Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
135 AM EST Sat Nov 15 2025

Valid 00Z Sun 16 Nov 2025 - 00Z Sun 23 Nov 2025

Island trades will gradually weaken to more moderate to breezy 
levels heading through the weekend as the supporting surface high 
to the northeast of the state slowly loses influence.

By early through next midweek, guidance solutions have become 
better clustered, bolstering forecast confidence. Tropical 
moisture will be pulled north to the state as troughing at the 
surface and aloft settles over/west of the state. Recent GFS runs
and GEFS members have overall been aggressive with the troughing,
but latest runs are more in line with a moderate solution, albeit
still leading to high moisture levels coming into the state with 
enhanced rainfall chances focus Tuesday-Thursday. Trades and
windward terrain rain pattern focus should uptick for a few days
mid-later next week as renewed high pressure bridges to the north
of the state before possibly weakening again into next weekend.

Schichtel