Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
337 AM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Valid 00Z Mon 17 Aug 2026 - 00Z Mon 24 Aug 2026

Hurricane Lala is currently just to the southwest of the Big 
Island of Hawaii as of the latest advisory with significant 
rainfall and tropical to hurricane force winds impacting the Big 
Island and Maui with tropical storm force winds extending out to
the western most islands over the past 6 hrs. Significant, life-
threatening flash flooding from torrential rains are ongoing for
the Big Island and Maui with some areas well over 15" of rainfall
as the latest obs. For more information on Hurricane Lala and 
expected impacts from the tropical cyclone, please visit the 
National Hurricane Center for the latest on the storm as it
steadily pushes westward near the island chain over the next 24-36
hours. 

Significant impacts will continue, even with the backside of the 
storm as trailing bands of heavy rainfall in its wake will provide
additional rain on top of some extreme totals that have already
transpired over the area. We will finally see the impacts cease,
or at least become more tempered as we step into Monday as Lala
continues to push westward into the open Pacific. Once Lala clears
the island chain, the expectation is a return to a predominant 
northeast trade wind setup with passing showers on the windward 
side of the islands leading to additional rainfall over top what 
will be very saturated grounds in wake of Lala. The next several 
days will provide heightened threats of flash flooding compared to
normal, so please be sure to monitor the local forecast from the 
Honolulu WFO for the latest.

Another potential tropical cyclone could develop well downstream
of the island chain by the end of the period with current ensemble
means indicating another surface low with a westerly trajectory
over the Eastern Pacific that could end up being something to 
monitor for the extended. The National Hurricane Center has this
area at a 50% probability of a tropical cyclone formation over the
next 7 days with consensus likely on development by the end of the
week into next weekend. This is a very fluid situation, but as 
the Eastern Pacific remains active, the threat for future impacts 
remains valid. 

Kleebauer