Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
329 AM EDT Sat Mar 25 2023
Valid 00Z Sun Mar 26 2023 - 00Z Sun Apr 2 2023
A large closed low and accompanying surface low develops northwest
of Hawaii this weekend, and this low slowly drifts eastward in the
general vicinity of 35 degrees north, and then lifts slowly
towards the northeast. The ensemble means are in decent agreement
on this scenario happening, with the GEFS mean a little more to
the east compared to the ECENS by Wednesday. This will likely
manifest as an occluded low with a trailing stationary front.
In terms of the trades, the flow should be generally from the east
through the weekend and then perhaps veering some to the southeast
as the region will be on the southwest periphery of the
subtropical high that'll be situated well to the northeast.
Multiple rounds of heavy rainfall will be possible for the far
northwestern Islands closer to the stationary front, but any
eastward trends in the guidance could put more of the state under
the potential for episodes of heavy rain next week.