Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
423 AM EDT Sat Oct 17 2026
Day 3
Valid 12Z Mon Oct 19 2026 - 12Z Tue Oct 20 2026

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ALONG THE NORTH
CAROLINA OUTER BANKS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...

Numerical guidance continues ti show an area of low pressure
offshore, there has been high run to run variability in the east-
to-west placement of the low and its associated rainfall. That will
dictate whether heavy rain makes it onshore or not. The 17/00Z GFS
inched closer to the Outer Banks while the 17/00Z ECMWF headed
farther out to sea showing the predictability of this system
improved little. The 17/00Z ECMWF AIFS and 17/00Z AIGFS remained
supportive of their control/operational runs respectively. As a
result...the Marginal Risk remained largely unchanged from
continuity.

Bann

Day 3 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/99epoints.txt