Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
418 AM EDT Mon Jul 22 2019
 
Day 3
Valid 12Z Wed Jul 24 2019 - 12Z Thu Jul 25 2019 

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS 
OF FLORIDA AND GEORGIA AS WELL AS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...

...Northern FL/Southeastern GA...

A surface front will become stalled across the region and off the 
southeast coast early Wednesday. With a decent moisture and 
instability gradient present combined with mid-level impulses 
riding atop the aforementioned surface boundary, convection will 
likely develop with efficient rain makers.  Precipitable water 
values of 2+ inches will be transported by 15-25 knot 
southwesterly winds.  Marginal MUCAPE values of 1000+ J/kg is 
noted across this region Wednesday afternoon.  Within the upper 
levels, the jet streak will slowly sink south allowing the right 
entrance region to become positioned over southern GA into 
northern FL, promoting additional lift.  Mean wind around 20 knots 
from the southwest will become aligned with corfidi vectors in 
terms of both speed and magnitude for a period of time Wednesday 
afternoon/evening which could result in convective training.  As a 
result, isolated flash flooding is possible, with high flash flood 
guidance taken into account.  Therefore, only a Marginal Risk was 
introduced.   

...Southern Rockies...

Mid/low-level moisture, easterly upslope flow and marginal 
instability will continue to promote convective initiation along 
the higher terrain of CO/NM Wednesday afternoon/evening.  With mid 
level high pressure anchored over the four-corners region and weak 
impulses rounding the ridge, anticipate this will promote 
additional lift across this region.  Convection developing along 
the slopes may be slow to move off the terrain, but looks as if 
there may be a bit more storm motion than seen in previous days.  
Regardless, heavy rainfall is possible with some of these storms 
which if over residual burn scars could result in localized 
flooding.  Therefore, a Marginal Risk was added for this region.  


Pagano
 
Day 3 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/99epoints.txt