Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service College Park MD
647 PM EST Wed Nov 5 2025

Valid 12Z Sun 09 Nov 2025 - 12Z Thu 13 Nov 2025

...Strong low pressure system will bring high winds to the 
Aleutians into the weekend with another possible system next 
week...

...Heavy precipitation possible for the southern Panhandle this 
weekend...

...Overview...

An upper level and surface low will be weakening as the period 
begins Sunday, while another upper low that lifts towards the 
Panhandle from the Northeast Pacific. This low will bring a period
of heavy rainfall (and mountain snows) to especially southern 
parts of the Panhandle region this weekend. Meanwhile, upstream, 
the next strong upper/surface low will be moving into the Bering 
Sea, with some weakening as it pushes eastward into early next 
week and a shortwave rounding the base of this trough spins 
another upper low that track towards the Gulf next week. High 
winds will be a hazard with this low as it moves through the 
western Aleutians, mainly for Saturday. Another modestly strong 
low looks to impact the western Aleutians by next Tuesday- 
Wednesday with another round of high winds.


...Guidance Evaluation/Preferences...

Model guidance today continues to show above average agreement on
the synoptic scale pattern described above. Uncertainties, even 
into next week, include exact locations and timing of systems. The
guidance shows very good agreement that the low in the western 
Bering Sea this weekend may have a central pressure as low as the 
upper 940s. There remains some variability in the timing of a 
shortwave as it spins up a surface low off the main system and 
tracks into the Gulf, with the GFS still a bit stronger and more 
south/west with the upper system than consensus. There is 
agreement that another low will move into the western Bering Sea 
early to mid next week, with a second low lifting northward 
towards the Aleutians, but uncertainty in the timing of this 
evolution.

The WPC forecast today used a general deterministic model blend 
through Day 5, gradually increasing weighting of the ensemble 
means to 60 percent of the blend by Day 8. This maintains good 
agreement with yesterdays WPC forecast as well.


...Weather/Hazards Highlights...

Moist inflow to the east from both the initial weakening low in 
the Gulf and the next low from the northeast Pacific will allow 
for rain and snow into Southeast Alaska this weekend, with heavy 
precipitation possible mainly for the southern portions of the 
Panhandle. Moderate precipitation should extend north towards 
southeast Alaska and the Southern Coast with time. Farther inland,
light snow showers are possible across the Mainland. On the 
backside of the second low pressure system, gap winds may be 
possible and could focus west and east of Kodiak Island. These 
should generally stay below thresholds for a High Winds hazard. 

The strong low pressure system affecting the Aleutians should 
come in with moderate precipitation towards the end of the short 
range period later this week. High winds potentially in excess of 
50-55 knots are possible with the core of the low pressure system 
tracking into the central/eastern Aleutians by Saturday. This 
allows for a High Winds area for Saturday in the Day 3-7 Hazards. 
The low generally looks to weaken as it moves east Sunday into 
early next week, so wind speeds should decrease. Modest 
precipitation is forecast to move across the Alaska Peninsula 
later Saturday into Sunday and into Kodiak Island and Southcentral
early next week, depending on the low track and timing. Gusty 
winds and light precipitation may impact parts of Western Alaska 
too. The next low will bring another round of precipitation and 
high wind potential to parts of the Aleutians by early next week.

Alaska will generally see cooler weather during the medium range 
period under general troughing. The most below normal temperatures
should focus around western/southwest Alaska. Above normal 
temperatures in the eastern Mainland/Panhandle may reduce in 
magnitude and scope early next week, but the North Slope is likely
to stay well above normal (highs in the upper teens). 


Santorelli




Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface
fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be
found at:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html