Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
326 AM EDT Fri Mar 24 2023
Valid 00Z Sat Mar 25 2023 - 00Z Sat Apr 1 2023
A low pressure system initially north of Hawaii is forecast to
continue tracking northeastward away from the state and weaken
over the next couple of days. Meanwhile, a larger closed low and
accompanying surface low develops northwest of the states going
into the weekend and this low slowly drifts eastward in the
general vicinity of 35 degrees north, and then may stall near 165
degrees west by Tuesday. The ensemble means are in decent
agreement on this scenario happening, with the GEFS mean a little
more to the south compared to the ECENS. This will likely
manifest as an occluded low with a trailing stationary front.
In terms of the trades, the flow should be generally from the east
through the weekend and then perhaps veering some to the southeast
as the region will be on the southwest periphery of the
subtropical high that'll be situated well to the northeast.
Multiple rounds of heavy rainfall will be possible for the far
northwestern Islands closer to the stationary front, but any
eastward trends in the guidance could put more of the state under
the potential for episodes of heavy rain next week.