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< Day 1 Outlook Day 3 Outlook >
 
WPC Day 2 Excessive Rainfall Outlook
Risk of 1 to 6 hour rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance at a point
 
Updated: 2016 UTC Sun Sep 20, 2020
Valid: 12 UTC Sep 21, 2020 - 12 UTC Sep 22, 2020
 
Day 2 Excessive Rainfall Forecast
 
Forecast Discussion
 
Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
423 PM EDT Sun Sep 20 2020
 
Day 2
Valid 12Z Mon Sep 21 2020 - 12Z Tue Sep 22 2020 

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS THE 
MIDDLE AND UPPER TEXAS COAST...

...2130 UTC Excessive Rainfall Outlook Discussion...
Given a fairly consistent track for Beta from NHC, the 
modifications needed to the QPF were fairly minor early in the Day 
2 Excessive Rainfall Outlook as the storm slowly approaches the 
coast.  By 22/00Z, the storm was forecast to be right along the 
Middle Texas Coast when it slows it westward motion and begins a 
turn towards the northeast.  The resulting slow storm motion 
leaves the Upper Texas coast in peristent onshore flow and 
rainbands.  At this point, still think a Moderate Risk is 
appropriate given the combined rainfall forecast for Day 1 and Day 
2.  One big concern is a burst of convection on the west side of 
Beta during Sunday afternoon...which may ultimately result in a 
discontinuious jump in the center of Beta and what implications 
this has on the track/timing of the system.  It may require 
significant shift in QPF with a corresponding shift in the concern 
for excessive rainfall. 

Bann


...0830 UTC Excessive Rainfall Outlook Discussion...

...Texas/Louisiania...
The main flash flood threat remains tied directly to Beta, and the 
WPC QPF and Excessive Rainfall Forecast were based on the most 
recent NHC track, which is close to the 00z model suite consensus.

There is better consensus on a landfall for the system along the 
Middle TX coast later in the period. Along and ahead of the 
system, banded convection affects the Mid and Upper TX coast, 
producing hourly rainfall rates of 2.00/3.00 inches possible 
(within 2.25/2.50 inch precipitable water moisture plume). Banding 
comes ashore across Upper TX coast into coastal southwest LA 
later, as the low level inflow lags the center to some degree.  
Much of the 00z model guidance (including high resolution 
guidance) indicated a general 4.00/8.00 inch rainfall near the 
landfall location, with the 00z NAM CONUS Nest showing local 10.00 
inch amounts. These higher end amounts are possible where training 
occurs as Beta begins to slow.

There was a near unanimous signal from the 00z guidance suite that 
the moisture from Beta gets inland, and begins to slowly erode, as 
drier air starts to become involved with Beta from the north and 
west, particularly after 22/00z. Beta is expected to feel the 
influence of a mid and upper level trough crossing the Southern 
Plains, which is expected to turn Beta to the northeast and east 
during Day 2. This turn could limit the northern extent of the 
higher rainfall amounts. 

With much of the guidance showing more of an easterly landfall 
position, the highest rainfall amounts with Beta were spread 
further along the Mid and Upper TX coast. Based on that, and the 
expected turn with Beta, a Moderate Risk was extended across much 
of this area (which was collaborated with WFOs CRP/HGX). Should 
there be track changes further up the TX coast, the Moderate Risk 
could move a bit to accommodate.  

Further north across north TX, there could be an enhanced area of 
rainfall as moisture in the deep easterly flow north of Beta 
interacts with lift in the right entrance region of a 50 knot jet 
streak tracking across the Southern Plains. Model soundings show 
almost no instability in the column, and it appears as though 
frontogenetic forcing in the absence of elevated instability 
becomes the main driver of banded heavy rainfall. A Slight Risk 
was considered for this area, as some of the high resolution 
guidance showed 4.00+ inch rainfall amounts. Since instability is 
expected to be lacking, the area was included in a larger Marginal 
Risk (which was collaborated with WFO FWD). 

Hayes
 
Day 2 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98epoints.txt
 

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