Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
The Weather Prediction Center

 
 

 

Follow the Weather Prediction Center on Facebook Follow the Weather Prediction Center on Twitter
NCEP Quarterly Newsletter
WPC Home
Analyses and Forecasts
   National High & Low
   WPC Discussions
   Surface Analysis
   Days ½-2½ CONUS
   Days 3-7 CONUS
   Days 4-8 Alaska
   QPF
   PQPF
   Flood Outlook
   Winter Weather
   Storm Summaries
   Heat Index
   Tropical Products
   Daily Weather Map
   GIS Products
Current Watches/
Warnings

Satellite and Radar Imagery
   Satellite Images
   National Radar
Product Archive
WPC Verification
   QPF
   Medium Range
   Model Diagnostics
   Event Reviews
   Winter Weather
International Desks
Development and Training
   Development
WPC Overview
   About the WPC
   Staff
   WPC History
   Accomplishments
   Other Sites
   FAQs
Meteorological Calculators
Contact Us
   About Our Site
 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official web portal to all federal, state, and local government web resources and services.
 
Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 1353Z Dec 13, 2017)
 
Version Selection
Versions back from latest:  0   1   2   3   4   5   6   7   8   9   10   
 
Abbreviations and acronyms used in this product


Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
853 AM EST Wed Dec 13 2017

Valid 00Z Thu Dec 14 2017 - 00Z Thu Dec 21 2017

A cold front is currently moving through Hawai'i and will bring
scattered showers to the region. An upper trough to the
north/northeast will form an upper low around 151W by tomorrow and
then slowly drift west-northwestward into the weekend, just to the
north of Hawai'i. By Sunday the upper low should lift northward
and become absorbed into a a trough axis to the north. That trough
may close off an upper low on its southwest tail just to the north
or northwest of the region next Tuesday. 00Z ECMWF/Canadian were
preferred with their handling of the closed low - a weaker one
near 24N/160W and a stronger one around 37N/150W by 00Z/20 rather
than just one per the 00Z-06Z GFS.

Behind the front today, breezy northwest winds will bring in drier
and cooler air and veer to the north and northeast tomorrow when
winds may exceed 30 kts with higher gusts. As the closed low
approaches from the east, moisture will wrap back around the
surface low from the north but the heaviest rain on the east side
of the upper low will remain displaced to the northeast of the
region.

The next upper trough or upper low next week has the potential for
much more precipitation given the location to the west of the
region. 00Z ECMWF indicates the potential for several inches of
rain over some of the islands while the GFS was drier given its
lack of a defined feature. 00Z ECMWF ensembles show a probability
of at least an inch of precipitation exceeding 30% in the 72 hrs
ending 00Z/21. Again, prefer a solution near the 00Z Canadian and
ECMWF.


Fracasso