Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service College Park MD
454 PM EST Sat Nov 14 2026

Valid 12Z Wed 18 Nov 2026 - 12Z Sun 22 Nov 2026

...Aleutians High Winds Storm Threat Early-Mid Next Week...


...Guidance Evaluation and Preferences...

Forecast spread and predictability now seems about average for 
Alaska and adjoining waters in active flow. Favor a broad blend of
decently clustered guidance of the 12 UTC GFS/ECMWF/Canadian, 
GEFS/ECMWF/Canadian ensemble means and machine learning guidance 
vaid for mid-later next week. Prefer for best WPC product and
threat messaging continuity to lean most on the better compatible
ensemble means by next weekend given uncertainty growth and as 
individual model system cycle to cycle continuity remains less 
than stellar. This is especially evident over the Gulf of Alaska 
where the ECMWF now offers a much deeper northward low track to 
monitor for a growing signal in upcoming guidance for any validity.

...Weather/Hazards Highlights...

Approach and passage of a deep North Pacific storm will support a
threat for high winds to impact the Bering Sea and Aleutians 
Tuesday and Wednesday. Strong cold advection will increase both 
sustained and gusty winds especially behind the low in north to 
northeasterly flow. The storm is expected to gradually weaken 
over the Bering Sea later week and lose influence. However, there
will be coastal flooding threats to monitor for susceptible 
areas/communities given proximity and protracted unsettled and 
wintry flow into Western and especially Southwestern Alaska.

Upstream, yet another storm system with more uncertainty at this
point may develop and track to the southern Bering Sea/Aleutians 
on the heels of this system in a week to monitor for threats.

Meanwhile downstream, expect moisture inflow will fuel periods
with enhanced precipitation and gusty winds into SouthCentral and
Southeast Alaska later next week into next weekend with Gulf of 
Alaska cyclo/fronto genesis under mainly favorable flow aloft.

Up north, a large Arctic high near the Pole will remain largely
stationary right through next week. Gusty easterly winds are 
expected along the Arctic coast, but otherwise most impactful 
weather is not expected through the period.

Schichtel




Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface
fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be
found at:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html