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< Day 1 Outlook Valid Through 12Z Today
Day 2 Outlook >
WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook Risk of 1 to 6 hour rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance at a point
Updated: 0818 UTC Thu Mar 28, 2024
Valid: 12 UTC Mar 28, 2024 - 12 UTC Mar 29, 2024
Forecast Discussion
Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
417 AM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024
Day 1
Valid 12Z Thu Mar 28 2024 - 12Z Fri Mar 29 2024
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA...
...Eastern North Carolina - Southeastern Virginia...
An upper trough moving over the lower Mississippi Valley and
northern Gulf will begin to assume a negative tilt as it moves into
the Southeast today. Right-entrance region upper jet forcing will
support a deepening low that will track north along the Southeast
to the southern Mid-Atlantic coast later this morning. This will
support continued southwest to northeast training showers and
thunderstorms into the afternoon, with additional heavy rainfall
amounts expected over the region. Although instability will be
limited, strong forcing interacting with sufficient moisture (PWs
1.25-1.5 inches) will be enough to support rainfall rates up 1
inch/hour and accumulations 1-3 inches. HREF neighborhood
probabilities indicate that additional totals of 2 inches or more
are likely within the Slight Risk area. These amounts on top of
wet antecedent conditions can be expected to cause additional
runoff concerns.
...New England...
As the previously noted low develops and approaches from the south,
a slow-moving front will provide the focus for deepening moisture
and soaking rains across much of coastal New England. Overall,
models have remained consistent in showing a long stripe of 1-3
inch amounts extending from eastern Connecticut to DownEast Maine.
Rainfall rates will be limited by a lack instability, likely
topping out near 0.25 inch/hour. However, given the recent rainfall
and saturated soils, there remain some runoff concerns, promoting
the continuation of a Marginal Risk.
Pereira
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