Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
417 PM EDT Wed Jun 29 2022
 
Day 3
Valid 12Z Fri Jul 01 2022 - 12Z Sat Jul 02 2022 

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF 
THE GULF COAST UP INTO THE SOUTHEAST AS WELL AS THROUGH THE 
MIDWEST...

21Z update... Only minor reshaping of both Marginal Risk areas 
were made for this update. Overall, the general locations where 
there is an elevated threat for excessive rainfall and isolated 
flash flooding have already been identified. The changes reflect 
the latest WPC QPF and trends.

Campbell

...Gulf Coast into the Southeast...
A continued plume of moist southerly flow will impact areas along 
the Gulf Coast bringing ample moisture with PW values peaking near 
2.3". Much of this area will be impacted with rainfall during all 
3 periods which will bring FFG values even lower and prime soils 
for more isolated flash flooding. There is quite a bit of overlap 
between all 3 periods covered in the EROs during this mornings 
issuance and carrying over a Marginal for this area seemed like 
the likely scenario to message the concern for repeated days of 
rainfall. 

...Midwest...
As a frontal boundary drapes across the Central Great Plains 
increased instability and PWATs reaching 1.2-2.2" will create 
periods of heavy rainfall for the region. Parts of southern 
Colorado have been hit hard over the past few days with rainfall 
with soil moisture sitting above the 98th percentile. Pockets of 
200-600% of normal precipitation has occurred from generally an 
area of southern Colorado eastward into Nebraska and parts of 
Kansas. With global guidance showing 1-3" of QPF over the period 
with pockets of 4+", felt a Marginal Risk area was necessary to 
show the potential for isolated flooding through the period.

Chiari

 
Day 3 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/99epoints.txt