< Day 2 Outlook
WPC Day 3 Excessive Rainfall Outlook
Risk of 1 to 6 hour rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance at a point
Updated: 0809 UTC Wed Jul 28, 2021
Valid: 12 UTC Jul 30, 2021 - 12 UTC Jul 31, 2021
Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
406 AM EDT Wed Jul 28 2021
Valid 12Z Thu Jul 29 2021 - 12Z Fri Jul 30 2021
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS INTO MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
...SOUTHWEST INTO NORTHERN ROCKIES...
Monsoonal moisture will continue to impact the Southwest CONUS
northward into portions of the Northern Rockies. PW values
continue to sit near 1.75 inches for much of this area and with
antecedent conditions making soils even more susceptible to
flooding, confidence in additional flooding events continues into
the day 3 time period. A Marginal Risk was put into effect
...CENTRAL PLAINS INTO MID MS VALLEY...
Troughing across the region coupled with modest instability will
increase chances of heavy rounds of precipitation with convection
and training storms. PW values sit near 2.0 inches during this
time period with MU CAPE values sitting near 2000 J/kg. FFG is on
the higher end for some of these areas and steering flow is on the
faster end, however the possibility of training is the main
concern with some of these storms expected to drop heavier
amounts. Guidance is wavering a bit on where to place the swath of
precipitation and as such, confidence in placement for the
Marginal Risk for this area is on the lower end. Adjustments will
likely be made as newer guidance comes in and hopefully a better
handle on where the band of precipitation will set up.
Day 3 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/99epoints.txt