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Medium Range Products Valid On:
03/14/2016
Day 7 Fronts/Pressures (valid 12Z)
Day 6 Fronts/Pressures(valid 12Z)
Day 5 Fronts/Pressures(valid 12Z)
Day 4 Fronts/Pressures(valid 12Z)
Day 3 Fronts/Pressures(valid 12Z)
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12Z Analysis on 03/14/2016 (verification)
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Day 7 Minimum Temperatures
(morning minimum temperatures valid on 03/14/2016)
Day 6 Minimum Temperatures
(morning minimum temperatures valid on 03/14/2016)
Day 5 Minimum Temperatures
(morning minimum temperatures valid on 03/14/2016)
Day 4 Minimum Temperatures
(morning minimum temperatures valid on 03/14/2016)
Day 3 Minimum Temperatures
(morning minimum temperatures valid on 03/14/2016)
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Day 7 Maximum Temperatures
(afternoon maximum temperatures valid on 03/14/2016)
Day 6 Maximum Temperatures
(afternoon maximum temperatures valid on 03/14/2016)
Day 5 Maximum Temperatures
(afternoon maximum temperatures valid on 03/14/2016)
Day 4 Maximum Temperatures
(afternoon maximum temperatures valid on 03/14/2016)
Day 3 Maximum Temperatures
(afternoon maximum temperatures valid on 03/14/2016)
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Day 7 12-Hr Probability of Precipitation
(valid at 12Z on 03/14/2016)
Day 6 12-Hr Probability of Precipitation
(valid at 12Z on 03/14/2016)
Day 5 12-Hr Probability of Precipitation
(valid at 12Z on 03/14/2016)
Day 4 12-Hr Probability of Precipitation
(valid at 12Z on 03/14/2016)
Day 3 12-Hr Probability of Precipitation
(valid at 12Z on 03/14/2016)
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Day 7 12-Hr Probability of Precipitation
(valid at 00Z on 03/15/2016)
Day 6 12-Hr Probability of Precipitation
(valid at 00Z on 03/15/2016)
Day 5 12-Hr Probability of Precipitation
(valid at 00Z on 03/15/2016)
Day 4 12-Hr Probability of Precipitation
(valid at 00Z on 03/15/2016)
Day 3 12-Hr Probability of Precipitation
(valid at 00Z on 03/15/2016)
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(Day 7 PMDEPD: Valid 03/10/2016 to 03/14/2016)
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1043 AM EST MON MAR 07 2016
VALID 12Z THU MAR 10 2016 - 12Z MON MAR 14 2016
...OVERVIEW...
HEAVY RAINFALL SIGNATURE SETTING UP FOR
---OKLAHOMA...ARKANSAS...LOUISIANA...TEXAS AND THE LOWER HALF OF
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY --- AND NOT NECESSARILY IN THAT ORDER.
AT A SYNOPTIC-SCALE PERSPECTIVE---VERY-SLOW MOVING CUTOFF LOW
SOLUTION OVER TEXAS AND DOWNSTREAM UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
STRUCTURE...AXIS AND POSITION --- HAVE VERY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST
THE 7/00Z ECENS/GEFS/CMC MEANS AND A GENERAL CONSENSUS AMONGST THE
7/00Z CYCLE DETERMINISTIC RUNS THROUGH DAY 4 --- WITH THE CUTOFF
LOW ON A GENERAL DRIFT TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST (AT LESS THAN 10 KTS)
BY DAY 5-6. THE DETERMINISTIC DIFFERENCES APPEAR TO BE WHERE
THINGS CAN BE BROKEN DOWN INTO MEANINGFUL PIECES OF GUIDANCE.
THE BLEND I USED TODAY --- CARRIES SOME ASPECTS OF THE
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE ---BUT MAINLY A 7/00Z ECENS/NAEFS/GEFS
MEANS APPROACH --- DAYS 3-7 --- IS PROBABLY THE BEST APPROACH.
