Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
350 AM EDT Wed Jul 24 2024

Valid 00Z Thu Jul 25 2024 - 00Z Thu Aug 01 2024

Retrograding high pressure along 40N latitude will support trades
through the period with mostly windward/mountain focus for
showers. Expect windy conditions mid-late week when the surface
high will be strongest, followed by some decrease in wind speeds
during the weekend and then a further weakening next week as the
high continues westward. Latest guidance still shows an area of
enhanced moisture crossing the area through midweek and starting
to depart on Thursday. Drier conditions should prevail from late
week into next week, with the combination of lower precipitable
water values and upper ridging over or near the region helping to
keep rainfall fairly light. However there are some developing
differences among the guidance with PWATs from the weekend onward,
with the 00Z ECMWF/12Z ECens mean trending somewhat higher than
the GFS/GEFS. This may correspond to the 00Z ECMWF in particular
being a little more amplified than consensus with east-west
troughing that slowly deepens north of the state.

Rausch