Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
229 AM EST Wed Nov 19 2025

Valid 00Z Thu 20 Nov 2025 - 00Z Thu 27 Nov 2025

...Wet pattern developing over the islands...

Guidance mass field solutions remain reasonably well clustered 
for much of the upcoming week, bolstering forecast confidence. 
Tropical moisture is lifting over the state, especially the
eastern islands, as troughing at the surface and aloft settles 
over/southwest of the state along with a slow frontal approach 
from the northwest. This fuels chances for enhanced island 
downpours with focus today into Thursday. Trades and an 
increasing windward terrain rain pattern focus should uptick
through mid-late week as renewed high pressure bridges to the 
north of the state. Later, less certain upstream upper trough and 
frontal approach by Sunday may renew leading moisture return and 
rainfall potential in disrupted trades prior to system passage 
into early next week that may act to then ease moisture/showers.

Schichtel