--- DAY 3-5 ---
THE 7/00Z DETERMINISTIC UKMET...GFS...ECMWF AND CANADIAN UTILIZE A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE (COLD ADVECTION AND FRONTAL PASSAGE)
QUITE DIFFERENTLY --- AND TEND TO 'LOP OFF' A PORTION OF THE
CUTOFF'S CONVECTIVE/MID-LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME OVER THE MIDWEST ---
SENDING IT DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...GREAT LAKES AND NEW
ENGLAND. BEFORE EXITING THE LOWER 48 OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES---THE SHARPER SOLUTIONS ATTEMPT TO 'BACKDOOR' A FRONT
EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS (ECMWF/UKMET) BY THE END OF DAY 5
---BENEATH THE QUASI-STATIONARY UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHEAST RIDGE.
THIS IS PRIMARILY A TEMPERATURE CHALLENGE FOR THE
NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC--- IE TEMPERATURE TRANSITION FROM WARM TO
COOL VERSUS PERSISTENCE (MILD/WARM) FOR THE THURSDAY TO
SATURDAY...BUT OBVIOUSLY --- A CHALLENGE BENEATH THE ENTIRE RIDGE
ACROSS FLORIDA/GEORGIA---AND ALONG ITS WESTERN FLANKS FOR PARTS OF
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.
IN ADDITION --- THIS CERTAINLY WILL BE A PRECIPITATION CHALLENGE
FOR THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY WITH RESPECT TO
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND DURATION OF THE EVENT(S)--- AS
PERTURBATIONS ALONG THE NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE "SOUTHERN
PLAINS CUTOFF" EJECT DOWNWIND INTO THE UPWIND SIDE (WEST SIDE) OF
THE RIDGE AXIS.
THIS NARROW RIBBON OF MOISTURE AND EMBEDDED ELEVATED
SHORTWAVE-ENHANCED PRECIPITATION COMPLICATES THE DETAILS ALONG THE
FRONT.
AN EVEN BIGGER...CRITICAL DIFFERENCE IN THE 7/00Z DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE GOING FORWARD BEYOND DAY 3 CONCERNS HEAVY RAINFALL
AMOUNTS---ASSOCIATED WITH THE EASTWARD PROPAGATION OF CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOW (AND RAIN-COOLED AIRMASS BOUNDARY) ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO --- THE I-10/I-20 CORRIDORS FROM EASTERN TEXAS TO
THE AL/FL STATE LINE. IF A HAVE A QPF PREFERENCE...WOULD SPLIT THE
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE 7/00Z ECENS/GEFS MEAN AND DETERMINISTIC
ECWMF FOR A SLOWER PROPAGATING CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN THE
NORTH CENTRAL GULF --- GIVEN THE STRENGTH AND ORIENTATION OF THE
DOWNSTREAM RIDGE.
