Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
222 AM EST Sat Jan 24 2026

Valid 00Z Sun 25 Jan 2026 - 00Z Sun 01 Feb 2026

A rather tranquil period is expected across much of the Hawaiian
island chain to round out the final week of January. A series of
synoptic fronts will attempt to approach the chain from the north,
but most will not make it, or die out as they push south and east
down the chain. There is poor agreement among the global models
with the first of those fronts late Sunday into Monday. The EC
moves the rapidly weakening and shearing apart front through at
least the northern and western islands, ultimately not making it
as far as the Big Island. Meanwhile both the GFS and CMC show the
front dying out before reaching the chain. A few showers,
especially in Kauai and Oahu can't be ruled out, but ultimately
they should be non-impactful.

Behind the front, a large subtropical high pressure becomes well-
established northeast of the chain, but its influence extends
southwest from the center of the high to Hawaii itself. This in
turn will continue deflecting most fronts that attempt to approach
the islands to the north. Thus, other than typical afternoon
convection from time to time, much of the state will remain dry
right through next week. Just like with this first front on
Monday, guidance remains in poor agreement as to which fronts have
enough strength to make it to the chain and when. Thus, while the
possibility of brief showers with the remnants of any dying fronts
can't be ruled out entirely, chances are low at any time.

Wegman