Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
832 AM EST Thu Nov 30 2023
 
Day 2
Valid 12Z Fri Dec 01 2023 - 12Z Sat Dec 02 2023 

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF 
THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF COAST AND THE SOUTHEAST...

The area of convection from day 1 will shift east along the Gulf 
Coast into western portions of the Southeast U.S.
Convergence along an approaching cold front within the confines of 
a anomalously moist environment will generate locally heavy 
rainfall with flash flood concerns over any urbanized settings. 
The primary focus has been over southern Alabama into the Florida 
Panhandle where the instability axis will be greatest and 
convective regimes could produce 1-2 inches/hour rainfall with 
locally up to 3 inches/hour near the coastal areas. The latest 
guidance suggested a small shift  in the QPF axis northward 
further into central Alabama which in turn caused an uptick of QPF 
for eastern Louisiana. A growing consensus of somewhere within the 
Marginal bounds could pick up 3-5 inches of rainfall over the 
course of the period. The Marginal Risk that was already in effect 
largely covers the area of concern. With the northward trend in 
the latest guidance and WPC forecast, the western bounds of the 
Marginal was expanded to include parts of southeast Louisiana and 
northward across eastern Alabama/western Georgia.

Campbell/Kleebauer
 
Day 2 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98epoints.txt