Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
303 AM EST Tue Nov 18 2025

Valid 00Z Wed 19 Nov 2025 - 00Z Wed 26 Nov 2025

...Wet pattern to develop over the islands this week...

Guidance mass field solutionsremain reasonably well clustered for
much of the upcoming week, bolstering forecast confidence. 
Tropical moisture will lift north into the state over the next 
couple of days as troughing at the surface and aloft settles 
over/southwest of the state along with a slow frontal approach 
from the northwest. This will fuel chances for enhanced island 
downpours with focus into Thursday. Trades and an increasing 
windward terrain rain pattern focus should uptick mid-late week 
as renewed high pressure bridges to the north of the state. 
Later, less certain upstream upper trough and frontal approach by 
Sunday may renew leading moisture return and rainfall potential 
again prior to system passage into early next week.

Schichtel