--- DAY 6-7 ---
I DID NOT EVEN TRY TO MENTION THE POSITION OF THE SYNOPTIC-SCALE
300MB-700MB LAYERED CUTOFF IN RELATIONSHIP TO THE OUTFLOW ---
BECAUSE THIS WILL BE A SEPARATE ENTITY ALTOGETHER AND WHERE THE
STEEP LAPSE-RATE 'DRIVEN' CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS ORIGINATE AT/JUST
BEYOND DAY 5. THEIR INCORPORATION INTO WHAT IS LEFT OF A MOIST
LOW-LEVEL INFLOW AND COUNTER-CLOCKWISE MIGRATION/LIFE CYCLE AROUND
THE CIRCULATION --- VARIES FROM RUN-TO-RUN. AND HERE...THE
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE IDENTIFIES THE INDIVIDUAL ELEMENTS WELL
ENOUGH --- BUT THIS SEEMS TO BE MORE OF A MESOSCALE DEVELOPMENT
--- AND ADDS TO THE DEEP-LAYERED CIRCULATION'S APPARENT 'WOBBLE'
BETWEEN THE MID RIO GRANDE RIVER AND SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS---THEN
THE SUBSEQUENT 500MB STORM TRACK INTO NORTHEAST TEXAS (AT THE
SYNOPTIC-SCALE). THESE FACTORS DICTATE USING THE MEANS TO SET THE
SYNOPTIC-SCALE EVACUATION OF THIS CUTOFF NORTHWARD INTO THE
MID-CONTINENTAL FLOW FOR DAYS 6-7. HERE ... THE MEANS (AND
NATIONAL BLEND AT 500MBS) SUGGESTS THAT THE CIRCULATION MIGRATES
INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA ---DAY 5-6 --- AND BEGINS TO FILL/WEAKEN
WITH LOW-LEVEL INFLOW ELIMINATED FROM THE MIX. BUT THERE REALLY IS
NO GUARANTEE THE ATMOSPHERE WILL AGREE AT THESE TIME SCALE---WITH
THE PACIFIC FLOW UPSTREAM APPARENTLY 'DICTATING' THE EVACUATION OF
THIS PARTICULARLY STUBBORN CUTOFF LOW.
THE SENSIBLE WEATHER DISCUSSION FROM THE MIDSHIFT FOLLOWS.
...SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...
OVER THE WEST... PROGRESSION OF SYSTEMS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
PERIODS OF ENHANCED RNFL/HIGH ELEV SNOW AND EPISODES OF STRONG
WINDS DURING THE PERIOD. GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT IN HIGHLIGHTING
POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST 5-10 INCH LIQUID TOTALS FOCUSED OVER NRN
CA/SWRN OR DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. EXPECT LESSER BUT
STILL SIGNIFICANT AMTS TO EXTEND ACROSS THE PAC NW AND NRN ROCKIES
AS WELL AS TO THE S INTO CENTRAL CA. DURING THU-FRI NRN CA SHOULD
SEE HEAVIEST PCPN FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF BREAK AS LIGHTER ACTIVITY
PROCEEDS INLAND. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO AFFECT THE
CNTRL-NRN WEST COAST SAT AND SPREAD MSTR GRADUALLY SEWD WITH TIME
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
GUIDANCE SPREAD FOR UPR LOW PROGRESSION FROM MEXICO/TEXAS LEADS TO
SOME UNCERTAINTY OVER THE PRECISE LOCATION/INTENSITY OF BEST HVY
RAIN FOCUS... THOUGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS ABOVE AVG FOR A
SIGNIFICANT EVENT IN GENERAL GIVEN FAVORABLE INGREDIENTS. BASED
ON PREFS FOR AN INTERMEDIATE PROGRESSION THE BEST CONFIDENCE WOULD
LIE BTWN THE VERY SLOW REPEATING ACTIVITY FOCUSED ON LOUISIANA IN
THE PAST COUPLE ECMWF RUNS AND RELATIVELY LIGHTER/MORE PROGRESSIVE
ACTIVITY DEPICTED IN GFS RUNS. THE FLOW OF GULF MSTR BECOMING
ESTABLISHED IN THE SHORT RANGE WILL EXTEND TO SOME DEGREE ALONG
THE WAVY FRONT INTO THE MIDWEST/GRTLKS/NORTHEAST EARLY IN THE
PERIOD. THE UPR LOW ITSELF SHOULD ALSO PROMOTE SOME ENHANCED RNFL
OVER TEXAS. CONSULT LATEST SPC OUTLOOKS FOR INFO REGARDING SEVERE
WEATHER THREATS. ERN CONUS RNFL SHOULD BECOME BROADER/MORE
DIFFUSE WITH TIME AS THE UPR SYSTEM GRADUALLY WEAKENS/LIFTS NEWD.
