Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
317 AM EDT Mon Aug 10 2026

Valid 00Z Tue 11 Aug 2026 - 00Z Tue 18 Aug 2026

The calm before the storm will characterize the start of this
period for the Hawaiian Islands. Through about 00Z Sat Aug 15, the
islands will be in a common pattern of the northeast trades
occasionally advecting afternoon showers into the northeast facing
sides of the islands. 

Come this weekend, however, all eyes will be on the track of the
tropical disturbance CP93. The National Hurricane Center has this
disturbance with a 90% chance of developing into a tropical
cyclone through this week period. The track of CP93 will be
critical, and unfortunately the Hawaiian Islands are right in the
middle of the guidance suite as to where the center of the storm
will track. Thus, it appears likely that there will be impacts
from this storm this weekend. The track of the storm as it makes
its closest approach to the islands will be the determining factor
as to how significant the impacts will be. Fortunately the islands
are a rather small target, so it's still far more likely that the
worst effects of the storm will remain offshore. Nonetheless, the
typical impacts from a nearby tropical cyclone can be
expected...likely for all the islands (though that too depends on
track). These include heavy rain causing flash flooding, gusty
winds capable of causing damage to infrastructure, storm surge,
and a low likelihood of tornadoes. Thus, it will be very prudent
to keep an eye on the forecast in the coming days for the latest
updates.

Guidance is in good agreement that the storm continues westward
away from the islands either Sunday or Monday (depending on which
piece of guidance you like), which will return the islands to
quiet weather by the end of the period, and likely sooner. There
of course is large variability as to how quickly the storm leaves
the vicinity of the islands, so that too is a low confidence
aspect of the forecast that will be refined in the coming days.

&&

Wegman