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< Day 2 Outlook
WPC Day 3 Excessive Rainfall Outlook
Risk of 1 to 6 hour rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance at a point
Updated: 0829 UTC Fri May 3, 2024
Valid: 12 UTC May 05, 2024 - 12 UTC May 06, 2024
![Day 3 Excessive Rainfall Forecast]( "Current Day 3 Excessive Rainfall Forecast")
Forecast Discussion
Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
500 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024
Day 3
Valid 12Z Sun May 05 2024 - 12Z Mon May 06 2024
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...
The potential for excessive rainfall makes its way eastward on
Sunday in association with a closed low aloft and a cold front at
the surface. Model QPF was not as heavy as forecast on Day 2 as
shifting low level flow results in weaker low level moisture flux
convergence along the front. Despite model QPF generally being 2
inches or less...opted for a Slight Risk given the wet antecedent
conditions over portions of eastern Texas and eastern Oklahoma.
Bann
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