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WPC Day 2 Excessive Rainfall Outlook Risk of 1 to 6 hour rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance at a point
Updated: 1903 UTC Mon Feb 17, 2025
Valid: 12 UTC Feb 18, 2025 - 12 UTC Feb 19, 2025
Forecast Discussion
Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
542 PM EST Mon Feb 17 2025
Day 2
Valid 12Z Tue Feb 18 2025 - 12Z Wed Feb 19 2025
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ALONG PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...
...21Z Outlook Update...
Recent models (and particularly CAMs) depict substantially
increased rainfall potential (into the 2-4 inch range) late
Tuesday into early Wednesday across southern Louisiana, with a
greater focus for training convection near Lake Charles
around/after 00Z. A Slight Risk was considered for this update, but
concerns about antecedent ground conditions (dry soils, lack of
rainfall) and confidence in the specific axes of heavier rainfall
were mitigating factors. The Marginal Risk was expanded
northwestward toward east Texas and west/northwest Louisiana where
soils were wetter and convergence on the nose of 850mb flow could
result in a few heavier downpours and isolated runoff issues.
See the previous discussion below for more information.
Cook
...Previous Discussion...
Strengthening southwesterly winds ahead an amplifying upper level
shortwave and an associated cold front are expected to draw deeper
moisture into parts of the Gulf Coast, with PWs climbing to around
1.5 inches. This moisture along with increasing lift and
instability may be sufficient for heavy rainfall rates. Models
offer a modest signal for training storms ahead of a surface low
that is forecast to develop and advance east along the coast
Wednesday morning. This may help support localized heavy rainfall,
with some potential for isolated flash flooding, especially in
urbanized areas.
Pereira
Day 2 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98epoints.txt
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