Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
200 AM EST Sun Nov 16 2025

Valid 00Z Mon 17 Nov 2025 - 00Z Mon 24 Nov 2025

...Wet pattern to develop over the islands this week...

Trades will continue to weaken for the next couple of days as the
supporting surface high to the northeast of the state loses 
influence. Guidance mass field solutions remain reasonably well 
clustered for much of the upcoming week, bolstering forecast 
confidence. Tropical moisture will be pulled north to the state as
troughing at the surface and aloft settles over/west of the state
along with a slowed frontal approach from the northwest. This 
will fuel chances for enhanced rainfall Tuesday-Thursday. Trades 
and windward terrain rain pattern focus should uptick mid-later 
week as renewed high pressure bridges to the north of the state 
before possibly weakening again in less moist flow into next 
weekend. Possible upstream kicker upper trough and frontal 
approach may nudge the pattern and return moisture late period.

Schichtel