Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service College Park MD
702 PM EDT Mon Mar 23 2026

Valid 12Z Fri 27 Mar 2026 - 12Z Tue 31 Mar 2026


...Overview...

At the start of the extended period Friday, an upper low will 
meander over the Northeast Pacific, while a spoke of a Bering Sea 
upper ridge axis is forecast to stretch east atop the Alaska 
Mainland. In this pattern, precipitation should mainly be limited 
to Southeast Alaska ahead of weak surface lows, while a warming 
trend is forecast particularly for the Mainland. By the weekend, 
arctic energy could erode the Mainland ridge, but ridging may 
maintain itself across the eastern Bering Sea. However, the latter
will be affected by a stacked low slowly pushing east through the
Bering and spreading precipitation across the Aleutians to Alaska
Peninsula.


...Guidance Evaluation and Preferences...

Model guidance shows a good consensus with the initial pattern 
Friday, with the upper low atop the northeast Pacific and the 
ridge axis to its west and north. Surface lows are likely to 
meander underneath the upper low, but the bulk of model guidance 
does not show any lows as particularly strong (aside from the 06Z 
GFS depiction). Meanwhile, northern stream energies are forecast 
to move into northern Alaska and diminish the ridge there, then 
filtering toward or into the northeastern Pacific upper low. This 
would likely be east of the eastern Bering Sea ridge axis, 
maintaining ridging there. Model guidance is reasonably agreeable 
with this overall pattern, though with typical detail differences.

The primary model differences arise early next week as an 
upstream upper/surface low moves across the Bering Sea. Some model
guidance shifts most/all the energy southeastward quickly across 
the Aleutians and into the northern Pacific already by Monday, and
the Bering fills in with ridging behind it. This includes the 
ECMWF as well as its 00Z ensemble mean and the CMC. However, the 
AIFS, AIGFS, and GFS favor maintaining an upper low in the Bering 
for longer, eventually extending some low pressure south of the 
Aleutians later Monday or Tuesday. Tended to favor the latter 
cluster because both the GFS- and EC-based AI models were 
depicting it. The 12Z EC ensemble did slow down a bit with its low
tracking south (amid spread of course).

The early part of the WPC forecast period used a multi-model 
blend, but as the period progressed, used a model/ensemble blend 
but favored the AIFS and GEFS mean in particular. Continue to 
monitor forecasts as the pattern is yet to be resolved early next 
week.


...Weather/Hazards Highlights...

The broad pattern of rounds of low pressure in the northeast 
Pacific could cause some moderate gap winds (less than 35-40 
knots) in favored areas of the Alaska Peninsula and Southeast 
Alaska at times. Rounds of precipitation are likely in Southeast 
Alaska with moist inflow ahead of lows, but with only moderate 
totals in the southern Panhandle and even lighter farther north. 
Light precipitation may make it into portions of Kodiak Island and
Southcentral too. The Alaska Mainland should be mostly dry given 
the continental flow pattern. There may be some light snow across 
portions of the North Slope, especially western areas near Point 
Hope, Friday into the weekend. Farther west, a low 
pressure/frontal system will lead to precipitation chances in the 
Aleutians late week, reaching the Alaska Peninsula over the 
weekend. Enhanced winds could accompany the front but stay below 
any hazardous levels.

The ridge aloft should produce warmer than average temperatures 
across the northern and western portions of the Mainland through 
the period, with highs reaching the teens even for the Arctic 
Coast communities. Expect the southern half of the state to see 
colder than average temperatures, but these are forecast to 
gradually moderate closer to average into the weekend. This 
equates to highs near/slightly above the freezing mark in 
Southcentral, 20s to even 30F across much of the Interior, and 30s
warming to around 40 degrees in Southeast.


Tate


Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC 
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface
fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be
found at:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html