Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service College Park MD
503 PM EDT Thu Mar 19 2026

Valid 12Z Mon 23 Mar 2026 - 12Z Fri 27 Mar 2026


...Guidance Evaluation and Preferences...

Guidance offers well clustered solutions especially for early next
week as anchored by a highly amplified upper ridge to the west of
the state that increasingly pokes over northern Alaska with time
as a mean trough over the Mainland leads into a northern Gulf of 
Alaska closed low/trough. Predictability seems above average 
overall, but does slip some into later next week given continued 
issues with specifics of digging system energies feeding into the 
Gulf of Alaska. Favor a composite guidance solution for early next
week before a transition to a more compatible and cycle to cycle 
consistent GEFS/ECMWF/Canadian ensemble means blended solution to 
best maintain what has proven to be a persistent blocky pattern. 
This forecast plan acts to maintain great WPC product continuity.

...Weather/Hazards Highlights...

Mean upper troughing over the Mainland/Gulf of Alaska along with 
multiple rounds of reinforcing and Gulf closed low periphery 
rotating impulses will promote a pattern with some periodic wet 
weather for the Southern Coast and Panhandle regions into next 
week. A focus offshore over the highly unsettled Gulf of Alaska 
suggests most inland precipitation will mostly not be heavy, but 
there is a signal for a deeper low to lift into the eastern Gulf 
of Alaska from Pacific lower latitudes heading into next midweek. 
This windy low could offer a deeper moisture connection fetch to 
monitor for Southeast Alaska. Cold air advection on the backside 
of the Gulf low position will also promote some gap wind
enhancement across southern portions of the state into next week.

Overall in this pattern, the Mainland should be generally dry and
cold into next week, with precipitation with a wrapping front 
moving into the western Aleutians ahead of upstream lows into 
later period. Temperatures over especially the central to southern
parts of the Mainland will begin unseasonably cold underneath 
upper level troughing, but northern Alaska and then Western Alaska
and into the Interior may gradually moderate with time next week.


Schichtel


Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC 
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface
fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be
found at:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html