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< Day 1 Outlook Day 3 Outlook >
 
WPC Day 2 Excessive Rainfall Outlook
Risk of 1 to 6 hour rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance at a point
 
Updated: 0843 UTC Wed Oct 17, 2018
Valid: 12 UTC Oct 18, 2018 - 12 UTC Oct 19, 2018
 
Day 2 Excessive Rainfall Forecast
 
Forecast Discussion
 
Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
427 AM EDT Wed Oct 17 2018
 
Day 2
Valid 12Z Thu Oct 18 2018 - 12Z Fri Oct 19 2018 

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF 
CENTRAL AND SOUTH TEXAS...

...Central to Southern Texas...
A closed mid level low across the southwest will lift northeast as 
a digging northern stream trough dives into the upper Midwest.  
Low level ridging across the central CONUS will edge eastward as 
the trough approaches.  This setup will continue to supply 
anomalously high deep layer moisture into TX.  Meanwhile at the 
surface an inverted trough orthogonal to the TX coast in 
conjunction with an instability axis across the west Gulf will 
promote offshore convection to potentially move onshore through 
Day 2.  

One of the areas of interest is across central TX where strong 
moisture flux intersects with surface convergence along the 
inverted trough. With precipitable water values 2+ inches (2-2.5 
standard deviations above the mean), mid-level convergence and 
decent mid/upper level lift will manage to squeeze out 
precipitation over potentially the same area resulting in higher 
QPF totals in this region. Confidence on QPF totals in this region 
is below average.  A lot depends on mesoscale features that are 
tough to discern this far out.  

The second area of interest is along the coast as convection from 
surface convergence and the aforementioned instability axis just 
offshore steering inland.  Some model guidance suggests the 
convection will stay offshore, while some others show the activity 
moving just inland.  While the current thinking based on the 
strength of the onshore flow is for some convection to eventually 
work inland, but perhaps lose its convective characteristics as 
these clusters move further north with more mid-level support.  
Similar to the SLGHT in central TX, confidence on higher QPF 
moving inland is below average.  


Pagano
 
Day 2 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98epoints.txt
 

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