Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service College Park MD
703 PM EDT Sat May 9 2026

Valid 12Z Wed 13 May 2026 - 12Z Sun 17 May 2026


...General Overview...

A moderately strong surface low is expected to be in place across
the Alaska Peninsula by the middle of the week, and moist 
southerly flow to the east of this low over the northern Gulf will
likely result in enhanced rain and mountain snow for the southern
coastal areas through Wednesday morning. This low then weakens, 
and another low is expected to follow towards the end of the week
and next weekend, and approach the northern Gulf with additional 
precipitation likely, although specifics remain highly uncertain. It
will remain cold north of the Brooks Range, while areas to the 
south across the Interior are pleasantly mild.


...Guidance Evaluation/Preferences...

The 12Z model guidance suite features average synoptic scale 
agreement across the Alaska domain on Wednesday, although
differences are already becoming apparent across the North Pacific
by this time. A nearly equal mix of the deterministic and ensemble
means were used for Wednesday and Thursday. Model differences 
become much more pronounced going into Friday and beyond across 
the North Pacific, with high ensemble spread with the second low 
approaching the Alaska Peninsula by the end of the week, with even
the deterministic GFS and ECMWF not agreeing well with their
respective ensemble means. The CMC was most out of phase with the
timing of shortwave energy, so this model was not used beyond 
Thursday. Additional changes to the forecast are a near certainty in
the days ahead as models get a better depiction of the overall 
pattern. The ensemble means were increased to over 2/3rds of the
forecast blend by next weekend with below average confidence.


...Weather/Hazards Highlights...

An influx of deeper moisture well to the east of the Bering Sea
low is forecast to result in enhanced rainfall from the eastern
Alaska Peninsula to the Kenai Peninsula and the Prince William
Sound region, and heavy snow for the mountainous terrain for the
early to middle part of next week. A heavy precipitation area has
been maintained on the medium range hazards outlook to account 
for this. Lighter rainfall is expected inland for southern 
portions of the Interior. 

Temperatures are expected to be pleasant across most of the
Interior next week with highs generally from near 50 to the middle
60s south of the Brooks Range, and in the 50s for the greater
Anchorage area. It will still remain cold north of the Brooks 
Range with highs ranging from the 20s near the Arctic Coast to the
30s for the North Slope.

Hamrick


Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC 
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface
fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be
found at:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html