FOR THE THU-MON PERIOD AS A WHOLE THE WEST COAST SHOULD BE THE
ONLY AREA TO SEE CONSISTENTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS... PRIMARILY
DAYTIME HIGHS. ABOVE TO MUCH ABOVE NORMAL READINGS WILL PREVAIL
MOST OTHER LOCATIONS. TO THE E OF THE ROCKIES EXPECT A BROAD AREA
WITH 5-DAY MEAN ANOMALIES OF 10-20F ABOVE NORMAL FOR MAX TEMPS AND
15-25F ABOVE NORMAL FOR MINS. DAILY RECORDS FOR WARM MINS ARE
MOST LIKELY OVER THE EAST LATE THIS WEEK AND OVER THE NRN PLAINS
FRI ONWARD. ISOLD RECORD HIGHS ARE ALSO PSBL ON SOME DAYS.
VOJTESAK/RAUSCH
(Day 6 PMDEPD: Valid 03/11/2016 to 03/15/2016)
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1020 AM EST TUE MAR 08 2016
VALID 12Z FRI MAR 11 2016 - 12Z TUE MAR 15 2016
GUIDANCE EVALUATION/PREFERENCES
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
OVERALL, THE GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES UPON TROUGHING EDGING INTO
THE WEST WITH DOWNSTREAM RIDGING BUILDING IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WHICH SHOULD ESCORT THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TROUGH EASTWARD, WHICH
ATTEMPTS TO SHEAR OUT AS IT PASSES BY THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE
00Z UKMET HAD ISSUES EARLY NEAR THE WEST COAST AND WAS NOT USED.
OTHERWISE, TO MAINTAIN SOME DEGREE OF DETAIL, A COMPROMISE OF THE
00Z ECMWF/06Z GFS/00Z CANADIAN WAS USED FOR THE PRESSURE PATTERN
INTO MONDAY, BEFORE USE OF THE 00Z ECMWF WAS MINIMIZED NEXT
TUESDAY DUE TO ITS MUCH MORE SOUTHEASTERLY DEEP CYCLONE IN THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND MORE NORTHERLY CYCLONE NEAR THE EAST COAST
OF NORTH AMERICA. TEMPERATURES AND RAIN CHANCES WERE DERIVED FROM
THE 00Z GEFS/00Z NAEFS/00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS, WHICH WERE IN
REASONABLE AGREEMENT.
SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
OVER THE WEST, PERIODS OF HEAVY RNFL/HIGH ELEVATION SNOW AND
STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND INLAND FROM THE WEST COAST,
WITH LOCATIONS ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHWEST OR/NORTHERN CA/SIERRA
NEVADA RANGE MOST LIKELY TO SEE 4-8", WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS,
OF PRECIPITATION BETWEEN FRIDAY AND NEXT TUESDAY. MEANINGFUL
PRECIPITATION WILL EXTEND ELSEWHERE ALONG THE WEST COAST AND
INLAND TO THE ROCKIES. AS THE EASTERN PACIFIC UPPER TROUGH MOVES
INLAND NEXT WEEK, EXPECT THE MOISTURE SHIELD/ONSHORE FLOW TO
EXTEND FARTHER SOUTH OVER CA AND EASTWARD INTO THE INTERIOR
WEST/ROCKIES ALONG WITH A LOWERING OF SNOW LEVELS. UPPER TROUGH
PROGRESSION SHOULD ULTIMATELY LEAD TO MUCH LIGHTER ACTIVITY ALONG
THE WEST COAST BY NEXT TUESDAY.
AS THE TEXAS UPR LOW WEAKENS AND LIFTS NORTHEAST... EXPECT
RAINFALL TO BECOME LESS STRONGLY FOCUSED ALONG THE GULF COAST ONCE
THE CYCLONE PASSES THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS A BROAD AREA OF
MOISTURE MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. INTO THE START OF NEXT
WEEK. WHILE TOTALS SHOULD NOT BE AS EXTREME AS THOSE OBSERVED
DURING THE SHORT RANGE/EARLY MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD... SOME LOCALLY
MDT-HVY POCKETS OF RAIN ARE STILL POSSIBLE. THE FRONT DRAPED
ACROSS THE EAST MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SOME OF THE LOCALIZED
ENHANCEMENT. ANTICIPATE A DRYING TREND FROM WEST TO EAST BY NEXT
MON-TUE.
