Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service College Park MD
619 PM EST Fri Nov 14 2025

Valid 12Z Tue 18 Nov 2025 - 12Z Sat 22 Nov 2025

...Synoptic Overview...

An active storm track will be in place across the North Pacific
into the Gulf region for next week. The main upper level vortex is
expected to reside over the Bering, with shortwaves pivoting
around the southern and eastern periphery of this main low and
sustaining the development of a few surface lows. The most
impactful low is expected to reach the Alaska Peninsula vicinity
by Thursday, and then weakens as it emerges over the northern Gulf
by Friday. Frigid conditions across the Interior are expected to
moderate by mid-late week with stronger southerly flow.

...Guidance Evaluation/Preferences...

Most of the 12Z guidance was in reasonably good agreement to begin
the period Tuesday, with the exception of the CMC that is likely
too far southwest with a surface low near the central Aleutians,
and north of the consensus with a low over the eastern Gulf on
Wednesday. By Thursday, there is broad synoptic scale agreement
with the main trough over the Bering, but multiple mesoscale
differences including a stronger low solution with the UKMET and
GFS near the Alaska Peninsula. Looking ahead to Friday, the GFS
becomes stronger with a surface low tracking from southwest to
northeast into the Gulf, and big latitudinal differences are
apparent with a new low pressure system on the western horizon by
next Saturday across the western Bering. The ensemble means were
increased to about half by this time.

...Weather/Hazards Highlights...

Periods of high winds and rough seas will affect much of the
Bering Sea region and the adjacent coastlines of western Alaska
and the Aleutians, with multiple low pressure systems moving
through the region. The low pressure system that deepens near the
Alaska Peninsula late in the week is expected to have an enhanced
moisture plume directed at the south-central Gulf Coast from the
Kenai Peninsula to the Prince William Sound region, and a heavy
precipitation area has been added to the medium range hazards
graphic to account for this, mainly for heavy mountain snows.
Widespread subzero temperatures across the Interior this weekend
are expected to warm into the 0s and 10s by early next week
courtesy of increasing southerly flow in the low levels from the
Bering Sea storm systems, and 20s for the southwestern mainland
and 30s near the coast.

Hamrick




Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface
fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be
found at:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html