Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
525 PM EDT Sat Jul 04 2020

Valid 12Z Wed Jul 08 2020 - 12Z Sun Jul 12 2020

...Overview and Guidance/Predictability Assessment...

Upper troughing will focus toward western/southwestern Alaska by
the end of next week via the northwest and southwest. A cold front
associated with the lead upper low near the Bering Strait on
Wednesday will push through Southcentral and into the Gulf.
Another system from the central North Pacific will eventually move
toward Kodiak next weekend. A consensus blend served well to start
the forecast, but then the 12Z ECMWF was preferred over the other
guidance for Fri-Sun with the handling of the western system. The
GFS seemed too quick overall with the pattern, though the trend
was a bit quicker from 24 hrs ago out of the central North
Pacific.

...Weather/Hazard Highlights...

Troughing will promote generally cooler than average temperatures
over most of the state next week into the weekend, perhaps by
10-15 degrees over the Brooks Range. Parts of the western coastal
areas may see near to above average temperatures. Showers will be
favored over the Alaska Range amid daytime heating and cooling
mid-level temperatures. Showers and perhaps steadier rain are
possible over the western Aleutians Wed-Fri as a dying warm front
approaches from the south and a cold front approaches from the
north. Showers may be enhanced over Southcentral as the upper
trough and a weak surface low pass by the region. Rainfall is not
expected to be heavy over a widespread area, but could be locally
heavy.


Fracasso


Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface
fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be
found at:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html