ASIDE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY WHEN CLOUDS/RNFL SHOULD
HOLD DOWN DAYTIME HIGHS... BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE
CONFINED TO THE WEST COAST STATES AND SPREADING INTO THE INTERIOR
WEST EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITHIN THE BROAD AREA OF ABOVE TO MUCH
ABOVE NORMAL READINGS OVER THE CNTRL-ERN STATES THE NRN PLAINS/UPR
MS VLY SHOULD EXPERIENCE THE GREATEST ANOMALIES WITH MULTIPLE DAYS
OF MAX/MIN TEMPS 20-30F ABOVE NORMAL... WITH SUCH ANOMALIES
EXTENDING FARTHER SWD OVER THE PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. CURRENTLY
EXPECT MORE POTENTIAL FOR RECORD WARM MINIMA VERSUS RECORD HIGHS.
ROTH/RAUSCH
(Day 5 PMDEPD: Valid 03/12/2016 to 03/16/2016)
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1014 AM EST WED MAR 09 2016
VALID 12Z SAT MAR 12 2016 - 12Z WED MAR 16 2016
GENERAL FLOW PATTERN
MODEL EVALUATION/PREFERENCES
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE INCREASING UPPER TROUGHING
ACROSS THE WEST/PLAINS WITH LINGERING RIDGING ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST. THIS PATTERN SHOULD ALLOW SYSTEMS EJECTING OUT OF THE
BASE OF THE WESTERN TROUGH TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS/MIDWEST WHILE WEAKENING AS THEY ENTER THE SUPERGEOSTROPHIC
FLOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST RIDGE. THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN
EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY. DETAIL ISSUES LED TO
A PREFERENCE FOR A COMPROMISE OF THE DETERMINISTIC 00Z UKMET/00Z
CANADIAN/00Z ECMWF/06Z GFS FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, BEFORE
SWITCHING TO A 00Z CANADIAN/00Z ECMWF/06Z GFS COMPROMISE FOR THE
PRESSURE PATTERN. THIS PATTERN IS AGREEABLE WITH THE AVAILABLE
ENSEMBLE MEANS, WITH THE MEANS USED PRIMARILY FOR THE
TEMPERATURE/RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
THE PATTERN FAVORING PERIODS OF ENHANCED RAIN/HIGHER ELEVATION
SNOW ALONG WITH STRONG WINDS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
NORTHERN CA AND INLAND ACROSS THE FAVORED TERRAIN COULD EXTEND
INTO MONDAY. PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER TROUGH INTO THE WEST WILL
SUPPORT A DRIER TREND ALONG THE WEST COAST BY TUESDAY AND NEXT
WEDNESDAY, WHILE SPREADING MOISTURE INLAND THROUGH THE INTERIOR
WEST/ROCKIES AND EVENTUALLY INTO PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS. BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS GENERALLY CONFINED TO THE WEST COAST STATES DURING
THE WEEKEND WILL EXTEND EWD THROUGH MORE OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
BY TUESDAY AND NEXT WEDNESDAY.
WITHIN THE BROAD MOISTURE SHIELD CROSSING THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY, THE MOST FOCUSED INTENSE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE ALONG THE
E-CNTRL GULF COAST EARLY IN THE PERIOD CLOSER TO WHERE THE BETTER
INSTABILITY SHOULD LIE. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME POCKETS OF
ENHANCED RAINFALL ELSEWHERE BUT WITH LOWER PREDICTABILITY. EXPECT
RAINS TO TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST BY THE MON-WED TIME FRAME.
