Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
238 AM EST Thu Nov 20 2025

Valid 00Z Fri 21 Nov 2025 - 00Z Fri 28 Nov 2025

...Wet pattern developing over the islands...

Model and ensemble solutions overall remain reasonably well 
clustered through the weekend into early week, bolstering 
forecast confidence. Tropical moisture now lifting over the state 
with troughing at the surface and aloft southwest of the state is 
fueling chances for some enhanced island downpours. Rebounded 
trades will additionally focusing activity into windward terrain 
into Friday as supporting high pressure shifts to the northeast of
the state and loses influence to allow for a weakening of trades 
through the weekend. Later, forecast spread has increased some 
with potential upstream upper trough and frontal approach toward 
the western islands next week. This may renew lead moisture return
and shower potential to monitor.

Schichtel