Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
436 AM EDT Thu Oct 9 2025

Valid 00Z Fri 10 Oct 2025 - 00Z Fri 17 Oct 2025


Broad but weak southerly flow will be in place across Hawaii over
the next day or two, which could allow for land/sea breeze
conditions and scattered showers focusing over those convergence
areas. Winds should back to a more typical easterly trade
direction by the weekend as a midlevel high builds southeast of
the state while a weak surface ridge develops as well. Into next
week, an upper low is forecast to dive south toward Hawaii, which
will provide a rising inversion and increasing lift, while above
normal moisture comes in. This will yield increasing rain chances
especially for Kauai/Oahu around Monday to Wednesday. There is 
more model spread on when this upper low will retrograde and exit 
the state later week, with GFS/GEFS generally faster to move it 
out than the EC suite.