Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 AM EDT Fri May 8 2026
Day 2
Valid 12Z Sat May 09 2026 - 12Z Sun May 10 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST INTO THE SOUTHEAST...

The previously noted shortwave moving into West Texas on Day 1 is
forecast to move eastward along the central Gulf Coast on Saturday.
While lingering deep moisture will remain in place, the synoptic
signal for organized and widespread heavy rainfall becomes
significantly more diffuse. Current model guidance lacks a
concentrated signal for high-end totals, suggesting a more isolated
or low-end flash flood threat. Given the environment and the
potential for antecedent conditions driven the previous day's heavy
rains, the current Marginal Risk was maintained for this cycle. But
should model trends continue to show a lack of organization, this
area may be discontinued in future updates.

Pereira

Day 2 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98epoints.txt