Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
515 PM EDT Wed Jun 12 2024

Valid 12Z Sun Jun 16 2024 - 12Z Thu Jun 20 2024

...Overview, Guidance Evaluation, & Preferences...
An Omega Block slowly flattens over time, keeping the main cyclone
track south of the Aleutians/AK.  A cold low takes up real estate
near northwest AK.  This allows a front to cross portions of
western and northern AK.  The guidance showed more dispersion
today, with the 12z UKMET especially aggressive to remove the AK
ridge by taking the cold low bodily through the state.  Much of
the guidance is closer to the 00z ECMWF and 12z NAEFS means and
maintained somewhat more ridging across AK, though trends are not
on their side.  The pressures, winds, and QPF were a blend of the
12z deterministic guidance (with 12z UKMET dropping out earlier
than usual) with increasing amounts of the 00z ECMWF and 12z NAEFS
means with time.  The remainder of the grids heavily relied upon
the 19z NBM.


...Weather/Hazards Highlights...
Winds to 30 knots/35 mph at times across the Aleutians, AK
Peninsula, and North Slope.  Precipitation chances slowly gain
real estate across AK as ridging aloft slowly erodes;
precipitation amounts are expected to be modest.  High
temperatures are forecast to range from the upper 30Fs in the
North Slope, 40Fs in the Aleutians, the 50Fs along the southern
coast, and the 70Fs/near 80F across the interior.  Low
temperatures are expected to dip below freezing across the North
Slope and the higher terrain of south-central and southeast AK.

Roth


Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface
fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be
found at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html