< Day 1 Outlook
Day 3 Outlook >
WPC Day 2 Excessive Rainfall Outlook
Risk of 1 to 6 hour rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance at a point
Updated: 0808 UTC Wed Jul 28, 2021
Valid: 12 UTC Jul 29, 2021 - 12 UTC Jul 30, 2021
Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
406 AM EDT Wed Jul 28 2021
Valid 12Z Wed Jul 28 2021 - 12Z Thu Jul 29 2021
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS
...Southwest into the Northern Rockies...
Monsoonal moisture will continue to cause flooding concerns for
portions of the Southwest northward into the Northern Rockies. Low
FFG and periods of rain leading up to this period all lead to
concerns for flooding. Both the Slight Risk area and the Marginal
Risk area were adjusted to account for latest model guidance and
updated QPF forecast. PW values continue to exceed 1.00 inches
with anomalies reaching 2.5-3 std deviations above climo for these
...Northeast south through the Ohio Valley...
The upper trough will continue to bring periods of heavy rains to
this region with latest guidance showing signals of 1 to 3 inches.
Much of this area sits near 150-400% of normal for precipitation
in the past few weeks and with antecedent conditions priming soils
even more, flooding could be of concern for this period. PW values
sit near 1.5-1.75 inches for much of this area during this time.
...Eastern Florida coastline...
Tropical moisture will continue to pump into the region creating
periods of heavy rainfall. PW values remain near 2.25 inches
during this timeframe with latest model guidance showing signals
of 2 to 4 inches. Urban areas will be the most susceptible to
flooding during this time period.
Day 2 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98epoints.txt