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WPC Day 2 Excessive Rainfall Outlook Risk of 1 to 6 hour rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance at a point
Updated: 2000 UTC Wed Jun 29, 2022
Valid: 12 UTC Jun 30, 2022 - 12 UTC Jul 01, 2022
Forecast Discussion
Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
453 PM EDT Wed Jun 29 2022
Day 2
Valid 12Z Thu Jun 30 2022 - 12Z Fri Jul 01 2022
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF
THE WESTERN GULF COAST...
...Western Gulf Coast into the Central Gulf Coast...
21Z update... The QPF across the western/central Gulf Coast
continues to have an increasing trend and the new WPC QPF ranges
from 2 to 7 inches; the bulk of the higher amounts are expected to
fall between the Corpus Christi and Houston metros. Some of the
CAMs are indicating rainfall rates upwards of 3 to 4 inches/hour
which could easily exceed the 3-hr FFG of 3 to 5 inches across the
Gulf Coast. In coordination with the local forecast offices, an
upgrade to a Slight Risk was made.
Campbell
Low pressure system that has been spinning through the Gulf makes
it's way onshore by this period bringing with it ample moisture
and potential for heavy rainfall. Models have started to converge
on the heavier QPF amounts leaking onshore through portions of
southeast Texas. Upwards of 2-4" with some models indicating even
higher amounts during the 24-hr period are expected. PWATS peak
around 2.4" for the period well above the 90th percentile for this
time of year. Steering flow is around 25-35 kts which may push
cells along at a quicker pace, but should we see any training
storms in the region, flooding concerns will certainly arise.
...Southwest into the Central Great Basin...
21Z update... The Monsoonal moisture is progged to move further
into the Plains and as such the new WPC QPF has increased.
Convection tracking from the Front Range into Nebraska and Kansas
may produce heavy showers with rates of 0.50 inch/hour or greater.
The 3-hr FFG is as low as 2 inches and these rates may reach or
exceed local FFG. The Marginal Risk was expanded eastward to
encompass portions of southwest Nebraska and northwest Kansas.
Campbell
A plume of moisture will continue to impact the region as a moist
southwesterly flow sets up. Precipitable water values nearing 1.4"
will stream into an area previously hit with heavy rainfall and
flash flooding. Much of the area sits above 98% soil moisture and
well into 600%+ of normal precipitation over the past week. QPF
amounts alone during this period do not overly impress, but given
the antecedent conditions and burn scars throughout the region,
flooding will still pose a threat going into the day 2 period.
Portions of eastern Arizona will see rainfall during the day 1
time period which when combined with the additional rainfall
expected on day 2, will only prime soils even more for the
potential for flooding.
...Southwest Florida...
21Z update... Over the Marginal Risk area still highlights the
locations with an elevated threat for isolated flash flooding.
Minor reshaping of the boundary was made to reflect the latest WPC
guidance.
Campbell
Slow moving cells pushing over more urbanized areas will bring a
continued threat into the day 2 period for portions of southwest
Florida. PW values peak near 2.25" well above the 90th percentile
for this time of year. Pockets of 600+% of normal precipitation
has been observed over the past week for areas within the Marginal
Risk area and will be more susceptible to isolated flooding
concerns through the period.
Chiari
Day 2 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98epoints.txt
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