CONTINUE TO ANTICIPATE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES OVER MUCH
OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST UNITED STATES DURING THE PERIOD
WITH THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY REGION MOST LIKELY TO SEE
MULTIPLE DAYS OF 20-30F WARM ANOMALIES... WHICH AT TIMES MAY
EXTEND INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY REACH/EXCEED DAILY RECORD HIGHS AT SOME LOCATIONS, THOUGH
RECORD WARM MINIMA ARE MORE FAVORED. RECORD WARM TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME LESS NUMEROUS WITH TIME, PARTICULARLY FROM THIS
WEEKEND ONWARD AS THE MODEL TREND HAS BEEN TOWARDS MORE PERSISTENT
WEDGING (WHICH COULD BECOME PRECIPITATION ENHANCED) ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
ROTH/RAUSCH
(Day 4 PMDEPD: Valid 03/13/2016 to 03/17/2016)
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
942 AM EST THU MAR 10 2016
VALID 12Z SUN MAR 13 2016 - 12Z THU MAR 17 2016
GENERAL FLOW PATTERN & MODEL PREFERENCES
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
THE GUIDANCE SHOWED GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING AN UPPER TROUGH WHICH
STRENGTHENS/IS REINFORCED ACROSS THE PLAINS/WEST WITH RIDGING
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND A TRANSIENT SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY/MID-ATLANTIC STATES. FROM TUESDAY ONWARD, THE 06Z
GFS/00Z ECMWF DEPARTED SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THEIR ENSEMBLE MEANS,
WHICH RULED THEM OUT. HOWEVER, THE 00Z CANADIAN PATTERN WAS MORE
AGREEABLE WITH THE MEANS IN SOME ASPECTS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
USED A COMPROMISE OF THE 00Z UKMET/00Z CANADIAN/06Z GFS/00Z ECMWF
FOR THE PRESSURES/500 HPA HEIGHTS MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING QUICKLY AWAY FROM THE GFS/ECMWF/UKMET SOLUTIONS, LEAVING
SOME 00Z CANADIAN IN THE MIX THEREAFTER. HOWEVER, THE PRESSURES
AND 500 HPA HEIGHTS WERE STRONGLY BASED ON AN ENHANCED 00Z
ECMWF/06Z GEFS MEAN BLEND FROM TUESDAY INTO NEXT THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES AND RAIN CHANCES WERE STRONGLY BASED ON THE
GEFS/ECMWF/NAEFS MEANS THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD.
SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION SHOULD CONTINUE FROM
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO MONDAY WITH A
DRIER TREND TO FOLLOW FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. INLAND
PROGRESSION OF THE PACIFIC UPPER TROUGH WILL SPREAD MOISTURE
ACROSS PARTS OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND ROCKIES WITH THE BEST
FOCUS OVER TYPICALLY FAVORED TERRAIN. EXPECT BRISK WINDS WITH THE
INITIAL NORTHWEST SYSTEM AND THEN DUE TO THE STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN DEVELOPING PLAINS LOW PRESSURE AREA AND EASTERN
PACIFIC HIGH BUILDING INTO THE WEST. IF THE PATTERN EVOLVES AS
FORECAST, THE MID-WEEK CENTRAL U.S. SYSTEM SHOULD GENERATE WINDY
CONDITIONS OVER SOME AREAS WITH PRECIPITATION ALONG ITS COLD FRONT
AND WITHIN ITS COMMA HEAD. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE NORTHERN TIER
MAY SEE SOME SNOW FROM THIS SYSTEM IF IT WRAPS UP STRONGLY ENOUGH
AS HINTED AT IN 06Z GFS/00Z UKMET RUNS (THOUGH FARTHER
SOUTHEASTWARD). A BROAD RAIN SHIELD WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY FROM SUN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN
UPPER DISTURBANCE WEAKENS AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
THE COOLING TREND OVER THE WEST SHOULD BRING HIGHS GENERALLY 5-10F
BELOW NORMAL WITH LOCALLY COOLER READINGS. MODESTLY NEGATIVE
ANOMALIES WILL LIKELY REACH THE PLAINS BY NEXT THURSDAY. AHEAD OF
THE DEVELOPING PLAINS SYSTEM, CONTINUE TO EXPECT VERY WARM TEMPS
WITH A BROAD AREA OF 15-30F+ ANOMALIES THAT SHOULD BE MORE
EXPANSIVE FOR MORNING LOWS VERSUS DAYTIME HIGHS. BEST POTENTIAL
FOR DAILY RECORDS SHOULD BE FOR WARM LOWS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY SUNDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AND HIGHS OVER THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF THE COUNTRY AROUND TUE. THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER
THE NORTHEAST WILL KEEP THAT AREA CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR HIGHS
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
ROTH/RAUSCH
(Day 3 PMDEPD: Valid 03/14/2016 to 03/18/2016)
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1117 AM EST FRI MAR 11 2016
VALID 12Z MON MAR 14 2016 - 12Z FRI MAR 18 2016
...OVERVIEW...
