Skip Navigation Links 
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
The Weather Prediction Center



Follow the Weather Prediction Center on Facebook Follow the Weather Prediction Center on Twitter
NCEP Quarterly Newsletter
WPC Home
Analyses and Forecasts
   National High & Low
   WPC Discussions
   Surface Analysis
   Days ½-2½ CONUS
   Days 3-7 CONUS
   Days 4-8 Alaska
   Flood Outlook
   Winter Weather
   Storm Summaries
   Heat Index
   Tropical Products
   Daily Weather Map
   GIS Products
Current Watches/

Satellite and Radar Imagery
  GOES-East Satellite
  GOES-West Satellite
  National Radar
Product Archive
WPC Verification
   Medium Range
   Model Diagnostics
   Event Reviews
   Winter Weather
International Desks
Development and Training
WPC Overview
   About the WPC
   WPC History
   Other Sites
Meteorological Calculators
Contact Us
   About Our Site is the U.S. Government's official web portal to all federal, state, and local government web resources and services.
Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 1214Z Jul 14, 2018)
Version Selection
Versions back from latest:  0   1   2   3   4   5   6   7   8   9   10   
Abbreviations and acronyms used in this product

Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
814 AM EDT Sat Jul 14 2018

Valid 00Z Sun Jul 15 2018 - 00Z Sun Jul 22 2018

The models and the ensemble means are in good agreement in
portraying two strong, low level high pressure areas centered
roughly near 40 degrees north through this forecast period.  A col
is created within this ridge from a cold front crossing the
Aleutians and the north Pacific this weekend into Monday while
passing well to the north of the Hawaii domain.  At the mid
levels, an elongated upper level tropospheric trough centered just
north of the Islands this weekend is forecast to move west of the
state by the middle of the week, with an associated inverted
surface trough.  There should be a weak upper level ridge building
in from the east by the middle to end of next week.  The EC mean
is slightly faster with the westward progression of the trough
compared to the GEFS mean.

Precipitable water values will briefly be above normal due to the
mid/upper level trough interacting with a weak easterly wave this
weekend, thus increasing shower and thunderstorm chances.  Another
surge of deep moisture in association with a second easterly wave
is expected to pass just south of the Big Island by Thursday, and
this has been indicated in the model guidance for several days,
with drier conditions following behind it.  However, the greatest
concentration of convection is expected to remain over the open
waters of the central Pacific.

D. Hamrick