Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
347 AM EST Wed Nov 12 2025

Valid 00Z Thu 13 Nov 2025 - 00Z Thu 20 Nov 2025


Breezy to windy conditions are likely over the next couple of 
days as a surface high well north of Hawaii produces a tight 
pressure gradient for east-northeasterly trades. Some windward 
showers are possible in this pattern, especially across the Big 
Island and Maui eastern slopes per the HREF. By Friday, trades are
forecast to weaken a bit to more moderate to breezy levels as the
surface high weakens and moves east, lasting through the weekend.

By early next week, there is some model signal for tropical 
moisture to be pulled north as troughing at the surface and aloft 
produces southerly flow. However, there is uncertainty with 
whether this moisture plume will reach Hawaii or stay just south. 
Recent ECMWF and CMC runs keep the highest moisture south of the 
state, while the GFS maintains that ample moisture will be pulled 
well north and lead to potentially heavy rain around Monday- 
Tuesday. This also relates to a cold front northwest of the state,
which the GFS is mainly by itself in showing it sweep across the 
western islands by the middle of next week. GEFS and EC ensemble 
means have some increased QPF and moisture anomalies, but are more
muted than the GFS, and AI guidance is similar. So will continue 
to monitor trends and hopefully better model convergence to 
determine the pattern next week.


Tate