UPPER RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE WEST COAST NEXT WEEK
WHILE BROAD TROUGHING CARVES OUT FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE CENTRAL
U.S.. WITHIN THE MEAN FLOW...SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO LIFT
FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON
MONDAY...BUT THEN THE FOCUS OF THE FORECAST WILL SHIFT UPSTREAM AS
AN UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST EARLY IN THE
WEEK ENCOUNTERS A MEAN RIDGE OVER EASTERN CANADA AND CLOSES OFF A
POTENTIALLY SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW NEAR THE GREAT LAKES BY THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
...GUIDANCE EVALUATION...
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
LARGE SCALE EVOLUTION OF THE FLOW OVER THE LOWER 48 NEXT
WEEK...BUT ARE STILL SHOWING SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BOTH
WITH STRENGTH/LOCATION OF THE UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF NEAR THE GREAT
LAKES AND WITH THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE RIDGE IN THE WESTERN U.S..
THE WPC FORECAST WAS LARGELY BASED OFF THE GEFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE
MEANS SINCE A BLEND OF THE TWO OFFERED A GOOD COMPROMISE BETWEEN A
MUCH STRONGER GFS/UKMET AND WEAKER ECMWF/CMC CLOSED LOW OVER THE
GREAT LAKES...AND THE MEANS ALSO APPEARED TO BE A GOOD MIDDLE
GROUND BETWEEN THE SHARPER/MORE AMPLIFIED ECMWF AND BROADER/LESS
AMPLIFIED RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE WEST. SLIGHTLY MORE WEIGHT WAS
GIVEN TO THE GEFS MEAN...SINCE IT HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT THAN
THE ECWMF WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE LOW CLOSING OFF OVER THE GREAT
LAKES.
GERHARDT
...SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...
PROGRESSIVELY DRIER IN THE WEST AS RIDGING BUILDS MID-LATE WEEK.
CENTRAL/NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL SEE RAIN/SNOW AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH MON-TUE WITH MODEST AMOUNTS/ACCUMULATIONS. NORTHERN THEN
SOUTHERN AREAS OF THE CENTRAL/EASTERN STATES WILL SEE RAIN/SNOW
EXPAND EASTWARD AND SOUTHWARD AS THE FRONT SLOWLY BUT STEADILY
PROGRESSES ALONG. WITH MILD TEMPERATURES IN THE EAST -- 10-20F
ABOVE CLIMO -- SNOW SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN
SIDE OF ANCHORING SFC LOW. RECORD HIGH MAXIMA AND ESPECIALLY
MINIMA ARE QUITE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS MAY
VERY WELL BE ABOVE AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES. PRECIP WILL LIKELY
BLOSSOM THROUGH THE GULF STATES LATER IN THE WEEK AS LOWER LEVEL
SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGS IN MORE MOISTURE ATOP THE SLOWING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY.
FRACASSO
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