Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service College Park MD
651 PM EDT Sat Sep 26 2026

Valid 12Z Wed 30 Sep 2026 - 12Z Sun 4 Oct 2026

...General Overview...

The weather pattern remains active over the North Pacific and into
the Gulf with a potentially well organized storm system tracking
just south of the Aleutians and then into the Gulf by the end of
next week, followed by another storm system across the Bering next
weekend. A broad upper trough will be in place across the Arctic,
and surface high pressure should reside across the northern half
of the state with relatively quiet conditions.

...Guidance Evaluation and Preferences...

The 12Z model guidance suite features decent overall agreement 
across the Alaska domain for the beginning of the forecast period 
Wednesday, with a multi-deterministic model blend used for fronts 
and pressures. Modest differences emerge across the north Pacific 
and Gulf by Thursday as the next storm system arrives, and then 
model and ensemble spread becomes more substantial regarding 
mesoscale details on the Gulf system towards next weekend, with 
ensemble means increased to 40-50% by that time.

...Weather/Hazards Highlights...

The next cyclone on the horizon should reach the western 
Aleutians by Wednesday, and will likely track through the 
remainder of the Aleutians before heading toward the Gulf of 
Alaska by late next week and into next weekend. This system 
should bring a good chance of gale-force winds through the 
Aleutians with a period of enhanced precipitation as it tracks 
through the Aleutians. By next weekend, the South-central part of
the state should begin to see an increasing chance of heavier 
precipitation as the main circulation of this cyclone reaches the 
Gulf of Alaska. Meanwhile, the rest of mainland Alaska up through 
the Brooks Range and North Slope should remain mostly dry. No 
hazards areas are currently denoted on the hazards map, but this 
may change in the days ahead as things become more certain.

Hamrick


Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC 
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface
fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be
found at:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html