Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
459 AM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026

Valid 00Z Tue 14 Apr 2026 - 00Z Tue 21 Apr 2026

The axis of above average PW values that has persisted across the
Islands recently...associated with a stalled front/shear 
line emanating from the stationary upper low situated 
approximately 1000 to 1100 miles to the northwest of the Islands 
near 36N 167W, will remain across the Islands for much of the
upcoming forecast period. The stationary upper low is forecast to
become more progressive to the east, with the trailing 
front/shear line dissipating in the vicinity of the Islands.

The trades that have been disrupted significantly lately with this
stalled front/shear line, will begin to return to more normal by 
the end of this week as surface high pressure builds to the north 
of the state near 40-45N and the stalled front/shear line 
dissipates. 

The latest model consensus is for less organized precipitation
across the state over the next week. For the first two days, 
model consensus is for Kauai having the best chance of any
organized precip. After that much of the Island chain will have
less organized precip as trades begin to re-establish.

Models continue to show a new trof taking shape by the end of the
week to the west of the Islands along approximately 170W. There
may be a closed low near 30N associated with this trof, but its
intensity should not be as strong as the current stationary mid to
upper level closed low near 36N 167W. 

Consensus in the model qpf fields is for any widespread precip 
associated with the end of the week trof west of the Islands to 
remain west of the state. With trades returning to more normal 
status, more typical windward/leeward precipitation distributions 
are likely. With PW values still remaining anomalous across the 
state for much of the upcoming week, heavier than normal trades 
showers possible.

Oravec