Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service College Park MD
748 PM EDT Wed Jun 24 2026

Valid 12Z Sun 28 Jun 2026 - 12Z Thu 02 Jul 2026


...General Overview...

There will be a continued wildfire threat for portions 
of the Interior thanks for east-southeast flow and thunderstorm 
potential. A couple of closed upper lows expected to track through
Southwest/southern Alaska which will foster possible heavy rain 
from the Alaska Range toward the Yukon Flats, with heavy snow 
potential for the highest elevations across the Alaska Range.


...Guidance Evaluation... 

The large scale pattern continues to be in fair agreement with
multiple closed lows tracking across the Aleutians through 
southern Alaska/Gulf. Once again, the latest suite of guidance
show varying degrees of progressiveness and depth of the closed 
low progged to approach the Aleutians thus maintaining some
uncertainty to local impacts and sensible weather. Continuity was
maintained by utilizing a general model blend of the 12z ECMWF/EC
AIFS, 12z UKMET, 12z Canadian, and 12z GFS early before using 
increasing amounts of the 12z GEFS and 00z ECMWF ensemble mean 
for the pressures, 500 hPa heights, fronts, and winds. The 
remainder of the grids primarily used the 19z NBM. QPF was 
magnified some using the deterministic guidance.


...Weather/Hazards Highlights...

Daily scattered to possibly widespread afternoon/evening showers 
and thunderstorms are expected. Lightning with thunderstorms will 
bring a wildfire/fire weather threat. A system approaching 
the the Aleutians promises more rain and gale force winds with 
possible storm-force gusts. It could contain the remains or be the
post- tropical cyclone version of what is currently Typhoon 
Mekkhala well south of Japan.

Temperatures are expected to rise into the mid 70s of some
location across Northwest Alaska. A heavy precipitation threat 
area was depicted from the 27th through the 28th in and near the 
Alaska Range with heavy rainfall extending northward from the
Alaska Range toward the Yukon Flats. Should the guidance trend 
stronger with the system approaching the Aleutians early next 
week, a high wind threat may be necessary.

Campbell

Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC 
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface
fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be
found at:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html