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WPC Day 2 Excessive Rainfall Outlook
Risk of 1 to 6 hour rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance at a point
Updated: 0800 UTC Thu Nov 30, 2023
Valid: 12 UTC Dec 01, 2023 - 12 UTC Dec 02, 2023
Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
832 AM EST Thu Nov 30 2023
Valid 12Z Fri Dec 01 2023 - 12Z Sat Dec 02 2023
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF COAST AND THE SOUTHEAST...
The area of convection from day 1 will shift east along the Gulf
Coast into western portions of the Southeast U.S.
Convergence along an approaching cold front within the confines of
a anomalously moist environment will generate locally heavy
rainfall with flash flood concerns over any urbanized settings.
The primary focus has been over southern Alabama into the Florida
Panhandle where the instability axis will be greatest and
convective regimes could produce 1-2 inches/hour rainfall with
locally up to 3 inches/hour near the coastal areas. The latest
guidance suggested a small shift in the QPF axis northward
further into central Alabama which in turn caused an uptick of QPF
for eastern Louisiana. A growing consensus of somewhere within the
Marginal bounds could pick up 3-5 inches of rainfall over the
course of the period. The Marginal Risk that was already in effect
largely covers the area of concern. With the northward trend in
the latest guidance and WPC forecast, the western bounds of the
Marginal was expanded to include parts of southeast Louisiana and
northward across eastern Alabama/western Georgia.
Day 2 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98epoints.txt