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< Day 2 Outlook
WPC Day 3 Excessive Rainfall Outlook
Risk of 1 to 6 hour rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance at a point
Updated: 2005 UTC Fri Apr 19, 2024
Valid: 12 UTC Apr 21, 2024 - 12 UTC Apr 22, 2024
Day 3 Excessive Rainfall Forecast
Forecast Discussion
Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
406 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024
Day 3
Valid 12Z Sun Apr 21 2024 - 12Z Mon Apr 22 2024


...2030Z Excessive Rainfall Discussion...
A Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall remains in place along
portions of the central Gulf coast of Sunday as low pressure and an
associated cold front approaches from the north. With good run to
run continuity in the model mass fields and deterministic QPF from
the 12Z suite of numerical guidance and WPC...saw little reason to
make more than a couple of minor adjustments to the
northern/western boundary of the risk area.


...0830Z Excessive Rainfall Discussion...

Convection ongoing Sunday morning across far east Texas and the
Arklamiss will move eastward into the rest of Louisiana. While the
storms will be weakening in the most climatologically-hostile time
of day for the storms, expect the abundant moisture from the
eastward shifting LLJ will still support storms capable of locally
heavy rain. Recent rainfall events have made portions of eastern
Louisiana more sensitive to flooding, along with urban concerns
around New Orleans. The New Orleans metro is the highest concern
within the broader Marginal. The LLJ will move eastward more
quickly through Sunday afternoon, which with increasing westerly
flow will allow the storms to also move more quickly eastward with
time. Thus, the flash flooding threat Sunday night will be greatly
diminished into Alabama, the Florida Panhandle and Georgia. Thus,
the Marginal risk for southern Georgia and adjacent Florida and
Alabama was removed with this update. Any heavy rainfall will
likely be over or moving much too quickly across Georgia by Sunday
night to pose a flooding threat, so the Marginal is largely for the
daylight hours on Sunday.



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