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< Day 1 Outlook Valid Through 12Z Today Day 2 Outlook >
WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook
Risk of 1 to 6 hour rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance at a point
Updated: 0819 UTC Fri Jul 19, 2024
Valid: 12 UTC Jul 19, 2024 - 12 UTC Jul 20, 2024
Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Forecast
Forecast Discussion
Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
428 AM EDT Fri Jul 19 2024
Day 1
Valid 12Z Fri Jul 19 2024 - 12Z Sat Jul 20 2024



The cold front from the past few days will become quasi-stationary
across the Carolinas with a strong low-level convergence signature
focused from Northeast NC down through Central SC in the Piedmont.
Areal PWATs are sufficient for heavy rainfall potential with
anomalies nestled between 1-1.5 deviations above normal with values
between 1.8-2.2" focused over the above area. Current mean QPF is
right around 1-1.5" with some smaller maxima located across
multiple portions of the Carolinas which is reflective of the
overall convective environment. The primary signature of note for
the potential is heavily based in the latest probability fields
with EAS signatures between 25-40% for at least 1" present through
much of the Eastern Carolinas with the max confined to the eastern
extent of the Piedmont down to around Columbia, an urban area more
prone for flash flooding historically. Neighborhood probabilities
for at least 3" show multiple areas between 50-70% with another max
located within the escarpment of SC/NC/TN where models are
depicting some terrain focused convection later this afternoon.
There are some minor signals for at least 5" totals within the
confines of the Eastern Carolinas as well signaling a general
maximum of up to 6" in any cells. Area hodographs indicate a weak
steering pattern which would lead to either slow moving, or even
stationary storms that could enhance the local threat further as
the storm motions would only be accelerated through outflow
propagation. The SLGT risk from the previous forecast was
maintained with some expansion over the northern and southern
fringes to match the recent trends within the probability fields.

...Southern Rockies...

General persistence will create another day of locally heavy
rainfall threats located within the Southern Rockies with a
southern expansion down closer to the NM Bootheel as noted within
the convective QPF footprint. The area will see another round of
diurnally driven convection with more mid-level perturbations
rounding the eastern flank of the ridge, moving overhead during the
peak of diurnal heating. This will create an enhancement within the
large scale ascent pattern along with the already favorable
instability field with the theta-E ridge bisecting much of Central
and Northern NM. Local totals of 1-2" with a few spots seeing
higher amounts are forecast across the terrain down into the
northern extent of the Bootheel near Gila National Forest.
Probabilities for at least 1" are relatively higher when gauging
the neighborhood probability output with some scattered signals for
at least 2" in portions of Central NM. The combination of multi-day
impact within complex terrain and remnant burn scars exacerbating
the flash flood concerns was plenty of reason to extend the SLGT
risk maintain general continuity.


Day 1 threat area:

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