr 24 2019
 
Day 3
Valid 12Z Fri Apr 26 2019 - 12Z Sat Apr 27 2019 

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM 
APPALACHIAN REGION TO THE NORTHEAST...

...2030Z Update...
Only several minor changes were needed to the on-going Marginal 
Risk area.

...Previous Discussion...
The deep moisture associated with the heavy rain over the Gulf 
Coast on Days 1-2 will continue to stream northward as the leading 
surface cyclone tracks north and east from  the Tennessee/Ohio 
Valley to the Northeast. Organized convection is expected to 
develop along and east of the trailing cold front, spreading rain 
from the southern Appalachian chain northward into northern New 
England. FFG is fairly low for much of these regions with 3-hr 
guidance as low as 1 to 2 in the Mountains and 0.75 ti 1.50 inches 
in the Northeast. There is a multiple model signal suggesting this 
sector could receive more than 1 inch, which would meet or exceed 
local FFG. A Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall with an 
increased threat for flash flooding was introduced from western 
North Carolina to central/Downeast Maine.

Campbell/Bann

 
Day 3 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/99epoints.txt