Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service College Park MD
633 PM EST Mon Feb 16 2026

Valid 12Z Fri 20 Feb 2026 - 12Z Tue 24 Feb 2026

...Much colder than average temperatures and gap winds likely for
late week into the weekend...


...Overview...

As the medium range period begins Friday, upper troughing will be
in place atop the eastern part of Alaska, feeding into upper low
development in the northeast Pacific. Meanwhile ridging is
forecast to amplify farther west across the Bering Sea. This
pattern with mean northerly flow should lead to drier and colder
conditions across the state with arctic high pressure in place at
the surface for Friday. This will also result in a tight pressure
gradient along the southern coast and produce gap winds concerns
late this week into the weekend. The ridge is expected to push
east across the Mainland over the weekend (warming temperatures)
before troughing tracks southeastward across the state and
suppresses the ridge early next week.


...Guidance Evaluation and Preferences...

Model guidance is in better than average agreement with the 
ridge-trough pattern aloft setting up Friday and slowly moving 
eastward during the middle part of the forecast period this 
weekend. Recent model guidance has trended toward pulling the 
developing upper low farther south into the Pacific, compared to 
models a day ago. This allows for the upper ridge to move 
east/more into the Mainland. At the surface, arctic high pressure 
settles into the Mainland Friday into the weekend, producing a 
strong pressure gradient with wind concerns. All of this could be 
handled well with a multi-model deterministic blend given the 
model agreement.

By early next week, larger model differences arise with possible 
shortwaves rounding the northern side of the ridge and suppressing
it, affecting the northwestern Mainland at first and spreading 
farther inland Monday-Tuesday. While most 12Z model guidance has 
some semblance of troughing, position/timing/depth of the trough 
are more uncertain. The EC-AIFS had the strongest trough pattern. 
With increasing spread during the late period, included the 
ensemble means in the model blend to about half by that time.


...Weather/Hazards Highlights...

Light to moderate precipitation is possible across Southeast 
Alaska (Panhandle) on Friday with a northeast Pacific low nearby, 
with a drying trend over the weekend. Across the Mainland, after 
mostly dry conditions Friday other than potentially a few mainly 
orographic snow showers, some snow could return to the western 
Mainland over the weekend as energy aloft may poke in. Though 
there is uncertainty, precipitation chances currently look to 
expand slowly east and south into early next week. Meanwhile, the 
Aleutians may see a few rounds of rain and gusty winds on the 
western side of the upper ridge axis. 

Colder than average temperatures will prevail on Friday as 
northerly flow is in place aloft and arctic high pressure should 
settle in at the surface. Minimum temperatures are expected to be 
in the -30s for much of the Interior Friday and especially 
Saturday mornings. But temperatures should moderate to above 
normal in the western part of the state and the North Slope over 
the weekend as the ridge axis aloft tracks eastward, with colder 
than average temperatures becoming more limited to the eastern 
Mainland and Panhandle. By next Tuesday, temperatures look to be 
around average with the potential upper trough.

The cold surface high over the Mainland and low pressure in the 
northeast Pacific will also produce a tight pressure gradient 
across the southern coast, leading to gap wind concerns. Winds are
forecast to be strongest on either side of Kodiak Island 
including Cook Inlet late Thursday into Friday, gradually 
weakening Saturday. Farther east, gap winds are likely to affect 
parts of Southeast Alaska including Dangerous River and 
potentially Lynn Canal and Taku Inlet, with winds likely peaking 
on Saturday in those areas. Freezing spray with these winds is a 
potential hazard to ships in the vicinity.


Tate


Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC 
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface
fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be
found at:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html