Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service College Park MD
609 PM EST Mon Jan 26 2026

Valid 12Z Fri 30 Jan 2026 - 12Z Tue 03 Feb 2026

...Overview...

Relatively weak flow aloft should be in place later this week
across Alaska as an eastern Siberia upper low pulls away to the
west. By this weekend into early next week, upper ridging will
poke in from western Canada for gradually warming temperatures.
Rounds of upper lows supporting surface lows in the Pacific south
of the ridge axis will allow for rounds of precipitation to reach
the southern coast. These lows do not look to be terribly strong
in terms of depth and associated winds and precipitation, but will
continue to monitor potentially increasing chances into early-mid
next week for a stronger low.


...Guidance Evaluation and Preferences...

Dynamical, AI, and ensemble model guidance all generally agree on
the pattern described above. However, the smaller scale features 
are more questionable and less predictable. This includes the 
evolution of low pressure south of Kodiak Island after early 
Sunday (weakening in place like the ECMWF or drifting west like 
the GFS), while another low spins south of the Aleutians. A 
stronger low (possibly 950s to low 960s mb) may develop Monday- 
Tuesday of next week and track through the northeast Pacific once 
again. There is some spread in its position too, including the CMC
producing a secondary low close to the Yakutat region by 12Z 
Tuesday.

Overall, with differences but not really outliers in the model 
guidance, the WPC forecast used a blend of the deterministic 
models and AIFS early on, with increasing proportions of the 
ensemble means as the period progressed and spread increased.


...Weather/Hazards Highlights...

Periodic precipitation is likely across the southern coast of 
Alaska late week into the weekend with rounds of low pressure in 
the Pacific. Totals should stay fairly modest while winds 
associated with the lows do not look to be very strong either. 
Increasing moisture and a stronger low in the northeast Pacific by
early next week could bring heavier precipitation from Kodiak 
Island to Southcentral and Southeast Alaska Monday-Tuesday, along 
with stronger winds in the Gulf of Alaska to Southeast, which will
continue to be monitored. Additionally, lighter snow showers are 
possible farther north, with more coverage possible early next 
week. 

Expect a warming trend in temperatures late week as upper ridging
starts to influence Southeast Alaska into the Mainland. Most low 
temperatures will be above average across the state. Meanwhile 
highs could be more mixed above/near/below normal in the Interior,
though southern areas should be somewhat above average with highs
in the 30s and 40s. Into early next week, the North Slope to 
Brooks Range could cool to below normal as arctic upper troughing 
could reach the region.


Tate


Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC 
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface
fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be
found at:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html